Adapting to an Uncertain Climate: Lessons From Practice PDF
Preview Adapting to an Uncertain Climate: Lessons From Practice
Tiago Capela Lourenço · Ana Rovisco Annemarie Groot · Carin Nilsson Hans-Martin Füssel · Leendert van Bree Roger B. Street Editors Adapting to an Uncertain Climate Lessons From Practice Adapting to an Uncertain Climate Tiago Capela Lourenço (cid:129) Ana Rovisco Annemarie Groot (cid:129) Carin Nilsson Hans-Martin Füssel (cid:129) Leendert van Bree Roger B. Street Editors Adapting to an Uncertain Climate Lessons From Practice Editors Tiago Capela Lourenço Annemarie G root Ana Rovisco Alterra – Climate Change and Adaptive Faculty of Sciences Land and Water Management CCIAM (Centre for Climate Change, Wageningen University and Research Centre Impacts, Adaptation and Modelling) Wageningen , Gelderland University of Lisbon , Lisbon , Portugal The Netherlands Carin N ilsson Hans-Martin Füssel Centre for Environmental Air and Climate Change Programme and Climate Research European Environment Agency Lund University Copenhagen K , Denmark Lund , Sweden Roger B. Street Leendert van Bree UKCIP Department of Spatial Planning Environmental Change Institute and Quality of Living University of Oxford PBL Netherlands Environmental Oxford , UK Assessment Agency The Hague , The Netherlands Chapter 3: Hans-Martin Füssel, (How Is Uncertainty Addressed in the Knowledge Base for National Adaptation Planning?) © European Environment Agency, Copenhagen 2014 All rights reserved No part of chapter 3 may be reproduced in any form or by any means electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording or by any information storage retrieval system, without a prior permission in writing. For permission, translation or reproduction rights please contact EEA ([email protected]) ISBN 978-3-319-04875-8 ISBN 978-3-319-04876-5 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-04876-5 Springer Cham Heidelberg New York Dordrecht London Library of Congress Control Number: 2014936552 © Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014 T his work is subject to copyright. 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Violations are liable to prosecution under the respective Copyright Law. T he use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specifi c statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. While the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication, neither the authors nor the editors nor the publisher can accept any legal responsibility for any errors or omissions that may be made. The publisher makes no warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein. Cover image caption: Praia de Coimbra 2011 by Hugo Costa Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com) Sponsor Contributors Supported by vii Foreword According to the most recent report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the warming of the climate system due to human activities is unequivocal. I cannot think of a better statement – may it seem contradictory – to introduce a book dealing with climate uncertainty. Doubt, uncertainty, and indeed skepticism are inherent to science. Climate action, maybe beyond any other policy process, has been driven by climate science since the very recognition of the problem of climate change some few decades ago. Paradoxically, the inherent uncertainty of climate science was used by so-called climate skeptics to disregard climate action and the whole issue of climate change. Yet the scientifi c community, including through the IPCC, has kept providing ever- increasing data, analysis, and evidence from a multidisciplinary wealth of informa- tion, demonstrating beyond reasonable doubt that the planet is warming due to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. O f course, uncertainty remains present in most of our political, economic, and social decisions, including those related to the changing climate. But whereas in other policy areas action would not usually be hindered on arguments of lack of absolute certainty in presence of highly likely facts, climate action has always been questioned, including through the use of fake arguments that wrongly mix up rigor, uncertainty, and likelihood. In the meantime, global warming continues, the increased impacts of both slow-onset events and of altered regimes of extreme weather events are a reality, and global sustainability keeps a distant goal for humankind. T he publication of this book is very welcome in this context and at this stage. It deals effectively with climate uncertainty, one of the most prominent and pro- claimed barriers to developing effective adaptation action. It is true that climate policy needs to be tackled under signifi cant uncertainty from several sources, as identifi ed in Chap. 2 . But on the other hand there are several options allowing us to start, such as no-regret, win-win, and cost-effective adaptation measures, particu- larly those useful to deal with on-going climate effects, or that will be needed in any case to help solve other problems. Further, there is a rapidly increasing knowledge ix
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