Analyzing Crime Patterns: Frontiers of Practice

197 Pages·1999·13.5 MB·English

by  Victor Goldsmith

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Analyzing
Crime
Patterns
Frontiers of Practice
Victor Goldsmith
Philip G. McGuire
John H. Mollenkopf
Timothy A. Ross
Editors
/SvSage Publications, Inc.
l^VI International Educationaland Professional Publisher
Thousand Oaks • London • New Delhi
Copyright © 2000 by Sage Publications, Inc.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Main entry under title:
Analyzing crime patterns: Frontiers of practice / edited by Victor Goldsmith,
Philip McGuire, John Mollenkopf and Timothy A. Ross,
p. cm.
Includes bibliographical references (p. ) and index.
ISBN 0-7619-1940-6 (cloth: perm, paper)
ISBN 0-7619-1941-4 (pbk: perm, paper)
1. Crime analysis—United States. 2. Criminal statistics—United States.
3. Spatial behavior—United States. I. Goldsmith, Victor.
HV7936.C88 A53 1999
364'.042'0973—dc21 99-6533
This book is printed on acid-free paper.
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Acquiring Editor: Kassie Gavrilis
Editorial Assistant: Anna Howland
Production Editor: Sanford Robinson
Editorial Assistant: Karen Wiley
Typesetter/Designer: Lynn Miyata
Indexer: Molly Hall
Cover Designer: Michelle Lee
Contents
Foreword vii
Nancy G. La Vigne
Acknowledgments viii
PARTI. INTRODUCTION
Operational Imperatives and Intellectual Cautionary Tales 1
1. Using α Geographic Information System for
Tactical Crime Analysis 3
Philip Canter
2. The New York Police Department COMPSTAT Process:
Mapping for Analysis, Evaluation, and Accountability 1 1
Philip G. McGuire
3. Filters, Fears, and Photos: Speculations and Explorations
in the Geography of Crime 23
Keith Harries
4. The Spatial Analysis of Crime:
What Social Scientists Have Learned 33
Charles Swartz
PART II. ANALYZING CRIME HOT SPOTS IN NEW YORK 47
5. Finding Crime Hot Spots Through Repeat Address Mapping 49
John E. Eck, Jeffrey S. Gersh, and Charlene Taylor
6. Exploratory Data Analysis of Crime Patterns:
Preliminary Findings From the Bronx 65
Sanjoy Chakravorty and William V. Pelfrey Jr.
7. Identifying Crime Hot Spots Using Kernel Smoothing 77
Sara McLafferty, Doug Williamson, and Philip G. McGuire
8. The Utility of Standard Deviation Ellipses
for Evaluating Hot Spots 87
Robert H. Langworthy and Eric S. Jefferis
PART III. CRIME AND FACILITIES 105
9. Crime, Space, and Place:
An Analysis of Crime Patterns in Brooklyn 107
Thomas Kamber, John H. Mollenkopf, and Timothy A. Ross
10. Crime in Public Housing: Two-Woy Diffusion Effects
in Surrounding Neighborhoods 121
Jeffrey Fagan and Garth Davies
11. The Bronx and Chicago: Street Robbery in the Environs
of Rapid Transit Stations 137
Richard Block and Carolyn Rebecca Block
12. Schools and Crime 153
Dennis W. Roncek
PART IV. TOOLS FOR SPATIAL ANALYSIS 167
13. Evaluating Statistical Software for Analyzing
Crime Patterns and Trends 169
Doug Williamson, Timothy A. Ross, Sara McLafferty,
and Victor Goldsmith
Index 179
About the Authors 000
Foreword
The genesis for this book stems from one of the first Locally Initiated Research
Partnership grants funded by the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) in 1996. This
grant program challenged applicants to form partnerships between research entities
and law enforcement agencies to conduct research or evaluate a program of mutual
interest to both parties. The City University of New York's Center for Applied Stud­
ies of the Environment (CAPSE) and the Center for Urban Research (CUR) submit­
ted a proposal in partnership with the New York Police Department (NYPD) to
examine various crime-mapping methods in support of the NYPD's then newly
adopted COMPSTAT process.
NIJ was impressed with the interdisciplinary research team of CUR and
CAPSE staff, representing political scientists, sociologists, geologists, and geogra­
phers, as well as the practical application of the project. One of the noteworthy
elements of the CUR/CAPSE/NYPD project was that the grantees identified the top
researchers in the area of the spatial analysis of crime to draw on their expertise and
knowledge. The researchers were invited to a meeting in New York at which they
presented papers based on analyses of a geocoded data set of New York City crime.
The papers presented at that meeting became the chapters that comprise this book.
Coincidentally, at the same time that the CUR/CAPSE/NYPD grant was
awarded, NIJ established its Crime Mapping Research Center. This fortuitous tim­
