Allocating Public and Private Resources across Generations: Riding the Age Waves—Volume 2 PDF
Preview Allocating Public and Private Resources across Generations: Riding the Age Waves—Volume 2
ALLOCATINGPUBLICANDPRIVATE RESOURCESACROSSGENERATIONS International Studies in Population Volume3 TheInternationalUnionfortheScientificStudyofPopulation(IUSSP) TheIUSSPisaninternationalassociationofresearchers,teachers,policymakersandothers fromdiversedisciplinessetuptoadvancethefieldofdemographyandpromotescientific exchange.Italsoseekstofosterrelationsbetweenpersonsengagedinthestudyofdemo- graphyandpopulationtrendsinallcountriesoftheworldandtodisseminateknowledge abouttheirdeterminantsandconsequences.ThemembersoftheIUSSPscientificgroup responsibleforthisbookwerechosenfortheirscientificexpertise.Thisbookwasreviewed byagroupotherthantheauthors.WhiletheIUSSPendeavourstoassuretheaccuracyand objectivityofitsscientificwork,theconclusionsandinterpretationsinIUSSPpublications arethoseoftheauthors. International Studies in Population (ISIP) is the outcome of an agreement concluded byIUSSPandSpringerin2004.Thejointseriescoversthebroadrangeofworkcarried out by IUSSP and includes material presented at seminars organized by the IUSSP. The scientificdirectionsoftheIUSSParesetbytheIUSSPCouncilelectedbythemembership andcomposedof: JacquesVallin(France),President HaniaZlotnik(Mexico),Vice-President MaryM.Kritz(USA),SecretaryGeneralandTreasurer AlakaBasu(India) ZebaSathar(Pakistan) ∗ ∗ GraziellaCaselli (Italy) AlanSimmons (Canada) JohnCasterline(USA) JamesTrussell(USA) ∗ DavidColeman (UK) ZengYi(China) PeterMcDonald(Australia) ∗ PublicationCommittee Allocating Public and Private Resources across Generations Riding the Age Waves—Volume 2 Editedby ANNEH.GAUTHIER UniversityofCalgary, Alberta,Canada C.Y.CYRUSCHU AcademiaSinica, Taipei,Taiwan and SHRIPADTULJAPURKAR StanfordUniversity, California,U.S.A. AC.I.P.CataloguerecordforthisbookisavailablefromtheLibraryofCongress. ISBN 978-1-4020-4790-9(PB) ISBN 978-1-4020-4480-9(HB) ISBN 978-1-4020-4481-6(e-book) PublishedbySpringer, P.O.Box17,3300AADordrecht,TheNetherlands. www.springer.com Printedonacid-freepaper AllRightsReserved (cid:3)C 2007 Springer Nopartofthisworkmaybereproduced,storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmittedinanyformor byanymeans,electronic,mechanical,photocopying,microfilming,recordingorotherwise,without writtenpermissionfromthePublisher,withtheexceptionofanymaterialsuppliedspecificallyfor thepurposeofbeingenteredandexecutedonacomputersystem,forexclusiveusebythe purchaserofthework. CONTENTS Preface vii Acknowledgements ix TheAuthors xi Introduction 1 AnneH.Gauthier,C.Y.CyrusChu,andShripadTuljapurkar 1. SubstitutionandSubstitutability:TheEffectsofKinAvailability onIntergenerationalTransfersinMalawi 13 AlexanderA.Weinreb 2. KinshipNetworksandIntergenerationalTransfers 39 C.Y.CyrusChuandRuoh-RongYu 3. StabilityandChangeinPatternsofIntergenerationalTransfersinTaiwan 63 I-FenLin,NoreenGoldman,MaxineWeinstein,andYu-HsuanLin 4. DemographicEventsandtheTimingofMonetaryTransfers: SomeEvidencefromGermany 89 SumonKumarBhaumik 5. MaternalCoresidenceandContact:Evidencefrom Cross-NationalSurveys 117 JudithTreasandPhilipN.Cohen 6. SonPreference,Marriage,andIntergenerationalTransferinRuralChina 139 MarcusW.Feldman,ShripadTuljapurkar,ShuzhuoLi,XiaoyiJin, andNanLi 7. HealthandLabour-ForceParticipationoftheElderlyinTaiwan 163 CemMeteandT.PaulSchultz v vi CONTENTS 8. SocialExpendituresonChildrenandtheElderlyinOECDCountries, 1980–1995:ShiftingAllocations,ChangingNeeds 201 JanetC.Gornick 9. ConsequencesofEducationalChangefortheBurdenofChronicHealth ProblemsinthePopulation 227 MarkD.Hayward,EileenM.Crimmins,andZhenmeiZhang 10. EffectsofChangingAgeStructureandIntergenerationalTransfers onPatternsofConsumptionandSaving 243 DianeJ.Macunovich 11. SomeIntergenerationalTransferImplicationsofBirthFluctuations 279 RobertSchoenandStefanJonsson 12. OnStochasticGenerationalAccounting 291 JuhaM.AlhoandReijoVanne Index 305 PREFACE SHRIPADTULJAPURKAR C.Y.CYRUSCHU ANNEH.GAUTHIER NAOHIROOGAWA IANPOOL Beginninginthelastcenturyandcontinuingintothe21stcentury,thepopulationsofthe world’snationshavedisplayedlargeandlong-livedchangesinagestructure.Manyofthese beganwithfertilitychangeintheformofbabybooms,busts,ordeclines,andareamplified bydecliningmortalityandbymigrationwithinandbetweennations.Theseage-structural transitionshavepowerfuleffectsonhumanaffairs,fromdrivingthedemandforpublicand privategoodsandservicesforyoungandold,todeterminingtheflowofresourcesacross thedifferentagesofthehumanlifecycle.Theconsequencesofage-structuraltransitions vary in emphasis and detail, but not in significance, across the spectrum of nations in differentstagesofeconomicdevelopment.Demographywillmatterinthiscenturynotby forceofnumbers,butbythepressuresofwavesofage-structuralchange. In 1997 a committee of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Populations was charged with exploring age-structural transitions and