Appendix D Rainfall-runoff model summaries

362 Pages·2012·5.16 MB·English

Project: Development of Hydrological Design Aids (Surface Water) under HP-II
Document: 2009097/WR/REP-02 July 2010
State of the Art Report Revision: R
0

Contents

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY..................................................................................................... ES-i to x

CHAPTERS
1. INTRODUCTION 1-1
1.1 Background of the Project................................................................................. 1-1
1.2 Need for Development of HDAs....................................................................... 1-1
1.3 Hydrological Studies Required for a Water Resources Project......................... 1-2
1.4 Design Parameters for Development of HDA................................................... 1-3
1.5 Scope and Methodology for the Consultancy.................................................... 1-5

2. PREVALENT DESIGN CRITERIA AND PRACTICES: THE INDIAN
PERSPECTIVE......................................................................................................... 2.1-1
2.1 Assessment of Water Resources Potential – Availability / Yield Assessment.. 2.1-1
2.1.1 Approach…………………………………………………………. 2.1-1
2.1.2 Hydrological data type and extent of hydrological inputs………... 2.1-1
2.1.3 Compilation and Hydrological Data Processing…………………. 2.1-2
2.1.3.1 Filling of short data gaps…………………………………………. 2.1‐2
2.1.3.2 Adjustment of records……………………………………………. 2.1-3
2.1.3.3 Consistency of data………………………………………………. 2.1-5
2.1.3.4 Data Extension…………………………………………………… 2.1-6
2.1.3.5 Data Generation…………………………………………………... 2.1-7
2.1.4 Water Availability Assessment…………………………………... 2.1-7
2.1.5 Continuous simulation Models / related data processing model
developed in India……………………………………………….. 2.1-8
2.1.5.1 HYPRO package………………………………………………….. 2.1-8
2.1.5.2 Water Yield Model (WYM)……………………………………… 2.1-8
2.1.6 Rainfall-Runoff Models developed for some regions in India…… 2.1-9
2.1.7 Design Practices adopted by State Government for yield
estimation in India……………………………………………….. 2.1-11
2.1.8 State-of-the-Art technology developed in various parts of the
world and applied in Indian catchments by various Premier
Research Institutes of India……………………………………… 2.1-13
2.1.9 Snowmelt Hydrology…………………………………………….. 2.1-16
2.1.9.1 Introduction………………………………………………………. 2.1-16
2.1.9.2 Snowmelt Modelling……………………………………………... 2.1-16
2.1.9.3 SWAT snowmelt hydrology……………………………………… 2.1-19
2.2 Estimation of Design Flood…………………………………………………… 2.2-1
2.2.1 General……………………………………………………………. 2.2-1
2.2.1.1 Objectives of Design Flood Estimation…………………………... 2.2-1
2.2.2 Literature Review………………………………………………… 2.2-1
2.2.2.1 General……………………………………………………………. 2.2-1
2.2.2.2 Previous Practices in India……………………………………….. 2.2-2
2.2.2.2.1 Project Categorization……………………………………………. 2.2-2
2.2.2.2.2 Empirical Formulae………………………………………………. 2.2-2
2.2.2.2.3 Rational Formula…………………………………………………. 2.2-3
2.2.2.3 Current Design Flood Estimation Criteria/Practices……………... 2.2-3
2.2.2.3.1 General……………………………………………………………. 2.2-3
2.2.2.3.2 Central Water Commission (CWC)………………………………. 2.2-3
2.2.2.3.3 Bureau of Indian Standards (BIS)………………………………... 2.2-17
2.2.2.4 Design Flood Estimation Approaches……………………………. 2.2-18
2.2.2.4.1 Flood Formulae…………………………………………………… 2.2-18
  i  WATER RESOURCES
Project: Development of Hydrological Design Aids (Surface Water) under HP-II
Document: 2009097/WR/REP-02 July 2010
State of the Art Report Revision: R
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2.2.2.4.2 Probabilistic/Statistical Approach (Index Flood Method)………... 2.2-19
2.2.2.4.3 Hydrometeorological Approach………………………………….. 2.2-21
2.2.2.4.4 Regional Flood Frequency Analysis……………………………… 2.2-22
2.2.2.5 Estimation of Snowmelt Contribution……………………………. 2.2-23
2.2.2.5.1 GLOF……………………………………………………………... 2.2-26
2.2.2.6 Design Flood for Urban and Agricultural Catchments…………… 2.2-30
2.2.2.6.1 Urban Catchments………………………………………………... 2.2-30
2.2.2.6.2 Agricultural Catchments………………………………………….. 2.2-30
2.2.2.7 Climate Change Effects…………………………………………... 2.2-32
2.2.3 Reviews and Recommendations………………………………….. 2.2-32
2.2.3.1 Suggested Design Flood Estimation Criteria…………………….. 2.2-32
2.2.3.2 Procedures for determining PMF………………………………… 2.2-33
2.2.3.3 Procedures for determining T-Year Flood………………………... 2.2-33
2.2.4 Conclusions………………………………………………………. 2.2-34
2.3 Sedimentation Rate Estimation………………………………………………... 2.3-1
2.3.1 Introduction………………………………………………………. 2.3-1
2.3.2 Silting Rate for Planning Indian Reservoirs……………………… 2.3-1
2.3.2.1 Direct Measurement of Sediment in River……………………….. 2.3-1
2.3.2.2 Reservoir Capacity Survey……………………………………….. 2.3-2
2.3.2.2.1 Modern Techniques of Surveying: HYDAC 3 (Hydrographic data
Acquisition system)……………………………………………… 2.3-3
2.3.2.2.2 Remote Sensing…………………………………………………... 2.3-3
2.3.2.3 Results from River/Reservoir Sediment Data……………………. 2.3-3
2.3.2.4 Prediction of Rate of Reservoir Sedimentation………………….. 2.3-6
2.3.2.5 GIS Applications for Determination of Sediment Yeild…………. 2.3-8
2.3.3 Trap Efficiency…………………………………………………… 2.3-9
2.3.4 Predicting Sediment Distribution in Reservoir…………………… 2.3-9
2.3.5 Life of Reservoirs………………………………………………… 2.3-10
2.3.6 Planning Practices for Reservoir Sedimentation in India………… 2.3-10
2.3.7 Practices Adopted By State Governments………………………... 2.3-13
2.3.8 Conclusion……………………………………………………….. 2.3-14

