Building Global Security Through Cooperation: Annals of Pugwash 1989

308 Pages·1990·28.93 MB·English

by  Richard Garwin (auth.)

Building Global Security
Through Cooperation
Building Global Security
Through Cooperation
Annals of Pugwash 1989
Edited by
J. Rotblat and J. P. Holdren
Springer-Verlag
Berlin Heidelberg New York London
Paris Tokyo Hong Kong Barcelona
Professor Dr. Joseph Rotblat
Pugwash, Flat A, Museum Mansions,
63A Great RusseII Street,
London WClS 3BJ, United Kingdom
Professor John P. Holdren
Energy & Resourees Group, 100 T-4,
University of California,
Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
ISBN-13: 978-3-642-75845-4 e-ISBN-13: 978-3-642-75843-0
DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-75843-0
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data. Building global security through cooperation : annals
of Pugwash 1989/ edited by J. Rotblat and J. P. Holdren. p. cm. Based on material presented at the 39th Pug
wash Confercnce, held in Cambridge, Massachusetts, from 23 to 28 July 1989. Includes bibliographical
references and index. ISBN 3-540-528!3·X (Berlin Heidelbcrg New York : acid-free paper) - ISBN
0-387-52813-X (New York Berlin Heidelberg : acid-free paper) I. Nuclear disarmament-Congresses. 2.
Chemical warfare (Internationallaw)-Congresses. 3. Security, International-Congresses. 4. International
cooperation-Congresses. 1. Rotblat, Joseph, 1908-. H. Holdren, John P. IH. Pugwash Conference on
Science and World Affairs (39th: 1989 : Cambridge, Mass.) JXI974.7.B815 1990 327.1'74-dc20
90-10194
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Preface
In the world of international affairs, 1989 was by any standard an extraordinary
year. Opening in an atmosphere of old perils and new opportunities in interna
tional relations, 1989 elosed as an undoubted watershed; the year in which the
Cold War as we had known it for 45 years carne to an end. Yet while much has
changed, much remains unfinished, unresolved, or not changed at all.
Thus, although the sweeping reforms and political restructuring in Eastern
Europe have essentially eradicated the ideological and political basis for the
Cold War, the bloated military forces of the East-West confrontation - nuclear
and chemical as well as conventional - have really only begun to be trimmed.
At this writing, in early 1990, there is still no START agreement, no treaty on
Conventional Forces in Europe, no formal restraint on nuelear weapons with
ranges below 500 kilometres, no prescription for protecting the ABM Treaty
against erosion by the mindless pursuit of new capabilities in space weaponry.
Moreover, even as the last vestiges of the rationale for the planned and ex
isting military forces drain out of the East-West relationship, these forces retain
trernendous potential to do harm - for example by unintended, perhaps virtually
automatie escalation from some modest local instability. We cannot rest, do not
dare succumb to complacency, until these arsenals actually have been disman
tled. The obstaeles in the way of that goal, alas, are still many. Prominent voices
on both sides warn against deep and rapid cuts, arguing that the future is unpre
dictable. Political and economic obstaeles materialise, as prescriptions for cuts
are seen to entail elosing of bases and factories in real communities full of real
people. In the Soviet Union, assimilation of demobilised officers and troops back
into civilian society is proving to be a major problem.
In the less developed countries of the South, horne to three quarters of the
world's population, the transformations of 1989 in East-West relations are no
watershed at all. The TOOtS of conflict in the South are, first of all, more di
verse, more deep-rooted, less tractable than in the North - a volatile mixture of
racial and religious hatreds, territorial disputes, frictions of emerging statehood,
and the frustrations of poverty, oppression, and manipulation in degrees scarcely
imagined by most inhabitants of industrialised nations. And while East-West rap
proachment may mean a reduction in competitive manoeuvering, manipulation,
and direct intervention in the South by the United States and the Soviet Union,
many in the South fear it will also mean reductions in development assistance
and, perhaps, diminished restraints on local belligerents.
VI Preface
There are additional reasons for supposing that threats to peace may grow
along South-South and North-South axes even as they are dwindling on the
East-West one. One is the rapid growth in size and sophistication of military ar
senals in the South - a trend that was once largely the work of industrial-country
arms exporters who sent weapons south for money or influence. While that still
goes on, it is being rapidly supplanted as the main factor by the emergence of
indigenous manufacturing capabilities and South-South trade in armoured ve
hic1es, supersonic aircraft, ballistic missiles, and the wherewithal for chemical
and nuc1ear weapons. The major powers in the North have dawdled for decades
without managing to achieve either a Chemica1 Weapons Convention or a Com
prehensive Test Ban on nuc1ear explosions, both of them vitally important for
stopping horizontal as well as verticaI proliferation of these c1asses of armaments;
the growing interest in such capabilities in the South is making pursuit of these
agreements both more urgent and more difficult.
