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Analytical models for decision making PDF

248 Pages·2006·7.542 MB·English
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D o w n P UN Colin Sanderson load UBLIC DERS & Reinhold Gruen ed by [ Fac HEA TAN ulty of N LTH DIN ursing UNDERSTANDING PUBLIC HEALTH G , C h ia n g SERIES EDITORS:NICK BLACK & ROSALIND RAINE m a i U Analytical Models for There is an increasing niv e Decision Making global awareness of the rsity inevitable limits of A Analytical 5.62 Health care systems are complex and, as a individual health care and n .15 roefs cuhlta,n itg iess o inft epno luicnyc olera sre wrvhicaet pthroev eisfifoencts osuf cthh es enreveicde tso w ciothm epffleecmtievnet alytic 8.117] at [0 might be. At the same time, resources for public health strategies. a Models for 7/1 l 8 health care tend to be in short supply, Understanding Public Health M /16 which means that public health is an innovative series of o ]. C o practitioners have to make difficult twenty books, published by de pyrig dqeucainsitoitnast.i vTeh ias nbdo oqku adleitsactriivbee sm tehtehods that Ocoplleanb oUrnaitvioenrs iwtyit Phr ethsse in ls f Decision Making ht © M o c G can help decision makers to structure and London School of Hygiene r D raw cthlaer iifmy pdliifcfaictuioltn ps roofb pleumrsus ianngd d tioff eexrepnlotre &It pTrroovpiidceasl Mseelfd-dicirinecet.ed ecis -Hill Glo options. The accompanying CD-ROM learning covering the major io bal E provides the opportunity to try some of issues in public health n du M ca the proposed solutions. affecting low, middle and tio The book examines: high income countries. aki n Hold ◗ hMeoadltehl sc aanred decision making in Tsthued syeinrige sp ius baliimc ehdea altth t,hose ng ings, LL C ◗ Methods for clarifying complex either by distance learning . N o decisions or more traditional & t to C b ◗◗ rMMesoooddueerllcslie nf ogarl l fsooecrra vetivicoaenl upalatninngin cgh aanngdes mhpeoealtilchtyho mdpsra,a kacestri twsi.oenlle arss panudblic Reinh olin S e redistribu in systems old G ande ted or mo Colin Sandersonis Reader in Health Services ru rso dified Research and Reinhold Gruenis Honorary e n in n a n Senior Lecturer in Health Services y w a Management at the London School of y w Hygiene & Tropical Medicine. ith o u t p e rm issio n Cover design Hybert Design •www.hybertdesign.com . UNDERSTANDING PUBLIC HEALTH www.openup.co.uk D o w n lo a d e d b y [ F a c u lty o f N u rsin g , C h ia n g m a i U n iv e rsity 5 .6 2 .1 5 8 .1 1 7 ] a t [0 7 /1 8 /1 6 ]. C o p y rig h t © M c G ra w -H ill G lo b a l E d u c a tio n H o ld in g s, L L C . N o t to b e re d istrib u te d o r m o d ifie d in a n y w a y w ith o u t p e rm issio n . D o w n lo a d e d b y [ F a c u lty o Analytical Models for f N u rsin g Decision Making , C h ia n g m a i U n iv e rsity 5 .6 2 .1 5 8 .1 1 7 ] a t [0 7 /1 8 /1 6 ]. C o p y rig h t © M c G ra w -H ill G lo b a l E d u c a tio n H o ld in g s, L L C . N o t to b e re d istrib u te d o r m o d ifie d in a n y w a y w ith o u t p e rm issio n . D o w n lo a d e d b y Understanding Public Health [ F a c u Series editors: Nick Black and Rosalind Raine, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine lty o f N u Throughout the world, recognition of the importance of public health to sustainable, safe and rsin healthy societies is growing. The achievements of public health in nineteenth-century Europe were g, C for much of the twentieth century overshadowed by advances in personal care, in particular in hia hospital care. Now, with the dawning of a new century, there is increasing understanding of the ng m inevitable limits of individual health care and of the need to complement such services with effective a i U public health strategies. Major improvements in people’s health will come from controlling com- n municable diseases, eradicating environmental hazards, improving people’s diets and enhancing the ive availability and quality of effective health care. To achieve this, every country needs a cadre of know- rsity ledgeable public health practitioners with social, political and organizational skills to lead and bring 5.6 2 about changes at international, national and local levels. .1 5 8 This is one of a series of 20 books that provides a foundation for those wishing to join in and .11 7 contribute to the twenty-first-century regeneration of public health, helping to put the concerns and ] a perspectives of public health at the heart of policy-making and service provision. While each book t [0 7 stands alone, together they provide a comprehensive account of the three main aims of public health: /1 8 protecting the public from