3. PREVALENT DESIGN CRITERIA AND PRACTICES:
THE INTERNATIONAL PERSPECTIVE……………………………………… 3-1
3.1 Assessment of Water Resources Potential – Availability / Yield Assessment.. 3-1
3.1.1 Approach to the assessment of Water Resources Potential………. 3-1
3.1.2 Climate change impacts on river flows…………………………... 3-6
3.1.3 Data requirements & data management…………………………... 3-6
3.1.4 Rainfall-runoff modelling………………………………………… 3-36
3.1.5 Water resources system modelling……………………………….. 3-36
3.1.6 River basin modelling……………………………………………. 3-37
3.1.7 Snow melt runoff modelling……………………………………… 3-38
3.1.8 Glacier melt runoff modelling……………………………………. 3-50
3.1.9 Recommendations………………………………………………... 3-53
3.1.10 References………………………………………………………... 3-54
3.2 Estimation of Design Flood………………………………………………….. 3-61
3.2.1 Approach to Design Flood Estimation (hydro-meteorological;
statistical; regional)……………………………………………… 3-61
3.2.2 Overview of Methods for Estimation of the Design Flood………. 3-68
3.2.3 Estimation of Hypothetical Floods……………………………….. 3-69
3.2.4 Estimation of Probabilistic Floods……………………………….. 3-72
3.2.5 Regional Flood Frequency Analysis……………………………… 3-76
3.2.6 Flood Wave Propagation…………………………………………. 3-77
3.2.7 Impact of snow melt contribution on Design Flood 3-78
(Includes GLOF and cloud burst flood)…………………………..
  ii  WATER RESOURCES
Project: Development of Hydrological Design Aids (Surface Water) under HP-II
Document: 2009097/WR/REP-02 July 2010
State of the Art Report Revision: R
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3.2.8 Development of Design Flood Hydrograph for Agricultural 3-79
and Urban catchments…………………………………………….
3.2.9 Stationarity, trend and climate change…………………………… 3-79
3.2.10 Glossary…………………………………………………………... 3-81
3.2.11 References………………………………………………………... 3-83
3.3 Sedimentation Rate Estimation……………………………………………….. 3-87
3.3.1 General Concepts…………………………………………………. 3-87
3.3.2 Availability of Standards and Guidance………………………….. 3-89
3.3.3 Current Practice is different in different parts of world………….. 3-89
3.3.4 Historic development of reservoir sedimentation methods………. 3-90
3.3.5 Estimation of sediment yield……………………………………... 3-91
3.3.6 Assessment of sedimentation rates………………………………. 3-96
3.3.7 Increasing emphasis on mitigation methods……………………… 3-100
3.3.8 References………………………………………………………... 3-101

