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221 Pages·2014·8.74 MB·English

2014 African Transformation Report
Growth
with Depth
2014 African Transformation Report Growth with Depth ACET
2014 African Transformation Report
Growth
with Depth
The African Center for Economic Transformation is an economic policy institute supporting Africa’s long-term
growth through transformation. Our vision is that by 2025 all African countries will drive their own growth and trans-
formation agendas, led by the private sector and supported by capable states with good policies and strong insti-
tutions. We work toward that vision through our analysis, advice, and advocacy. Please visit www.acetforafrica.org.
African Center for Economic Transformation
Ghana United States
Ofce Location Mailing Address 1776 K Street, NW
50 Liberation Road Cantonments Suite 200
Ridge Residential Area PMB CT 4 Washington, DC
Accra, Ghana Accra, Ghana 20006
Phone: [phone] Phone: [phone]
For general inquiries, including press, contact
iii
Foreword
Last year the UN Secretary-General’s High-Level growth and development and identifes best practic-
Panel on the Post-2015 Development Agenda, which I es from Africa and beyond. It will be of great value to
co-chair, released its report setting a clear roadmap for African policymakers as they draw up action plans to
eradicating extreme poverty. We recommended that transform their economies and ensure that growth is
the post-2015 goals be driven by fve big transforma- sustained to improve the lives of an increasing number
tive shifts. One of these shifts is a profound economic of Africans, consistent with the AU’s transformation
transformation to improve livelihoods by harnessing vision. And by setting a transformation agenda, it will
innovation, technology, and the potential of business- contribute to international discussions on the strategies
es. We concluded that more diversifed economies, with and priorities for achieving many of Africa’s post-2015
equal opportunities for all, would drive social inclusion, development goals.
especially for young people, and foster sustainable con-
sumption and production. Five years ago, I welcomed ACET’s establishment in the
expectation that it would give new meaning to African
Nowhere is the need for such a transformative shift ownership of Africa’s destiny. With this report, ACET has
greater than in Africa. Recognizing this imperative, earned that recognition.
the African heads of state and government recently
endorsed the African Union’s transformation vision
for 2063. The key dimensions of that vision are to
address the structural transformation of Africa’s output
and trade, strengthen Africa’s infrastructure and
human resources, and modernize Africa’s science and
technology. Ellen Johnson Sirleaf
President
I commend the African Center for Economic Trans- Republic of Liberia
formation (ACET) for preparing this welcome report. Co-chair
It looks at transformation as a broad framework for UN High Level Panel on the Post-2015 Development Agenda
African Transformation Report 2014 | Foreword
iv
Preface
By 2050 Sub-Saharan Africa will have a larger and part greatly enriched the discourse and resoundingly
younger workforce than China or India. With the con- endorsed our work, including our plans to produce this
tinent’s abundant land and natural resources, that report.
workforce can be a global competitive advantage and a
great asset in driving economic transformation. Economic transformation is now the consensus par-
adigm for Africa’s development. The UN’s High Level
Such a transformation will come through diversifying Panel on the global development agenda after 2015
African economies, boosting their competitiveness in sets out the priorities for transforming African’s econo-
world markets, increasing their shares of manufactur- mies for jobs and inclusive growth. The African Union’s
ing in GDP, and using more sophisticated technology Vision 2063 calls for integrating the continent’s econo-
in production. Economies will then become much more mies so that they partake more in the global economy
prosperous, less dependent on foreign assistance, and and in regional opportunities. The African Develop-
much more resilient to shocks—mirroring the success- ment Bank’s long-term strategy, At the Center of Africa’s
es of Asian and Latin American countries over the past Transformation, has the goal of establishing Africa as the
several decades. next global emerging market. And the Economic Com-
mission for Africa’s 2013 economic report, Making the
The impressive economic growth of many African coun- most of Africa’s commodities: Industrializing for growth,
tries since the mid-1990s—as well as the progress in gov- jobs, and economic transformation, details what’s
ernance and the turnaround in investor c onfdence— needed to promote competitiveness, reduce depen-
provides a solid foundation for transforming African dence on primary commodity exports, and emerge as
economies for better jobs and shared prosperity. a new global growth pole.
