Aviation Integrated Modelling Open Source

44 Pages·2016·6.03 MB·English

AIM-OS:
Aviation Integrated Modelling
Open Source
Dr. AidanO’Sullivan
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Overview
1 Background
ProjectHistory
2 AIMArchitecture
CoreModules
GlobalClimateModule
LocalAirQualityandNoise
RegionalEconomics
3 AIMinPractice
FleetReplacementPolicy
PolicyResults
4 OngoingandFutureDevelopments
Team
References
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Aviation Integrated Modelling
(cid:4) AIM-globalaviationpolicyassessmenttoolindevelopmentsince
2007andusedinnumerouspublications.
(cid:4) Allowsforcomprehensiveanalysesofaviation,environmentand
economicinteractions,atbothlocalandgloballevel.
(cid:4) Composedofasetofinter-linkedmodulesmodellingkeyelements
ofglobalaviation.
(cid:4) Currentwork: UpdateforanOpenSourcereleasetothe
community∼Oct2016.
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AIM Project History
(cid:4) Indevelopmentsince2007
(cid:4) Involvementoflargenumberofinstitutionsandcollaborators
(cid:4) Withfundingfrom:
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AIM Architecture
1
1Reynolds,2007
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AIM Architecture
(cid:4) Modulardesignhasanumberofbenefits:
(cid:78) Temporalandspatialresolutioncanbetailoredtothe
application.
(cid:78) Modulescanberunindependently.
(cid:78) Permitsextensionsanddevelopmentsofthecapabilitiesofthe
differentmodules.
(cid:78) Eachmoduleisaninputsiteforpolicylevers.
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Aircraft Technology and Cost
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Aircraft Technology and Cost
(cid:4) Simulatesfuelburn,emissionsandoperatingcostsbystagelength
andloadfactorforairframeandenginetechnologiesto2050.
(cid:4) Fleetaggregatedinto3categoriesbasedonsize:
(cid:78) < 199,190-300seats,> 300seats
(cid:4) Fuelburnandemissionscosts:
(cid:78) below3,000ftestimatedfromICAOExhaustEmissionData,
LTOcycle
(cid:78) above3,000ftestimatedusingEUROCONTROLBaseof
AircraftData
(cid:4) Non-fuelrelatedoperatingcostsestimatedusingUSDOTform41
airlinefinancialdataadjustedforglobaldifferencesbasedonICAO
data.
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Future Technology
Arangeofadvancedtechnologiesareconsideredtobecomeavailable:
(cid:4) Biofuels:
(cid:4) 20-50%blendpossibleby2020
(cid:4) NewAircrafttechnology:
(cid:4) Fuelburnofnewaircraftmodelsimproves1%peryear
(cid:4) ATMimprovements-4%decreaseinfuelburnglobally
(cid:4) Retrofits,e.g. winglets
Tech Year Reduction
CompositeEvolutionaryReplacementNarrowbody 2025 22%
OpenRotorNarrowbody 2025 35%
BlendedWingBodyWidebody 2037 30%
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Aircraft Technology and Cost
(cid:4) Airlinesmakedecisiontoinvestincurrentorfuturetechnology
basedoncost.
(cid:4) Foralterationstoexistingaircraftthreeyearpaybackperiodisused.
(cid:4) FornewaircrafttypesNetPresentValuemodelisused.
(cid:4) Parametersderivedfromfinancialreportsandvarybyregion
(cid:4) EffectivepaybackfornewaircraftinUS∼7.5years,Africa∼6.2
years.