Arctic Resilience Report

240 Pages·2016·15.6 MB·English

by  Arctic Council

Arctic Resilience Report
2016
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Arctic Resilience Report
2016
First published in 2016 by the Stockholm Environment Institute and the Stockholm Resilience Centre
Project Director: Marcus Carson, Stockholm Environment Institute
Scientific Coordinator: Garry Peterson, Stockholm Resilience Centre
Project Manager: Claudia Strambo, Stockholm Environment Institute
Project Secretariat: Sarah Cornell, Miriam Huitric, Annika Nilsson, Juan Carlos Rocha
Executive Editors: Marcus Carson and Garry Peterson
Language Editors: Marion Davis and Tom Gill, Stockholm Environment Institute
Proofreading: Elaine Beebe
Design and layout: Tyler Kemp-Benedict and Richard Clay
Image research: Claudia Strambo
Graphics: Hugo Ahlenius, Nordpil
Cover credits
Front cover
Reindeer: © Erika Larsen erikalarsenphoto.com, from collection: Sámi – Walking With Reindeer, used by
permission
Tromsø, Norway polar night: © Mariusz Kluzniak (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0)
NASA satellites see Santa’s North Pole June 30, 2011: NASA/GSFC/Jeff Schmaltz/MODIS Land Rapid Response
Team
Inside front cover
Map of the Arctic region ©Hugo Ahlenius, nordpil.com
Created with data from:
Natural Earth Project. 2011. Natural Earth version 1.3. Retrieved February 3, 2011, from http://www.
naturalearthdata.com/downloads
Patterson, T. 2006. CleanTOPO2 3D. Retrieved November 5, 2010, from http://www.shadedrelief.com/cleantopo2/
Printing: Danagårds Litho
This publication should be cited as: Arctic Council (2016). Arctic Resilience Report. M. Carson and
G. Peterson (eds). Stockholm Environment Institute and Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm. http://www.
arctic-council.org/arr.
Individual chapters should be cited by chapter author/s.
Contact information
Arctic Resilience Assessment Secretariat
Stockholm Environment Institute and Stockholm Resilience Centre
Email: [email protected]
Website: http://www.arctic-council.org/arr
© Arctic Council 2016
ISBN: 978-91-86125-45-5
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The Arctic Resilience Assessment (ARA) is an Arctic Council project led by the Stockholm
Environment Institute and the Stockholm Resilience Centre. It builds on collaboration with Arctic
countries and Indigenous Peoples in the region, as well as several Arctic scientific organizations.
The ARA (previously Arctic Resilience Report) was approved as an Arctic Council project at the
Senior Arctic Officials meeting in November 2011. The ARA was initiated by the Swedish Ministry
of the Environment as a priority for the Swedish Chairmanship of the Arctic Council (May 2011 to
May 2013) and is being delivered under the US Chairmanship of the Arctic Council.
Project Steering Committee (PSC)
The ARA project is governed by a Project Steering Committee, which consists of representatives
of Arctic Council Member States, Permanent Participants and Working Groups, as well as
representatives of collaborating organizations. Members of the steering committee are listed below.