4. PROPOSED HYDROLOGICAL DESIGN PRACTICES……………………… 4-1
4.1 General……………………………………………………………………….. 4-1
4.2 Assessment of water resources potential – availability (HDA1)…………….. 4-1
4.2.1 Criteria With Checklist for choosing an established tool………… 4-2
4.2.2 Recommended Procedure………………………………………… 4-4
4.2.2.1 Pre-processing Functions………………………………………… 4-4
4.2.2.2 Techniques for Filling in Missing data…………………………… 4-4
4.2.2.3 Consistency test functions………………………………………... 4-5
4.2.2.4 Hind-casting of stream flow records where Precipitation data is
Available…………………………………………………………. 4-5
4.2.2.5 Synthetic flow Generation………………………………………... 4-6
4.2.2.6 Naturalisation of Flow……………………………………………. 4-6
4.2.2.7 Rainfall Runoff Modelling……………………………………….. 4-7
4.2.3 Proposed Models-Description & Data Requirements……………. 4-12
4.3 Design flood Estimation (HDA2)…………………………………………….. 4-13
4.3.1 General……………………………………………………………. 4-13
4.3.2 Estimation of PMF & SPF & T-year Flood………………………. 4-13
4.3.3 Urban & Agriculture Catchments………………………………… 4-17
4.3.4 Road Map for Design Flood Estimation (HDA-2)……………….. 4-18
4.4 Sediment Rate Estimation (HDA-3)………………………………………….. 4-22
4.4.1 Estimation of Sediment Yield…………………………………….. 4-22
4.4.2 Distribution of Sediment in reservoir…………………………….. 4-23
4.4.3 Proposed Road Map (HDA-3)……………………………………. 4-24

TABLES

Table 2.1 Rainfall runoff ratios for different surface conditions…………………….. 2.1-9
Table 2.2 Commonly used formulae………………………………………………… 2.2-2
Table 2.3 Decisive Parameters for Various purposes………………………………... 2.2-4
Table 2.4 Design Flood Values……………………………………………………… 2.2-6
Table 2.5 Comparison of Design Criteria……………………………………………. 2.2-8
Table 2.6 Comparison of Procedures for Design Flood Estimation…………………. 2.2-9
Table 2.7 Consequence Classification of Dams……………………………………... 2.2-12
Table 2.8 Synthetic UG Relations for Small/Medium Catchments………………….. 2.2-14
Table 2.9 Regional Flood Formulae for Small/Medium Catchment………………… 2.2-15
Table 2.10 Comparison of Goodness of fit Tests……………………………………... 2.2-20
Table 2.11 Comparison of Snowmelt Runoff…………………………………………. 2.2-25
Table 2.12 Characteristics of identified urban runoff models………………………… 2.2-31
Table 2.13 Region wise Sedimentation Rate in India…………………………………. 2.3-4
Table 3.1 Main data types used in water resources assessment……………………… 3-13
  iii  WATER RESOURCES
Project: Development of Hydrological Design Aids (Surface Water) under HP-II
Document: 2009097/WR/REP-02 July 2010
State of the Art Report Revision: R
0

