Advances in Grey Systems Research

574 Pages·2010·9.852 MB·English

by  Zhigeng Fang, Hengwu Wei, Baohua Yang, Sifeng Liu, Ye Chen (auth.), Sifeng Liu, Jeffrey Yi-Lin Forrest (eds.)

Springer Complexity
Springer Complexity is an interdisciplinary program publishing the bestresearch andacademic-level
teaching onbothfundamental andapplied aspects ofcomplexsystems-cutting acrossall traditional
disciplinesofthenaturalandlifesciences,engineering,economics,medicine,neuroscience,socialand
computerscience.
ComplexSystemsaresystemsthatcomprisemanyinteractingpartswiththeabilitytogenerateanew
qualityofmacroscopiccollective behaviorthemanifestations ofwhicharethespontaneousformation
of distinctive temporal, spatial or functional structures. Models of such systems can be successfully
mapped onto quite diverse “real-life" situations like the climate, the coherent emission oflight from
lasers,chemicalreaction-diffusionsystems,biologicalcellularnetworks,thedynamicsofstockmarkets
andoftheinternet,earthquakestatisticsandprediction,freewaytraffic,thehumanbrain,ortheformation
ofopinionsinsocialsystems,tonamejustsomeofthepopularapplications.
Althoughtheirscopeandmethodologiesoverlapsomewhat,onecandistinguishthefollowingmain
conceptsandtools:self-organization, nonlineardynamics,synergetics,turbulence,dynamicalsystems,
catastrophes,instabilities,stochasticprocesses,chaos,graphsandnetworks,cellularautomata,adaptive
systems,geneticalgorithmsandcomputationalintelligence.
ThetwomajorbookpublicationplatformsoftheSpringerComplexityprogramarethemonograph
series“Understanding ComplexSystems"focusingonthevariousapplications ofcomplexity,andthe
“Springer Series inSynergetics", which isdevoted tothequantitative theoretical and methodological
foundations.Inadditiontothebooksinthesetwocoreseries,theprogramalsoincorporatesindividual
titlesrangingfromtextbookstomajorreferenceworks.
EditorialandProgrammeAdvisoryBoard
DanBraha
NewEnglandComplexSystems,InstituteandUniversityofMassachusetts,Dartmouth
PéterÉrdi
CenterforComplexSystemsStudies,KalamazooCollege,USAandHungarianAcademyof
Sciences,Budapest,Hungary
KarlFriston
InstituteofCognitiveNeuroscience,UniversityCollegeLondon,London,UK
HermannHaken
CenterofSynergetics,UniversityofStuttgart,Stuttgart,Germany
JanuszKacprzyk
SystemResearch,PolishAcademyofSciences,Warsaw,Poland
ScottKelso
CenterforComplexSystemsandBrainSciences,FloridaAtlanticUniversity,BocaRaton,USA
JürgenKurths
PotsdamInstituteforClimateImpactResearch(PIK),Potsdam,Germany
LindaReichl
CenterforComplexQuantumSystems,UniversityofTexas,Austin,USA
PeterSchuster
TheoreticalChemistryandStructuralBiology,UniversityofVienna,Vienna,
Austria
FrankSchweitzer
SystemDesign,ETHZürich,Zürich,Switzerland
DidierSornette
EntrepreneurialRisk,ETHZürich,Zürich,Switzerland
Understanding Complex Systems
FoundingEditor:J.A.ScottKelso
Futurescientificandtechnological developments inmanyfieldswillnecessarily dependuponcoming
togripswithcomplexsystems.Suchsystemsarecomplexinboththeircomposition-typically many
differentkindsofcomponentsinteractingsimultaneouslyandnonlinearlywitheachotherandtheirenvi-
ronmentsonmultiplelevels-andintherichdiversityofbehaviorofwhichtheyarecapable.
TheSpringerSeriesinUnderstandingComplexSystemsseries(UCS)promotesnewstrategiesand
paradigmsforunderstandingandrealizingapplicationsofcomplexsystemsresearchinawidevarietyof
fieldsandendeavors.UCSisexplicitlytransdisciplinary.Ithasthreemaingoals:First,toelaboratethe
concepts,methodsandtoolsofcomplexsystemsatalllevelsofdescriptionandinallscientificfields,
especially newlyemergingareaswithinthelife,social,behavioral, economic,neuroandcognitive sci-
ences(andderivativesthereof);second,toencouragenovelapplicationsoftheseideasinvariousfields
ofengineeringandcomputationsuchasrobotics,nano-technology andinformatics;third,toprovidea
singleforumwithinwhichcommonalitiesanddifferencesintheworkingsofcomplexsystemsmaybe
discerned,henceleadingtodeeperinsightandunderstanding.
UCSwillpublishmonographs,lecturenotesandselectededitedcontributionsaimedatcommunicat-
ingnewfindingstoalargemultidisciplinaryaudience.
Sifeng Liu and Jeffrey Yi-Lin Forrest (Eds.)