environmental hazards, improving the health of the public and ensuring /1 6 high quality health services are available to all. Some of the books focus on methods, others on key ]. C topics. They have been written by staff at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine with op y considerable experience of teaching public health to students from low, middle and high income rig h countries. Much of the material has been developed and tested with postgraduate students both in t © face-to-face teaching and through distance learning. M c G The books are designed for self-directed learning. Each chapter has explicit learning objectives, key ra w terms are highlighted and the text contains many activities to enable the reader to test their own -H understanding of the ideas and material covered. Written in a clear and accessible style, the series will ill G be essential reading for students taking postgraduate courses in public health and will also be of lo b interest to public health practitioners and policy-makers. al E d Titles in the series uc a tio Analytical models for decision making: Colin Sanderson and Reinhold Gruen n H Controlling communicable disease: Norman Noah old Economic analysis for management and policy: Stephen Jan, Lilani Kumaranayake, in g Jenny Roberts, Kara Hanson and Kate Archibald s, L Economic evaluation: Julia Fox-Rushby and John Cairns (eds) LC Environmental epidemiology: Paul Wilkinson (ed) . N o Environment, health and sustainable development: Megan Landon t to Environmental health policy: David Ball (ed) be Financial management in health services: Reinhold Gruen and Anne Howarth red GHleoabltahl ccharaen egvea alunadt hioena:l tSha:r Kahel Slemy iLthee, Danodn JSeifnf cClaoilrl,i nR o(esadlsi)nd Raine and Barnaby Reeves istribu te Health promotion practice: Wendy Macdowall, Chris Bonell and Maggie Davies (eds) d o Health promotion theory: Maggie Davies and Wendy Macdowall (eds) r m Introduction to epidemiology: Lucianne Bailey, Katerina Vardulaki, Julia Langham and od Daniel Chandramohan ifie d Introduction to health economics: David Wonderling, Reinhold Gruen and Nick Black in a Issues in public health: Joceline Pomerleau and Martin McKee (eds) n y Making health policy: Kent Buse, Nicholas Mays and Gill Walt w a y Managing health services: Nick Goodwin, Reinhold Gruen and Valerie Iles w Medical anthropology: Robert Pool and Wenzel Geissler ith o Principles of social research: Judith Green and John Browne (eds) ut p Understanding health services: Nick Black and Reinhold Gruen erm issio n . D o w n lo a d e d b y [ F a c u lty o Analytical Models for f N u rsin g Decision Making , C h ia n g m a i U n iv e rsity 5 .6 2 .1 5 Colin Sanderson and Reinhold Gruen 8.1 1 7 ] a t [0 7 /1 8 /1 6 ]. C o p y rig h t © M c G ra w -H ill G lo b a l E d u c a tio n H o ld in g s, L L C . N o t to b e re d istrib u te d o r m o d ifie d in a n y w a y w ith o u t p Open University Press erm issio n . D o w n lo a d e d b y Open University Press [ F McGraw-Hill Education ac u McGraw-Hill House lty o Shoppenhangers Road f N u Maidenhead rsin Berkshire g, C England h ia SL6 2QL ng m a email: [email protected] i U n world wide web: www.openup.co.uk iv e and Two Penn Plaza, New York, NY 10121-2289, USA rsity 5 .6 2 .1 5 8 First published 2006 .11 7 ] a Copyright © London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine 2006 t [0 7 /1 All rights reserved. Except for the quotation of short passages for the purpose of 8 /1 criticism and review, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a 6]. C retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, o p mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior written yrig permission of the publisher or a licence from the Copyright Licensing Agency ht © Limited. Details of such licences (for reprographic reproduction) may be obtained M c from the Copyright Licensing Agency Ltd of 90 Tottenham Court Road, London G ra W1T 4LP. w -H A catalogue record of this book is available from the British Library ill G lo b ISBN-10: 0 335 21845 8 (pb) al E ISBN-13: 978 0 335 218 455 (pb) d u c a Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data tio n CIP data applied for H o ld Typeset by RefineCatch Limited, Bungay, Suffolk ing Printed in Poland by OZGraf S.A. s, L L www.polskabook.pl C. N o t to b e re d istrib u te d o r m o d ifie d in a n y w a y w ith o u t p e rm issio n . D o w n lo a d e d Contents by [ F a c u lty o f N u rsin g , C h ia n g m Overview of the book 1 ai U n iv Section 1 Models and decision making in health care ersity 1 The role of models 7 5.6 2 2 Building a decision support model 28 .1 5 3 Strategic Options Development and Analysis 43 8.1 1 7 ] a