Table 3.2 Hydraulic models and their data requirements……………………………. 3-15
Table 3.3 Types of data to which QAS apply………………………………………... 3-16
Table 3.4 Description of the steps taken for each level of quality assurance………... 3-17
Table 3.5 Guidelines for limits of infilling data where gaps or errors exist…………. 3-19
Table 3.6 Example methods of correcting or infilling gaps in data, their suitability
and application……………………………………………………………. 3-21
Table 3.7 Details relating to catchments, catchment observed-flow series (gauged
and naturalised) and model calibration periods…………………………... 3-29
Table 3.8 Form for identification of character of a catchment (Environment
Agency, 2001)……………………………………………………………. 3-33
Table 3.9 Advantages and disadvantages of the two main approaches to melt
Modelling…………………………………………………………………. 3-43
Table 3.10 Application of various sensors for particular snow properties……………. 3-46
Table 3.11 Classification of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Projects in China... 3-62
Table 3.12 Classification of hydraulic structures in China……………………………. 3-63
Table 3.13 Design flood criteria for permanent structures in China………………….. 3-63
Table 3.14 Check design flood criteria for permanent structures in China…………… 3-63
Table 3.15 Design flood and Check design flood criteria for powerhouse and
non-damming structures in China………………………………………… 3-64
Table 3.16 Design flood criteria for temporary structures in China…………………... 3-64
Table 3.17 French dam safety assessment criteria……………………………………. 3-64
Table 3.18 Polish dam safety assessment criteria…………………………………….. 3-66
Table 3.19 UK dam safety assessment criteria………………………………………... 3-67
Table 3.20 US Federal recommended spillway design floods………………………… 3-68
Table 4.1 Checklist Matrix for Rainfall –Runoff models…………………………… 4-2
Table 4.2 Checklist Matrix for Water resources system models…………………….. 4-3
Table 4.3 Checklist matrix for River Basin models…………………………………. 4-4

FIGURES

Figure 2.1 Schematic diagram of monthly runoff model……………………………... 2.1-17
Figure 2.2 Simplified flow chart of vertical balance within each ASA………………. 2.1-19
Figure 2.3 Sub-Zonal Map of India for Small/Medium Catchments flood studies…... 2.2-16
Figure 2.4 Map of India showing zone wise sedimentation rate……………………… 2.3-5
Figure 2.5 Iso-erosion rate (in Tonnes km-2yr-1) map of India (Garde and
Kothyari,1987)…………………………………………………………… 2.3-8
Figure 3.1 Locations of the 15 catchments used in Jones et al. (2006)……………… 3-28
Figure 3.2 Reconstructed and measured river flow on the River Exe from 1907-11… 3-31
Figure 3.3 fundamental operations involved in modelling snowmelt………………... 3-40
Figure 3.4 Generalized depositional zones in a reservoir…………………………….. 3-88
Figure 3.5 Formation of fluvial delta in Lake Mead, USA – Smith et al (1954)……... 3-88
Figure 3.6 Average annual sediment yield versus drainage area for semiarid areas of
the United States (Strand and Pemberton 1987)…………………………. 3-90
Figure 3.7 Sediment yield map for India (Shangle, 1991)……………………………. 3-93
Figure 3.8 Relationship between reservoir hydrologic size (capacity: inflow ratio)
and sediment-trapping efficiency by Brune and the Sedimentation index
approach by Churchill (Strand and Pemberton 1987)………………….. 3-97

