analysis of aggressive driving behavior

190 Pages·2016·1.33 MB·English

by  Nima Golshani

ANALYSIS OF AGGRESSIVE DRIVING

BEHAVIOR: A DRIVING SIMULATION STUDY

By

Nima Golshani
Graduate Research Assistant
Department of Civil, Structural, and Environmental Engineering
Engineering Statistics and Econometrics Research Laboratory
University at Buffalo, The State University of New York
204B Ketter Hall, Buffalo, NY 14221, [phone], [email protected]

M.Sc. Thesis
State University of New York at Buffalo
Buffalo, New York
August 5, 2015
ii

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
I would like express my deepest and sincere gratitude to my adviser, Dr. Panagiotis
Ch. Anastasopoulos for all his advice and support during my study period at UB. This
thesis would not have been possible if without his help. I would also want to thank my
committee member Dr. Adel Sadek for his support during this work. I would also like to
thank Dr. Kevin Hulme for allowing me to use the driving simulator.
I would like to acknowledge the contribution of the 32 anonymous participants for
the driving simulation experiments and surveys. Also, I am grateful to A. Nahidi, C.
Olayinka, C. Asamoah, A. Bartlett, H. Onyame and R. Kamineni, who helped with the
moderation of the experiments and the data tabulation.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
LIST OF TABLES ............................................................................................................. vi
LIST OF FIGURES ......................................................................................................... xiii
ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................... xvii
CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................. 1
1.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 1
1.2 Background and Problem Statement .................................................................... 1
1.3 Research Objectives ............................................................................................. 2
1.4 Research Scope ..................................................................................................... 3
1.5 Summary ............................................................................................................... 4
CHAPTER 2. LITRERATURE REVIEW ................................................................... 5
2.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................... 5
2.2 Concepts and Definitions ..................................................................................... 5
2.3 Aggressive Driving Behavior Data ...................................................................... 6
2.4 Modeling Aggressive Driving Behavior .............................................................. 8
2.5 Summary ............................................................................................................. 10
CHAPTER 3. METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK ............................................. 11
3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 11
3.2 Overview of the Study Approach ....................................................................... 11
3.3 Empirical Setting ................................................................................................ 14
3.4 Configuration of the Dependent Variables ......................................................... 23
3.5 Statistical Modeling Framework ........................................................................ 31
3.5.1 Fixed Effects Bivariate Ordered Probit ....................................................... 31
3.5.2 Grouped Random Parameters Ordered Probit ............................................ 35
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3.6 Summary ............................................................................................................. 37
CHAPTER 4. DATA .................................................................................................. 39
4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 39
4.2 Data for the Case Study: Sources and Description ............................................. 39
4.3 Summary Statistics ............................................................................................. 40
CHAPTER 5. ESTIMATION RESULTS .................................................................. 52
5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 52
5.2 Modeling Results ................................................................................................ 52
5.2.1 Fixed Effects Bivariate Ordered Probit Model Estimation Results ............ 52
5.2.2 Interpretation of the Model Estimation Results of the Fixed Effects
Bivariate Ordered Probit Models ............................................................................... 92
5.2.2.1 Socio-demographics ................................................................................ 93
5.2.2.2 Driving Experience and Exposure Characteristics .................................. 98
5.2.2.3 Behavioral and Other Characteristics .................................................... 100
5.2.3 Grouped Random Parameters Bivariate Probit Model Estimation results 103
5.2.4 Interpretation of the Model Estimation Results of the Grouped Random
Parameters Bivariate Probit Models ........................................................................ 136
5.2.4.1 Socio-demographics .............................................................................. 136
5.2.4.2 Driving Experience and Exposure Characteristics ................................ 139
5.2.4.3 Driving Experience and Exposure Characteristics ................................ 141
CHAPTER 6. CONCLUSION ................................................................................. 143
6.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 143
6.2 Summary and Lessons Learned ........................................................................ 144
6.3 Contribution of this Research ........................................................................... 159
6.4 Limitations ........................................................................................................ 161
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6.5 Discussion for Future Research ........................................................................ 161
REFERENCES ............................................................................................................... 163
Appendix A Surveys .............................................................................................. 171
Appendix B Motion Sickness Assessment Questionnaire (MSAQ) ...................... 174
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LIST OF TABLES
Table .............................................................................................................................. Page
Table 3.1 Weights Used for the Normalization of Aggressive Driving Behavior ............ 25
Table 4.1 Descriptive statistics of observed aggressive driving behavior ........................ 40
Table 4.2 Descriptive statistics of the Observed Variables .............................................. 50
Table 5.1 Descriptive statistics of key variables for the fixed effects bivariate ordered
probit with weighted observed aggressive driving behavior in which physical
barriers are used for categorization of the latter dependent ............................. 57
Table 5.2 Model Estimation Results for the Fixed Effects Bivariate Ordered Probit With
Weighted Observed Aggressive Driving Behavior in Which Physical Barriers
Are Used for Categorization of the Latter Dependent Variable ....................... 59
Table 5.3 Pseudo-Elasticities (Averaged Over All Observations) For the Fixed Effects
Bivariate Ordered Probit With Weighted Observed Aggressive Driving
Behavior in Which Physical Barriers Are Used For Categorization of the Latter
Dependent Variable .......................................................................................... 61
Table 5.4 Model Estimation Results for the Fixed Effects Univariate Ordered Probit With
Weighted Observed Aggressive Driving Behavior in Which Physical Barriers
Are Used For Categorization of the Latter Dependent Variable ...................... 63
Table 5.5 Descriptive Statistics Of Key Variables For The Fixed Effects Bivariate
Ordered Probit With Weighted Observed Aggressive Driving Behavior In
vii

