ALM Workshop Attachment 1 PowerPoint Presentation

55 Pages·2017·1.97 MB·English

Attachment 1, Page 1 of 55
2017 Asset Liability Management
Workshop
2017 Asset Liability Management Workshop
Attachment 1, Page 2 of 55
Overview
 Asset Liability Management Objectives & Review
 Review of Candidate Portfolios
 Review of Investment Decision Factors
 Review of Actuarial Decision Factors
 ALM Model Results (Cost vs. Volatility Trade-off)
 Recap & Next Steps
2017 Asset Liability Management Workshop
Attachment 1, Page 3 of 55
Today’s Objective
Conduct the Asset Liability Management (ALM) Workshop
• Evaluate potential policy portfolios that best balance the long-term investment
objectives, risk tolerances, and liquidity constraints of the Public Employees’
Retirement Fund (PERF)
• Gather feedback from the CalPERS Board and stakeholders
• Prepare for December 2017 Action item resulting in CalPERS Board Policy
Portfolio selection
2017 Asset Liability Management Workshop
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Steps to Obtain Policy Portfolio
Assets Liabilities
Step 1 Determine Asset Class Roles and Benchmarks Forecast changes in benefit payments
Step 2 Determine Capital Market Assumptions and Constraints
Indicates Step Completed
Create distinct Candidate Portfolios along efficient Indicates Step Ongoing
Step 3
frontier
Create simulated annual returns for each distinct Create simulated liabilities, contributions, and payroll
Step 4
Candidate Portfolio costs
Step 5 Illustrate key risk considerations for each Candidate Portfolio
Step 6 Conduct Workshop
Step 7 Board chooses a Candidate Portfolio based on analysis
Step 8 Implement Strategic Asset Allocation Policy Targets and Ranges
Step 9 Mid-Cycle Capital Markets Review
2017 Asset Liability Management Workshop
Attachment 1, Page 5 of 55
Candidate Portfolios
Asset Allocation of Preliminary Candidate Portfolios
Allocation Interim Policy ALMPolicy
9/30/2017 9/30/2016 2013
Candidate A Candidate B Candidate C CandidateD
Asset Class Component
Global Equity 34% 42% 50% 59% 50% 46% 47%
Private Equity 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% 12%
FixedIncome 44% 36% 28% 19% 19% 20% 19%
Real Assets 13% 13% 13% 13% - - -
Real Estate - - - - 9% 11% 11%
Infrastructure/Forestland - - - - 2% 2% 3%
Inflation Assets 0% 0% 0% 0% 8% 9% 6%
Liquidity 1% 1% 1% 1% 4% 4% 2%
ExpectedCompound Return (1-10 yrs.) 5.6% 5.8% 6.1% 6.4% 6.0% 5.9% 6.2%
Long Term ExpectedReturn (11-60 yrs.) 7.8% 8.0% 8.3% 8.5% 8.1% 8.0% 8.3%
Blended Return (1-60 yrs.) 6.50% 6.75% 7.00% 7.25% 6.85% 6.77% 7.09%
ExpectedVolatility 9.1% 10.2% 11.4% 12.8% 11.5% 11.0% 12.0%
Cash Yield: 3.1% 3.0% 2.9% 2.7% - - -
• With the 2013 Capital Market Assumptions, the ALM Policy Portfolio had an expected compound return of 7.15% for years 1 through 10,
expected compound return of 8.39% for the long term (i.e., years greater than 10), blended return of 7.56%, and expected volatility of 11.76%.
• Blended Return is the weighted expected compound rate of return of years 1 though 10 and the long term, minus 15 bps for admin fees.
• Circles correspond to Candidate Portfolios A,B, and D. Squares correspond to Current Allocation, Interim Policy, and ALM policyportfolios.
Triangle corresponds to Candidate Portfolio C which is most similar to Current Allocation. Symbols illustrated on pages 6 and7.
2017 Asset Liability Management Workshop
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Candidate Portfolios - Efficient Frontier
7.0%
Candidate D
6.5%
Candidate C
6.0% 2013 ALM Policy
Candidate B
Current Allocation
s) 5.5% Candidate A Interim Policy
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E 3.5%
3.0%
2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Expected Volatility
2017 Asset Liability Management Workshop
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Each Candidate Portfolio Represents a Range of Outcomes
15%
12%
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r
a
e 9%
Y
0
1
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( Candidate D
n
r Candidate C
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t Candidate B
Re 6% Candidate A
d 2013 ALM Policy
e
ct Current Allocation
e Interim Policy
p
x
E
3%
0%
2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%
Expected Volatility
CMA Efficient Frontier +1 Standard Deviation - 1 Standard Deviation
2017 Asset Liability Management Workshop
Attachment 1, Page 8 of 55
Scenario Analysis (Dot Com Crisis & Recovery)
Down Market A B C D Equity Only
200 1%
180
160 1%
140
e120 1%
u
al
V
o 100
oli
f
t
r
o
P 80 0%
60
Candidate Initial Funded Mar. 2000 -Oct. 2007
40 Portfolios Status Cumulative ReturnsAnnualized Returns Funded Status Δ Funded Status 0%
A 64% 85% 8.4% 66% 2%
B 66% 82% 8.2% 68% 2%
20
C 68% 80% 8.0% 69% 1%
D 70% 77% 7.8% 70% 0%
Equity Only 75% 44% 4.9% 61% -14%
0 0%
• Analysis assumes no rebalancing.
• The Funded Status calculation assumes a liability growth rate of 7.9%.
2017 Asset Liability Management Workshop
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Scenario Analysis (Global Financial Crisis & Recovery)
Down Market A B C D Equity Only
180 1%
160
1%
140
120
1%
e
u
al100
V
o
oli
tf 80
r
o
P 0%
60
Nov. 2007 -Sep. 2017
40 CandidatePortfolios Initial Funded Status
Cumulative Returns Annualized Returns Funded Status Δ Funded Status 0%
A 64% 63% 5.0% 49% -15%
B 66% 60% 4.9% 50% -16%
20
C 68% 58% 4.7% 51% -17%
D 70% 56% 4.6% 51% -19%
Equity Only 75% 53% 4.4% 54% -21%
0 0%
• Analysis assumes no rebalancing.
• The Funded Status calculation assumes a liability growth rate of 7.9%.
2017 Asset Liability Management Workshop
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Key Risk Considerations
 Accepting investment risk will be rewarded
 Historic hierarchy of risk premia will be stable
 Short-term and long-term expected return variance
 Market valuation levels
 No certainty of any market outcome