Section 2 Methods for clarifying complex decisions t [0 7 /1 4 Many criteria 65 8 /1 5 Uncertainty 84 6]. C 6 Risk 103 o p y rig Section 3 Models for service planning and resource allocation ht © M 7 Population need for a specific service 121 c G 8 Balanced service provision 142 ra w 9 Hospital models 164 -H ill G Section 4 Modelling for evaluating changes in systems lob a l E 10 Modelling flows through systems 181 d u c 11 Irregular flows: systems with queues 202 atio 12 Outline review 223 n H o Glossary 227 ldin g Index 231 s, L L C . N o t to b e re d istrib u te d o r m o d ifie d in a n y w a y w ith o u t p e rm issio n . D o w n lo a d e d b y [ F a c u lty o f N u rsin g , C h ia n g m a i U n iv e rsity 5 .6 2 .1 5 8 .1 1 7 ] a t [0 7 /1 8 /1 6 ]. C o p y rig h t © M c G ra w -H ill G lo b a l E d u c a tio n H o ld in g s, L L C . N o t to b e re d istrib u te d o r m o d ifie d in a n y w a y w ith o u t p e rm issio n . D o w n lo a d e d Acknowledgements by [ F a c u lty o f N u rsin g , C h ia n g m Open University Press and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine have ai U made every effort to obtain permission from copyright holders to reproduce material in n iv tahttiesn btoioonk wanilld b teo r eamckendoiewdl eidng feu ttuhrees ee dsiotiuornces.s correctly. Any omissions brought to our ersity 5 .6 2 We would like to express our grateful thanks to the following copyright holders for .1 5 granting permission to reproduce material in this book. 8.1 1 7 p.18 Bcoemnspleuyt eDr-Csi,m Wualtastoionn P mS aondde lM ofo rtrhieso pno GteWnt,i a‘Pl aftohr whaeyaslt ohf gcaoirno’n, Maryat chaerme –a ta- ] at [07 /1 ics Medicine and Biology, Vol 12, pp315–28, 1993, by permission of 8/1 pp.155–6 OS xCfroorpdp Uenr iavnerds itPy FPorerstes. (eds), Enhancing Health Service Management, 6]. Co p ©O p1e9n9 7U,n Oivpeernsi tUyn Pirveesrss.ity Press. Reproduced with the kind permission of yrigh p.68 Cushman M and Rosenhead J, 2004, ‘Planning in the face of politics: t © M reshaping children’s health services in Inner London’ in Brandeau M et al c G (eds), Handbook of Operations Research and Health Care. Springer ra w Science + Business Media. -H p.192 Doll et al, British Medical Journal, 2004, Vol 328, pp 1519–1528. Repro- ill G duced with permission from the BMJ Publishing Group lo b pp.133–6 Reprinted with permission from Elsevier (The Lancet, 1999, Vol 353, al E pp1304–9) d u c pp.52–4 Gains A, and Rosenhead J, LSEOR Working Paper 93.8 ‘Problem structur- a ing for medical quality assurance’, LSEOR, 1993 tion H p.167,175 Gruen RP, Constantinovici N, Normand C and Lamping DL, ‘Costs o ld for dialysis for elderly people in the UK’, Nephrology Dialysis Trans- in g plantation, 18, 2122–2127, by permission from Oxford University Press. s, L pp.1–6 Lane D, Monefeldt C & Rosenhead J, Looking in the wrong place for L C healthcare improvements: a system dynamics study of an accident and . N o emergency department, 2000, Journal of the Operational Research Soci- t to ety, reproduced with permission of Palgrave Macmillan b e pp.18–20 Luckman J and Stringer J, ‘The operational research approach to problem re d sOoxlvfoinrdg ’U, Bnriviteisrhsi tMy Perdeiscsa.l Bulletin, 1974, 30, 257–261, by permission of istribu pp.57–59,93 Rational analaysis for a problematic world revisited, Rosenhead J and ted o Mingers J (editors). 2001, © John Wiley & Sons Limited. Reproduced with r m permission. o d p.137 Sanderson C, ‘Limitations of epidemiological needs assessment: the case ifie d of prostatectomy,’ Medical Care, 35:669-85 by permission of Lippincott in Williams and Wilkins. an y pp.24–6 Sterman J, Business dynamics: systems thinking and modelling for a w a complex world, 2000, Mc-Graw-Hill Education, reproduced with permis- y w sion of The McGraw-Hill Companies. ith o p.171 Soderlund Neil et al, British Medical Journal, 1997, Vol 315, pp1126-1129. u t p Reproduced with permission from the BMJ Publishing Group e rm issio n . D o w viii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS nlo a d e d b y p.190,210 Sonnenberg FA and Beck JR, Markov models in medical decision [ F making: a practical guide, Medical Decision Making, 1993, Vol 13, issue 4, ac u pp322–338 lty p.104,105–7 Thornton JG, Lilford RJ, Johnson N, British Medical Journal, 1992, of N Vol 304, pp1099–1103. Reproduced with permission from the BMJ u Publishing Group rsin g , C h ia n g m a i U n iv e rsity 5 .6 2 .1 5 8 .1 1 7 ] a t [0 7 /1 8 /1 6 ]. C o p y rig h t © M c G ra w -H ill G lo b a l E d u c a tio n H o ld in g s, L L C . N o t to b e re d istrib u te d o r m o d ifie d in a n y w a y w ith o u t p e rm issio n .

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