Agent-Based Modeling and Simulation

328 Pages·2014·5.934 MB·English

by  Simon J. E. Taylor (eds.)

Agent-based Modeling and Simulation
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Agent-based Modeling and
Simulation
Editedby
Simon JE Taylor
BrunelUniversity,UK
Selection,introduction,andeditorialmatter©SimonJETaylor2014
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Contents
ListofFiguresandTables viii
1 Introducingagent-basedmodelingandsimulation 1
SimonJE Taylor
2 Tutorialonagent-basedmodelingandsimulation 11
CMMacalandMJNorth
3 Someinsightsintotheemergenceofagent-basedmodeling 32
BLHeathandRRHill
4 Anapplicationofagent-basedsimulationtothemanagementof
hospital-acquiredinfection 45
YMeng,RDavies,KHardyandPHawkey
5 Anagent-basedsimulationapproachforthenewproductdiffusion
ofanovelbiomassfuel 61
MGünther,CStummer,LMWakolbingerandMWildpaner
6 Agent-basedmodelingandsimulationofurbanevacuation:relative
effectivenessofsimultaneousandstagedevacuationstrategies 78
XChenandFB Zhan
7 Towardsthedevelopmentofasimulatorforinvestigatingthe
impactofpeoplemanagementpracticesonretailperformance 97
POSiebers,UAickelin,HCeliaandCWClegg
8 Amulti-agentsimulationofthepharmaceuticalsupplychain 133
GJetly,CLRossettiandRHandfield
9 Workflowschedulingusingmulti-agentsystemsinadynamically
changingenvironment 155
MMerdan,TMoser,WSunindyo,SBifflandPVrba
10 Creditrisk:anagent-basedmodelofpost-creditdecisionactions
andcreditlossesinbanks 185
SJonsson
11 Thedevelopmentofnewinfantrytacticsduringtheearly
eighteenthcentury:acomputersimulationapproachtomodern
militaryhistory 208
XRubio-Campillo,JMCelaandFXHCardona
12 Agenerictestingframeworkforagent-basedsimulationmodels 231
ÖGürcan,ODikenelliandCBernon
v
vi Contents
13 Successfulapproachesforteachingagent-basedsimulation 271
CMMacalandMJNorth
14 Discrete-eventsimulationisaliveandkicking! 291
SBrailsford
Index 307
List of Figures and Tables
Figures
2.1 Thestructureofatypicalagent-basedmodel,asinSugarscape
(EpsteinandAxtell,1996) 14
2.2 Atypicalagent 16
2.3 Topologiesforagentrelationshipsandsocialinteraction 19
2.4 ARepastSimphonyagentbehaviourflowchart 26
4.1 Structureoftheagent-basedsimulationmodel 49
4.2 Resultsfromasinglerunofthesimulationapplyingthebasecase
parameters 55
5.1 Overviewofsimulationentities 64
5.2 Timingofmasscommunication 71
5.3 Targetingexperts 71
5.4 Geographicallytargetedactivities 72
5.5 Pricingstrategies 73
6.1 Simulatedroadnetworksusedinthesimulationandthe
divisionofthefourzonesintheaffectedarea:(a)gridroad
network,(b)ringroadnetwork,(c)realroadnetwork.(Note:
ellipse—hypotheticalaffectedarea,solidlines—roadnetworks,
dashedlinesin(c)—zonedivisions) 83
6.2 Examplesoftrafficloadingpositions:(a)gridroadnetwork,(b)ring
roadnetwork 86
6.3 Fritzschecar-followingdiagram(AfterFritzsche,1994) 88
6.4 Performanceoftheevacuationstrategiesonthegridroad
network 91
6.5 Performanceoftheevacuationstrategiesontheringroad
network 92
6.6 Performanceoftheevacuationstrategiesontherealroadnetwork 93
7.1 Conceptualmodeloftheretaildepartmentsimulationmodel 107
7.2 Conceptualmodelofourcustomeragents 108
7.3 Customer(left)andstaff(topright)agentlogicimplementationin
AnyLogict 109
7.4 Diagramsforexperiment1 119
vii
viii ListofFiguresandTables
7.5 Resultsfromexperiment2—Customerleavingstatesplit 125
7.6 Resultsfromexperiment2—Customersatisfaction(considering
history,inpercentageoftotalcustomers) 126
7.7 Resultsfromexperiment2—Customersatisfaction(pervisit,in
percentageoftotalvisits) 126
8.1 Interactioninpharmaceuticalsupplychain(arrowsrepresent
