Beyond Al Qaeda, Part II, The Outer Rings of the Terrorist Universe

217 Pages·2015·1.3 MB·English

Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive
DSpace Repository
Faculty and Researchers Faculty and Researchers' Publications
2006
Beyond Al Qaeda, Part II, The Outer Rings of
the Terrorist Universe
Angel Rabasa; Peter Chalk; Kim Cragin; Sara A. Daly;
Gregg, Heather S.; Theodore W. Karasik; Kevin A. OBrien;
William Rosenau
Santa Monica: RAND
http://hdl.handle.net/10945/52635
Downloaded from NPS Archive: Calhoun
THE ARTS This PDF document was made available
CHILD POLICY from www.rand.org as a public service of
CIVIL JUSTICE
the RAND Corporation.
EDUCATION
ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT Jump down to document6
HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE
INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS
The RAND Corporation is a nonproft
NATIONAL SECURITY
research organization providing
POPULATION AND AGING
objective analysis and effective
PUBLIC SAFETY
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY solutions that address the challenges
SUBSTANCE ABUSE
facing the public and private sectors
TERRORISM AND
HOMELAND SECURITY around the world.
TRANSPORTATION AND
INFRASTRUCTURE
Support RAND
WORKFORCE AND WORKPLACE
Purchase this document
Browse Books & Publications
Make a charitable contribution
For More Information
Visit RAND at www.rand.org
Explore RAND Project AIR FORCE
View document details
Limited Electronic Distribution Rights
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law
as indicated in a notice appearing later in this work. This electronic
representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for non-
commercial use only. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or
reuse in another form, any of our research documents.
This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series.
RAND monographs present major research fndings that address the
challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND mono-
graphs undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for
research quality and objectivity.
Beyond
al-Qaeda
PA R T 2
The Outer Rings of the Terrorist
Universe
Angel Rabasa • Peter Chalk • Kim Cragin • Sara A. Daly • Heather S. Gregg
Theodore W. Karasik • Kevin A. O’Brien • William Rosenau
Prepared for the United States Air Force
Approved for public release, distribution unlimited
The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States
Air Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may
be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of Plans,
Hq USAF.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Beyond al-Qaeda. Part 2. The outer rings of the terrorist universe / Angel Rabasa
... [et al.].
p. cm.
“MG-430.”
Includes bibliographical references.
ISBN-13: 978-0-8330-3932-3 (pbk. : alk. paper)
1. Qaida (Organization) 2. Terrorists. 3. Terrorism—Government policy—United
States. 4. Terrorism—United States—Prevention. 5. War on Terrorism, 2001–
I. Rabasa, Angel.
HV6431.B4932 2006
363.325'12—dc22
2006025206
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit research organization providing
objective analysis and effective solutions that address the challenges
facing the public and private sectors around the world. RAND’s
publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients
and sponsors.
R® is a registered trademark.
© Copyright 2006 RAND Corporation
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced in any
form by any electronic or mechanical means (including photocopying,
recording, or information storage and retrieval) without permission in
writing from RAND.
Published 2006 by the RAND Corporation
1776 Main Street, P.O. Box 2138, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138
1200 South Hayes Street, Arlington, VA 22202-5050
4570 Fifth Avenue, Suite 600, Pittsburgh, PA 15213-2665
RAND URL: http://www.rand.org/
To order RAND documents or to obtain additional information, contact
Distribution Services: Telephone: [phone];
Fax: [phone]; Email:
Preface
Te September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks and the U.S. response—the
global war on terrorism—have changed the world, and the terrorist
enterprise that we know as al-Qaeda has changed with it. Te cur-
rent status of al-Qaeda’s network remains unclear, but it is certain
that it and other terrorist groups continue to threaten the lives and
well-being of Americans, at home and abroad, and the security of
our friends and allies. Tis continuing danger leads to ongoing U.S.
and international efforts to monitor, disrupt, and dismantle terrorist
groups before they can cause large-scale destruction to our people or
our interests.