Frustrations in the South arising from economic and environmental depriva
tion seem certain to grow in the years and decades ahead. The existing burden
of debt is a staggering drag on development prospects, and financial and techno
logical development assistance from the North remains a pathetically tiny triekle
into an ocean of need. Soils, forests, and groundwater are dwindling, while the
numbers of people who must be supported on these resources are growing - 90
million people per year worldwide, 90 per cent of them in the South. Global cli
mate change from accumulating greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will have its
severest effects in the South, where people have, at the outset, less 10 eat, poorer
health, worse medical care, and less capacity to adapt. What they will probably
experience from global c1imate change is more dry-season heat and drought;
more wet-season floods and storm victims; more pest outbreaks, famine, and dis
ease; and more environmental refugees streaming across international borders.
There will be a strong tendency to view the causes of all this as primarily the
responsibility of the North, by a southern majority already smoldering with re
sentment over a widening North-South prosperity gap they also regard as mostly
the North's fault. The implications for international tension and conflict are all
too clear.
The foregoing considerations suggest that the international security agenda
needs to be seen as containing three distinct albeit inter-related c1asses of prob
lems, or sub-agendas, which one could call the East-West Arms Control Agenda,
the North-South Arms-Control Agenda, and the Common-Security Agenda. All
three of these sub-agendas have been well represented in the deliberations of the
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs for many years, and they
are well represented in this volume, which draws particularly heavily on mate
rial presented at the 39th Pugwash Conference, Building Global Security Through
Cooperation, held in Cambridge, Massachusetts, from 23 to 28 July 1989.
The East-West Arms-Control Agenda focusses mainly on limiting offensive
and defensive strategie forces, space weaponry, and nuclear and conventional
forces in Europe and at sea, as well as on issues of East-West confidence build
ing, crisis avoidance, and crlsis control. It is covered in this volume in Part I,
Preface vn
Strategie Forees anti Their Limitation, and in Part II, European Seeurity. Al
though nearly as much remained to accomplish on this sub-agenda at the end of
1989 as at the beginning - if accomplishment is measured by actual agreements
- the progress during the year in terms of elimination of obstacles was, quite
obviously, unprecedented. Gone, almost overnight, is any semblance of a ratio
nale for the sizes and kinds of forces that have come 10 be arrayed against each
other by OOt and West. Gone, certainIy, is the basis for "flexible response" and
"extended deterrence" - that is, for "first use of nucIear weapons if necessary",
and for all the deployments intended to make that doctrine plausible - although
this change has not yet been officially conceded. Much work will still be needed
to bring about the reductions that are implied, but surely the momentum in this
direction will now become irresistible.
The problems on the North-South Arms-Control Agenda are more multilat
eral and more complicated, and the prospects of success are considerably more
uncertain. They incIude problems with strang East-West dimensions, such as
chemical weapons and nucIear testing, which, however, are inextricably entwined
with developments in the South; and they incIude problems of arms trade, in
tervention and non-intervention, and regional crisis management whose axes are
mainly North-South or South-South. These issues are discussed here in Part III,
Chemieal Weapons anti Their Control, Part IV, Nuclear Weapons Proliferation
anti Testing, Part V, The Anns Trade anti Regional Conflict, Part VI, Role 01
United Nations anti Multilateral Organizations in International Security, and in
Appendix B, Statement 01 the Pugwash Executive Committee on the F ourth NPT
Review Conlerence. The problems in these categories have tended until now 10
taJce a back seat to those on the East-West Arms-Control Agenda described above,
but to continue to keep them in this secondary status could be aprescription for
disaster. Two of the issues in particular - the need 10 achieve a Comprehensive
Test Ban proscribing nucIear explosions of all yields in all media, and the need
to block the transfer to the South of newly surplus weapons from the dwindling
East-West confrontation - will provide key tests of the insight and the will of
leaders in the North. (So far, the Bush administration has not conceded that a
CTB would be in the United States' interest; and no major power in the North
has been willing to forgo the monetary and political currency obtained from arms
transfers to the South.)
The issues we place on the Common-Security Agenda are those often de
scribed under the heading of "non-military aspects of security", incIuding mat
ters of trade, finance and debt; issues in scientific and technological cooperation;
and the intersection of problems of energy, environment, and development. The
Pugwash Conferences have played an important role in recent years in eluci
dating the connections between these questions and international security, and
in arguing that only a concerted, fully cooperative, international approach offers
any hope of preventing the problems in this category from undermining the long
term prospects for prosperity and security worldwide. These issues are treated in
this volume in Part vn, Energy-Environment-Development Interactions, in Part
VIII, East-West anti North-South Cooperation, and, together with all the other
VIII Preface
topics, in Appendix A, Statement of the Pugwash Council on the 39th Pugwash
Conference.