their policy implications. The committeebroughttogetherdistinguishedscientiststoexaminethekeydemographic,so- cial,economic,andpolicyaspectsofage-structuralchangeacrossaspectrumofnations at different stages of development. Readers will find a rich discussion of their work in RidingtheAgeWaves,aseriesofthreebooks,“Population,Resources,andDevelopment,” “AllocatingPublicandPrivateResourcesacrossGenerations,”and“ResponsestoAgeing in Advanced Industrial States.” Volume 1 of the series contains discussions focused on developingcountriesandchallengesfrombuildinghumancapabilitiesandcreatingjobsto creatingindustry,infrastructure,andinstitutions.Volume3oftheseriescontainsdiscus- sionsfocusedonthehighlyindustrializedcountriesandpolicyproblemsrelatedtoageing andlongrunsub-replacementfertility. The subject of this volume (volume 2) is intergenerational transfers, by which we mean transfersofallkinds(money,goods,services,time,culture,taxesandbenefits,information, socialcapital)acrossgenerations.Someofthediscussionalsoconcernsintragenerational transfersthatareoftennaturallyintertwinedwithtransfersacrosstheagespectrum. Whyareintergenerationaltransfersimportantinanageofchangingdemographicstruc- tures?Intergenerationaltransfersareakeydeterminantofthewell-beingofindividualsand vii viii PREFACE families,andofaggregatehuman,social,andfinancialcapital.Intergenerationaltransfers oftime,money,goods,andattitudesfromparentstoyoungchildrencontributetochildren’s educationalachievementandlateremploymenttrajectories,andtointergenerationalclass mobility.Similarly,intergenerationaltransfersfromgrown-upchildrentoelderlyparents havebeenshowntocontributetoparents’well-being.Atamacrolevel,thedirectionand magnitude of intergenerational transfers has been proposed as a key factor determining fertilitytransitionsandlevels.Inthereversedirection,patternsofintergenerationaltrans- ferarestronglyaffectedbyshiftsinagestructure,kinshipstructure,andsocialnetworks. Themacroeconomicsofpopulationsundergoingfertilityandmortalitytransitionscanbe usefullyanalysedintermsofintergenerationalflowstoilluminatequestionsrangingfrom savingsratestotheneedforpublicsupporttodifferentagesegmentsofthepopulation. In many industrialized countries, population age structures today reflect large fertility declinesthatoccurredagenerationorsoago,withresultingbabyboomsthathaveaged andaremovingthroughthelabourforce.Fertilitydeclineshavehadandcontinuetohave significant social and economic effects, e.g., on the growth of individual savings and thus aggregate capital investment, on family sizes and the shift from traditional family structures toward nuclear families, and on the thinning of traditional kinship networks. Mortalitydeclineshaveresultedinrapidgrowthoftheelderlypopulationandanincrease in old-age dependency ratios in both population, and families. Thus, the joint effects of intergenerational transfers and age-structural transitions will have short- and long-run effectsonpolicywithrespecttoeducation,socialservices,welfare,old-agesupport,and onmacroeconomicandfiscalpolicy. Several features distinguish these books from past writing on the subject. First, a joint examination of dimensions of age-structural change that have often been considered in isolation from each other (for example, in multidimensional measurement of transfers, andincross-nationalcomparisons);second,thepapersherebringtogetherthemanypol- icy implications of these dimensions; third, the use of case studies to examine policy consequencesandoptionsofparticulardimensionsofchange;fourth,thedevelopmentof qualitativeandformalmethodstoanalysethelong-termdynamicnatureandconsequences ofage-structuralchange. Thecommittee(ShripadTuljapurkar,C.Y.CyrusChu,AnneH.Gauthier,NaohiroOgawa, RafaelRofman,IanPool,HassanYoussif)thanksthemanypeopleandagencieswhomade thisworkpossible.InadditiontotheIUSSP,wethanktheAsianMetacentreattheSingapore NationalUniversity,theAcademiaSinicainTaipei,andtheNihonUniversityPopulation ResearchInstituteinTokyo.TheeditorsoftheindividualvolumeswereC.Y.CyrusChu, AnneH.Gauthier,NaohiroOgawa,IanPool,VipanPrachuabmoh,andShripadTuljapurkar. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ThisbookistheresultofanIUSSP(InternationalUnionfortheScientificStudyofPopula- tion)seminaronAgeStructureTransitionsandPolicyDynamics:TheAllocationofPublic and Private Resources across Generations held in Taipei, Taiwan December 6–8, 2001. TheseminarwasorganizedbytheIUSSPCommitteeonAgeStructureandPublicPolicy (ShripadTuljapurkar,Chair,C.Y.CyrusChu,AnneH.Gauthier,NaohiroOgawa,IanPool, Rafael Rofman, Hassan Yousif) and the Institute of Economics of Academia Sinica. An editorialcommitteereviewedaselectedsubsetofthemanyexcellentpaperspresentedat themeeting.Followingtheusualpracticesinthisandthepreviousseriestherevisedsetof chapterswassubjecttoindependentscrutinythroughtheIUSSP.Theeditorsandexternal reviewersrequestedrevisionsandthefinalrevisedpapersareincludedinthisvolume. ix
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