Assessment of the fate and effects of toxic agents on water resources: [proceedings of the NATO Advanced Study Institute on Advanced Modeling Techniques for Rapid Diagnosis and Assessment of CBRN Agents Effects on Water Resources, Istanbul, Turkey, 4-16 D

408 Pages·2007·15.53 MB·English

by  I. Ethem Gonenc

Assessment of the Fate
and Effects of Toxic Agents
on Water Resources
NATO Security through Science Series
This Series presents the results of scientific meetings supported under the NATO
ProgrammeforSecuritythroughScience(STS)
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NATOviewsorpolicy.
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Sub-Series
A. ChemistryandBiology Springer
B. PhysicsandBiophysics Springer
C.EnvironmentalSecurity Springer
D. InformationandCommunicationSecurity IOSPress
E. HumanandSocietalDynamics IOSPress
http://www.nato.int/science
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SeriesC:EnvironmentalSecurity
Assessment of the Fate
and Effects of Toxic Agents
on Water Resources
editedby
I. Ethem Gonenc
IGEMResearchandConsulting,
Istanbul,Turkey
Vladimir G. Koutitonsky
InstitutdesSciencesdelaMerdeRimouski(ISMER),
QC,Canada
Brenda Rashleigh
U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency,
Athens,GA,U.S.A.
Robert B. Ambrose, Jr.
U.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency,
Athens,GA,U.S.A.
and
John P. Wolflin
U.S.FishandWildlifeService,
ChesapeakeBayFieldOffices,U.S.A.
PublishedincooperationwithNATOPublicDiplomacyDivision
ProceedingsoftheNATOAdvancedStudyInstituteon
AdvancedModelingTechniquesforRapidDiagnosisand
AssessmentofCBRNAgentsEffectsonWaterResources
Istanbul,Turkey
4–16December2005
AC.I.P.CataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress.
ISBN-10 1-4020-5527-7(PB)
ISBN-13 978-1-4020-5527-0(PB)
ISBN-10 1-4020-5526-9(HB)
ISBN-13 978-1-4020-5526-3(HB)
ISBN-10 1-4020-5528-5(e-book)
ISBN-13 978-1-4020-5528-7(e-book)
PublishedbySpringer,
P.O.Box17,3300AADordrecht,TheNetherlands.
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PREFACE
Thedomesticincidentmanagementlandscapehaschangeddramaticallyfol-
lowing the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 in the United States of
America.Thishasbeendemonstratedwithattacksworld-wide(e.g.Madrid,
London,Tokyo).Today’sthreatenvironmentincludesnotonlythetraditional
spectrumofmanmadeandnaturalhazards—wildlandandurbanfires,floods,
oilspills,hazardousmaterialsreleases,transportationaccidents,earthquakes,
hurricanes,tornadoes,pandemics,anddisruptionstoenergyandinformation
technology infrastructure—but also the deadly and devastating terrorist ar-
senalofchemical,biological,radiological,nuclear,andhigh-yieldexplosive
weapons.
Thesecomplexandemerging21stcenturythreatsandhazardsdemanda
unified and coordinated approach to domestic incident management. Every
countryneedstoestablishanationalstrategyforhomelandsecurityandman-
agementofdomesticincidentswithclearobjectivesforaconcertednational
efforttopreventterroristattacks;reducevulnerabilitytoterrorism,majordis-
asters, and other emergencies; and minimize the damage and recover from
attacks,majordisasters,andotheremergenciesthatoccur.
Coastallagoonsarehighlysubjecttothreatfromterroristattackbecause
they represent concentrated centers of the socio-economic system. The sur-
rounding catchment areas are rich in natural capital, producing goods (agri-
culture and fisheries products) and services (industry and technology) for
broad geographic areas. Lagoons are typically densely populated areas that
serveascentersofdomesticandinternationaltrade,tourism,andcommerce.
Cities around lagoons are often the center of governments (i.e. capitals) for
local, regional and national legislatures. Therefore, coastal lagoon systems
lendthemselveswellashighlysubjecttothreatfromterroristattack.
ThebookCoastalLagoons:EcosystemProcessesandModelingforSus-
tainableUseandDevelopment(CRCPress,2005)presentedmodelsandother
toolsrecommendedforsustainablemanagementofcoastallagoons.Thatbook
described the development of a decision support system based on modeling
and a process for development of a sustainable management plan. Develop-
mentofasustainablemanagementplanthatusesthebest,mostcurrentdata,
processes,andmodelsisrecommendedforalllagoonsystemsinordertocon-
servetheseimportantecologicalandsocio-economicsystems.Asustainable
useanddevelopmentplanisanimportantproactiveandlong-termtooltobe
implementedandupdatedonanannualbasisformaximumeffectiveness.
v
vi PREFACE
Thisbookbuildsuponthatpreviousworkanddescribeshowsuchasus-
tainableuseanddevelopmentplanalsocanbeusedasafoundationinresponse
toachemical,biological,radiological,ornuclear(CBRN)threat.Inorderto
meettheseriouschallengesandgrowingcurrentthreatsofterrorismandother
anthropogenic pressures on these important systems, a sustainable manage-
mentplanshouldincludeanemergencyresponsesection.Suchanemergency
response plan would detail the priority actions necessary for rapid response
to avoid, minimize and mitigate any adverse impacts to the lagoon system.
