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European Research on Climate Change Funded by the Seventh Framework Programme Research and Innovation EUROPEAN COMMISSION Directorate-General for Research and Innovation Directorate I – Environment Unit I.4 – Climate Change & Natural Hazards Contact: Estelle Barrillon E-mail: [email protected] [email protected] European Commission B-1049 Brussels EUROPEAN COMMISSION European Research on Climate Change Funded by the Seventh Framework Programme 2013 Directorate-General for Research and Innovation EUROPE DIRECT is a service to help you find answers to your questions about the European Union Freephone number (*): 00 800 6 7 8 9 10 11 (*) Certain mobile telephone operators do not allow access to 00 800 numbers or these calls may be billed LEGAL NOTICE Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which might be made of the following information. The views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of the European Commission. More information on the European Union is available on the Internet (http://europa.eu). Cataloguing data can be found at the end of this publication. Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union, 2013 ISBN 978-92-79-31251-9 doi:10.2777/30474 © European Union, 2013 Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged. Cover image : © Sergey Nivens, #33443008, 2012. Source: Fotolia.com INTRODUCTION Climate change is arguably among the most about climate change and lead to the estab- pressing societal challenges of our times, lishment of the IPCC in 1988. Since then, Eu- and now certainly the most well-known ropean research provided essential contribu- amongst the public. From initial observations to its regularly published assessment tions of global warming and proposed ideas reports. about the root causes, a steady consensus has built up that climate change is one of Climate change research has grown consid- the most serious threats facing the world in erably in size and complexity. FP5 (1998– the near future. It is very clearly stated in 2002) supported a large number of projects the recently released 5th Assessment Report within the specific ‘key action’ on ‘Glob- of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate al Change, Climate and Biodiversity’. FP6 Change (IPCC) on the physical science basis, (2003-2008) supported 31 large projects on that global warming is mostly caused by hu- climate change, with research areas ranging man activities. from atmospheric pollutants to the predic- tion of climate change and its impacts.. Climate change research: its European roots Climate change in the Seventh Framework Programme for research Climate sciences have an illustrious Europe- (FP7, 2007-2013) an history. In the 19th century, Germany’s Wladimir Köppen laid the foundations for Climate research has been one of the main climatology, while the French mathemati- research themes of FP7 with one of its cian Joseph Fourier (1768 – 1830) postu- ‘Theme’, i.e. ‘Environment (including climate lated the natural greenhouse warming effect change)’ which includes it explicitly in the ti- and speculated that human behaviour could tle. Actions have supported research projects change a regions climate. Swedish Nobel that analyse pressures on the environment Prize winner Svante Arrhenius made the (oceans, atmosphere, and ecosystems) and first, and amazingly realistic, calculations in improve our understanding of the complex 1896 on how changes in the levels of car- climate system, also through Earth System bon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere could modelling. Another key research area includ- alter the temperature of the Earth’s surface. ed assessing impacts, vulnerabilities and In the 1930s the British scientist Guy Stew- solutions for adapting to climate change, de- art Callendar demonstrated that global land veloping strategies for disaster risk reduction temperatures had increased over the pre- and analysing pathways for a smooth tran- vious 50 years and showed that this could sition to a low-carbon society. While some have been caused by anthropogenic CO2 calls are still open and a final figure cannot emissions. yet be given, a rough estimation indicates Research into the Earth’s climate system has that from 2007 to 2013 in FP7 over 800 Mil- been present in the EU’s Framework Pro- lion Euro were spent on supporting climate grammes from the beginning. In the 1980s change research. The majority of the funding the focus was on the ozone depletion in the was provided for collaborative research proj- stratosphere and EU-projects played an im- ects within the ‘Cooperation’ programme1 , portant role for the global ban of the pro- complemented by other funding for research duction of Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and infrastructures for climate observations and other ozone depleting substances (Montreal modelling and for investigator-driven ‘fron- protocol). Meanwhile, the increasing concen- tier’ research awarded by the European Re- tration of greenhouse gases raised concerns search Council2 (ERC). 