This frst African Transformation Report draws on our Our report’s main premise is that African economies
three-year research program of country, sector, and need more than growth—if they are to transform,
thematic studies to ofer analyses and lessons that can they need growth with DEPTH. That is, they need to
be tailored to each country’s endowments, constraints, Diversify their production, make their Exports com-
and opportunities. In 2010, working with local think petitive, increase the Productivity of farms, frms, and
tanks, we began to assess the transformation records, government ofces, and upgrade the Technology they
platforms, and prospects of 15 Sub-Saharan countries. use throughout the economy—all to improve Human
Brief summaries of those studies appear in the country well-being.
transformation profiles in an annex to the report.
Working with African and international economists, A key feature of the report is ACET’s new African Trans-
our staf also produced cross-cutting studies of themes formation Index, which assesses the performance
important to Africa’s transformation. And working with of countries on the fve depth attributes of transfor-
African consultants, we produced studies of sectors mation and aggregates them in an overall index. It
holding promise for adding value to Africa’s agricultural shows policymakers, business people, the media, and
and manufactured products. the public how their economies are transforming and
where they stand in relation to their peers. It can thus
In 2011 we invited 30 leading thinkers on African devel- be a starting point for national dialogues on key areas
opment to come to Rockefeller’s conference center in for launching transformation drives. We plan to refne
Bellagio and to provide their perspectives on the chal- the index in coming years and to expand its coverage
lenges of economic transformation. Attending were beyond the 21 countries assessed here.
African ministers and business leaders, academics from
prominent think tanks, senior ofcials from multilateral The report recognizes that transformation doesn’t
development banks, and development specialists from happen overnight but is a long-term process. It requires
Asia and Latin America. The workshop drew lessons constructive relationships between the state and the
from outside Africa to help us make our approach more private sector. True, private frms will lead in producing
responsive to the needs of African policymakers. It also and distributing goods and services, in upgrading tech-
explored possible networks for collaboration in pur- nologies and production processes, and in expanding
suing Africa’s transformation agenda. All those taking employment. But frms need a state that has strong
African Transformation Report 2014 | Preface
v
capabilities in setting an overall economic vision and Economist Yaw Ansu, as well as the substantive contri-
strategy, efciently providing supportive infrastructure butions by think tanks and experts in Africa and across
and services, maintaining a regulatory environment the globe, the constructive reviews of transformation
conducive to entrepreneurial activity, and making it studies and draft chapters by specialists well versed
easier to acquire new technology and enter new eco- in the feld, and the generous support of internation-
nomic activities and markets. al foundations and development organizations that
believed in our resolve to help drive the discourse on
That will require committed leadership to reach a con- Africa’s economic transformation through growth with
sensus on each country’s long-term vision and strategy depth.
and to coordinate the activities of all actors in pursuing
economic transformation. Our hope is that the analysis
and recommendations in this report will support them
in moving forward with their transformation plans, pol-
icies, and programs.
