Advances in Electric Power and Energy Systems. Load and Price Forecasting

320 Pages·2017·6.214 MB·English

by  Mohamed E. El-Hawary (ed.)

ADVANCES IN ELECTRIC
POWER AND ENERGY SYSTEMS
IEEEPress
445HoesLane
Piscataway,NJ08854
IEEEPressEditorialBoard
TariqSamad,EditorinChief
GiancarloFortino XiaoouLi RayPerez
DmitryGoldgof AndreasMolisch LindaShafer
DonHeirman SaeidNahavandi MohammadShahidehpour
EkramHossain JeffreyNanzer ZidongWang
ADVANCES IN ELECTRIC
POWER AND ENERGY
SYSTEMS
Load and Price Forecasting
Editedby
Mohamed E. El-Hawary
Copyright©2017byTheInstituteofElectricalandElectronicsEngineers,Inc.Allrightsreserved.
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10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Contents
PrefaceandAcknowledgments vii
Contributors ix
1. Introduction 1
MohamedE.El-Hawary
2. UnivariateMethodsforShort-TermLoadForecasting 17
JamesW.TaylorandPatrickE.McSharry
3. ApplicationoftheWeightedNearestNeighborMethodtoPower
SystemForecastingProblems 41
AntonioGo´mez-Expo´sito,AliciaTroncoso,Jesu´sM.Riquelme-Santos,
CatalinaGo´mez-Quiles,Jose´L.Mart´ınez-Ramos,andJose´C.Riquelme
4. ElectricityPricesasaStochasticProcess 89
YunheHou,Chen-ChingLiu,andHaroldSalazar
5. Short-TermForecastingofElectricityPricesUsingMixedModels 153
CarolinaGarc´ıa-Martos,JulioRodr´ıguez,andMar´ıaJesu´sSa´nchez
6. ElectricityPriceForecastingUsingNeuralNetworksandSimilar
Days 215
ParasMandal,AnuragK.Srivastava,TomonobuSenjyu,andMichaelNegnevitsky
7. EstimationofPost-StormRestorationTimesforElectricPower
DistributionSystems 251
RachelA.Davidson,HaibinLiu,andTatiyanaV.Apanasovich
v
vi Contents
8. ANonparametricApproachforRiverFlowForecastingBasedon
AutonomousNeuralNetworkModels 285
VitorHugoFerreiraandAlexandreP.AlvesdaSilva
Index 297
Preface and Acknowledgments
Mygoalinwritingthisbookistopresentasamplingofleading-edgeworkstreating
forecastingproblemsintheoperationofelectricpowersystemsthroughouttheworld.
Thebook’saudienceconsistsmainlyofpracticingprofessionals,regulators,plan-
ners, and consultants engaged in the electric power business. In addition, senior
undergraduateandgraduatestudentsandresearcherswillindthisbooktobeuseful
in their work. Background requirements include some mathematical notions from
algebraandcalculus.
Thecoreofthisbook(Chapters2–6)consistsoftwochaptersdealingwithpower
systemloadforecastingandthreechaptersonelectricitypriceforecasting.Chapters7
and8areuniquetreatmentsofestimationofpost-stormrestorationtimesinelectric
power distribution systems and river low forecasting based on autonomous neural
networkmodelsusinganonparametricapproach.WhileChapter1isusuallydevoted
tochartingthecourseofthebook,IpreparedChapter1toofferbackgroundmaterial
for the two main forecasting issues considered. Each chapter is a self-contained
treatmentofitssubjectmatter.
IamindebtedtoourEditor,Ms.MaryHatcher.Herpatienceandconstantencour-
agement contributed to the evolution of this book. My family is the source of the
continuingmotivationtocompletethismanuscript.
MohamedE.El-Hawary
Halifax,NovaScotia,Canada
vii
Contributors
AlexandreP.AlvesdaSilvaiswithGEGlobalResearch,BrazilTechnologyCenter,
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. He received his PhD degree in Electrical Engineering from
theUniversityofWaterloo,Canada.During1999,hewasaVisitingProfessorinthe
DepartmentofElectricalEngineering,UniversityofWashington,Seattle,WA.Hehas
authoredandco-authoredmorethan200papersonintelligentsystemsapplicationto
powersystems.ProfessorAlvesdaSilvawastheTPCChairmanoftheFirstBrazilian
Conference on Neural Networks in 1994 and of the International Conference on
Intelligent System Applications to Power Systems (ISAP) in 1999, the irst time it
washeldinBrazil.HeisanIEEEfellow.
TatiyanaV.ApanasovichisanAssociateProfessorofStatisticsatGeorgeWashing-
tonUniversity,Washington,DC.Herresearchconcernsmeasurementerrormodels,
non/semiparametricregression,andspatialstatistics.
Rachel A. Davidson is a Professor in the Department of Civil and Environmen-