ing brought many of the same people who attended the meeting in New York to a
meeting in Washington, D.C., just a few weeks later to help advise NIJ on how its
new center could best meet the needs of the criminal justice research and practi­
tioner communities. These meetings marked the beginning of a new and ambitious
research and programmatic effort that today is represented by $11 million in NIJ
grants for research involving the spatial analysis of crime and an annual conference
that in 1998 drew close to 800 participants.
Analyzing Crime Patterns exemplifies this renewed interest in the spatial analysis
of crime and criminal behavior, offering some of the best work in the field to date.
The chapters herein present findings and methods that range from practical applications
to the exploration of discrete measurement issues. This book is truly a frontier in
practice—one recommended to anyone interested in the spatial analysis of crime.
—Nancy G. La Vigne
Director, Crime Mapping Research Center
National Institute of Justice
vii
Acknowledgments
As with any book, the number of people to thank is enormous and the space to do
so is inadequate. We could easily use a page outlining the contributions of each of
the people in the following paragraphs.
Jeremy Travis and Nancy LaVigne at the National Institute of Justice funded
the conference at which papers for this book were first conceived and they provided
continued support for the partnership between the City University of New York
(CUNY) and the New York City Police Department (NYPD). The research reported
in chapters 2,7, 9, and 13 of this volume was supported by the National Institute of
Justice under grant 97-LB-VX-K013. Robert Langworthy provided valuable advice
while at NIJ. Sally Goodgold at the Police Foundation also facilitated the CUNY-
NYPD collaboration.
The NYPD provided data, technical support, and invaluable advice. We thank
Police Commissioners William Bratton and Howard Safir, Deputy Commissioners
Michael Farrell and Michael Amarosa, and Inspector William Batista. Police Offi­
cer Steve Quinn from the Management Information Systems Department deserves
a special acknowledgment for having the foresight to make the original connection
between NYPD and CUNY. Also from the NYPD, we thank John Yohe from the
COMPSTAT Unit and Rachel Jacobovitz, John Eterno, William Chimento, and Ed­
ward Alexander from the Office of Management and Planning.
Timothy Ross acknowledges the help of Kassie Gavrilis, Karen Wiley, Anna
Howland, Sanford Robinson, Lynn Miyata, Janelle LeMaster, and Terry Hendrix at
Sage Publications. Victoria Allen, Jennifer Holdaway, Tom Kamber, and Charles
Swartz were helpful colleagues at the Center for Urban Research. At CUNY's Cen­
ter for Applied Study of the Environment, Colin Reilly and Alicia Fierer provided
invaluable help.
The editors also thank family members for continued support, including Irma
Birnbaum, Chris McGuire, Kathleen Gerson, and Lori Urov.
viii
P A RT I
INTRODUCTION
Operational Imperatives and
Intellectual Cautionary Tales
Part
I provides an overview of mapping and geographic information systems in
crime analysis. The first two chapters are written by practitioners, and the latter two
contributions are from academics. Combined, they seek to give readers a thorough
background in the uses and vocabulary of crime mapping.
Chapter 1, by Philip Canter, outlines the type of data that need collecting and
then categorizes several methods used to analyze spatial crime data. Canter makes
important distinctions between tactical and strategic mapping. Tactical mapping is
used for short-term operations, whereas strategic mapping addresses longer term
policy planning. Canter also distinguishes between descriptive and analytic map­
ping. Canter points out that the types of data and the method used to analyze data
are driven by the types of questions that need to be answered.
Chapter 2, by Philip G. McGuire, discusses the integration of crime mapping
into the much-heralded COMPSTAT process used by the New York City Police
Department. He asserts that although the crime mapping aspect of COMPSTAT
receives most of the attention, COMPSTAT is primarily a managerial tool that co-
incidentally incorporates crime mapping as an integral part of executive oversight.
McGuire suggests that for mapping to reach its full potential, it must be integrated
into the standard operations of law enforcement rather than be kept separate as a
specialized unit.
1