Advances in Grey Systems
Research
ABC
Editors
Prof.SifengLiu
NanjingUniversityofAeronauticsandAstronautics
InstituteforGreySystemsStudies,
29ImperialStreet
Nanjing210016
P.R.China
E-mail:sfl[email protected]
Prof.JeffreyYi-LinForrest
SlipperyRockUniversity
DepartmentofMathematics
SlipperyRock
PA16057
USA
E-mail:[email protected]
ISBN978-3-642-13937-6 e-ISBN978-3-642-13938-3
DOI10.1007/978-3-642-13938-3
UnderstandingComplexSystems ISSN1860-0832
LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2010929357
(cid:2)c 2010Springer-VerlagBerlinHeidelberg
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Synopsis
This volume contains some of the highly selective, best quality research works
presented at the 2009 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and intel-
ligent Services (IEEE GSIS 2009), November 10 – 12, 2009, Nanjing, P. R. China.
Grey systems theory was initiated by Professor Deng Julong in 1982 with the pub-
lication of the first paper in the international journal Systems and Control Letters. In
the past 20+ years, this theory has been developed and matured rapidly and applied
widely in almost all areas of scientific learning. Currently, many universities from
around the globe offer courses and workshops on grey systems and information;
and hundreds of graduate students are studying and/or applying grey systems theory
in their works and their writing of dissertations. This book is appropriate as a ref-
erence for graduate students or high level undergraduate students, majoring in areas
of science, technology, agriculture, medicine, astronomy, earth science, economics,
and management. It can also be utilized by researchers and technicians in research
institutions, business entities, and government agencies.
Editorial Board
Yaoguo Dang, Zhigeng Fang, Xinping Xiao, Qishan Zhang, Kunli Wen, Dang Luo,
Shunxiang Wu, Lirong Jian, Jianjun Zhu, Naiming Xie, Richard Chen, Yingjie
Yang, Hans Kuijper, Emil Scarlat, Rih-Chang Chao, Der-Bang Wu, Baiming Yin,
Hongzhuan Chen, Kejia Chen, Benhai Guo, Zhongmin Song, Wenping Wang,
Xuerui Tan, Xiufeng Zuo, Jianling Wang, Yinao Wang, Yong Wei, Chuanmin Mi.
Professor Dr. Sifeng Liu earned a BS degree in
mathematics at Henan University, China, in 1981, an MS
degree in economics and a PhD in systems engineering at
Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan,
China, in 1986 and 1998, respectively. He has attended
Slippery Rock University of Pennsylvania and Sydney
University in Australia as a visiting professor. Professor
Liu is currently director of the Institute for Grey Systems
Studies and dean of the college of economics and
management at Nanjing University of aeronautics and
astronautics, where he is a distinguished professor,
academic leader, and a doctor tutor in management
science and systems engineering disciplines.
Dr. Liu’s main research activities are in grey systems theory and econometrics.
He has published over 200 research papers and 16 books. He has been awarded 18
provincial and national prizes for his outstanding achievements in scientific re-
search and applications, and was selected by the Personnel Ministry of China as a
distinguished professor. He was recognized in 2002 by the World Organization of
Systems and Cybernetics.
Dr. Liu is a member of teaching direct committee of management science and
engineering of the Ministry of Education, China. He is also the expert of soft sci-
ence at the Ministry of Science and Technology, China, and Development of
Management Science of the National Natural Science Foundation of China. Pro-
fessor Liu currently serves as a chair of the Technical Committee on Grey Systems
of the IEEE Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Society, is president of the Grey Sys-
tems Society of China, vice president of the Chinese Society for Optimization,
Overall Planning and Economic Mathematics, vice president of the Beijing Chapter
of the IEEE SMC, vice president of the Econometrics and Management Science
VIII Editoral Board
Society of Jiangsu Province, and vice president of the Systems Engineering Society
of Jiangsu Province. He is a member of the editorial board of over 10 professional
journals, including The Journal of Grey System (UK), Scientific Inquiry (USA),
Journal of Grey System (Taiwan), Chinese Journal of Management Science, Sys-
tems, Theory and Applications, Systems Science and Comprehensive Studies in
Agriculture, and Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,
among others.
Dr. Liu was selected as National Excellent Teacher in 1995, was awarded Expert
Enjoying Government’s Special Allowance by the State Council of China in 2000,
National Expert with Prominent Contribution in 1998, and Outstanding Managerial
Personnel of China in 2005.
