An Experimental Study of the Prediction of Scholastic Success in Beginning Modern Foreign Language Classes at the College Level

151 Pages·08.825 MB·

by  Nielson, James Roy

Aft EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF THE PM&XC?T6e OF: SCHqLA^ 20 - SUCCESS:
IS BEGINNING MODERN FOREIGN LABStiAOE CLASSES.'
AT THE COLLEGE LEVEL , !'
by
Jamas Ray Nielson
A dissertation submitted In partial fulfillment of the
requirements for the degree of Doctor of philosophy,
in the Deportment of Romance Languages, in the
Graduate College of the State University
of Iowa
July, 1942
ProQuest Number: 10831776
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the writer is deeply grateful to Dr# Grace
Cochran and Dr* Dewey B* Stuit for suggesting the tuple
of this study * for their eons taut and valuable assistance
throughout the course of the experiment* and for their
many helpful suggestions#
Special thanks are due to Dr# Use P# Laaa
and Dr# Brleh Funks for their patience and cooperation
in making available the records of Spanish and German
students#
Grateful acknowledgment is made to !&»• Michael
Adams for his encouragement and aid#
Hi
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Chapter PRge
I THE MOSLEM AM) METHODS OF PROCEDURE * . * * ................ 1
Introductory Remarks. ,, v # t « * * 1
The Problem * * * * * * * * • * • * « • • * * * • * * * • * 2
Function of Prognosis Tests and their Limitations « • * * « 3
Sources of Data and Techniques* « ♦ » * ♦ * « • » # * * » • ®
II ANALYSIS OF MOST PROMINENT EXISTING PROGNOSIS INSTRUMENTS AND
review of prognosis studies * * * * * * * * » * « * * • * * « 8
Status of Modern Language Prognosis in 1089 * • * • * » » • 8
Early Prognosis Batteries , « . . * # * * « « • * * • * • » 10
Widely Known Tests in Resent Use# • . * • * • * * * • • • • 18
Other Studies in Prognosis Since the Committee Report • « « SO
The Most promising Prognosis Material • * • • • * • • • • • 38
III THE CONSTRUCTION OF A NEW FOREIGN LANGUAGE PROGNOSIS TEST. • ♦
IF ADMINISTRATION, EVALUATION, A W REVISION OF THE EXPERB®I^TAL
EDITION ........ . . « » * • 45
Administration of Test* « * • * • • • • • * • « • • • * • • 45
Methods of Instruetion and Measurement* • • • • • • • • • • 46
Results at the End of the First Semester* • • * • * • • • • 48
Reliability of the Experimental Edition.............. « « 64
prediction of Seeond Semester Grades* * • * • • • « • • » « 64
Revision of the Experimental Edition* • • * • • * • » • • • 66
Summary « « * . . . • • * » . • * * • * • . * . . * . . • • 59
V ADMINISTRATION AND EVALUATION OF TIE REVISED EDITION * * * • « 61
Administration of Revised Edition * » • * • • • • * • • • * 61
Results at the End of the First Semester* » * * # • • * • • 61
Practical Interpretation of the Correlations* « • • * • • * 66
Reliability Coeffieients. « * . * * * « * * . • • 74
Effect of the Revision* • • « » • * • • • • * * * » • • « • 74
Value of the Test • * • * * • • * * * • • * * * . ........ 76
Summary and Conoluslons • • • • • • « • * * • « • « * • • • 78
VI ADDITIONAL INVESTIGATIONS AND EXPERIMENTS IN THE PREDICTION OF
LANGUAGE SUCCESS* * * * * * * ........ * • • • * * ........ 81
Additional prognosis Testing Material • • « * • • « . • • • 81
Predict ive Value for Foreign Languages of the Iowa
Qualifying Examination * * * * * ..................... , 84
Predictive Value of the Number of Semesters of Previous
Foreign Language Study • • • • ♦ • • ♦ # * * . . * . , , . 89
Multiple Correlations * * * ♦ • * « * * « , , * . * * , . , 92
Investigations of Sex Differences • • • * * • * * * * , » . 93
Summary . * * * ............... ................... . , . 96
iv
Chapter
vii summary am Q o m tmmm
Summary* • • « • • * • • • * * • • • » » * « ' • • • 98
Conclusions* * • * . » • * « • » * • * . • • • . • • < . . • 104
Suggested problems far Prospective Research. • • » * • • • 106
BIBLIOGRAPHY» * ................. ................... .. • 108
AP M D U* ......................................115
Supplementary Tables # • # • * * • * * » • « « » » « • • « 116
Sample Tests 124