Te objective of this RAND Corporation study, undertaken
as part of a project entitled “Beyond al-Qaeda: Countering Future
Terrorist and Other Nontraditional Treats to U.S. Security,” is to
understand the shape of future threats to the United States and U.S.
security interests from terrorist and other extremist organizations. We
do this through analyses that draw together the various threat strands
that are informing current U.S. thinking in the war on terror. Te
study looks specifically at four sources of threats:
1. Al-Qaeda. We examine how al-Qaeda has changed since
September 11, the loss of its operating base in Afghanistan, and
the death or capture of key operatives; and we assess what forms
the al-Qaeda threat to the United States and U.S. interests take
now and might take in the future.
iii
iv Beyond al-Qaeda: The Outer Rings of the Terrorist Universe
2. Terrorist groups that may not be formally part of al-Qaeda but
that have assimilated al-Qaeda’s worldview and concept of mass-
casualty terrorist attacks. Tis, we believe, is where the center of
gravity of the current global terrorist threat lies.
3. Violent Islamist and non-Islamist terrorist and insurgent groups
without known links to al-Qaeda. Tese groups threaten U.S.
regional interests, friends, and allies, as well as other nontradi-
tional threats.
4. Te nexus between terrorism and organized crime. In each case,
we examine how the presence of these threats affects U.S. secu-
rity interests, and we identify distinct strategies that the United
States and the U.S. Air Force may take to neutralize or mitigate
each of these threats.
Te results of the study are reported in two volumes. Tis book is
the seccond of the two; the first, by Angel Rabasa, Peter Chalk, Kim
Cragin, Sara A. Daly, Heather S. Gregg, Teodore W. Karasik, Kevin
A. O’Brien, and William Rosenau, is entitled Beyond al-Qaeda: Part 1,
Te Global Jihadist Movement.
Tis research builds on previous RAND Project AIR FORCE
work on counterterrorism, notably the following:
• Angel Rabasa, Cheryl Benard, Peter Chalk, Christine Fair,
Teodore Karasik, Rollie Lal, Ian Lesser, and David Taler, Te
Muslim World After 9/11, MG-246-AF, 2004
• Nora Bensahel, Te Counterterror Coalitions: Cooperation with
Europe, NATO, and the European Union, MR-1746-AF, 2003
• Kim Cragin and Sara Daly, Te Dynamic Terrorist Treat: An
Assessment of Group Motivations and Capabilities in a Changing
World, MR-1782-AF, 2004
• Lynn Davis, Steven Hosmer, Sara Daly, and Karl Mueller, Te
U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy: A Planning Framework to Facilitate
Timely Policy Adjustments, DB-426-AF, 2004
• David Ochmanek, Military Operations Against Terrorist Groups
Abroad: Implications for the United States Air Force, MR-1738-AF,
2003.
Preface v
Tis research was sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Staff for
Air and Space Operations, U.S. Air Force (A3/5), and conducted in
the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE.
Research for this project was completed in September 2004. Tis book
should be of value to the national security community and to inter-
ested members of the general public, especially those with an interest
in combating the blight of international terrorism.
RAND Project AIR FORCE
RAND Project AIR FORCE, a division of the RAND Corporation, is
the U.S. Air Force’s federally funded research and development center
for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent
analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment,
combat readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces.
Research is performed in four programs: Aerospace Force Development;
Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management; and
Strategy and Doctrine.
Additional information about PAF is available on our Web site at
http://www.rand.org/paf.
Contents
Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . iii
Figure and Tables . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xi
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xiii
Acknowledgments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxxi
Abbreviations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . xxxiii
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Anaytical Framework . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
CHAPTER TWO
Hezbollah and Hamas . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Hezbollah, Party of God . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Ideological Foundation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Strategic and Operational Objectives. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Environmental Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13
Hamas: Te Islamic Resistance Movement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Ideological Foundation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
Strategic and Operational Objectives. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Environmental Factors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21
Epilogue. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
CHAPTER THREE
Other Islamist Groups Outside the al-Qaeda Network . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Te Armed Islamic Group . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
vii