Co-Chairs Representatives of Collaborating Organizations
Joel Clement – Office of Policy Analysis, and Arctic Council Observers
US Department of the Interior Nicolaj Bock – European Environment Agency
Johan Rockström – Stockholm Resilience Centre David Hik – International Arctic Science Committee
Tatiana Vlasova – International Arctic Social Science
Representatives of Member States and Permanent Association
Participants Bruce C. Forbes – Arctic Centre, University of Lapland
David Murray – Canada Urban Wråkberg – University of the Arctic
Mark Nuttall – Denmark Gary Kofinas – Resilience Alliance
Outi Mähönen – Finland Johan L. Kuylenstierna – Stockholm Environment
Níels Einarsson – Iceland Institute
Kim Holmén – Norway Martin Sommerkorn – WWF Global Arctic
Evgeny Syroechkovskiy – Russian Federation Programme
Marianne Lilliesköld, Tove Lundeberg – Sweden
James Gamble – Aleut International Association
Cindy Dickson – Arctic Athabaskan Council
Grant Sullivan, Joseph Linklater, Amy Thompson –
Gwich’in Council International
Stephanie Meakin – Inuit Circumpolar Council
(Canada)
Dmitry Berezhkov – Russian Association of Indigenous
Peoples of the North, Siberia and Far East
Svein D. Mathiesen – Saami Council
Representatives of Arctic Council Working Groups
Ann-Sofi Israelson – Arctic Contaminants Action
Programme
Jon L. Fuglestad, Lars-Otto Reiersen – Arctic
Monitoring and Assessment Programme
Tom Barry – Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna
Soffía Guðmundsdóttir – Protection of the Arctic
Marine Environment
Doug Klassen – Sustainable Development Working
Group of the Arctic Council
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Contributing experts Regime shifts authors
Abdelrahim, Sarah – US Department of the Interior Steven Alexander, Sara Andersson, Reinette Biggs,
Amundsen, Helene – Centre for International Climate Thorsten Blencker, Lara Dominguez, Hannah
and Environmental Research Griffiths, Katharina Fryers Hellquist, Elinor Holén,
Behe, Carolina – Inuit Circumpolar Council, Alaska Linn Järnberg, Sophie Laggan, Noah Linder, Linda
Bickford, Annette – York University, Toronto Lindström, Katja Malmborg, Susa Niiranen, Hening
Blom, Anders – Protect Sápmi Nolzen, Daniel Ospina, Rolands Sadauskis, Karl
Carson, Marcus – Stockholm Environment Institute Samuelsson, Albinus Søgaard, Jessica Spijkers, Patricia
Chapin, F. Stuart III – University of Alaska Fairbanks Villarrubia Gomez, Johanna Yletinen
Clark, Douglas – University of Saskatchewan
Clement, Joel – US Department of the Interior Case study authors
Cornell, Sarah – Stockholm Resilience Centre Hanna Ahlström, Rawaf Al Rawaf, Derek Armitage,
Downing, Andrea – Stockholm Resilience Centre Dag Avango, Svetlana Avelova, Heather Bell, Adrian
Forbes, Bruce – Arctic Centre, University of Lapland Braun, Clara Burgard, Christopher Cosgrove, Daniele
Fresco Nancy – University of Alaska Fairbanks Crimella, Enoil de Sousa Júnior, Anna Degteva, Lara
Gamble, Jim, – Aleut International Association Dominguez, Níels Einarsson, Viktoriia Filippova,
Goodwin, Willie – Arctic Waterways Safety Committee Melanie Flynn, Jonas Gren, Hannah Griffiths, Gustav
/ Beluga Whale Committee Grusell, Larry Hamilton, Elin Högström, Elinor Holén,
Gunn, Anne – CircumArctic Collaboration to Monitor Henry P. Huntington, Hanna Linnéa Kylin, Matilda
Caribou and Wild Reindeer Lenell, Katrin Lindbäck, Linda Lindström, Cornelia
Hovelsrud, Grete K. – Nord University Ludwig, Tobias Luthe, Katja Malmborg, Svein D.
Huitric, Miriam – Stockholm Resilience Centre Mathiesen, Viveca Mellegård, Yasir Muhammad, Tero
Kelman, Ilan – University College of London/ Mustonen, George Noongwook, Julia Olsen, Roweena
University of Agder Patel, Aliaksei Patonia, Shealagh Pope, Kaitlyn
Kofinas, Gary – University of Alaska Fairbanks Rathwell, Fernando Remolina, Stine Rybråten, Carmen
Koivurova, Timo – Arctic Centre, University of Lapland Seco Pérez, Nikolas Sellheim, Philipp Siegel, Jessica
Lefevre, Jessica – Alaska Eskimo Whaling Commission/ Spijkers, Dries Stevens, Andrea Utas, Lize-Marié van
Arctic Waterways Safety Committee der Watt, Liliia Vinokurova, Kate Williman, Alexander
Lovecraft, Amy Lauren – University of Alaska Winkler, Alla Yurova.