Figure 3.9 Churchill curve for estimating sediment release efficiency
(adapted from Churchill 1948)…………………………………………… 3-97
Figure 3.10 Temporal development of delta growth upstream of Bakra Dam, India.
The rate of delta advance slows with time because Of the reservoir
geometry, which depends and broadens in the downstream direction…… 3-99

  iv  WATER RESOURCES
Project: Development of Hydrological Design Aids (Surface Water) under HP-II
Document: 2009097/WR/REP-02 July 2010
State of the Art Report Revision: R
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ANNEXURES
Annexure 2.1: Classification of Projects based the Type of Structure and on the
Contemplated Use of Water
Annexure 2.2: Commonly Used Methods for Consistency Tests
Annexure 2.3: Yield Estimation - Guideline for the Preparation of Preliminary
Water Balance Reports, NWDA, GOI, Nov 1991
Annexure 2.4: Yield Assessment - Manual on Planning and Design of Small
Hydroelectric Schemes, CBIP, India, 2001
Annexure 2.5: Yield Assessment - Hydrological Aspects in Project Planning and
Preparation of DPR, Training Directorate, CWC
Annexure 2.6: Model Structure of Water Yield Model (WYM)
Annexure 2.7: SHE Model
Annexure 2.8: SCS – CN Based Hydrological Model
Annexure 2.9: Tank Model
Annexure 2.10: Lumped Basin scale Water Balance Model
Annexure 2.11: SWAT Model
Annexure 2.12: Artificial Neural Networks in Rainfall – Runoff Modelling
Annexure 2.2-1: Practices by State Governments
Annexure 2.2-2: Flood Formulae
Annexure 2.2-3: Probabilistic approach for estimation of design flood
Annexure 2.2-4: Deterministic or Hydrometeorological approach for estimation of design
flood
Annexure 2.2-5: Regional flood frequency analysis (Ungauged Catchments)
Annexure 4.1: SWAT Model
Annexure 4.2: Water Rights Analysis Package (WRAP)
Annexure 4.3: HEC-HMS Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) Model
Annexure 4.4: Model E
Annexure 4.5: HEC-RESSIM
Annexure 4.6: Snowmelt Runoff Model WINSRM

APPENDICES
Appendix A Step-by-step guide to extending hydrological data
Appendix B Snow melt model summaries
Appendix C Case studies of snow melt model application and use
Appendix D Rainfall-runoff model summaries
Appendix E Hydraulic model summaries

  v  WATER RESOURCES
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Project: Development of Hydrological Design Aids (Surface Water) under HP-II
Document: 2009097/WR/REP-02 July 2010
State of the Art Report Revision: R
0

Executive Summary

Hydrology Projects I and II aim to ‘support major aspects of India’s National Water Policy,
particularly with regard to water allocation, and the planning and management of water resources
development at the national, state, basin, and individual project levels.

Hydrology Project-II is a sequel to its predecessor, Hydrology Project-I, which aimed to improve
hydrometeorological data collection procedures in nine states and six central agencies. Hydrology
Project-II builds upon the earlier project’s Hydrological Information System, through broadening the
area of application to thirteen states and eight central agencies, and through various ‘vertical
extension’ activities such as the current project. This project aims to develop Hydrological Design
Aids to improve upon current design practices and to standardise those practices for uniform use all
over the country. One of the first steps in enabling the development of such Hydrological Design Aids
is to assess the current, relevant, state-of-the-art in tools and techniques used in India and around the
world, and to review the international state-of-the-art with a view to transferring those tools and
techniques for use in India.

This report reviews the state of the art in the three key study areas: assessing water resource
availability; estimating the design flood; and sedimentation rate estimation. The assessment is
undertaken for the international context with reference to applicability in India.

The main purpose of this review of the state-of-the-art in the three key study areas is to inform the
process of development of three Hydrological Design Aids, one for each of those key study areas. The
international state of the art is reviewed to enable a comparison with the procedures currently being
carried out in India, and to help identify those techniques which would offer an improvement over
current methods and that could sensibly be transferred for use in India. The report makes specific
recommendations of those internationally employed tools and techniques that the authors believe to be
suitable for use in India.

