An Integrated Transportation use Modeling System for Indiana, Part I : Final Report

170 Pages·1998·5 MB·English

by  Yen, Andrew Ying-Ming

Joint
Transportation
II
Research
Program
JTRP
FHW
A/IN/JHRP-96/l8-©I
FinalReport
ANINTEGRATEDTRANSPORTATION
LANDUSEMODELINGSYSTEM
FORINDIANA
Parti
AndrewYing-MingYen
Jon D.Fricker
August 1998
Indiana
Department
of Transportation
Purdue
University

8
Final Report
FHW
A/IN/JHRP-96/1
ANINTEGRATEDTRANSPORTATIONLAND USEMODELINGSYSTEM
FORINDIANA
PARTI
by
AndrewYing-MingYen
Research Associate
and
JonD. Fricker
ProfessorofCivilEngineering
PurdueUniversity
School ofCivil Engineering
JOINTTRANSPORTATIONRESEARCHPROGRAM
ProjectNo. C-36-54ZZ
FileNo. 3-3-52
Prepared in Cooperationwiththe
IndianaDepartment ofTransportationandthe
U.S. Department ofTransportation
FederalHighwayAdministration.
Thecontentsofthisreportreflecttheviewsoftheauthors, who areresponsibleforthefactsand
theaccuracyofthedatapresented herein. Thecontentsdo not necessarilyreflecttheofficial
viewsorpoliciesoftheIndianaDepartment ofTransportation ortheFederalHighway
Administration. Thisreportdoesnot constitutea standard, specification, orregulation.
PurdueUniversity
WestLafayetteIN47907-1284
August 1998
Digitized by the Internet Archive
in 2011 with funding from
LYRASIS members and Sloan Foundation; Indiana Department of Transportation
http://www.archive.org/details/integratedtranspOOyena
8 8
Ill
TECHNICALREPORTSTANDARDTITLEPAGE
1. ReportNo. 2.GovernmentAccessionNo. 3.Recipient'sCatalogNo.
FHWA/IN/JHRP-96/1
4.TitleandSubtitle 5.ReportDate
August1998
AnIntegratedTransportationLandUseModelingSystemforIndiana,
PartIandPartII 6. PerformingOrganizationCode
7.Authors) 8. PerformingOrganization ReportNo.
AndrewYing-MingYenandJonD.Flicker FHWA/IN/JHRP-96/1
9. PerformingOrganizationNameandAddress 10.WorkUnitNo.
JointTransportationResearchProgram
1284CivilEngineeringBuilding
PurdueUniversity 11. ContractorGrantNo.
WestLafayette,Indiana 47907-1284 HPR-2107
12. SponsoringAgencyNameandAddress 13. TypeofReportandPeriodCovered
IndianaDepartmentofTransportation FinalReport
StateOfficeBuilding
100NorthSenateAvenue
Indianapolis,IN46204 14. SponsoringAgencyCode
IS. SupplementaryNotes
PreparedincooperationwiththeIndianaDepartmentofHighwaysandFederalHighwayAdministration.
16. Abstract
Theprincipleobjectiveofthisresearchwastodevelopanintegratedmodeltorepresenttheinterrelationshipsbetweenlanduse
andtransportation,subjecttotherequirementsoftheISTEAof1991 andtheCAAAof1990. Theintegratedmodelincludes
twomajorparts:aland-useallocationmoduleandatraveldemandmodule. Aninterfacemodulehasalsobeenbuilttotransform
databetweenthesetwomodules. Theland-useallocationmoduleconsistsofaresidentiallocationmodel,anemployment
locationmodel,alandusepotentialmodel,andalandconsumptionmodel. Oneuniquefeatureoftheresidentialand
employmentlocationmodelsisthattheysimultaneouslyestimatepassengermovementbywork-to-home,home-to-shopand
work-to-shoptripsbetweenzonesbeforeenteringthetraveldemandmodule. ThentheTRANPLAN-basedtraveldemand
modulecarriesouttripgenerationandtripdistributionstagesforestimatinghome-basedschool,home-basedother,non-home-
based,external-internalandexternal-externaltrips. Thelandconsumptionmodel,whichissignificantlydifferentfromthe
LANCONprocedureofDRAM/EMPAL,isbasedonmicro-economictheorytosimulatetheprofit-maximizingbehaviorof
housingorlandownersovertime. Themajorpurposeofthelandconsumptionmodelistosatisfytheneedtoreachabalance
betweendemandandsupplyinthehousingmarketduringeachtimeperiod. Thelandconsumptionmodelisalsoinfluencedby
Anas'sworkinCATLAS,whichdidnotdealwithemploymentlocation,butsimultaneouslyconsidershousinglocationand
employmentlocation. Theintegratedmodelcanbeusedtoevaluatelandusepoliciesandtransportationpolicies. Testsrunfor
theLafayetteareahavedemonstratedthatthemodelcanbeusedtoquantifypositiveandnegativeeffectsoflongrange
transportationandlanduseplans.
Thefinalreporthastwoparts. PartIisthetechnicalreportthatdescribeshowtheIndianaTransportationLandUseModeling
System(ITLUMS)wasdeveloped. PartIIisaseparateuser'sguide,whichdescribestheFORTRANprogramsthatmakeup
ITLUMS,thesequenceinwhichtheprogramsmustberun,andtheformatoftheinputfilesneededbytheITLUMSprograms.
17. KeyWords 18. DistributionStatement
landuse,traveldemand,integratedmodels,landuseallocation, Norestrictions. ThisdocumentisavailabletothepublicthroughtheNational
landusepotentials TechnicalInformationService,Virginia,22161
19. SecurityClassif.(ofthisreport) 20. SecurityClassif.(ofthispage) 21.No.ofPages 22. Price
PartI- 28
Unclassified Unclassified PartII-158
FormDOTF1700.7(8-69)

