Table Of ContentAngang Hu · Yilong Yan
Xing Wei
China 2030
China 2030
Angang Hu (cid:129) Yilong Yan (cid:129) Xing Wei
China 2030
Angang Hu Yilong Yan
Center for China Studies Institute of Education and Researcher
School of Public Policy and Management Institute for Contemporary China Studies
Tsinghua University Tsinghua University
Beijing , China Beijing , China
Xing Wei
School of Public Policy and Management
Tsinghua University
Beijing , China
ISBN 978-3-642-31327-1 ISBN 978-3-642-31328-8 (eBook)
DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-31328-8
Springer Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London
Library of Congress Control Number: 2014936738
© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014
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Contents
1 Brief Introduction ..................................................................................... 1
2 China’s Dream and Roadmap ................................................................. 3
China’s Dream: Common Prosperity and a Harmonious World ................ 4
China: A Society with Common Wealth .................................................... 9
Common Prosperity for China and the World ............................................ 9
Co-existence and Prosperity Between Man and Nature ............................. 10
China’s Roadmap ........................................................................................ 11
Logic of China’s Development ................................................................... 13
Theme and Structure of the Book ............................................................... 15
References ................................................................................................... 17
3 A World of Common Prosperity ............................................................. 19
A Golden Period for the Global Economy .................................................. 21
Period of Global Industrial Restructuring ................................................... 25
Intensi fi cation of International Economic Integration ................................ 26
Global S&T Revolution and Competition in Innovations .......................... 30
Period of Global Population Aging and Urbanization Acceleration .......... 32
Global Green Revolution and Green Energy .............................................. 34
Brief Summary: Toward a World of Common Prosperity .......................... 36
References ................................................................................................... 40
4 World Economic Power ............................................................................ 43
World’s Largest Economy .......................................................................... 44
Largest Consumer Market in the World ..................................................... 49
Largest Modern Industrial System in the World ......................................... 51
Largest Urban Population in the World ...................................................... 55
World’s Largest and Most Modern Infrastructure ...................................... 57
Summary: Toward a World Economic Power ............................................ 59
References ................................................................................................... 60
5 The World’s Strongest Innovative Power ............................................... 63
A World Leader in Human Resources ........................................................ 65
v
vi Contents
A Strong Power in Knowledgeable and Skilled People .............................. 68
A Strong Power in S&T Innovation ............................................................ 72
Strongest IT Development Power in the World .......................................... 77
Summary: China Will Be a Strong Innovative World Power ..................... 78
References ................................................................................................... 79
6 High-Welfare State ................................................................................... 81
High-Income Country ................................................................................. 82
High Education Levels ................................................................................ 85
A Healthy State ........................................................................................... 89
A Country with High Human Development ............................................... 93
Summary: Toward a High-Level Human Welfare State ............................. 96
References ................................................................................................... 97
7 A Society with Shared Wealth ................................................................. 99
Common Wealth Shared by Both Urban and Rural Areas ......................... 101
Common Prosperity Among Different Regions ......................................... 103
Equalization of Basic Public Services ........................................................ 106
Summary: Toward a Common Wealth Society .......................................... 112
References ................................................................................................... 114
8 Green China .............................................................................................. 117
A Superpower of Forest Surpluses and Carbon Sink .................................. 119
A Country of Harmony Between Its People and Water .............................. 121
A Country with Clear Water and Blue Sky ................................................ 125
Concerted Efforts to Make China a Beautiful Homeland ........................... 126
World’s Largest Green Energy Nation ....................................................... 128
A Country of Low-Carbon Green Development ........................................ 132
Summary: Toward Green Modernization ................................................... 135
References ................................................................................................... 139
9 Concerted Efforts Toward Great Harmony ........................................... 141
Common Wealth Society ............................................................................ 142
“World of Great Harmony” ........................................................................ 146
Humanity’s Right Way ............................................................................... 151
References ................................................................................................... 153
Chapter 1
Brief Introduction
A great nation has a great dream; a great country has a great dream. China’s dream
is to build a society of common prosperity and a world in which all people live
together in peace and harmony. China did not begin its journey toward this great
dream until after the founding of the New China, more so after its reform and opening
up. The Chinese people will come close to realizing this great dream by 2030.
T his book provides predictions up to 2030 regarding the future major developments
and trends of both China and the world in general from a historical and worldwide
perspective. It analyzes the impact of interactions between China and the rest of the
world using a strategic view and a specialized study of national and international
conditions. By carrying forward the spirit of Chinese culture and spreading the
socialist theory of common prosperity, this book spells out the dreams of all mankind
in the pursuit of common prosperity. It also offers China’s vision and perspective
to the world, as well as Chinese scholars’ perspective on and worldwide vision for
the future.
T he year 2030 will see China become a country with a population of more than
a billion people, sharing prosperity, national power and a beautiful homeland. China
will become a world economic power in the real sense of the term, with a GDP
aggregate 2.0–2.2 times that of the United States, and its human development index
3.2 times greater. It will become a green homeland, with blue skies, clear water and
beautiful landscapes.
The year 2030 will witness more than 200 countries and regions, and more
than 8 billion people embark on a road to universal harmony. The whole world will
experience unprecedented development; the south and the north will experience
unprecedented convergence and the north–south divide will undergo an exceptional
reversal, further infl u encing the shift in the main development indicators, which
have gone from 30:70 (20–30 years ago) to 50:50 (present day), and are predicted
to be at 70:30 (in another 20–30 years).
As predicted by Mao Zedong, “Peace would then reign over the world, with all
people under heaven to share the same warmth and cold.”
