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Artificial Intelligence Frontiers in Statistics Artificial Intelligence Frontiers in Statistics AI and statistics III Edited by D.J. Hand Professor of Statistics The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK nl Ie SPRINGER-SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, B.V. First edition 1993 © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 1993 Originally published by Chapman & Hall in 1993 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1993 Typeset in 10/12 Palatino by Thomson Press (India) Ltd, New Delhi. ISBN 978-0-412-40710-9 ISBN 978-1-4899-4537-2 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4899-4537-2 Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the UK Copyright Designs and Patents Act, 1988, this publication may not be reproduced, stored, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction only in accordance with the terms of the licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency in the UK, or in accordance with the terms of licences issued by the appropriate Reproduction Rights Organization outside the UK. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the terms stated here should be sent to the publishers at the London address printed on this page. The publisher makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy of the information contained in this book and cannot accept any legal responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions that may be made. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data Artificial intelligence frontiers in statistics: AI and statistics III / edited by DJ. Hand. - 1st ed. p. cm. Includes index. ISBN 978-0-412-40710-9 1. Artificial intelligence. 2. Statistics. 3. Expert systems (Computer science) I. Hand, DJ. Q335.5.A786 1993 519.5'0285'63-dc20 92-34777 CIP Contents List of contributors ix Introduction D.]. Hand xv PART ONE Statistical expert systems 1 1 DEXPERT: an expert system for the design of experiments 3 T.J. Lorenzen, L.T. Truss, W.5. Spangler, W.T. Corpus and A.B. Parker 2 Inside two commercially available statistical expert systems 17 J.F.M. Raes 3 AMIA: Aide a la Modelisation par I'InteIligence Artificielle (expert system for simulation modelling and sectoral forecasting) 31 M. Ollivier, R. Arrus, M.-A. Durillon, S. Robert and B. Debord 4 An architecture for knowledge-based statistical support systems 39 A. Prat, E. Edmonds, J.M. Catot, J. Lores, J. Calmes and P. Fletcher 5 Enhancing explanation capabilities of statistical expert systems through hypertext 46 P. Hietala 6 Measurement scales as metadata 54 D.J. Hand PART TWO Belief networks 65 7 On the design of belief networks for knowledge-based systems 67 B. Abramson 8 Lack-of-information based control in graphical belief systems 82 vi Contents 9 Adaptive importance sampling for Bayesian networks applied to filtering problems 90 AR. Runnalls 10 Intelligent arc addition, belief propagation and utilization of parallel processors by probabilistic inference engines 106 A Ranjbar and M. McLeish 11 A new method for representing and solving Bayesian decision problems 109 P.P. Shenoy PART THREE Learning 139 -12 Inferring causal structure in mixed populations 141 C. Glymour, P. Spirtes and R. Scheines 13 A knowledge acquisition inductive system guided by empirical interpretation of derived results 156 K. Tsujino and S. Nishida 14 Incorporating statistical techniques into empirical symbolic learning systems 168 F. Esposito, D. Malerba and G. Semeraro 15 Learning classification trees 182 W. Buntine 16 An analysis of two probabilistic model induction techniques 202 S.L. Crawford and M. Fung PART FOUR Neural networks 215 17 A robust back propagation algorithm for function approximation 217 D.S. Chen and R.C. Jain 18 Maximum likelihood training of neural networks 241 H. Gish 19 A connectionist knowledge acquisition tool: CONKAT 256 A Ultsch, R. Mantyk and G. Halmans 20 Connectionist, rule-based, and Bayesian decision aids: an empirical comparison 264 S. Schwartz, J. Wiles, I. Gough and S. Phillips PART FIVE Text manipulation 279 21 Statistical approaches to aligning sentences and