bidsforthenewproduct) 139
8.2 Theproductlifecyclecurvefordifferenttypesofdrugs 140
8.3 Simplifiedschematicofsimulationflowinthemodel 142
8.4 Differentclassesandtheirinteraction 147
8.5 Productslaunchedbytop-30pharmacompanies(a)Simulation
outputforthegameswithK-Steststatisticocriticalvalue;
(b)ResultsderivedfromtheFDAOrangeBook1982–2006 149
8.6 Survivorsfromtop-30pharmacompanies(a)Simulationoutput
forthegameswithK-Steststatisticocriticalvalue;(b)Results
derivedfromCompustatdataforthelargepharmacompanies
1982–2006 150
8.7 (a)SimulationoutputforthegameswithK-Steststatisticocritical
value;(b)MedianindustryROAfromCBOreport 151
9.1 Overviewsystemarchitecture(Merdanetal,2008) 162
9.2 Reschedulingtheagendaofafailedmachine 166
9.3 ScreenshotofSAWsimulation(Merdanetal,2008) 172
9.4 Resultsofexperimentswithoutmachine/conveyorfailures 173
9.5 Resultsofexperimentswithredundantconveyorsfailingand
machinesfailingforashortperiodoftime 173
9.6 Resultsofexperimentswithredundantconveyorsfailingand
machinesfailingforalongperiodoftime 174
9.7 Resultsofexperimentswithnon-redundantconveyorsfailing
andmachinesfailingforashortperiodoftime 175
9.8 Resultsofexperimentswithnon-redundantconveyorsfailing
andmachinesfailingforalongperiodoftime 176
9.9 ComparisonofCR-T 176
10.1 TheformalstructureoftheBankModel 188
10.2 Responsestoquestionsaboutinformationsourcesusedintheir
last credit-grantingdecision 191
10.3 Responsestoquestionsaboutthemostusefulinformation
sourcesusedintheirlastcredit-grantingdecision 191
ListofFiguresandTables ix
10.4 DistributionofinitialPDvalues 195
10.5 Expectedcreditloss(percentage)whenthebankershavethe
optiontoterminatethecontractwithallfirmsinwhichthePPD
exceedsthePPDlimit of0.10(Option3) 199
10.6 Expectedcreditloss(percentage)whenthebankershavethe
optiontohalveexposuretofirmsinwhichthePPDexceedsthe
PPDlimit of0.10(Option2) 200
10.7 Expectedcreditloss(percentage)whenthebankertakeno
actionsoffirmsinwhichthePPDexceedsthePPDlimitof
0.10(Option1) 200
10.8 Simulationresultsfromallthreepost-creditdecisionaction
options;meanofexpectedcreditlossesasapercentageofthe
totalborrowingatdifferentlimitsforPPDlimits 201
10.9 Creditlosses(percentage)oftheBankandotherbanksinthe
Swedishmarket(1998–2010) 203
11.1 SingleFiresystem.Thefigureportraysthedeploymentofa
theoreticalbattalioninthreeranks,andthearrowpointstowards
theenemy.Thenumberontherightistheorderoffire(inthis
case,everysoldierfiresatthesametime) 210
11.2 FirebyRanks,followingthelegendofFigure11.1Thenumber
istheorderoffire,andinthiscasethelastrankfiresfirst,followed
bythemiddlerankandthentherankclosesttotheenemy 211
11.3 PlatoonFire.Asstatedbefore,thenumbershowstheorderof
execution.Theranksaredividedintofourgroups,depictedinthe
figurebydifferentpatterns.Intheory,allthesoldiersinagroup
shouldfireatthesametime.Aswecansee,mostsoldiersinthe
firstrankareleftinreserveaspartofthefourthgroup 211
11.4 ThisdiagramportraystheCatalansystem,asdefinedinFerrer’s
drillingmanual.Theranksaredividedinto16sections,paired
fromtheflanksoftheformationtothecentre 212
11.5 ResultofexecutingtheABMfor200timesteps(100s).Afterthree
volleys,thenorthernbattlelinebeginstopanic,breakingthe
formationinthezonethatreceivedmaximumstress(inthiscase
thecentre).Theagent’scolourshowsitslevelofstress(thelower
valuesarewhite;thehigheronesred) 219
11.6 Formationefficiencyinrelationtosoldierperformance.The
entiresetofresultsisportrayedusingthreeaxes:theXaxis
definestheaccuracyoftheRedside(1–25%);theZaxisdefines
thecohesionrating(10–100%)andtheYaxisthenumberof
victoriesoftheRedsideovertheBlueside 222