Causality in the Sciences PDF
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Causality in the Sciences This page intentionally left blank Causality in the Sciences Edited by Phyllis McKay Illari Research Fellow, University of Kent Federica Russo Research Associate, University of Kent Jon Williamson Professor of Reasoning, Inference and Scientific Method, University of Kent 1 3 GreatClarendonStreet,Oxfordox26dp OxfordUniversityPressisadepartmentoftheUniversityofOxford. ItfurtherstheUniversity’sobjectiveofexcellenceinresearch,scholarship, andeducationbypublishingworldwidein Oxford NewYork Auckland CapeTown DaresSalaam HongKong Karachi KualaLumpur Madrid Melbourne MexicoCity Nairobi NewDelhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto Withofficesin Argentina Austria Brazil Chile CzechRepublic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore SouthKorea Switzerland Thailand Turkey Ukraine Vietnam OxfordisaregisteredtrademarkofOxfordUniversityPress intheUKandincertainothercountries PublishedintheUnitedStates byOxfordUniversityPressInc.,NewYork ©OxfordUniversityPress2011 Themoralrightsoftheauthorshavebeenasserted DatabaserightOxfordUniversityPress(maker) Firstpublished2011 Allrightsreserved.Nopartofthispublicationmaybereproduced, storedinaretrievalsystem,ortransmitted,inanyformorbyanymeans, withoutthepriorpermissioninwritingofOxfordUniversityPress, orasexpresslypermittedbylaw,orundertermsagreedwiththeappropriate reprographicsrightsorganization.Enquiriesconcerningreproduction outsidethescopeoftheaboveshouldbesenttotheRightsDepartment, OxfordUniversityPress,attheaddressabove Youmustnotcirculatethisbookinanyotherbindingorcover andyoumustimposethesameconditiononanyacquirer BritishLibraryCataloguinginPublicationData Dataavailable LibraryofCongressCataloginginPublicationData LibraryofCongressControlNumber:2011922687 TypesetbySPIPublisherServices,Pondicherry,India PrintedinGreatBritain onacid-freepaperby CPIAntonyRowe,Chippenham,Wiltshire ISBN 978–0–19–957413–1 1 3 5 7 9 10 8 6 4 2 Contents ListofContributors....................................................................................... ix PartI Introduction 1 1 Whylookatcausalityinthesciences?Amanifesto................................... 3 PhyllisMcKayIllari,FedericaRusso,andJonWilliamson PartII Healthsciences 23 2 Causality,theoriesandmedicine................................................................ 25 R.PaulThompson 3 Inferringcausationinepidemiology:Mechanisms,black boxes,andcontrasts..................................................................................... 45 AlexBroadbent 4 Causalmodelling,mechanism,andprobabilityinepidemiology.......... 70 HaroldKincaid 5 TheIARCandmechanisticevidence......................................................... 91 BertLeuridanandErikWeber 6 TheRusso–Williamsonthesisandthequestionofwhether smokingcausesheartdisease................................................................... 110 DonaldGillies PartIII Psychology 127 7 Causalthinking........................................................................................... 129 DavidLagnado 8 Whenandhowdopeoplereasonaboutunobservedcauses?............... 150 BenjaminRottman,Woo-kyoungAhn,andChristianLuhmann 9 Counterfactualandgenerativeaccountsofcausalattribution............. 184 ClareR.WalshandStevenA.Sloman vi Contents 10 Theautonomyofpsychologyintheageofneuroscience..................... 202 KenAizawaandCarlGillett 11 Turingmachinesandcausalmechanismsincognitivescience.......... 224 OttoLappiandAnna-MariRusanen 12 Realcausesandidealmanipulations:Pearl’stheoryof causalinferencefromthepointofviewofpsychological researchmethods........................................................................................ 240 KeithA.Markus PartIV Socialsciences 271 13 Causalmechanismsinthesocialrealm.................................................. 273 DanielLittle 14 GettingpastHumeinthephilosophyofsocialscience........................ 296 RuthGroff 15 Causalexplanation:Recursivedecompositionsandmechanisms....... 317 MichelMouchartandFedericaRusso 16 Counterfactualsandcausalstructure...................................................... 338 KevinD.Hoover 17 Theerrortermanditsinterpretationinstructural modelsineconometrics............................................................................. 361 DamienFennell 18 Acomprehensivecausalitytestbasedonthesingular spectrumanalysis....................................................................................... 379 HosseinHassani,AnatolyZhigljavsky,KerryPatterson,andAbdolS.Soofi PartV Naturalsciences 405 19 Mechanismschemasandtherelationshipbetween biologicaltheories....................................................................................... 