As noted in the pages to follow, a current plan also serves as preemptive
protection and guidance on rapid response and recovery from such a CBRN
attack.
This book is a result of a NATO sponsored Advanced Study Institute
(ASI) held in Istanbul, Turkey in December 2005. The aim of the ASI was
totransferinformationandknowledgegainedbytheLEMSMgroup(NATO
CCMS Pilot Study Group on Ecosystem Modeling of Coastal Lagoons for
Sustainable Management) during their 10 years NATO-CCMS Pilot Study
to young international scientists. It also encouraged the use of models as a
tool for rapid response and decision making in today’s climate of growing
terrorismthreat.ThebookisreflectiveoftheinstructionprovidedattheASI.
It specifically reframes the need for maintaining current scientific data and
modeling in management of lagoon systems in the context of emergency
conditions. Further, it defines the decision-making process in the context of
assessment,diagnosis,andresponsetoaterroristthreatonalagoonsystem.
Background materials including tools and examples of Emergency Re-
sponseandDecisionMakingareprovided.Theexamplesincludesummaries,
sources of information with references to additional information. Training
materials are also provided which include practice exercises and decision-
makingscenarios.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This book is a product of the “Ecosystem Modeling of Coastal Lagoons
forSustainableManagement(LEMSM)”PilotStudysupportedbyNATO—
CommitteeontheChallengesofModernSociety(CCMS),whichwasinitiated
in 1995. This book would not exist without the support of the NATO-Public
Diplomacy Division in Brussels. I particularly want to thank to Dr. Deniz
Beten(CCMSProgramDirector)forherdedicationandsupport.
ThebookisbasedonaNATOsponsoredAdvancedStudyInstitute(ASI)
heldinIstanbul,Turkey,December2005.Iwanttooffermydeepestaffection
to the LEMSM family. I am indebted to my colleagues, the scientists who
served as lecturers and wrote the chapters. They are truly dedicated to im-
prove the management of coastal lagoons before, during, and after terrorist
attack. In addition to me the following individuals have made-up our ASI
leadership team and provided guidance and editorial review within their ar-
easofexpertise:VladimirKoutitonsky,JohnWolflin,BrendaRashleigh,and
RobertAmbrose.ParticularlyworthnotingaremystudentsNusretKarakaya,
AliErturk,AlpaslanEkdal,andMelikeGurelwhoprovidedtremendousas-
sistanceinpreparingforandimplementingtheASI.IacknowledgeMs.Lynn
Schoolfield,USEPA,aspartoftheLEMSMfamilyandoneofourmostardent
supporters.IwanttorecognizeBiimyrzaToktoralievasco-directoroftheASI
andrepresentativeoftheRepublicofKyrgyzstan.
This book could not have been accomplished without the dedication of
manyindividualsandorganizations.Onbehalfofalloftheauthors,weespe-
ciallywanttothanktoMrs.WilBruinsandMissSatvinderKaurforeditorial
guidance.TheASI,aswellasthisbook,wouldnothavebeenaccomplished
withouttheassistanceofthepeoplefromseveralorganizationsincludingATS
WaterTechnologiesGroup,IGEMResearch,andthestaffoftheHotelMarine
Princess,Kumburgaz,Istanbul,Turkey.
I also want to recognize the fifty-five fine students from nine countries
who participated in the ASI. We look forward to working with these young
professionalsinthefutureandtheirinvolvementintheSustainableEcosystem
Society (SES). As the editor, I devote this book to young students world-
wide who will be responsible for ecosystems management under the threat
ofterroristattack.Youareourfuture!Ihopethatvaluableareas,likecoastal
lagoons, are conserved for future generations. This can only be achieved
through the implementation of sustainable management practices that take
into consideration emergency response principles such as those described
herein.
vii
viii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
We all are particularly grateful for the summer offshore breezes of la-
goons(called“meltem”inMediterraneanCountries),whichprovideduscool-
ness of spirit during our comprehensive studies and the development of this
manuscript.
I.EthemGo¨nenc¸
Istanbul,27June2006
CONTENTS
Preface v
Acknowledgements vii
PART1. INTRODUCTION 1
1. Introduction 3
I.EthemGonencandBiymyrzaToktoraliev
PART2. DECISIONMAKINGINRAPIDASSESSMENT
ANDDIAGNOSISOFCBRNEFFECTSON
COASTALLAGOONS 9
2. DecisionMakinginRapidAssessmentandDiagnosisof
CBRNEffectsonCoastalLagoons 11
JohnP.Wolflin,KarenTerwilligerandRosemarieC.Russo
2.1. Introduction 11
2.2. DecisionMakinginRapidAssessmentandResponse 12
2.2.1. InventoryInformation,Processes,andInfrastructures 12
2.2.2. Decision-MakingTools 13
2.2.2.1. Modeling 14
2.2.2.2. GraphicalUserInterfaces 15
2.2.2.3. Monitoring 16
2.2.2.4. Indicators 16
2.2.3. AssessmentTools 17
2.2.3.1. EnvironmentalSensitivityIndex(ESI) 17
2.2.3.2. SocialImpactAssessment(SIA) 25
2.2.3.3. EnvironmentalAssessment(EA) 26
2.2.3.4. SEAToolkit 28
2.2.4. Decision-MakingApproach(Model) 33
2.2.4.1. ClassicalRationalDecision-MakingModel 33
2.2.4.2. OrganizationalProcessModel 33
2.2.4.3. BureaucraticPoliticModel 34
2.2.4.4. Decision-MakingProcessfor
RapidAssessment 34
ix