tal Engineering and a core faculty member in the Disaster Research Center at the
University of Delaware. She received a PhD from Stanford University. Davidson
conductsresearchonnaturaldisasterriskmodelingandcivilinfrastructuresystems.
Her work involves developing new engineering models to better characterize the
impactoffuturenaturaldisasters,andusingthatunderstandingtosupportdecisions
tohelpreducefuturelosses.SheisafellowandpastpresidentoftheSocietyforRisk
Analysis.
Vitor Hugo Ferreira is currently with Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF),
Nitero´i,Brazil.HereceivedhisBScdegreeinElectricalEngineeringfromtheFederal
University of Itajuba´ in 2002, and MSc and DSc degrees in Electrical Engineering
from the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ) in 2005 and 2008,
respectively,allinBrazil.Hisresearchinterestsincludetimeseriesforecastingand
neuralnetworks.HeistheChairmanofElectricalEngineeringDepartmentatUFF.
CarolinaGarc´ıa-MartosisanAssociateProfessorattheEscuelaTecnicaSuperior
deIngenierosIndustriales(ETSII),UniversidadPolite´cnicadeMadrid(UPM),Spain.
ShereceivedherdegreeinIndustrialEngineeringandherPhDinAppliedStatistics
fromtheUniversidadPolite´cnicadeMadridinJuly2005andJune2010,respectively.
ix
x Contributors
She has received several awards for her PhD thesis: Extraordinary Prize from the
UPM, the Loyola de Palacio Best PhD Prize on EU Energy Policy given by the
European University Institute (EUI), Florence School of Regulation and Loyola de
Palacio Chair (Third Prize Winner), the “ELECNOR” PhD Thesis Award and the
PhDThesisSpecialMentionbytheProfessionalAssociationofIndustrialEngineers
ofMadrid(Spain).ShehaspublishedherworksinTechnometrics,IEEETransactions
on Power Systems, Applied Energy, Energy Economics, and Wiley Encyclopedia of
ElectricalandElectronicsEngineering,amongothers.
AntonioGo´mez-Expo´sitoreceivedanIndustrialEngineeringdegree,majorinelec-
trical engineering, and a Doctor of Engineering degree in Power Engineering from
theUniversityofSeville,Spain,in1982and1985,respectively.Heiscurrentlythe
Endesa Red Industrial Chair Professor with the University of Seville. His research
interests include optimal power system operation, state estimation, digital signal
processing,andcontroloflexibleactransmissionsystemdevices.
Catalina Go´mez-Quiles received an engineering degree from the University of
Seville,Spain,andanMScdegreefromMcGillUniversity,Montreal,Canada,both
in Electrical Engineering. In 2012, she got a PhD degree from the University of
Seville.Herresearchinterestsrelatetomathematicalandcomputermodelsforpower
systemanalysis.
Yunhe Hou received his BE and PhD degrees in Electrical Engineering from the
HuazhongUniversityofScienceandTechnology,Wuhan,China,in1999and2005,
respectively.Hewasapost-doctoralresearchfellowatTsinghuaUniversity,Beijing,
China, and a post-doctoral researcher at Iowa State University, Ames, IA, and the
University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland. He was also a Visiting Scientist at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA. He is currently an Asso-
ciateProfessorwiththeDepartmentofElectricalandElectronicEngineeringatthe
UniversityofHongKong,HongKong.
Chen-ChingLiureceivedhisPhDfromtheUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley,CA.
HeisBoeingDistinguishedProfessoratWashingtonStateUniversity,Pullman,WA,
andVisitingProfessoratUniversityCollegeDublin,Ireland.HewasaPalmerChair
ProfessoratIowaStateUniversityandaProfessorattheUniversityofWashington,
Seattle,WA.Dr.LiureceivedtheIEEEPESOutstandingPowerEngineeringEducator
Award in 2004. He was recognized with a Doctor Honoris Causa from University
PolitehnicaofBucharest,Romania.ProfessorLiuisafellowoftheIEEEandmember
oftheWashingtonStateAcademyofSciences.
Haibin Liu is with State Key Laboratory of Power Equipment and System Secu-
rityandNewTechnology,CollegeofElectricalEngineering,ChongqingUniversity,
China.
ParasMandalisanAssistantProfessorofElectricalandComputerEngineeringand
DirectorofPowerandRenewableEnergySystems(PRES)LabattheUniversityof