Atmospheric Ozone as a Climate Gas: General Circulation Model Simulations PDF
Preview Atmospheric Ozone as a Climate Gas: General Circulation Model Simulations
NATO ASI Series Advanced Science Institutes Series A series presenting the results of activities sponsored by the NA TO Science Committee, which aims at the dissemination of advanced scientific and technological knowledge, with a view to strengthening links between scientific communities. The Series is published by an international board of publishers in conjunction with the NATO Scientific Affairs Division A Life Sciences Plenum Publishing Corporation B Physics London and New York C Mathematical and Physical Sciences Kluwer Academic Publishers D Behavioural and Social Sciences Dordrecht, Boston and London E Applied Sciences F Computer and Systems Sciences Springer-Verlag G Ecological Sciences Berlin Heidelberg New York H Cell Biology London Paris Tokyo Hong Kong I Global Environmental Change Barcelona Budapest PARTNERSHIP SUB-SERIES 1. Disarmament Technologies Kluwer Academic Publishers 2. Environment Springer-Verlag 3. High Technology Kluwer Academic Publishers 4. Science and Technology Policy Kluwer Academic Publishers S. Computer Networking Kluwer Academic Publishers The Partnership Sub-Series incorporates activities undertaken in collaboration with NA TO's Cooperation Partners, the countries of the CIS and Central and Eastern Europe, in Priority Areas of concern to those countries. NATO-PCO DATABASE The electronic index to the NATO ASI Series provides full bibliographical references (with keywords and/or abstracts) to about SOOOO contributions from international scientists published in all sections of the NATO ASI Series. Access to the NATO-PCO DATABASE compiled by the NATO Publication Coordination Office is possible in two ways: -via online FILE 128 (NATO-PCO DATABASE) hosted by ESRIN, Via Galileo Galilei, 1-00044 Frascati, Italy. -via CD-ROM "NATO Science & Technology Disk" with user-friendly retrieval software in English, French and German (© WTV GmbH and DATAWARE Technologies Inc. 1992). The CD-ROM can be ordered through any member of the Board of Publishers or through NATO-PCO, Overijse, Belgium. Series I: Global Environmental Change, Vol. 32 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York Barcelona Budapest Hong Kong London Milan Paris Tokyo Atmospheric Ozone as a Climate Gas General Circulation Model Simulations Edited by Wei-Chyung Wang Atmospheric Sciences Research Center State University of New York 100 Fuller Road Albany, NY 12205, USA Ivar S. A. Isaksen Institute of Geophysics, University of Oslo P.O. Box 1022 Blindern, 0315 Oslo, Norway Springer pubiished in cooperation with NATO SCiemtif.ic Affairs Division Proceedings of the Advanced Study Institute on atmospheric ozone as a climate gas, held in Lillehammer, Norway, June 19-23, 1994 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Atmospheric ozone as a climate gas: general circulation model simulations / edited by Wei-Chyung Wang, Ivar S.A. Isaksen. p. cm. -- (NATO ASI series. Series I, Global environmental change; vol. 32) "Published in cooperation with NATO Scientific Affairs Division." "Proceedings of the Advanced Study Institute on Atmospheric Ozone as a Climate Gas, held in Lillehammer, Norway, June 19-23, 1994." -Verso t.p. Includes bibliographical references. ISBN-13:978-3-642-79871-9 e-ISBN-13 :978-3-642-79869-6 001: 10.1007/978-3-642-79869-6 1. Atmospheric ozone--Environmental aspects--Mathematical models -Congresses. 2. Greenhouse gases--Environmental aspects- -Mathematical models--Congresses. 3. Atmospheric chemistry- -Environmental aspects--MathematiCal models--Congresses. 4. Atmospheric circulation--Mathematlcal models--Congresses. I. Wang, Wei-Chyung. II. Isaksen, I. S. A. (Ivar S. A.) III. North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Scientific Affairs Division. IV. Advanced Study Institute on Atmospheric Ozone as a Climate Gas (1994 : Lillehammer, Norway) V. Series. QC879.7.A89 1995 551.5'112--dc20 95-20207 CIP Additional material to this book can be downloaded from http://extra.springer.com ISBN-13:978-3-642-79871-9 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reseNed, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights oftranslation, reprinting, reuse of illustratio;ls, recitation, broadcast ing, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer-Verlag. Violations are liable for prosecution under the German Copyright Law. