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BUDGET
ESTIMATES
FOR THE
UNITED STATES
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
FOR THE FISCAL YEAR ENDING
SEPTEMBER
30, 1991
A SEPARATE FROM THE BUDGET OF
THE UNITED STATES GOVERNMENT
1991
BUDGET
ESTIMATES
FOR THE
UNITED STATES
DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE
FOR THE FISCAL YEAR ENDING
SEPTEMBER
1991
30,
A Separate from the Budget ofthe United States Government
1991
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
U.S.
WASHINGTON:
1990
TABLE OF CONTENTS
SUMMARY MATERIALS Page
Advance Appropriations, Advance Funding, and
Forward Funding for 1991 A-1209
Baseline Estimates A-27
Budget Authority and Outlays by Department A-298
Civilian Employment in the Executive Branch A-77
Federal Programs by Functions A-145
Glossary of Budget Terms A-1231
Rescission ofBudget Authority A-1211
Statement ofAmendments to and Revisions in
Budget Authority for 1990 A-1210
Summary ofReceipts, Outlays, and Surpluses
or Deficits A-281
Supplementals A-1205
USDA Programs by Agency and Account A-173
ESTIMATES OF CURRENT APPROPRIATIONS IN DETAIL
Agricultural Cooperative Service A-513
Agricultural Marketing Service A-501
Agricultural Research Service A-442
Agricultural Stabilization and Conservation Service A-456
Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service ...A-496
Commodity Credit Corporation A-464
Cooperative State Research Service A-445
Departmental Administration A-436
Economic Research Service A-449
Extension Service A-446
Farmers Home Administration A-477
Federal Crop Insurance Corporation A-461
Federal Grain Inspection Service A-498
Food and Nutrition Service A-508
Food Safety and Inspection Service A-506
Foreign Agricultural Service A-451
Foreign Assistance Programs A-454
Forest Service A-514
iii
Page
General Provisions:
Department ofAgriculture A-528
Forest Service (Administrative Provisions) A-527
Governmentwide A-345
Human Nutrition Information Service A-512
National Agricultural Library A-448
National Agricultural Statistics Service A-448
Office ofInternational Cooperation and Development A-452
Office ofPublic Affairs A-440
Office of the General Counsel A-442
Office of the Inspector General A-441
Office of the Secretary A-435
Office ofTransportation A-506
Packers and Stockyards Administration A-513
Rural Electrification Administration A-471
Soil Conservation Service A-489
World Agricultural Outlook Board A-450
IV
A-28 THE BUDGET FOR FISCAL YEAR 1991
thority will terminate as scheduled. Only certain expir- estimates, even though the workload at the Census
ing programs identified in the G-R-H law are continued Bureau is anticipated to be less in 1991 than in 1990.
in the baseline.^ Provisions expiring after 1991, howev- The baseline, therefore, overstates anticipated Census
er, are assumed to continue in the baseline unless they outlays by about $1.0 billion.
are clearly temporary in nature. For subsidized housing, budget authority appropri-
Major programs scheduled to expire in 1991 and thus ated in 1990 reflects in part the renewal of more than
excluded from the baseline are presented in Table A-2. 42,000 multi-year contracts for subsidized housing first
The largest such program is food stamps. The food entered into in the 1970s. In 1991, nearly 295,000 of
stamp program and nutrition assistance to Puerto Rico, these contracts are anticipated to expire, a seven-fold
which are authorized by the Food Stamp Act of 1977, increase over the 1990 level. The baseline estimates, by
are scheduled to expire on September 30, 1990. If the merely inflating the 1990 level, include budget author-
baseline had assumed the extension of these two pro- ity that is about $6.6 billion below the amount needed
grams under current law, baseline outlays would have to renew these expiring contracts and maintain the
been $16.2 billion higher. Two Customs Service fees are current stock of subsidized housing. Because these are
generally multi-year commitments, however, the outlay
also scheduled to expire on September 30, 1990. Exclud- impact of understating the budget authority needed to
iR1en9cg9o1tnhcoeiusltielaaotyfisfosnbeyttA$ic0nt.g9robeficlel1iip9ont8.s9Af(rpOormBoRvtiAhseio1bn9a8si9en;litnPheuebiOlnimccnrieLabsauewss msiadienrtaabilny stmhaellceurr,reanbtoultev$e0l.4ofbislulbisoni.dized housing is con-
101-239) permitted the Federal Government to pay out Budget authority of $2.8 billion was appropriated in
1990 for disaster assistance to aid primarily the victims
retirees’ own retirement contributions in two lump-sum ofthe earthquake in San Francisco. This budget author-
payments over two years. This authority expires at the
ity is inflated in the baseline for 1991 through 1995.