Professor Jeffrey Yi-Lin Forrest earned all his edu-
cational degrees in pure mathematics. His PhD degree
was granted in 1988 by Auburn University, Alabama;
and he did one year post-doctoral research in statistics at
Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, during 1990 –
1991. Dr. Lin is currently a specially appointed professor
in economics, finance, and systems science of Nanking
University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, a specially
appointed professor in mathematics and systems science
of National University of Defense Technology, China,
and a tenured professor of mathematics at Slippery Rock
University of Pennsylvania. Dr. Lin is a founder and the
present president of the International Institute for Gen-
eral Systems Studies (IIGSS), a non-profit organization
registered in PA in mid-1990s. Since 1984, Lin has had
over 300 research papers, over 20 monographs and edited volumes published by a
large array of prestigious publishers, such as Springer, World Scientific, Kluwer
Academic (currently part of Springer), Academic Press (currently part of Springer),
Wiley, Taylor and Francis, Meteorological Press, etc. He serves or served on the
editorial boards of 11 professional journals, including Kybernetes: The Interna-
tional Journal of Systems, Cybernetics and Management Science, Journal of Sys-
tems Science and Complexity, and International Journal of General Systems. He is
currently a co- editor of the book series “Systems Evaluation, Prediction and De-
cision-Making,” published by Auerbach, an imprint of Taylor and Francis.
Some of Dr. Lin’s research was funded by the United Nations, the State of
Pennsylvania, the National Science Foundation of China, and the German National
Research Center for Information Architecture and Software Technology. Over the
years, Dr. Yi Lin’s scientific achievements have been recognized by various pro-
fessional organizations and academic publishers. In 2001, he was inducted into the
honorary fellowship of the World Organisation of Systems and Cybernetics. His
research interests are wide ranging, covering areas like mathematical and general
systems theory and applications, foundations of mathematics, data analysis, pre-
dictions, economics and finance, management science, and philosophy of science.
Preface
This book contains contributions by some of the leading researchers in the area of
grey systems theory and applications. All the papers included in this volume are
selected from the contributions physically presented at the 2009 IEEE International
Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services, November 11 – 12, 2009,
Nanjing, Jiangsu, People’s Republic of China. This event was jointly sponsored by
IEEE Systems, Man, and Cybernetics Society, Natural Science Foundation of
China, and Grey Systems Society of China. Additionally, Nanjing University of
Aeronautics and Astronautics also invested heavily in this event with its direct and
indirect financial and administrative supports.
The conference aimed at bringing together all scholars and experts in the fields
of grey systems and intelligent services from around the world to share their cutting
edge research results, exchange innovative ideas, promote mutual understanding,
and seek potential opportunities for collaboration. The conference program com-
mittee received 1054 full paper submissions from 16 countries and geographical
regions. Nine hundred sixty four papers were submitted for regular sessions and 90
papers were tunnelled directly for special topic sessions. All the submitted papers,
including those aiming at special topic sessions, were rigorously reviewed by at
least 3 reviewers. Based on the reviewers’ reports, 251 papers were accepted for
oral presentations, while 99 accepted for poster presentations. In other words, only
slightly over 33% of the submitted papers were accepted by this conference. The
rate of acceptance was lower than one third of the total submissions.
All the contributions selected for this volume are divided into 6 parts, entitled (1)
Buffer operator and theoretical basis of grey systems theory. This part includes 9
papers. (2) Grey incidence analysis and application. This part contains 8 papers. (3)
Grey cluster evaluation models. This part includes 7 papers. (4) Grey forecast
model. This part includes 10 papers. (5) Grey decision-making, which includes 7
papers. (6) Grey cybernetics and intelligent services, which contains 10 papers. All
of the 51 contributions were judged by a panel of scholars as among the best papers
of the above-mentioned conference.
At this junction we would like to express our sincere appreciation to Professor
Hans Kuijper who initially suggested such a book in grey systems theory, and our
gratitude to Dr. Thomas Ditzinger of Springer for providing us his very timely
support for this important project.
X Preface
Finally, but not the least, we would like to thank all the authors, speakers,
anonymous reviewers, and participants of the event for taking part in and contrib-
uting to the IEEE GSIS '09.
December 20, 2009 Sifeng Liu
Yi Lin
Contents
Part I: Buffer Operator and Theoretical Basis of Grey
Systems Theory
The Design of the Driving-Coupling Algorithm in
Unconventional Incidents Based on the Gerts Network ...... 3
Zhigeng Fang, Hengwu Wei, Baohua Yang, Sifeng Liu, Ye Chen
On the Priority Models of the Grey Interval Preference
Relation .................................................... 13
Zaiwu Gong, Tianxiang Yao, Jie Cao, Lianshui Li
The Nation-State a Systemic View .......................... 23
Hans Kuijper
Critical Path for a Grey Interval Project Network .......... 37
Zhongmin Song, Xizu Yan
A New Dynamic Clustering Algorithm for an Interval Grey
Number ..................................................... 47
Shunxiang Wu, Junjie Yang, Wenchang Wei, Lihua Lin,
Zhifeng Luo
Research on the New Algorithms of Simple Grey Numbers,
Complex Grey Numbers and Multiple Grey Numbers ....... 59
Naiming Xie, Sifeng Liu
Extended Grey Numbers .................................... 73
Yingjie Yang
Industrial Restructuring of Jiangsu Based on the Grey
Linear Programming Model Considering Energy-Saving ..... 87
Chaoqing Yuan, Sifeng Liu