K.Y. Amoako
Producing this report was possible only through President
the dedicated eforts of ACET staf, led by our Chief African Center for Economic Transformation
African Transformation Report 2014 | Preface
vi
Contents
Foreword iii
Preface iv
Acknowledgments x
Overview Transforming African economies through growth with depth 1
Economic transformation is now the agenda 2
Growth with depth to transform African economies 2
Tracking economic transformation—the African Transformation Index 4
Propelling economic transformation in Africa 5
The state and the private sector—partners in transformation 5
Promoting exports 9
Building technical knowledge and skills 14
Regional integration for Africa’s transformation 18
Notes 22
References 22
Chapter 1 Tracking economic transformation 25
Growing rapidly again 25
Transforming slowly—growth without much depth 26
Comparing African countries on transformation 31
Propelling economic transformation in Africa 34
Notes 35
References 36
Chapter 2 The state and the private sector—partners in transformation 41
Setting and implementing a national transformation vision and strategy—the institutional framework 43
Managing the economy well and providing a business-friendly environment 46
Helping businesses master new activities, technologies, and markets 51
The entrepreneurial nation 55
Notes 57
References 58
Chapter 3 Promoting exports—essential for transformation 61
Why export? 61
The East Asian model and its relevance to Sub-S aharan Africa 62
Toward a viable export-oriented strategy 63
Promoting exports—how 68
Active export promotion under the World Trade Organization 70
Notes 72
References 73
Chapter 4 Building technical knowledge and skills 75
The challenge of quality 75
Options for addressing the skills challenge 78
Notes 86
References 87
African Transformation Report 2014 | Contents
vii
Chapter 5 Leveraging abundant labor for manufacturing 91
Garment manufacturing in the global economy 92
Sub-S aharan experiences in garments 93
Component assembly 99
Regional integration and manufacturing 104
Notes 104
References 104
Chapter 6 Kickstarting agroprocessing value chains 107
Adding value to cofee, a traditional export 109
Processing fruit, a new export 113
Processing soy, to substitute imports and supply the poultry industry 118
Notes 125
References 126
Chapter 7 Managing oil, gas, and minerals 129
Reserves and revenues 130
Governance and management 132
Designing and executing the fscal regime and getting a fair deal 132
Assessing the risks and benefts of state equity participation 136
Adding local content and linking to the rest of the economy 139
Finding opportunities in the oil and gas value chain 142
Finding opportunities in the mining value chain 142
Managing artisanal and small-scale mining 145
Notes 146
References 147
Chapter 8 Boosting tourism 151
Growth prospects 152
What makes for success? 152
Boosting tourism: East, West, and South 158
How tour operators view Africa’s potential 162
Notes 163
References 163
Annex 1 Technical note on the construction of the African Transformation Index 167
Indicators of transformation (DEPTH) 167
Overall transformation index 169
How the African Transformation Index relates to other indexes of economic performance 171
Notes 171
References 172
Annex 2 Country transformation profles 177
Botswana—Ambitions to diversify 178
Burkina Faso—Reducing the costs of being landlocked 180
Cameroon—Manufacturing expansion but income stagnation 182
Ethiopia—Rapid recovery and big transformation plans 184
Ghana—Punching below its weight 186
Kenya—A Silicon Savannah? 188
Mauritius—Steady growth but new challenges 190
Mozambique—Tapping great potential 192
African Transformation Report 2014 | Contents
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Nigeria—Is the giant waking up? 194
Rwanda—Building a knowledge economy 196
Senegal—Good manufacturing base but slow growth 198
South Africa—Linking to the rest of Africa 200
Tanzania—Steady progress but still lagging 202
Uganda—Managing oil revenues for transformation 204
Zambia—Still too dependent on copper 206
Boxes
1 Four pathways to transformation 10
2 What company executives have to say about productivity and skills in Africa 16
1.1 Comparing the ACET 15 with eight earlier transformers 27
2.1 Next-generation transformation plans 43
2.2 Rwanda—business speaks out 45
2.3 Pursuing a long-term transformation agenda in a democracy 47
2.4 Chile’s system for evaluating public investment 48
2.5 Public procurement reform in Kenya 49
2.6 Customs reform in Cameroon 50
2.7 The African Development Bank and statistical capacity strengthening 51
2.8 Leading transformation—the buck starts here 52
2.9 R&D for small enterprises—Taiwan’s Industrial Technology Research Institute 54