identifying word correspondences in parallel texts: a report on work in progress 281 W.A. Gale and K.W. Church Contents vii 22 Probabilistic text understanding 295 R.P. Goldman and E. Chamiak 23 The application of machine learning techniques in subject classification 312 I. Kavanagh, C. Ward and J. Dunnion PART SIX Other areas 325 24 A statistical semantics for causation 327 J. Pearl and T.S. Verma 25 Admissible stochastic complexity models for classification problems 335 P. Smyth 26 Combining the probability judgements of experts: statistical and artificial intelligence approaches 348 L.A. Cox 27 Randomness and independence in non-monotonic reasoning 362 E. Neufeld 28 Consistent regions in probabilistic logic when using different norms 370 D. Bouchaffra 29 A decision theoretic approach to controlling the cost of planning 387 L. Hartman Index 401 Contributors B. Abramson W. Buntine Department of Computer Science RIACS & NASA Ames Research Center University of Southern California Mail Stop 269-2 Los Angeles Moffet Field CA 90089-0782 CA 94035 USA USA R. Almond ].M. Catot Department of Statistics GN-22 Departamento de Estadistica University of Washington E.T.S.E.1.B. Seattle Diagonal 64 7 WA 98195 08028-Barcelona USA Spain R. Arrus E. Charniak CRISS Department of Computer Science (Centre de Recherche en Informatique Brown University Appliquee aux Sciences Sociales) Box 1910 Universite des Sciences Providence 38040 Grenoble Cedex RI02912 France USA D. Boucha/fra D.S. Chen CRISS Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (Centre de Recherche en Informatique 162 ATL Appliquee aux Sciences Sociales) The University of Michigan B.P. 47 X Ann Arbor 38040 Grenoble Cedex MI 48109-2110 France USA x Contributors K.W Church M,A, Durillon A T& T Bell Laboratories CRISS 600 Mountain A venue (Centre de Recherche en Infonnatique Murray Hill Appliquee aux Sciences Sociales) NJ 07079 Universite des Sciences USA 38040 Grenoble Cedex France W T. Corpus Electronic Data Systems E. Edmonds 5555 New King Street LUTCHI Research Centre MD-4029 Department of Computer Studies Troy, MI 48098 Loughborough University of USA Technology Loughborough L.A, Cox Jr Leicestershire LEl1 3TU US West Advanced Technologies UK 4001 Discovery Drive Boulder F. Esposito Colorado B0303 Istituto di Scienze dell'Infonnazione USA Universita degli Studi V. Amendola 173 (70126) S.L. Crawford Bari Advanced Decision Systems Italy 1500 Plymouth Street Mountain View P. Fletcher California Departamento de Estadistica 94043-1230 E.T.S.E.I.B. USA Diagonal 64 7 OB028-Barcelona B. Debord Spain CRISS (Centre de Recherche en Infonnatique R.M. Fung Appliquee aux Sciences Sociales) Advanced Decision Systems Universite des Sciences 1500 Plymouth Street 38040 Grenoble Cedex Mountain View France California 94043-1230 ]. Dunnion USA Department of Computer Science University College WA. Gale Dublin Belfield AT&T Bell Laboratories Dublin 4 600 Mountain A venue Ireland Murray Hill Contributors xi NJ 07079 D.]. Hand USA Statistics Department Faculty of Mathematics ]. Galmes The Open University Departamento de Estadistica Walton Hall E.T.S.E.I.B. Milton Keynes Diagonal 64 7 Buckinghamshire 08028-Barcelona MK76AA Spain UK L. Hartman H. Gish Computer Science BBN Systems and Technologies University of Rochester 10 Moulton Street Rochester Cambridge NY 14627 MA 01238 USA USA P. Hietala R.P. Goldman University of Tampere Department of Computer Science Department of Mathematical Sciences Tulane University Statistics Unit 301 Stanley Thomas Hall P.O. Box 607 New Orleans SF-33101 LA 70115 Tampere USA Finland 1. Gough R.c. Jain University of Queensland Artificial Intelligence Laboratory Qld 4072 162 ATL Australia The University of Michigan Ann Arbor C. Glymour MI 48109-2110 Department of Philosophy USA Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh 1. Kavanagh PA 15213 Department of Computer Science USA University College Dublin Belfield G. Halmans Dublin 4 Institute of Informatics Ireland University of Dortmund P.O. Box 500500 T.]. Lorenzen 0-4600 Dortmund Mathematics Department Germany General Motors Research and