A. Hu et al., China 2030, DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-31328-8_1, 1
© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014
Chapter 2
China’s Dream and Roadmap
Fraternity, equality and justice
– This is a world of great universal harmony.
KangYouwei(1913)
Fifty yearsago,ComradeMaoZedongpointedoutprophetically,“Thenext fifty
(2012) orhundredyears(2062)fromnowwillbeanepicperiodoffundamental
change inthesocialsystemoftheworld,anearth-shakingperiod,withwhichno
pasteracanbecompared.…Livinginsuchaperiod,wemustbepreparedtocarry
outgreatstruggles,differinginmanyrespectsfromtheformsofstruggleofprevious
periods” (MaoZedong 1999a). Threeearth-shatteringeventsthentookplacein
China inthelatterhalfofthetwentiethcenturyandthesechangesexceededany
previous historicalevents.The first significant eventwasthefoundingofaNew
China.TheChinesepeoplestoodupandasocialistsystemwasestablished,withthe
peoplebecomingthemastersoftheircountryforthefirsttimeinhistory.Thesecond
majoreventwastheestablishmentofanindependentandcompleteindustrialsystem
andanationaleconomicsystemin1949–1978.Thispavedthewayinstitutionally,
in humanresourcesandindustries,forthesubsequentreformandopeningupof
China.Thethirdmajoreventwasthereformandopeningupafter1978,whichfully
realizedChina’sproductivity,offeringChina’speopleabetterstandardofliving.
Likewise, furtherearth-shatteringchangeswilloccurinthe first halfofthe
twenty-first century.Chinawillaccomplishafurtherthreemajorundertakings
that willenablethecountrytorealizefullmodernizationbythemiddleofthe
century.Itwillbecomeawealthy,strong,democratic-socialistcountrywithahigh
levelofcivility,andwillgoontocreatenewmiracles.Thefirstmajorundertaking
is tobuildacomprehensiveandprosperoussocietyinthe first 20yearsofthis
century. Thesecondistoconstructasocietywithcommonprosperityby2030.
Thisstageisadevelopmentalonethatwillbuildthefoundationsofthethirdstage.
Itistheinevitableextensionofaprosperoussocietyandalsoaninevitablepathto
complete modernization.Thethirdundertakingistorealizecompletesocialist
modernization.
A.Huetal.,China 2030, DOI10.1007/978-3-642-31328-8_2, 3
©Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg2014
4 2 China’sDreamandRoadmap
Theworldwillalsoundergotremendouschangesinthefollowingdecades.Great
developmentwilloccurastheworldholdsitslargesteverpopulationandengages
inamultitudeofeconomicactivities.Thesefactorswillreversethecurrentunequal
structure ofinternationalplayersandtheglobalorderdominatedbyjustafew
Western powers.Forthe first timeinhumanhistory,therewillappearasceneof
commondevelopment,commonprosperityandcommonprogressamongthemore
thaneightbillioncitizensoftheworld.Theremarkablechangesthatwilltakeplace
inChinaareboundtotriggerfurthersignificantchangesworldwide,whichwill,in
turn, stimulateandpromotechangesinChina.Thegeneralorientationofthese
changeswillbetowardaharmoniousworld.
China’s Dream: Common Prosperity and a Harmonious World
Greatnationsandcountriesneedgreatdreams.Eachnationandcountryhasdiffer-
entdreamsduringdifferenteras.Chinaanditspeoplehavealwayshadagreatdream
andhavebeenpursuingitconstantlytorealizeitsfulfillment.
More than2000yearsago,ConfuciusvisualizedadreamforChinaof“great
harmony”anda“prosperoussociety”.Heperceivedanidealsocietyasbeing:
Whentheperfectorderprevails,theworldislikeahomesharedbyall.Virtuousandworthy
men areelectedtopublicof fice, andcapablemenholdpostsofgainfulemploymentin
society;peaceandtrustamongallmenarethemaximsofliving.Allmenloveandrespect
theirownparentsandchildren,aswellastheparentsandchildrenofothers.Thereiscaring
fortheold;therearejobsfortheadults;therearenourishmentandeducationforchildren.
Thereisameansofsupportofwidows,andthewidowers;forallwhofindthemselvesalone
intheworld;andforthedisabled.Everymanandwomanhasanappropriateroletoplayin
thefamilyandsociety.Asenseofsharingdisplacestheeffectsofselfishnessandmaterialism.
Adevotiontopublicdutyleavesnoroomforidleness.Intriguesandconnivingforillgain
areunknown.Villainssuchasthievesandrobbersdonotexist.Thedoortoeveryhome
needneverbelockedandboltedbydayornight.Thesearethecharacteristicsofanideal
world,aworldofgreatharmony.1
Confuciusviewedaharmoniousworldasa“utopia.”Therealworldhastobea
“prosperous”society,justshortofaworldofgreatharmony.
Despite thefactthatthroughouthistoryChinahasbeencarvedupbyvarious
Westernpowersandhasexperiencedsignificantdecline,theChinesepeoplehave
never givenuptheirpursuitoftheirgreatdream.KangYouweireaf firmed and
furtherdevelopedtheage-olddreamof“greatharmony”whenhesaidthatdevel-
opedcapitalismwasnottheultimategoalofhumanity,butwasratherastagecloser
topeace,whichisthenfollowedbyahigherstageofsocialdevelopment;thatis,a
worldofgreatharmonyisonewhereallboundariesanddifferencesareeliminated
(including thenineboundariesbetweenstates,classes,races,gender,families,
property, animalsandman,professions,ruralandurbanareas,andmountainous
1“BookofSites:LiYun”.