end of the current fiscal year, requiring the Govern- Because these funds were provided in 1990 for specific
ment to pay lump-sum retirement benefits in one pay- disaster relief purposes, however, the baseline assumes
ment and thus increasing estimated baseline outlays by that no outlays are associated with this inflated disas-
$0.7 billion in 1991. ter reliefbudget authority in 1991 through 1995.
Finally, the totals for nondefense discretionary pro-
TableA-2. IMPACTOFMAJOREXPIRING PROVISIONSON BASELINEOUTLAYS grams include an aggregate spendout rate adjustment
(Inbillionsofdollars) required by the G-R-H law. This adjustment, which in-
1991estimate creases outlays by $0.1 billion in 1991 only, is discussed
in more detail in conjunction with the G-R-H sequester
FnnH -15.3 estimates.
Niitritinn aQ^i^tanrptnPiiprtn Ri«) -0.9 —
-0.1 Economic assumptions. The baseline estimates are
MiirlBarRpoiilatnrv fpp 0.1 based on the same economic assumptions as the Presi-
0.7 dent’s budget proposals. The economic assumptions
PiKtnm?f^ruirpfpp^ 0.9
assume that all the President’s budget proposals will be
adopted. Continuation of all programs and tax laws
— unchanged would result in different economic condi-
Discretionary programs. The baseline estimates for tions than would occur under the budget proposals.
both defense and nondefense discretionary programs Changes in economic conditions significantly affect
are based on the enacted 1990 appropriations level ad- budget estimates because of their effects on tax re-
justed for inflation and pay costs. This formula is con- ceipts, unemployment benefits, interest on the Federal
sistent with the G-R-H law. debt, and other programs where spending is sensitive to
By adjusting for the impact ofinflation and pay costs, economic factors. As a result, if different economic as-
the baseline estimates for discretionary programs gen- sumptions were used in developing the baseline and
erally reflect a continuation of the 1990 program level policy estimates, it would be very difficult to separate
in real terms. Anomalies may result, however, particu- the effects of policy differences from the effects of dif-
larly for programs that have sporadic or cyclical fund- ferences in the economic assumptions.
ing patterns. For instance, the Census Bureau received The economic assumptions common to the budget and
a larger than usual 1990 appropriation to fund the in- the baseline estimates are summarized in Table A-3. In
creased workload eissociated with conducting the decen- addition, the G-R-H law requires that the assumptions
nial census. This 1990 appropriation is automatically used for the real rate of growth for the last two quar-
inflated in developing the 1991 Census Bureau baseline ters of fiscal year 1990 and for each quarter of fecal
year 1991 be presented. These estimates are included in
Table A-4. For further details and discussion of the
fol*lTohwiengG-cRas-eHs:laexwciaslelotwasxefsordetdhiecactoendtitnouaatitornusitnftuhnedb(absuetlinneotofspeexnpdiirnigngauptrhoogrriatmysinintthhaet sensitivity of the estimates to the selected economic
trust fund); Commodity Credit Corporation price support programs; contract authority for assumptions, see “Note on Economic Assumptions and
transportationtrustfunds;andauthoritytoprovideinsurancethroughtheFederalHousing
Administrationfund. Sensitivities” in Section 'Two.