Fairbanks
Mathiesen, Svein D. – Arctic Institute for Circumpolar Reviewers
Reindeer Husbandry Thomas Axworthy – InterAction Council and Public
McGovern, Thomas H. – Hunter College, The City Policy Chair, Massey College, University of Toronto
University of New York Fikret Berkes – University of Manitoba
McLennan, Donald – Polar Knowledge Canada Annette Bickford – York University, Toronto
Meek, Chanda L. – University of Alaska Fairbanks Anne-Sophie Crépin – Beijer Institute of Ecological
Mustonen, Tero – SnowChange Economics and Stockholm Resilience Centre
Nilsson, Annika E. – Stockholm Environment Institute Gail Fondhal – University of Northern British
Perl, Ashley – Stockholm Resilience Centre Columbia
Peterson, Garry – Stockholm Resilience Centre Willie Goodwin – Arctic Waterways Safety Committee/
Petrov, Andrey, N. – University of Northern Iowa Beluga Whale Committee
Prior, Tahnee – Balsillie School of International Affairs Henry Huntington – Huntington Consulting
Quinlan, Allyson – Carleton University Ilan Kelman – University College of London and
Rocha, Juan Carlos – Stockholm Resilience Centre University of Agder
Sellheim, Nikolas Arctic Centre – University of Lapland Jessica Lefevre – Alaska Eskimo Whaling Commission/
Sommerkorn, Martin – WWF Arctic Programme Arctic Waterways Safety Committee
Strambo, Claudia – Stockholm Environment Institute Nathanael Melia – PDRA, Department of Meteorology,
Veazey, Alice – University of Alaska Fairbanks University of Reading
Yurova, Alla – Nansen International Environmental and Egbert van Nes – Wageningen University
Remote Sensing Centre and Saint Petersburg State James Overland – National Oceanic and Atmospheric
University Administration (Pacific Marine Environmental
Laboratory)
Gunn-Britt Retter – Saami Council
Adam Stepien – Arctic Centre, University of Lapland
John Walsh – University of Alaska Fairbanks
Paul Wassman – The Arctic University of Norway
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Acknowledgements
We gratefully acknowledge the financial support provided to this project from: the Swedish Environ-
mental Protection Agency, the Swedish Research Council (Formas), the Nordic Council of Ministers,
the US Department of the Interior and the US Geological Survey.
We also thank our collaborating partners for their support and vital contributions to the development
of this report: the University of the Arctic; International Arctic Science Committee’s programme on
the International Study of Arctic Change; the International Arctic Social Science Association; the
European Environment Agency; and the WWF Global Arctic Programme.
We would also like to express our appreciation for supplemental financing for the project. The US
Arctic Research Commission generously covered travel expenses to enable participation in the June
2015 participatory workshop. We also wish to extend a special thanks to WWF; the University of
Alaska Fairbanks; the University of Saskatchewan; the Arctic Centre, University of Lapland; Nord
University; the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research – Oslo (CICERO);
and Balsillie School of International Affairs for supporting the efforts of lead authors at their respec-
tive institutions or organizations. We also thank those institutions that supported the work of the
contributing authors.
We would also like to thank Volker Rachold and the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC)
for organizing the formal peer review process for the report, as well as the many reviewers whose feed-
back was indispensible for ensuring the accuracy and quality of the report. The process organized by
IASC was carried out as a blind peer review. However, we have acknowledged by name the reviewers
who did not feel it necessary to remain anonymous subsequent to providing their reviews. Several
additional reviewers were also enlisted during the course of the work to supplement and strengthen
specific chapters, including reviewers from the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme.
Finally, we would like to thank Erika Larsen for generously providing access to photos from her
project “Sámi: The People Who Walk with Reindeer”. To learn more about the project, visit http://
www.erikalarsenphoto.com/works/sami-walking-with-reindeer/.