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1995 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1s t edition 1995 Typesetting: Camera ready by authors/editors Printed on acid-free paper SPIN: 10466151 31/3136 -5 4 3 210 Preface One of the major findings in the 1992 IPCC report and the 1994 World Meteorological Organization's Ozone Assessment report was the identification of possible climatic effects over the last few decades resulting from anthropogenic ally-induced changes in atmospheric ozone. The initial quantitative estimates of their direct climatic effects indicate significant impacts, though large uncertainties exist and studies using general circulation models are needed. A point that needs to be addressed in particular is that atmospheric ozone differs from greenhouse gases in that it is formed and destroyed by chemical processes in the atmosphere due to interaction involving a large number of source gases (e.g. H 0, NO CO, 2 x' NMHC, N 0, CH and the CFCs). Therefore, the indirect effect of climate-chemistry 2 4 interaction involving atmospheric ozone is an important aspect for consideration in general circulation models. During the last few years, there have been several international workshops related to atmospheric ozone. In 1987, a NATO workshop on atmospheric ozone was held in Lillehammer, Norway. More recently, two workshops were organized to discuss the topic "General Circulation Model Study of Climate-Chemistry Interaction." The first was held August 19-21, 1992, in Oslo, Norway, and the second held May 26-27,1993, in Albany, New York, USA. The two workshops were IAMAP activities under the Trace Constituent Working Group. The objectives of this NATO workshop, which was held June 19-23, 1994 in Lillehammer, Norway and attended by 48 participants from 15 countries, were: • to document current knowledge about ozone in the atmosphere and its impact on climate; • to discuss the scientific issues concerning the chemical and climate aspects of ozone; and • to identify the research needed for developing coupled chemistry-climate general circulation models. The workshop was divided into scientific presentations and working group discussions focusing on four topics: upper troposphericllower stratospheric climatology; chemical modeling; climate modeling; and issues relevant to the development of coupled chemistry/climate models. This book summarizes the key findings from the workshop and VI consists of two parts: the recommendations from the four working groups, and individual studies of recent advances. The workshop was primarily sponsored by NATO, and we thank its Science Committee for their assistance and cooperation. We would also like to thank the U. S. Department of Energy and the National Science Foundation, as well as the Norwegian Research Council for Science and Technology, and the Department of Environment for their continued support and encouragement toward addressing this important issue. On a personal level, we would like to express our appreciation to Mette Isaksen and Jane Cuddy, whose dedication made it a successful endeavor. Wei-Chyung Wang, Albany, New York, USA Ivar S. A. Isaksen, Oslo, Norway March 1995 About the Editors Dr. Wei-Chyung Wang is Professor of Applied Sciences at State University of New York at Albany. He received his Doctor of Engineering Sciences degree from Columbia University in New York in 1973. Professor Wang has a background in atmospheric radiation and climate modeling. His research focuses on the global and regional climate changes due to increases of atmospheric constituents, greenhouse gases, and aerosols associated with human activities. He is also engaged in research evaluating the effect and impact of climatic changes on