1 = http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/cooperation/home_en.html I 2 = http://erc.europa.eu/ Research activities on climate change rep- search has focused on the observations and resents only a relatively minor part of what simulation of Earth System processes at dif- we can name as “climate-related” research. ferent scales, determining and understand- In fact, much more has been done in view of ing climate variations of the past, as well as developing a low carbon economy, through on the production of reliable projections of activities funded by the Framework Pro- future change. The results were used in the gramme notably in the areas of energy, IPCC reports and other assessments sup- transport, agriculture, industrial and infor- porting decision-making and have provided mation technologies which contribute to the information of great value for many so- identification and development of mitigation cio-economic sectors across Europe. Studies options through progress on energy efficien- of single or combined critical ocean/atmo- cy, renewable energy, low carbon manufac- sphere/land interactions have been conduct- turing processes and more environmentally ed in different climate regions (e.g. Arctic, friendly transport systems. Mediterranean, North Atlantic) in Europe and worldwide. Whenever significant, focus has International cooperation has been an im- been given to processes affecting reversibil- portant element of FP7. Participation in FP7 ity and triggering abrupt changes. Substantial was in fact open to all countries worldwide, improvements in the Earth system models with many Third countries (especially de- have allowed to obtain more accurate climate veloping ones and those with economies in projections at seasonal-to-decadal time transition) also eligible for funding. For the scales, and to reduce uncertainties in the pre- projects presented in this catalogue, partic- diction of climate change for future decades. ipation of institutions from non-European countries amount to approximately 9,5% of Robust and long-term climate observations the total number of project partners, while fi- are crucial to the production and validation nancial contribution from FP7 to these coun- of reliable predictions. It is an essential part tries represent even 14% of total spending. of the EU’s research policy to support infra- Key participating countries in this domain structures and their European and global include China, India, Brazil, Russia, USA, Can- integration. Networks of autonomous (EU- ada, South Africa, and Japan. RO-ARGO) or manned monitoring platforms (EURO-Fleets, ACTRIS) provide baseline Six research areas have been covered in this climate data as well as process studies. Sup- catalogue: port for networking, trans-national access and joint research has improved the perfor- 1. Climate observation, processes and pro- mance of distributed stations like InterAct, jections a circumpolar net of research facilities for 2. The carbon and nitrogen cycles and green- monitoring change in Arctic terrestrial eco- house gas emissions systems. FP7 also supported the preparation and implementation of essential infrastruc- 3. Atmospheric pollution and climate inter- tures identified in the ESFRI3 roadmap, like actions IAGOS (In-service Aircraft for a Global Ob- 4. Climate change impacts serving System), ICOS, the Integrated Car- 5. Climate related natural hazards and ex- bon Observing System, and the Svalbard treme events Integrated Observing System (SIOS). These 6. Climate change adaptation, mitigation and efforts, as well as dedicated projects focus- relevant policies sing for example on the oxygen depletion in the ocean (HYPOX) or capacity building (GEONETCAB), have contributed to the set- Climate observation, processes and up of the Global Earth Observation System projections of Systems (GEOSS). Climate observations and modelling have The ERC grants support frontier research been the main research pillars in FP7. Re- projects related to climate science, with 3 = European Strategy Forum on Research Infrastructures II focus on various aspects like biosphere-cli- The carbon and nitrogen cycles and mate interaction or the formation of small greenhouse gas emissions particles (aerosol) and clouds in the atmosphere. Several ERC projects attempt to Research on carbon cycle and other green- improve the reconstruction of atmospheric house gases has been an important com- CO2 concentrations, carbon cycling or tem- ponent in FP7 in order to fill key knowledge peratures thousands - or even millions - of gaps. Research actions have mainly focused years back in time which are fundamental on providing an improved quantitative as- for better projecting future change. sessment of the sources and sinks of carbon and/or nitrogen in terrestrial ecosystems in Critical aspects of climate modelling such Europe and the Atlantic Ocean, assessing as missing or lacking understanding of key their vulnerability to climate change and processes in the atmosphere and the ocean human activities and better quantifying the have been successfully addressed via proj- impact of elevated carbon concentrations ects such as COMBINE (inclusion of pro- to ecosystems, such as ocean acidifica- cesses such as C-and N-cycle, sea-ice and tion. This effort led to the establishment of permafrost) and EUCLIPSE (cloud model- high-quality, long-term observation systems ling), respectively. They offered new evalua- and to the development of state-of-the-art tion tools and climate simulations in support models