V
LIST OF TABLES
Table
1 Rating of Parte of Five Meet Prominent Existing Prognosis
Tests * * * .* .4 4 • * . . * > * * * * * * * • * • < * * * ♦ * w
2 Correlation Coefflotents between Total Scores on Prognosis Tost
and First Semester Language grades* February* 1941* • • • » • • 49
$ Correlations and Intercorrelationa of Ports of Altitude Test and
Grades for the french Group * * • * • * » • • • • » « * • * * * SO
4 Correlations and Intereorrelatlons of Parts of Aptitude Test and
Grades for Spanish Group* * * • * * • * * # * * * * • * * * * * 61
5 Correlations and Intereerrolations of Parts of Aptitude Test and
Grades for German Group * * « • « * * « * * * • * » • * * • • • 61
€ Measures of Efficiency of prediction Expressed in Per Cents for
Three Validity Coefficients * • * * • * * * * * * * * * # « # « 53
7 Comparison of Correlations between Final Grades and Aptitude
Test Scores for First and Second Semesters* ........ • • • • • 56
6 Part Correlations and Xntereerrolatiens between Parts of the
Aptitude Test and Second Semester Freneh Grades * • • * • « • • 56
9 part Correlations and Intereorrelatlons between Parts of the
Aptitude Test and Second Semester Spanish Grades* • • * • * * * 66
10 Part Correlations and intereerrolations between Parts of the
Aptitude Test and Second Semester German Grades * * • • • * • • 66
11 Elimination* Replacement and Revision of Items for Mew Edition * 58
12 Comparison of r*s obtained between Aptitude Test Scores and
First Semester Grades in 1941 and 1948* * • • • * • « * • » * * 62
15 Part Correlations and Intereorrelatlons between Aptitude Test
Scores* Final Exam Scores* and Final Grades— French * . * , , . 64
14 Part Correlations and Intereorrelatlons between Aptitude Test
Scores* Final Exam Scores* and Final Grades— Spanish* * * * * * 64
16 Part Correlations and Intereorrelatlons between Aptitude Test
Scores and Final Grades— German * • • • * « • • • « # • * • • • 64
16 Measures of Efficiency of prediction Expressed in Per Cents for
Three Validity Coefficients* 1941*42• • • » « • • * • • * * • • 66
17 The Relationship of Levels of Achievement Predicted by the
Aptitude Test to Actual First Semester Grades in Freneh * * * * 70
Vi
Table
18 The Relationship of Chance Predicted Grades to Actual First
Semester Grades for Freneh * * * * # * ♦ * • • ♦ • 70
19 The Relationship of Levels of Achievement Predieted by the
Aptitude Test to Aotual First Semester Grades in Spanish * • * 72
00 The Relationship of Chance Predieted Grades to Aotual First
Semester Grades for Spanish* ........ 70
01 The Relationship of Levels of Achievement predieted by the
Aptitude Test to Aotual First Semester Grades in German* • • • 7$
20 The Relationship of Chance Predicted Grades to Aotual First
Semester Grades for German ........* • • 73
28 Comparison of the Predictive Efficiency of the Aptitude Test
with Efficiency of Prediction by Chance* * * « • * . * * * » • 79
24 Correlations between. Language Usage Test Scores and Other
Variables* • • * • • • • • * • # • • * • • • * • • • • . * « « 83
03 Correlations between Aptitude Test Total Scores and First
Semester Grades for Two Groups of French, Spanish and German
Students » * • * » » * * • * • • • • * * * « • » • * • » * * * 87
06 Correlations between First Semester Language Grades and Sundry
Data • • • * • * « • • « • • » • • • • • * • * • • • • • • • • 87
27 Correlation Coefficients between Number of Semesters of Previous
Foreign Language Study and Grades in Freneh, Spanish and
German « • « • • • • • * * * • « • « • • • « • * * « • * * * * 90
23 Correlations between Aptitude Test Scores and First Semester
Grades for 1941*48 Spanish Students with Various Amounts of
devious Foreign Language Studyi Means and Standard Deviations
for Both Distributions « « • * * * « * * * * * * • * * * * * * 92
29 Comparison of S*s for (1) Grades with Three Farts of Aptitude
Test and (2) Grades with Total Aptitude Test Score, Composite
Scale Score, and Semesters of Previous Language* • * • * » • * 93
30 Sex Differences in Achievement for 1940-41 Spanish Group* * * * 93