51
TABLE OFCONTENTS
Page
LISTOFTABLES vi
LIST OFFIGURES viii
CHAPTER INTRODUCTION
1. 1
CHAPTER LITERATUREREVIEW
2. 5
CHAPTER3. MODEL STRUCTUREANDMETHODOLOGY 16
3 Framework 16
.
3.2 Land-UseAllocationModule 18
3.3 LandUsePotential Study 26
3.3.1 Land SuitabilityAnalysis 27
3.3.2 GIS Database 28
3.4 Land ConsumptionModel 28
3 InterfaceModule 38
.
3.6 TravelDemandModule 38
3.6.1 SimultaneousLocationand Trip-distributionProcedures 38
3.6.2 Trip Generation 40
3.6.3 TripDistribution 43
3.6.4Modal Split 43
3.6.5 TrafficAssignment 46
3.7Model Calibration 52
CHAPTER4. DATAREQUIREMENTS AND ANALYSIS 66
4.1 DataRequirement 66
1
Page
CHAPTER 5 CASE STUDY 76
5.1 TippecanoeCounty, Indiana 76
5.1.1 LandUseAllocationModule 78
5.1.2LandUsePotential Study 85
5.1.3 LandConsumptionModel 87
5.1.4 TravelDemandModel 88
5.1.5 PolicyTest 1 -Improvementsofhighwaynetworkfor201 91
5.1.6PolicyTest2 -Changesinland usepattern 93
5.1.7PolicyTest 3 - Improvementsofhighwaynetworkfor2015 94
CHAPTER6 CONCLUSIONS ANDRECOMMENDATIONS 119
6. Conclusions and Recommendations 119
6.2FutureResearch 123
6 3 Implementation 124
LIST OFREFERENCES 125
Appendix A. Land-Use Potential Study - Scoresheet System Approach 132
AppendixB. Dempster-ShaferEvidenceTheory 135
1
LISTOFTABLES
Table Page
3.1 Lotarea(squarefeet)perdwellingunit, bydistrict 60
3.2 TippecanoeCounty, Indiana: 1994 dataonauto occupancy 44
5.1 SummaryoftheLafayetteareain 1970, 1980, 1990,1993,2000 76
5.2 SummaryoftheLafayetteareabydistrictsin 1980, 1985, 1990, 1993 98
5.3 Calibratedparametersofthelanduse allocationmoduleon 1980,
1990 and 1993 data 99
5.4TheaveragerentsinTippecanoeCountytownshipsin 1990 100
5.5 Estimated coefficientsfortheexistinghousing supply submodel
intheLafayettearea 100
5.6 Year2010 populationforecastsforPolicyTest 1 101
5.7DifferencesinYear2010 populationforecastsforPolicyTest 1 101
5.8 Year2010Retail employmentforecastsforPolicyTest 1 102
5.9DifferencesinYear2010retail employmentforecastsforPolicyTest 1 102
5.10 Comparisons ofestimated averagetraveltimebased onPolicyTest 1 and
basecase 103
5.1 PeakhourVolume/CapacityratiosonoldUS 231 in 1993 and in2010
based onPolicyTest 1 103
Vll
Table Page
5.12 Year2010 PopulationforecastsPolicyTest 2 104
5.13 Year2010 Retail employment forecastsforPolicyTest2 104
5.14PeakhourVolume/Capacityratioson SR26 in 1993 andin 2010
based onPolicyTest2 105
5.15 Year2015 PopulationforecastsforPolicyTest2 105
5.16DifferencesinpopulationforecastsforPolicyTest3 106
5.17 Year2015 RetailemploymentforecastsforPolicyTest3 106
5.18DifferencesinYear2015 retail employmentforecastsforPolicyTest 3 107
5.19 Comparisonsofestimated averagetraveltimebased onPolicyTest 3 and
basecase 108
5.20PeakhourVolume/CapacityratiosonNorthwesternAvenueandUS 52
in 1993 andin2015 based onPolicyTest3 108
A.1 Land usepotential decision-makingmatrix 134
B.l Somecommon evidentialintervals 139
B.2Probabilitymeasuresforassessingland suitability(Dempster-ShaferTheory) 145
.
B.3 Calculationoflowerprobability 149
B.4 Calculationofupperprobability 149