social and economic activities and their policy implications. He has been actively participating in the United Nations sponsored environmental studies such as the World Meteorological Organization's Ozone Assessment and the United Nations Environment Programme's Inter governmental Panel on Climate Changes. Professor Wang is also taking a leading role in the scientific exchange of climate research between the United States and the People's Republic of China. Dr. Ivar S. A. Isaksen is Professor of Meteorology at the University of Oslo, where he received his doctoral degree in meteorology in 1973. At present he is also affiliated with the Center for International Climate and Environment Research Oslo (CICERO). His main areas of interest are atmospheric chemistry and climate. Modeling of ozone depletion, and changes in the distribution of climate gases due to chemical oxidation are research topics which are being addressed in a large number of papers he has published. Professor Isaksen is also active in the international assessments on ozone and climate which have been performed by the World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Programme. He is a member of several international research committees dealing with ozone and climate issues. n RiishflSjgaard L. G. Myhre I. Yagai Zetterberg L. T. Berntsen K. P. Fortuin 0. Hov S. Haugland M. RurnmukaineF. Stordal D. Hauglustaine H. Kelder 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 0. 1. G 4444444 4 44 55 ) 0 @ 08 0 G6 0 ®B 8(€)® 3@600 H. Mao O. P. Berge Steil B. J. Fuglestvedt J. K. Sundet Shine K. A. Marenco M. Prather D. DeMuer P. Rasch D. Carlolle Lelieveldt J. S. Cox lBB0 7. 8. 9. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. E 2223333 3 333 33 C G ! G f@ 8 B G @~ 0 n GG GBBt)88 ( G. Megie J. E. Jonson D. Jaffe X. Zhou X.-Z. Liang G.Wu C. M. Liu X. Yin P. Taalas Karol L. I. B. Rognerud ThorstenseI. V. Mohnen G&IJ 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 20. 21. 22. 23. 24. 25. 26. e0 8 0 ~- ' a r a nk n 1. G. Brasseur 2. Bojkov R. 3. A.-R. Ravisha4. Stolarsky R. 5. J. Penner 6. W.-C. Wang S. A Isakse7. I. F. H. Graf 8. M. Isaksen 9. 10. J. Austin C. Zerefos 11. C. Isaksen 12. 13. A. Kylling Table of Contents Part 1 Session Summaries I: Upper Tropospheric/Lower Stratospheric Ozone Climatology 3 V. A. Mohnen (Chairperson), M. Rummukainen (Rapporteur), R. D. Bojkov, D. De Muer, J. P. F. Fortuin, S. O. Haugland, C. M. Liu, A. Marenco, G. Megie, R. Stolarski, P. Taalas, X. Yin, C. Zerefos, X. Zhou ll: Chemical Modeling 19 0. Hov (Chairperson), J. Lelieveld (Rapporteur), G. Brasseur, J. Fuglestvedt, D. Hauglustaine, J. E. Jonson, I. Karol, A. Ravishankara, F. Stordal m: Oimate Modeling 39 H.-F. Graf (Chairperson), S. Cox (Rapporteur), X.-Z. Liang, H. Mao, G. Myhre, P. Rasch, L. P. Riish!1ljgaard, K. Shine, I. Thorstensen, G.-X. Wu, I. Yagai, L. Zetterberg IV: Issues Relevant to the Development of Coupled Chemistry/Climate Models 47 J. Penner (Chairperson), M. J. Prather (Rapporteur), J. Austin, D. CarloUe, H. Kelder, A. Kylling, B. Steil, J. K. Sundet Part 2 Research Studies Climate Change and Its Effect on Tropospheric Ozone 65 C. S. Atherton, J. E. Penner, C. Price, J. J. Walton Simulations of Stratospheric Ozone in a Qimate Model 87 J. Austin, N. Butchart GCM Modelling of the Stratospheric Dynamics 101 and Its Coupling with Chemistry D. Carlolle, M. D6que, F. Lefevre, A. De Rudder Analysis of 25 Years of Regular Ozone Soundings at Uccle (Belgium) 113 D. De Muer,H. De Backer, Ph. Van Haver Concurrent Ozone and Temperature Trends Derived from 131 Ozonesonde Stations J. P. F. Fortuin, R.Van Dorland, H. Kelder Responses in Tropospheric Chemistry to Changes in UV Fluxes, 145 Temperatures and Water Vapour Densities J. S. Fuglestvedt, J. E. Jonson, W.-C. Wang, I. S. A. Isaksen On the Interrelationship Between Recent Climate Trends, Ozone Changes 163 and Increased Greenhouse Gas Forcing H.-F. Graf, 1. Perlwitz, I. Kirchner, I. Schult Mid-Latitude Stratospheric-Tropospheric Ozone Exchange -A Trend Study 181 S. O. Haugland
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