Which Mean ± Half Of The Standard Deviation Of The Excess Over The
Norm Are Used For Categorization Of The Latter Dependent Variable ......... 66
Table 5.6 Model Estimation Results for the Fixed Effects Bivariate Ordered Probit with
Weighted Observed Aggressive Driving Behavior in Which Mean ± Half of the
Standard Deviation of the Excess over the Norm Are Used For Categorization
of the Latter Dependent Variable ..................................................................... 68
Table 5.7 Pseudo-Elasticities (Averaged Over All Observations) for the Fixed Effects
Bivariate Ordered Probit with Weighted Observed Aggressive Driving
Behavior in Which Mean ± Half of the Standard Deviation of the Excess over
the Norm Are Used for Categorization of the Latter Dependent Variable....... 70
Table 5.8 Model Estimation Results for the Fixed Effects Univariate Ordered Probit with
Weighted Observed Aggressive Driving Behavior in Which Mean ± Half of the
Standard Deviation of the Excess over the Norm Are Used For Categorization
of the Latter Dependent Variable ..................................................................... 73
Table 5.9 Descriptive Statistics of Key Variables for the Fixed Effects Bivariate Ordered
Probit With Non-Weighted Observed Aggressive Driving Behavior in Which
Physical Barriers Are Used For Categorization of the Latter Dependent
Variable ............................................................................................................ 75
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Table 5.10 Model Estimation Results for the Fixed Effects Bivariate Ordered Probit With
Non-Weighted Observed Aggressive Driving Behavior in Which Physical
Barriers Are Used For Categorization of the Latter Dependent Variable ........ 77
Table 5.11 Pseudo-Elasticities (Averaged over All Observations) for the Fixed Effects
Bivariate Ordered Probit with Non-Weighted Observed Aggressive Driving
Behavior in Which Physical Barriers are used for Categorization of the Latter
Dependent Variable .......................................................................................... 80
Table 5.12 Model Estimation Results for the Fixed Effects Univariate Ordered Probit
With Non-Weighted Observed Aggressive Driving Behavior in Which
Physical Barriers Are Used For Categorization of the Latter Dependent
Variable ............................................................................................................ 82
Table 5.13 Descriptive Statistics of Key Variables for the Fixed Effects Bivariate
Ordered Probit With Non-Weighted Observed Aggressive Driving Behavior in
Which Mean ± Half of the Standard Deviation of the Excess over the Norm
Are Used for Categorization of the Latter Dependent Variable ....................... 85
Table 5.14 Model Estimation Results For The Fixed Effects Bivariate Ordered Probit
With Non-Weighted Observed Aggressive Driving Behavior In Which Mean ±
Half Of The Standard Deviation Of The Excess Over The Norm Are Used For
Categorization Of The Latter Dependent Variable .......................................... 86
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Table 5.15 Model Pseudo-Elasticities (Averaged Over All Observations) For The Fixed
Effects Bivariate Ordered Probit With Non-Weighted Observed Aggressive
Driving Behavior In Which Mean ± Half Of The Standard Deviation Of The
Excess Over The Norm Are Used For Categorization Of The Latter Dependent
Variable ............................................................................................................ 88
Table 5.16 Model Estimation Results For The Fixed Effects Univariate Ordered Probit
With Non-Weighted Observed Aggressive Driving Behavior In Which Mean ±
Half Of The Standard Deviation Of The Excess Over The Norm Are Used For
Categorization Of The Latter Dependent Variable .......................................... 91
Table 5.17 Descriptive Statistics of Key Variables for the Grouped Random Parameters
Bivariate Probit with Weighted Observed Aggressive Driving Behavior in
Which Median is Used for Categorization of the Latter Dependent Variable 107
Table 5.18 Model Estimation Results for the Grouped Random Parameters Bivariate
Probit with Weighted Observed Aggressive Driving Behavior in Which median
of the Excess over the Norm is Used for Categorization of the Latter
Dependent Variable ........................................................................................ 109
Table 5.19 Pseudo-Elasticities (Averaged over All Observations) for the Grouped
Random Parameters Bivariate Probit with Weighted Observed Aggressive
Driving Behavior in Which median of the Excess over the Norm is Used for
Categorization of the Latter Dependent Variable ........................................... 111
x

Table 5.20 Model Estimation Results for the Grouped Random Parameters Univariate
Probit with Weighted Observed Aggressive Driving Behavior in Which median
of the Excess over the Norm is Used for Categorization of the Latter
Dependent Variable ........................................................................................ 112
Table 5.21 Descriptive Statistics of Key Variables for the Grouped Random Parameters
Bivariate Probit with Weighted Observed Aggressive Driving Behavior in
Which physical barrier is Used for Categorization of the Latter Dependent
Variable .......................................................................................................... 116
Table 5.22 Model Estimation Results for the Grouped Random Parameters Bivariate
Probit with Weighted Observed Aggressive Driving Behavior in Which
Physical Barrier of the Excess over the Norm is Used for Categorization of the
Latter Dependent Variable ............................................................................. 117
Table 5.23 Pseudo-Elasticities (Averaged over All Observations) for the Grouped
Random Parameters Bivariate Probit with Weighted Observed Aggressive
Driving Behavior in Which Physical Barrier of the Excess over the Norm is
Used for Categorization of the Latter Dependent Variable ............................ 119
Table 5.24 Model Estimation Results for the Grouped Random Parameters Univariate
Probit with Weighted Observed Aggressive Driving Behavior in Which
Physical Barrier of the Excess over the Norm is Used for Categorization of the
Latter Dependent Variable ............................................................................. 121