that accurately capture carbon-cli- of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). mate interactions. Results have contributed These projects, as well as the climate model- to key international scientific assessments ling community in general, profited from the (e.g. IPCC) and programmes (Global Carbon EU support to the e infrastructure for the Eu- Project). Furthermore, particular emphasis ropean Network for Earth System Modelling was given to vulnerable ecosystems with (IS-ENES). high carbon and/or nitrogen content such a permafrost soils and tropical forests. Ocean acidification is one of the most critical aspects of the continuously increasing CO2 Another lighthouse project is NITROEUROPE concentrations in the atmosphere, due its which addressed the major question of what severe impacts on the ocean ecosystem. The is the effect of reactive nitrogen (Nr) supply EPOCA project, a major contributor to AR5, on net greenhouse gas budgets for Europe. has generated key information on ocean The project provided key elements to answer acidification including the rate at which it this question: proceeds and the hotspots where critical - A comprehensive new European Nitrogen pH values will be reached first. It assessed Budget (for EU27); the consequences of ocean acidification in - A more accurate estimate of the various terms of biodiversity, ecosystem services, war ming and cooling effects of Nr man- biogeochemical processes and feedbacks on agement in Europe; the climate system, and identified the most - A comprehensive cost-benefit analysis; vulnerable ecosystems. - An assessment of management options for more efficient management of the Another major achievement is the launch of nitrogen cycle, with recommendations to “European climate observations, modelling reduce the climate warming effects of Nr and services” (ECOMS) initiative focusing on losses and the provision of evidence base seasonal-to-decadal predictions and the de- for the design of environmental policies. livery of trustworthy climate information to stakeholders. ECOMS integrates three major projects respectively dealing with observa- Atmospheric pollution and climate tions (NACLIM), climate modelling (SPECS) interactions and climate services (EUPORIAS) and is a key European contribution to the WMO Glob- FP7 has significantly contributed to advance al Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). the understanding of the complex changes III in the composition of the atmosphere and tribution to the review of the EU’s air poli- the impact they have on the environment. cies due in 2013 through the publication of Research efforts have focussed on providing a summary of policy-relevant findings that sound scientific basis to combat the adverse was presented at the ‘2013 Green Week’ in effects we are facing, namely the warming Brussels. of the climate and the negative impact on health and ecosystems associated to air pollution. Results have contributed to the revi- Climate change impacts sion and implementation of EU Air policy and to reduce the uncertainties in the climate Climate projections indicate that our envi- models, in particular by better understanding ronment and society can be significantly af- the role of atmospheric aerosols and other fected in the medium to long-term. Impacts short lived pollutants and their precursors across the globe will be diverse, posing se- (including nitrogen oxides, volatile organ- vere challenges but also sometimes creat- ic compounds, sulphate, and black carbon). ing opportunities. They can span a variety Particular attention has also been given to of sectors, including agriculture, the water the development of integrated assessment cycle, land cover and vegetation, ecosys- tools for the design of emission abatement tems, the marine environment, health, etc. strategies taking into consideration relevant Climate change impacts concern not only the socio-economic aspects. natural environment, but also peoples’ liveli- hoods, and will challenge our socio-econom- The RECONCILE project is studying the de- ic system and structures. Relevant research pletion of ozone layer through dedicated seeks to assess the level and magnitude of laboratory and field measurements, work- potential impacts, to help us identify the ex- ing to improve model representations which tent and likelihood of expected changes. On can simulate and predict current and future the one hand, this information helps us un- Arctic stratospheric ozone loss. This project derstand our vulnerabilities and adaptation contributed to the observation and expla- needs; on the other, it also informs climate nation of the first ever Arctic ozone hole in policies, by identifying critical thresholds and 2011 when an area of very low stratospheric tipping points for our ecosystems and econ- ozone concentration, comparable to the loss omies. observed every year over Antarctica, oc- curred over the Arctic. The Impact2C project integrates the expertise of top climate scientists, impact specialists Air quality and climate change have tradi- with both scientific and economic backgrounds, tionally been viewed separately by scientists and local specialists from specific regions un- and politicians alike. Breaking with this tradi- der study. All are working to deliver maximum tion, the FP7 PEGASOS