Cover Page: a Title Page Page: i Copyright Page Page: iv Dedication Page: vi Contents Page: viii Foreword by Rob Sharps Head of Investments & Group CIO, T. Rowe Price Page: xi PART ONE Page: xiii Return Forecasting Page: 1 1 Equilibrium and Something About Quack Remedies Sold on the Internet Page: 4 2 Valuation and Something About Kool-Aid Page: 25 3 Shorter-Term Valuation Signals and Something About Coffee and Egg Yolks Page: 44 4 Shorter-Term Macro Signals and Something About Driving a Truck Page: 61 5 Momentum and Something About Horoscopes Page: 69 6 Thoughts on Return Forecasting and Something About the Feelings of Electrons Page: 83 PART TWO Page: 89 RISK FORECASTING Page: 89 7 Risk-Based Investing and Something About Sailboats Page: 93 8 Longer-Term Risk Forecasting and Something About Dilequants Page: 111 9 Correlations and Something About a Freezer and an Oven Page: 120 10 Correlation Forecasts, Tail Risks, and Something About a Rug Page: 138 11 Fat Tails and Something About the Number of Particles in the Universe Page: 146 PART THREE Page: 173 PORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTION Page: 173 12 Asset Classes Versus Risk Factors and Something About Dr. Strange Page: 175 13 Stocks Versus Bonds and Something About Precision Weapons Page: 185 14 Single-Period Portfolio Optimization and Something About Controlled Substances Page: 196 15 Private Assets and Something About Ostriches Page: 217 16 Active Versus Passive and Something About the “Pharma Bro” Page: 232 17 Sample Portfolios and Something About Gunslingers Page: 248 Conclusion Page: 260 Afterword Page: 272 Acknowledgments Page: 276 References and Bibliography Page: 279 Index Page: 303 About the Author Page: 321
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