31 Means and Standard Deviations for Parts of the Aptitude Test and
Grades for First Semester 1940-41 Distributions* • * * * * * * 116
32 Means and Standard Deviations for Parts of the Aptitude Test and
Grades for Second Semester 1940-41 Distributions » « • * • • • 116
33 Means and Standard Deviations for First Semester 1941-42
Distributions (All Students who Took Aptitude Test and
Received a Grade)* • • * . • • • • • . » • • * • • • ........ 117
vii
Table page
34 Means and Standard Deviations for First Semester 1941-42
Distributions (Students who Took Qualifying Examination,
Aptitude Test, and Received a Final Grade) • 117
33 Summary of Steps in item Analysis Showing Per Cent of Correct
Responses on Bach item of Aptitude Test for Highest and Lowest
Third of ISO Freneh Students, with Values of the Discrimina­
tive Ability and Difficulty of Each Item . • • • . • « • • • • , 116
CHAPTER I
THE PROBLEM AMD METHODS OF PROCEDURE
Introductory Remarks
Prognosis testing in the foreign languages has a history of
over thirty years, mostly in the field of secondary education* In 1929,
the American and Canadian Committees on Modern Languages published a
volume of reports on the subject** defining the status of prognosis
testing and encouraging further research* In the decade following
the appearance of this work many additional investigations were eon*
ducted* Experimental evidence was accumulated for a number of the
existing prognosis tests, and for the predictive power of certain
other measures* The bulk of these data were obtained at the secondary
school level* Prognosis at the eollege level is scarcely less ixo»
portent, however# for many colleges and universities have large numbers
of beginning language students who can be benefited by an accurate
analysis of their foreign language ability* Mow and carefully con­
ducted research at the college level should be a worthwhile confer!**
button to prognosis*
The scarcity of new teste designed for language prognosis
constitutes another outstanding gap in the field* Only one has been
published since 1930* Designed solely for Spanish, it is at present
out of print* Such is the general background from which this study
takes form*
Additional incentive for the experiment was furnished by the
Nr*
A* C* Henman et al*. Prognosis Tests la the Modern Foreign
Languages* Publications of the American and Canadian Committees on Modern
Languages, Vol, XIV* Hew Yorke The Macmillan Company, 1939, 182 pp.
need far a new language prognosis test at the State University of Iowa.
A recent study1 of the existing test, the Iowa Foreign Language Apti­
tude Teat, FA-1, published in 1925, indicated that it contained many
defective items, and was in need of extensive revision or replacement.
The Problem
Statement of the Problem*
The purpose of the present experiment was (!) to study the
existing information on foreign language prognosis in general! (8) to
analyze the materials that have been used for predieting language
success in an effort to determine which have proved most valuable! (3) to
build, in the light of such a study, a new prognosis test that might be
published In the Zewa Placement Examinations series and be used in
advising and sectioning beginning foreign language students at the col­
lege level, or in determining the proper level of instruction in un­
seat lened classesi (4) to evaluate this test in terms of its efficiency!
(6) to revise the test, eliminating items that show poor discrimination
between good and peer students $ (6) to readminister and re-evaluate the
test, as a check on its consistency and worth* and (7) to make from the
available data any supplementary investigations that might be of value
to language prognosis*
Importance of the Ezperiment.
The importance of the field of prognosis in general is so well
recognised that it needs no Just UTioet ion here# This experiment yvss
I
James F. Rumman, A Statistical Analysis of the Foreign
language Aptitude Test of the* Iowa placemeni BxamTnajTions. Unpub­
lished Master's bbesls,H^ale University of Iowa, IowaTjTty, 1959,
55 pp*