The three matrices below (Tables 0.1-0.3) summarise the findings of the report. There is one matrix
per Hydrological Design Aid. Each matrix presents the tools and techniques for the Indian and
international contexts, grouped according to their areas of application. Each matrix, and each area of
application, also presents a priority for those tools and techniques that could sensibly and usefully be
employed as part of each Hydrological Design Aid under this project.

Table 0.1:Summary of state of the art techniques & tools used in assessment of water resources
potential

Area of application Techniques & tools Examples of techniques & Priority areas for
of techniques & used in Indian context tools used in international further work
tools context (High to Low)
(Low means that
Indian methods
are ‘state of the
art’)
Project pre-feasibility Strange’s Table Empirical calculations to High
stage Observed flow estimate seasonal flows, mean
Empirical formulae flow and low flows
ICAR formula for small
watersheds Rainfall-runoff models,
Thorrnthwaite Mather’s HYSIM
formula Water resource systems
models
ES - i WATER RESOURCES
Project: Development of Hydrological Design Aids (Surface Water) under HP-II
Document: 2009097/WR/REP-02 July 2010
State of the Art Report Revision: R
0

Area of application Techniques & tools Examples of techniques & Priority areas for
of techniques & used in Indian context tools used in international further work
tools context (High to Low)
(Low means that
Indian methods
are ‘state of the
art’)
AQUATOR
HEC-ResSim
River basin models, e.g.
MIKE BASIN
WRAP
IRAS
Project design stage Observed flows Rainfall-runoff models High
PDM
Rainfall Runoff models CatchMOD
Regression HEC-HMS
relationship IHACRES
HYSIM
NAM
SHE
SWAT
Hydraulic models
InfoWorks RS
InfoWorks ICM
Mike 11
SOBEK
Snowmelt model Snow melt runoff models
Simple conceptual Temperature-index
model - Degree day models HBV
method SRM
SLURP model SNOW-17
Energy balance approach
PRMS
SSARR- energy budget
method
Combined approach
NWS RFS
UBC Watershed model;
PREVAH.
Glacier melt runoff models
SRM-ETH;
WaSiM-ETH
HBV (glacier module)

ES - ii WATER RESOURCES
Project: Development of Hydrological Design Aids (Surface Water) under HP-II
Document: 2009097/WR/REP-02 July 2010
State of the Art Report Revision: R
0

Table 0.2:Summary of state of the art techniques used in the estimation of design flood

Area of Techniques and tools Techniques and tools used in Priority areas for
application of used in Indian context international context further work (
techniques High to Low)
and tools (Low means that
Indian are ‘state
of the art’)
Recommended Spillways of major and ICOLD: PMF as design standard
Approach medium dams: for large dams;
maximum probable
flood as derived using Australia: PMF-DF is design Low
unit hydrograph and flood for which probability of
maximum probable flood=probability of rainfall;
storm. Where Annual
Maximum flood series Canada: PMP for large dams,
is available, Probability WMO procedures as per
distribution methods Operational Hydrology Report
like Log Normal(2 and No. 1
3 parameters), Pearson, Low
Log Pearson and China: 5 project ranks
Gumbel for 10000 year based on scale, benefit &
flood are used. importance to economy;

Barrages and minor France: H√V (H= dam height, V Low
dams: standard project = storage capacity);
flood (SPF)/500 yr flood
for free board, 50 yr Germany: Spillway capacity fro
flood for remaining large dams=1000 yr flood;
aspects
Iran: 24 hr PMP estimates are
Miscellaneous hydraulic derived using statistical analysis
structures: 50-100 year with a frequency factor of 9.63.
flood to be used For basins of 1000 sq km and less
the statistical estimates are used
while for larger basins the
estimated derived on physical
basis are used.

Japan: For concrete dams larger
of,
200 yr flood at site
Maximum experienced at site
Maximum that can be expected
1000 yr flood for embankment
dams

Kenya: WMO recommended
procedures

Malaysia: PMF derived from
PMP;

Norway: Spillway capacity for
ES - iii WATER RESOURCES