We elose thls preface, as we began it, with an observation on the significance
of the events of 1989. What brought about the transition in East-West relations
that became so dramatic and irreversible at the end of 1989, was above all, we
think, the recognition that pursuing security through East-West military compe
tition had been a complete failure - that it had provided only deelining security
and increasing danger, at escalating and finally intolerable econornic cost. It be
came a matter of the sheerest necessity, then, to replace the competitive-security
paradigrn with a cooperative-security approach, in order to shrink the danger and
to free for worthier purposes the resources and energies that the confrontational
approach had been consuming. What will be required to address successfully the
stil11arger security agendas of the 1990s and beyond - what we have here called
the North-South and Common-Security agendas - is the generalisation of this
same recognition to a global scale: the problems of East and West and North and
South are intertwined; what threatens one group threatens all; security can only
be gained through cooperation against those common threats. To understand this
and to act on it are the central challenges of our time. We hope this book will
make some contribution toward these ends.
The Editors wish to express their gratitude to Dr. David Carlton for help in
the editing of the book, and to Mrs. Sue England for assistance in the preparation
of the camera-ready copy.
London, Berkeley loseph Rotblat
August 1990 lohn P. Holdren
Contents
Part I Strategie Forees and Their Limitation
Prospects for Strategie Offensive and Defensive Forces
By Richard Garwin .......................................... 2
Reductions in Strategie Nuclear Warheads
By Frank Blackaby . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
The Role of "Glasnost" in the Future of the Anus Race
By Milo Nordyke . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Accidental Nuc1ear War
By Kurt Gottfried and Alexander George 33
Part II European Security
The Vienna Force Reduction Talks: Resolved and Unresolved Tasks
By Jonathan Dean ........................................... 50
Problems and Prospects for Negotiations on Short-Range Nuc1ear Forces
By Jane Sharp . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66
The Ideological Dimension of European Security
By Laszlo Valki ............................................. 73
Non-Military Aspects of European Security
By Klaus Gottstein . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75
Part III Chemical Weapons and Their Control
Chemical Weapons - Destruction, Conversion or Endless Debate?
By Karlheinz Lohs .... " . .. . . . . . . .. .. ... . . .. . . . .. . ... . . . . .. . 80
Destruction of Chemical Weapons
By Sven Lundin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82
An International Scientific Methodology for Verification
of Non-Production of Chemical Weapons
By Nikolai Enikolopov and Kirill Babievsky . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 85
The Chemical Weapons Convention:
Particular Concerns of Developing Countries
By Esmat Ezz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
X Contents
The Chemical Weapons Convention: A Different View
By Enrieo Jaeehia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102
Part IV Nuclear Weapons Proliferation and Testing
The Non-Proliferation Treaty:
Status of Implementation and the Threatening Developments
By Jozef Goldblat ........................................... 106
Beyond Non-Proliferation
By Bhalehandra Udgaonkar 117
The Linkage Between Non-Proliferation, Deterrenee Poliey,
Nuclear Testing and the Arms Raee
By Lawrenee Seheinman . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
Part V The Arms Trade and Regional Conflict
Recent Patterns of Arms Trade and Regional Conflict
By Saadet Deger . . . . ..... . . .. . .. . ... . .. . .. . .. . . .. . . . . . .. . .. . 138
The Arms Trade and Regional Confliet:
Suppliers' Policies and Behaviour and Their Consequenees
By Abdel Monem Said Aly ... ................................ 156
Socio-Economie Consequenees of Arms Transfers
By Vrrginia Gamba .......................................... 162
,Contral of the Arms Trade as a Contribution to Conflict Prevention
By Jasjit Singh . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
Part VI Role of United Nations and Multilateral Organizations
in International Security
The Role of the United Nations and Multilateral Organizations
in International Seeurity
By Onrran EI-Shafei ......................................... 180
Regional Organizations and Their Contribution to International Security:
The Case of ASEAN
By Muthiah Alagappa ........................................ 184
The Role of Regional Organizations in the Maintenanee
of Peaee and Seeurity in Latin Ameriea
By Julio Carasales ........................................... 199
Part VII Energy - Environment - Development mteraction
Lifestyles, Energy Choices and Development
By Jose Goldemberg ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 210
Coments XI
Broadening the Global Security Debate:
Regional and Global Dialogues on Environmental Issues
By Irving Mintzer ... . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 218
Development of Energy in China and Its Influence on the Environment
By Zhu Jiaheng and He Gulian . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 224
Part VIII East-West and North-South Cooperation
Trade and Finance: The Bitter Truth
By Anatoly Gromyko . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 232
New Approaches to South-South Cooperation
By Surendra Patel . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 241
A Decade of lotended Cooperation in Science and Technology -
The 1979 Vienna Programme of Action
By EssatIl Galal ............................................. 254
The Roles of Transnational Public and Private Mechanisms
By Hans-Peter Dürr .......................................... 262
Appendices
Pugwash Council: Statement on the 39th Pugwash Conference 278
Statement of the Pugwash Executive Committee
on the Fourth NPT Review Conference in 1990 .................... 284
AcronylDS ................................................... 287
Notes on the Contributors ..................................... 289
Subject Index 293