BASELINE ESTIMATES
A baseline presents budget estimates against which anomalies. For example, the baseline assumes that the
alternative budget proposals can be compared. In recent food stamp program, which expires at the end of 1990,
years, the Presiden—t’s budget has presented two sets of will not be renewed, while the 1990 decennial census
baseline estimates current services and those required will be repeated. After adjusting the baseline for the
by the Balanced Budget and Emergency Control Act of
impact of these two anomalies, administration propos-
R19u8d5m,aans-Haomlelnidnegds ionr 1G9-8R7-H()c.omTmoonalllyevkinatoewncoansfuGsiroanmmre-- als would reduce the baseline deficit by $37.4 billion in
sulting from multiple baselines, a single set of baseline 1991. Ifthe administration’s budget is scored on a G-R-H
estimates is presented here. This baseline conforms to basis, these 1991 savings are reduced by $0.9 billion.
G-R-H requirements, and thus will be used to determine Comparisons between the baseline and administration
whether automatic spending reductions are necessary budget under selected definitions are presented in more
to meet the 1991 deficit target set in the G-R-H law. detail in “Director’s Introduction to the New Budget”
This part describes the specific concepts used in de- in Section One.
veloping the baseline and discusses baseline receipt,
outlay, and budget authority estimates. The part also Relative to the adjusted baseline, cumulative deficit
discusses the G-R-H sequester estimates. reduction between 1991 and 1995 proposed by the ad-
Table A-1 compares baseline and administration ministration totals $319.4 billion, excluding payments
budget receipt, outlay, and surplus/deficit estimates for to the Social Security Integrity and Debt Reduction
1989 through 1995.^ The administration’s proposals Fund. These payments, which would begin in 1993, total
would reduce the baseline budget deficit by $21.6 billion $169.5 billion between 1993 and 1995. This proposal is
in 1991. As a result of meeting the strict requirements discussed in more detail in “Acknowledging Inherited
of the G-R-H law, however, the baseline reflects some Claims” in Section One.
TableA-1. BASELINEANDADMINISTRATION BUDGETTOTALS, 1989-1995
(Inbillionsofdollors)
Estimate
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 19!/5
Baselineestimates:
Receipts 990.7 1.072.8 1,156.3 1,234.9 1.323.5 1,401.9 14808
Outlays 1,142.6 1.194.8 1,241.0 1,290.4 1.343.6 1,394.0 1,4444
Surplusordeficit (—) -152.0 -122.0 -84.7 -55.5 -20.1 7.9 ' 36.3
Impactofadministrationpolicyproposals:
Receipts 0.6 13.9 11.4 4.1 6.7 56
Outlays 2.4 -7.7 -19.0 -21.8 40 325
Surplusordeficit (-) -1.8 21.6 30.4 25.9 2.7 -26.9
Administrationbudget:
Receipts 990.7 1,073.5 1.170.2 1,246.4 1,327.6 1,408.6 1,486.3
Outlays 1,142.6 1,197.2 1.233.3 1,271.4 1,321.8 1,398.0 1,476.9
Surplusordeficit (—) -152.0 -123.8 -63.1 -25.1 5.7 10.7 9.4
—
Baseline Concepts Mandatory programs and receipts. The baseline esti-
An important principle in establishing baseline esti- mates presented here for mandatory programs and re-
mates is to make the results useful to the Congress and ceipts reflect the future implications ofcurrent law and
the public. The concepts used in this analysis are not final regulations. They also include anticipated changes
the only ones possible. Different concepts may be useful of a relatively uncontrollable nature (as distinct from
for different purposes. Only for fulfilling the require- policy changes), such as increases in the number of
ments ofthe G-R-H law is a specific baseline prescribed. medicare beneficiaries. The impact ofall new legislative
initiatives, whether presidential or congressional, are
‘TheOmnibusReconciliation Actof1989(PublicLaw 101-239)movedthePostalService
off-budget and required that its outlays be excluded from the G-R-H deficit calculation. omitted. In 1991, the baseline assumes that expiring
Cofofn-sbeuqdugeenttployr,tiPoonstoafltSheeravdimcieniessttriamtaitoens'sarbeudngoett.inthebaselineandareincludedonlyinthe provisions of law providing revenues and spending au-
A-27