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Artificial Intelligence Frontiers in Statistics Artificial Intelligence Frontiers in Statistics AI and statistics III Edited by D.J. Hand Professor of Statistics The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK nl Ie SPRINGER-SCIENCE+BUSINESS MEDIA, B.V. First edition 1993 © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 1993 Originally published by Chapman & Hall in 1993 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition 1993 Typeset in 10/12 Palatino by Thomson Press (India) Ltd, New Delhi. ISBN 978-0-412-40710-9 ISBN 978-1-4899-4537-2 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4899-4537-2 Apart from any fair dealing for the purposes of research or private study, or criticism or review, as permitted under the UK Copyright Designs and Patents Act, 1988, this publication may not be reproduced, stored, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of the publishers, or in the case of reprographic reproduction only in accordance with the terms of the licences issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency in the UK, or in accordance with the terms of licences issued by the appropriate Reproduction Rights Organization outside the UK. Enquiries concerning reproduction outside the terms stated here should be sent to the publishers at the London address printed on this page. The publisher makes no representation, express or implied, with regard to the accuracy of the information contained in this book and cannot accept any legal responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions that may be made. A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data Artificial intelligence frontiers in statistics: AI and statistics III / edited by DJ. Hand. - 1st ed. p. cm. Includes index. ISBN 978-0-412-40710-9 1. Artificial intelligence. 2. Statistics. 3. Expert systems (Computer science) I. Hand, DJ. Q335.5.A786 1993 519.5'0285'63-dc20 92-34777 CIP Contents List of contributors ix Introduction D.]. Hand xv PART ONE Statistical expert systems 1 1 DEXPERT: an expert system for the design of experiments 3 T.J. Lorenzen, L.T. Truss, W.5. Spangler, W.T. Corpus and A.B. Parker 2 Inside two commercially available statistical expert systems 17 J.F.M. Raes 3 AMIA: Aide a la Modelisation par I'InteIligence Artificielle (expert system for simulation modelling and sectoral forecasting) 31 M. Ollivier, R. Arrus, M.-A. Durillon, S. Robert and B. Debord 4 An architecture for knowledge-based statistical support systems 39 A. Prat, E. Edmonds, J.M. Catot, J. Lores, J. Calmes and P. Fletcher 5 Enhancing explanation capabilities of statistical expert systems through hypertext 46 P. Hietala 6 Measurement scales as metadata 54 D.J. Hand PART TWO Belief networks 65 7 On the design of belief networks for knowledge-based systems 67 B. Abramson 8 Lack-of-information based control in graphical belief systems 82 vi Contents 9 Adaptive importance sampling for Bayesian networks applied to filtering problems 90 AR. Runnalls 10 Intelligent arc addition, belief propagation and utilization of parallel processors by probabilistic inference engines 106 A Ranjbar and M. McLeish 11 A new method for representing and solving Bayesian decision problems 109 P.P. Shenoy PART THREE Learning 139 -12 Inferring causal structure in mixed populations 141 C. Glymour, P. Spirtes and R. Scheines 13 A knowledge acquisition inductive system guided by empirical interpretation of derived results 156 K. Tsujino and S. Nishida 14 Incorporating statistical techniques into empirical symbolic learning systems 168 F. Esposito, D. Malerba and G. Semeraro 15 Learning classification trees 182 W. Buntine 16 An analysis of two probabilistic model induction techniques 202 S.L. Crawford and M. Fung PART FOUR Neural networks 215 17 A robust back propagation algorithm for function approximation 217 D.S. Chen and R.C. Jain 18 Maximum likelihood training of neural networks 241 H. Gish 19 A connectionist knowledge acquisition tool: CONKAT 256 A Ultsch, R. Mantyk and G. Halmans 20 Connectionist, rule-based, and Bayesian decision aids: an empirical comparison 264 S. Schwartz, J. Wiles, I. Gough and S. Phillips PART FIVE Text manipulation 279 21 Statistical