Assessing China’s Power

301 Pages·2015·2.34 MB·English

by  Jae Ho Chung (eds.)

ASSESSING
CHINA’S POWER
EDITED BY JAE HO CHUNG
Assessing China’s Power
ASAN-PALGRAVE MACMILLAN SERIES
Th e Asan Institute for Policy Studies is an independent, nonpartisan think tank with the
mandate to undertake policy-relevant research to foster domestic, regional, and international
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Assessing China’s Power
Edited by
Jae Ho Chung
Palgrave
macmillan
ASSESSING CHINA’S POWER
Copyright © The Asan Institute 2015
Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 2015 978-1-137-53706-5
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First published 2015 by
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN
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work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
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ISBN 978-1-137-53707-2
E-PDF ISBN: 978–1–137–53461–3
DOI: 10.1057/9781137534613
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Assessing China’s power / edited by Jae Ho Chung.
pages cm. — (Asan-Palgrave Macmillan series)
Includes bibliographical references and index.
1. China—Foreign relations—21st century. 2. China—Foreign economic
relations—21st century. 3. China—Economic conditions—2000–
4. China—Economic policy—2000– 5. China—Military policy. I. Chong,
Chae-ho, 1960–
JZ1734.A55A77 2015
327.51—dc23 2015014580
A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library.
Contents
List of Figures vii
List of Tables ix
Foreword xi
Preface xiii
1 Assessing China’s Power 1
Jae Ho Chung
Part I Domestic Sources/Constraints of China’s Power
2 China’s Economic Power: Catching up with the United States by 2025? 21
Francois Godement
3 China’s Domestic Governing Capacity: Prospects and Challenges 41
Tony Saich
Part II Military Components of China’s Power
4 Evaluating China’s Conventional Military Power: The Naval and Air
Dimensions 65
Andrew S. Erickson
5 Assessing China’s Evolving Nuclear Capabilities 91
Michael S. Chase
6 China’s Modernization Efforts and Activities in Outer Space,
Cyberspace, and the Arctic 113
Kevin Pollpeter
Part III Normative Scope of China’s Power
7 China’s Changing Influence on the Multilateral System:
From Adaptation to Assertion 139
Ann Kent
vi ● Contents
8 Evaluating China’s Soft Power: Dimensions of Norms and Attraction 163
Hankwon Kim
Part IV Regional Impact of China’s Power
9 China’s Power in the Regional Context (I): Northeast Asia 185
David Kang
10 China’s Power in the Regional Context (II): Southeast Asia 207
Evelyn Goh
Part V Assessing China’s Global Power
11 China’s Global Power/China as a Global Power 231
Shaun Breslin
12 China’s Power from a Chinese Perspective (I):
A Developing Country versus a Great Power 251
Suisheng Zhao
13 China’s Power from a Chinese Perspective (II):
Back to the Center Stage 271
Zhimin Chen
List of Contributors 291
Index 295
Figures
3.1 World Bank governance indicators/income per capita (PPP)
four indicators 44
3.2 Comparison of US-China governance indicators 45
3.3 Percentage of citizens who are extremely or relatively satisfied
with government performance 47
3.4 Satisfaction with public services and citizens’ perception of
importance of such work by government, 2011 48
8.1 Views of China’s influence (2005–2013) 170
8.2 Global favorability toward China (2002–2013) 171
8.3 Australian views toward the United States and China (2006–2013) 172
8.4 South Korean views toward the United States and China (2010–2013) 172
8.5 Corruption Perceptions Index of the United States
and China (1998–2013) 174
8.6 Bribe Payers Index of the United States and China (1999–2011) 175
8.7 The GINI Index: United States 175
8.8 The GINI Index: China 176
8.9 Economic freedom in the United States and China (1975–2011) 178
9.1 East Asian and Latin American defense spending,
1988–2013 (% of GDP) 188
9.2 Naval personnel in Latin America and East Asia (2013) 190
9.3 US ally versus nonUS ally defense expenditures,
1988–2012 (% of GDP) 193
10.1 Leading external trade partners’ percentage share of ASEAN exports,
1993–2012. 216
10.2 Annual inflow of foreign direct investment into ASEAN from leading
source countries and China, 2000–2012 217
13.1 A and B projections of Chinese power 286
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Tables
4.1 PLAN submarines 69
4.2 PLAN surface fleet 71
4.3 PLAAF fixed-wing aircraft 76
4.4 PLAN fixed-wing aircraft 78
8.1 Freedom rankings for the United States and China (1998–2014) 177
9.1 Change in absolute military spending (constant US$ 2011) 189
10.1 Annual military expenditure of key Southeast Asian countries,
2003–2012, in constant US$ billion (2011) 220
13.1 CNP of seven major countries in 1998 (CICIR2000-C7) 277
13.2 CNP of 13 major countries (CAS 2003-C13) 278
13.3 Chinese CNP versus US CNP (different assessments and rankings) 280