407 TudorM.Baetu 20 Chancesandcausesinevolutionarybiology:Howmanychances becomeonechance.................................................................................... 425 RobertaL.Millstein 21 Driftandthecausesofevolution.............................................................. 445 SahotraSarkar 22 Indefenseofacausalrequirementonexplanation............................... 470 GarrettPendergraft 23 Epistemologicalissuesraisedbyresearchonclimatechange.............. 493 PaoloVineis,AneireKhan,andFlavioD’Abramo Contents vii 24 Explicatingthenotionof‘causation’:Theroleofextensive quantities..................................................................................................... 502 GiovanniBoniolo,RossellaFaraldo,andAntonioSaggion 25 Causalcompletenessofprobabilitytheories–Resultsand openproblems............................................................................................ 526 MiklósRédeiandBalázsGyenis PartVI Computerscience,probability,andstatistics 541 26 CausalityWorkbench................................................................................. 543 IsabelleGuyon,ConstantinAliferis,GregoryCooper,AndréElisseeff, Jean-PhilippePellet,PeterSpirtes,andAlexanderStatnikov 27 Whenaregraphicalcausalmodelsnotgoodmodels?........................... 562 JanLemeire,KrisSteenhaut,andAbdellahTouhafi 28 WhymakingBayesiannetworksobjectivelyBayesian makessense................................................................................................ 583 DawnE.Holmes 29 Probabilisticmeasuresofcausalstrength............................................... 600 BrandenFitelsonandChristopherHitchcock 30 Anewcausalpowertheory........................................................................ 628 KevinB.Korb,ErikP.Nyberg,andLucasHope 31 Multipletestingofcausalhypotheses...................................................... 653 SamanthaKleinbergandBudMishra 32 Measuringlatentcausalstructure............................................................ 673 RicardoSilva 33 Thestructuraltheoryofcausation............................................................ 697 JudeaPearl 34 Definingandidentifyingtheeffectoftreatmentonthetreated.......... 728 SaraGenelettiandA.PhilipDawid 35 Predicting‘Itwillworkforus’:(Way)beyondstatistics........................ 750 NancyCartwright PartVII Causalityandmechanisms 769 36 Theideaofmechanism............................................................................. 771 StathisPsillos 37 Singularandgeneralcausalrelations:Amechanistperspective......... 789 StuartGlennan viii Contents 38 Mechanismsarerealandlocal.................................................................. 818 PhyllisMcKayIllariandJonWilliamson 39 Mechanisticinformationandcausalcontinuity..................................... 845 JimBogenandPeterMachamer 40 Thecausal-process-modeltheoryofmechanisms................................. 865 PhilDowe 41 Mechanismsindynamicallycomplexsystems....................................... 880 MeinardKuhlmann 42 Thirdtime’sacharm:Causation,scienceand Wittgensteinianpluralism......................................................................... 907 JulianReiss Index............................................................................................................. 929 List of Contributors Ahn, Woo-kyoung Department of Psychology, Yale University, woo- [email protected] Aizawa,KenDepartmentofPhilosophy,CentenaryCollegeofLouisiana, [email protected] Aliferis, Constantin Center for Health Informatics and Bioinformatics, NewYorkUniversity,[email protected] Baetu, Tudor M. ARHU-Philosophy, University of Maryland, tbaetu@ hotmail.com Bogen, Jim HPS Department, University of Pittsburgh, rtjbog@ comcast.net Boniolo, GiovanniFOM, Firc Institute of Molecular Oncology & Dipar- timento di Medicina, Chirurgia e Odontoiatria, Università di Milano, [email protected] Broadbent,AlexDepartmentofPhilosophy,UniversityofJohannesburg, [email protected] Cartwright, Nancy Department of Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method, London School of Economics, and Department of Philosophy, UniversityofCalifornia,SanDiego,[email protected] Cooper, Gregory Department of Biomedical Informatics, University of Pittsburgh,[email protected] D’Abramo, Flavio Department of Philosophical and Epistemologi- cal Studies, University of Rome ‘La Sapienza’, and Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Imperial College London, fl[email protected] Dawid, A. Philip Centre for Mathematical Sciences, University of Cambridge,[email protected] Dowe,PhilPhilosophy,UniversityofQueensland,[email protected]
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