2.10 Toward transformational development banks—a nine-point plan 56
2.11 Export fnance in Ghana 57
3.1 Instruments East Asian countries used to promote exports 63
3.2 Indirect costs in Sub-S aharan Africa—the burden of operating in difcult business environments 64
3.3 Harmonizing U.S.-EU trade preferences for lower income Africa 67
3.4 Financing exporters’ working capital with cascading letters of credit 69
4.1 Reverse the brain drain with a brain gain 80
4.2 Developing information and communication technology skills 81
4.3 Creating regional centers of excellence in science 81
4.4 Malaysia’s three-part harmony: ofcial, private, academic 82
4.5 Samsung’s electrical engineering academies 83
4.6 Training shoemakers and managers 83
4.7 Government and business building skills in Botswana 84
4.8 Training entrepreneurs for Kenya’s informal sector 85
4.9 Putting skills at the core of Ethiopia’s growth and transformation 86
5.1 What executives say about the global value chain for garments 94
5.2 Riding African designs into niche exports 99
5.3 ACET’s FDI manufacturing matrix 101
5.4 Stars of FDI manufacturing 102
6.1 Challenges in modernizing agriculture 108
6.2 An African processor and a global giant 112
6.3 Ghana’s Blue Skies 116
6.4 China—moving from fresh apples to apple juice 117
6.5 Zambia—a midsize soybean producer and processor 120
6.6 Brazil—converting soy into poultry 123
7.1 Botswana’s political leadership and governance 133
7.2 Executive control and parliamentary oversight in Ghana’s mineral licensing 135
7.3 Auctioning Kenya’s exploration blocks 135
7.4 Angola’s petroleum activities law 136
7.5 Nigeria’s backward links and local content 140
7.6 Local content and links in Tanzania gold mining 141
7.7 Zimele: Anglo American in South Africa 142
7.8 Uganda’s new oil refnery 143
7.9 Diamonds—adding value beyond sorting in Gaborone 144
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7.10 Ethiopia’s classifcation of artisanal and small-scale mining 145
7.11 Not coping with artisanal mining in Ghana 146
8.1 Mauritius—a determined competitor 153
8.2 Cape Verde—a rising star 153
8.3 Sabyinyo Silverback Lodge pays communities and protects gorillas 156
8.4 Mount Kilimanjaro guides doing well 156
8.5 Mozambique’s land for tourism 157
Figures
1 Growth with DEPTH for transformation 3
2 How countries rank on transformation 4
1.1 Growth in GDP per capita, 1962–2011 26
1.2 How Sub-S aharan Africa fares in relation to eight earlier transformers 28
1.3 Sub-S aharan Africa’s youth population to outstrip China’s and India’s 32
1.4 How 21 African countries rank on transformation and depth 33
3.1 Trends in exports as a share of GDP and in real GDP per capita 62
3.2 Real GDP per capita and share of exports in GDP 62
3.3 Sub-S aharan exports of goods to main markets 66
3.4 Where the growing export markets are 66
3.5 Composition of China’s imports from Sub-S aharan Africa, 1995–2012 67
4.1 Secondary and tertiary enrollments still very low 76
4.2 Math and science scores below international low benchmarks 76
4.3 Few technical and vocational enrollments in secondary school 77
4.4 Few graduates from tertiary education—and few enrollments in STEM disciplines 77
5.1 Country shares in world garment exports 92
5.2 Shares of world electronic equipment exports 100
5.3 Shares of world domestic appliances exports 100
6.1 Sub-S aharan green cofee production, by variety and country, 2012/13 season 109
6.2 Processed fruit production in Sub-S aharan Africa, 2011 114
6.3 Recent soybean production and processing growth in Sub-S aharan Africa 119
6.4 Key value capture opportunities in soybean 121
6.5 The soy import-substitution opportunity by country 121
6.6 Sub-S aharan Africa’s broader oilcake and edible oils import-substitution opportunity 122
6.7 How South Africa measures up to Argentina 124
7.1 Examples of Africa’s natural resource wealth 131
7.2 Oil and gas value chain 143
7.3 Mining value chain 143
8.1 Leading tourism destinations, by arrivals, 2011 152
8.2 Senegal, Tanzania, and Zambia: growth of tourism to 2011 159
A1.1 Overall African Transformation Index without the human economic well-being subindex 170
Tables
1.1 Sub-S aharan Africa—stuck in low-technology exports 30
1.2 Some features of employment in selected Sub-S aharan countries 31
3.1 Relative wages and productivity in manufacturing, 2011 64
3.2 Sub-S aharan Africa’s top 10 merchandise trade partners, 2012 66
5.1 ACET’s FDI manufacturing matrix 102
5.2 Economic size of the ACET 15, 2012 103
7.1 Institutions for collecting resource revenue 137
8.1 Success factors for Sub-S aharan tour destinations and operations 162
8.2 Recommended actions for tour destinations 163
A1.1 African Transformation Index indicators 173
A1.2 Other transformation indicators 174
African Transformation Report 2014 | Contents