project assesses the support on the development of sectoral and impacts of European air pollution on climate cross-sectoral pan-European strategies for change and vice versa by combining field adapting to a 2°C global temperature rise. measurements at different heights with state of the art atmospheric and climate models. In addition to global impact assessments, Thanks to the unique flight characteristics of several FP7 projects have dealt with cli- the Zeppelin airship used by the project, the mate change impacts on specific sectors scientists had an unprecedented view of how and vulnerability hotspots. Among these, the pollution is distributed in the lowest one or CLIWASEC cluster, formed by the CLIMB, two kilometers of the atmosphere over Eu- WASSERMed and CLICO projects, focused rope. It is in this layer of the atmosphere that on water security in the Mediterranean re- most pollutants emitted on the ground react gion. The projects have provided a better with other atmospheric compounds. understanding of the hydrological budget and potential changes in the water balance PEGASOS, with other 20 projects related of specific catchments, and of more global to air quality, provided a very valuable con- impacts on key economic sectors and activi- IV ties. The ACQWA project focused on chang- Urban areas of European countries face in- es in the water cycle of mountain regions, creasing flood risks due to urbanisation and which can have huge implications both for the effects of climate change. The STAR- local economies and for downstream areas. FLOOD project focuses on the development In Europe, the project studied the Rhone (CH/ and implementation of appropriate and FR) and the Po catchment (IT). Results from resilient flood risk governance arrange- the project indicate a future decline in alpine ments in Europe, whereas FLOODCHANGE snow cover, as well as an increase in extreme investigates the drivers of flood generation. precipitation events. Relevant impacts, in This is assumed to require a diversification terms of climate-driven hazards, forests, of Flood Risk Management Strategies – in- hydropower generation, agriculture, tourism cluding flood defence, pro-active spatial and aquatic ecosystems were studied exten- planning, flood mitigation, flood preparation sively to provide a comprehensive overview and recovery. of future risks. Flash floods present a challenge for early The Ice2sea project set the challenge of re- warning systems, since heavy rainfalls are ducing uncertainty in the contribution of gla- hard to be forecasted with high accuracy ciers and ice-sheets to sea-level rise, which and enough anticipation to allow efficient the last IPCC report identified as a key prob- decision and risk management support. lem in projections. Over the past four years Research carried out under the European a team of scientists from 24 institutions project IMPRINTS has, however, produced the first Early Warning operational platform have worked together to find out how i.e. able to provide hydrological warnings based the Greenland ice-sheet responds to global on the rainfall forecasted by meteorological warming. Based on observations and ad- models (few days in advance) and by weath- vanced computer simulations they forecast- er radar networks (few hours in advance). ed how much ice the Greenland and Antarctic The platform is able to transform the antici- glaciers will release to the ocean within the pation provided by the rainfall forecasts into next 200 years. The project provided a de- hydrological forecasts, and also to combine tailed global map of the non-uniform con- these hydrometeorological forecasts with tribution of the glaciers to sea level rise and the available information about vulnerabil- thus a sound scientific foundation for policy ity and flooding risks, providing a full Early development surrounding sea-level rise and Warning System for Flash Flood and Debris the best possible basis for European coastal Flow risk management. defense planning. The enhanced understanding of drought processes and their impacts is another key area Climate related natural hazards and where FP7 funded research contributes. Rel- extreme events evant early warning indicators, assessment of drought risks and potential damages are Managing future risks related to climate particularly challenging to address, given change and developing strategies for di- the complexity of the phenomenon, such as saster risk reduction need to take into slow onset, the diverse impacts depending account the possible risk drivers. Antic- on the geoclimatic region and socio-eco- ipating, preventing, limiting the impacts nomic context, and the very different levels and managing these threats will contrib- of preparedness and coping capacity. The ute to a safer and more resilient society. Drought-R&SPI project seeks to better The projects presented in this publication characterise past and future droughts in Eu- illustrate some examples of the on-going rope, both as natural hazards and in terms interdisciplinary research collaboration of their impacts. It actively works for devel- that is addressing the challenges societies oping a successful science-policy interface, and populations will have to face with cli- which is providing support to a number of EU mate-related hazards. policies. V