approaches to aligning sentences and identifying word correspondences in parallel texts: a report on work in progress 281 W.A. Gale and K.W. Church Contents vii 22 Probabilistic text understanding 295 R.P. Goldman and E. Chamiak 23 The application of machine learning techniques in subject classification 312 I. Kavanagh, C. Ward and J. Dunnion PART SIX Other areas 325 24 A statistical semantics for causation 327 J. Pearl and T.S. Verma 25 Admissible stochastic complexity models for classification problems 335 P. Smyth 26 Combining the probability judgements of experts: statistical and artificial intelligence approaches 348 L.A. Cox 27 Randomness and independence in non-monotonic reasoning 362 E. Neufeld 28 Consistent regions in probabilistic logic when using different norms 370 D. Bouchaffra 29 A decision theoretic approach to controlling the cost of planning 387 L. Hartman Index 401 Contributors B. Abramson W. Buntine Department of Computer Science RIACS & NASA Ames Research Center University of Southern California Mail Stop 269-2 Los Angeles Moffet Field CA 90089-0782 CA 94035 USA USA R. Almond ].M. Catot Department of Statistics GN-22 Departamento de Estadistica University of Washington E.T.S.E.1.B. Seattle Diagonal 64 7 WA 98195 08028-Barcelona USA Spain R. Arrus E. Charniak CRISS Department of Computer Science (Centre de Recherche en Informatique Brown University Appliquee aux Sciences Sociales) Box 1910 Universite des Sciences Providence 38040 Grenoble Cedex RI02912 France USA D. Boucha/fra D.S. Chen CRISS Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (Centre de Recherche en Informatique 162 ATL Appliquee aux Sciences Sociales) The University of Michigan B.P. 47 X Ann Arbor 38040 Grenoble Cedex MI 48109-2110 France USA x Contributors K.W Church M,A, Durillon A T& T Bell Laboratories CRISS 600 Mountain A venue (Centre de Recherche en Infonnatique Murray Hill Appliquee aux Sciences Sociales) NJ 07079 Universite des Sciences USA 38040 Grenoble Cedex France W T. Corpus Electronic Data Systems E. Edmonds 5555 New King Street LUTCHI Research Centre MD-4029 Department of Computer Studies Troy, MI 48098 Loughborough University of USA Technology Loughborough L.A, Cox Jr Leicestershire LEl1 3TU US West Advanced Technologies UK 4001 Discovery Drive Boulder F. Esposito Colorado B0303 Istituto di Scienze dell'Infonnazione USA Universita degli Studi V. Amendola 173 (70126) S.L. Crawford Bari Advanced Decision Systems Italy 1500 Plymouth Street Mountain View P. Fletcher California Departamento de Estadistica 94043-1230 E.T.S.E.I.B. USA Diagonal 64 7 OB028-Barcelona B. Debord Spain CRISS (Centre de Recherche en Infonnatique R.M. Fung Appliquee aux Sciences Sociales) Advanced Decision Systems Universite des Sciences 1500 Plymouth Street 38040 Grenoble Cedex Mountain View France California 94043-1230 ]. Dunnion USA Department of Computer Science University College WA. Gale Dublin Belfield AT&T Bell Laboratories Dublin 4 600 Mountain A venue Ireland Murray Hill Contributors xi NJ 07079 D.]. Hand USA Statistics Department Faculty of Mathematics ]. Galmes The Open University Departamento de Estadistica Walton Hall E.T.S.E.I.B. Milton Keynes Diagonal 64 7 Buckinghamshire 08028-Barcelona MK76AA Spain UK L. Hartman H. Gish Computer Science BBN Systems and Technologies University of Rochester 10 Moulton Street Rochester Cambridge NY 14627 MA 01238 USA USA P. Hietala R.P. Goldman University of Tampere Department of Computer Science Department of Mathematical Sciences Tulane University Statistics Unit 301 Stanley Thomas Hall P.O. Box 607 New Orleans SF-33101 LA 70115 Tampere USA Finland 1. Gough R.c. Jain University of Queensland Artificial Intelligence Laboratory Qld 4072 162 ATL Australia The University of Michigan Ann Arbor C. Glymour MI 48109-2110 Department of Philosophy USA Carnegie Mellon University Pittsburgh 1. Kavanagh PA 15213 Department of Computer Science USA University College Dublin Belfield G. Halmans Dublin 4 Institute of Informatics Ireland University of Dortmund P.O. Box 500500 T.]. Lorenzen 0-4600 Dortmund Mathematics Department Germany General Motors Research and

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