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Table of Contents
Acknowledgements v
Foreword viii
Arctic Resilience Report Executive Summary ix
Glossary of terms xvii
Humans in Nature – Arctic Social-Ecological Systems
PART I 1
CHAPTER 1 An Arctic Resilience Assessment 2
Key Messages 2
1.1 What’s new about Arctic change? 3
1.2 Resilience 5
1.3 A systems perspective 9
1.4 Feedbacks: proximity, cascades and co-evolution 14
1.5 Navigating Arctic change 19
1.6 Overview of the report 22
References 23
CHAPTER 2 Multiple Arctics: Resilience in a region of diversity and dynamism 27
Key Messages 27
2.1 One Arctic, or many? 28
2.2 Recognizing resilience 32
2.3 Multiple Arctics, shared responsibility 46
References 54
The Drama of Change
PART II 63
CHAPTER 3 Arctic regime shifts and resilience 64
Key messages 64
3.1 What’s new in the Arctic 65
3.2 Regime shifts 66
3.3 Arctic regime shifts 67
3.4 Response options 85
3.5 Impacts of Arctic regime shifts outside the Arctic 89
3.6 Enhancing understanding of regime shifts 89
CHAPTER 4 What factors build or erode resilience in the Arctic? 96
Key messages 96
4.1 Introduction 97
4.2 Comparing case studies across the Arctic 99
4.3 How the case studies were coded and analysed 111
4.4 Case studies and cross-scale dynamics 117
4.5 Implications of the resilience assessment 120
4.6 Lessons for supporting Arctic resilience 121
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The Policy Context: Shaping Change
PART III 127
CHAPTER 5 Shared decision-making in a changing Arctic political landscape 128
Key Messages 128
5.1 Introduction and aim of the chapter 129
5.2 Deliberately shaping change: “governance” in social-ecological systems 129
5.3 The changing context for governing in the Arctic 132
5.4 Connectivity across scales and space 138
5.5 Deliberate choices: summary and conclusions 143
References 144
CHAPTER 6 Learning to live with change 147
Key Messages 147
6.1 Introduction 148
6.2 Case examples 148
6.3 Discussion 154
6.4 Summary and conclusions 159
References  160
Building Resilience for Responding to Change
PART IV 163
CHAPTER 7 Building capacity to adapt to and shape change 164
Key messages 164
7.1 Resilience, adaptive capacity, and the Arctic Council 165
7.2 Facets of adaptive and transformative capacity 166
7.3 The Arctic Council’s role in strengthening adaptive capacity 172
7.4 Conclusion and knowledge gaps 176
CHAPTER 8 Building resilience in the Arctic: From theory to practice 180
Key Messages 180
8.1 Introduction 181
8.2 Resilience definitions and their implications 183
8.3 Principles for applying resilience theory 183
8.4 Cross-cutting heuristics 185
8.5 Practices for building resilience 189
8.6 From resilience theory to practice: Looking ahead 202
References 203
Appendices
209
vii
Foreword
Life in the Arctic has always been defined by change and uncertainty. The seasons transform the land-
scape, the weather is unpredictable, and conditions can shift abruptly, sometimes dangerously. Yet
the Arctic is now changing at an unprecedented pace, on multiple levels, in ways that fundamentally
affect both people and ecosystems.
This report is the culmination of a five-year effort to better understand the nature of Arctic change,
including critical tipping points, as well as the factors that support resilience, and the kinds of choices
that strengthen adaptive capacity. Because local changes are nested in larger-scale processes, it is
especially important that interactions across scales are better understood.
Resilience features prominently in three major international agreements reached in 2015: the Sus-
tainable Development Goals, the Paris Agreement on climate change, and the Sendai Framework for
Disaster Risk Reduction. The Paris Agreement alone mentions resilience six times, recognizing that
climate change impacts already in the pipeline will require both humans and nature to adapt.
The changes happening in the Arctic today are driven primarily by external factors. Climate change
is the most pervasive and powerful driver of change, but many other environmental changes are
taking place as well, alongside rapid social and economic developments. In some contexts, factors
such as resource demand, transportation needs, migration, geopolitical changes and globalization are
making the greatest impact on the Arctic. Indeed, many Arctic social-ecological systems face multiple
stressors at once.
Slowing Arctic change and building resilience are thus crucial for the people and ecosystems of the
Arctic – but the report also highlights the stakes for the world as a whole. Arctic social and bio-
physical systems are deeply intertwined with our planet’s social and biophysical systems, so rapid,
dramatic and unexpected changes in this sensitive region are likely to be felt elsewhere. As we are
often reminded, what happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay in the Arctic.
The Arctic Resilience Report is the final output of a process set in motion at the start of the Swed-
ish Chairmanship of the Arctic Council (2011–2013). The project has been led by the Stockholm
Environment Institute and the Stockholm Resilience Centre, in collaboration with the Resilience
Alliance. It has been pursued in consultation with Arctic countries and Indigenous Peoples, and has
included collaboration with several Arctic scientific organizations.
An integral part of the assessment is to identify policy and management options that may be needed
for strengthening resilience, for adaptation, and for transformational change when this is necessary.
We hope this work will inform, inspire and lay the groundwork for collaborative action.
Johan Rockström Joel Clement
Executive Director Director
Stockholm Resilience Centre Office of Policy Analysis,
Co-chair of the ARR Project US Department of the Interior
Steering Committee Co-chair of the ARR Project
Steering Committee
viii