Assessing the future : a sensitivity analysis of highway and road improvements on growth in the San Francisco Bay Area

104 Pages·1991·2.4 MB·English

by  Association of Bay Area Governments. Center for Analysis and Information Services

services
Assessing
the Future:
A
Sensitivity
Analysis of
Highway
and Road
Improvements
on Growth the
in
San Francisco
Bay Area
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Association of Bay Area Governmerr:
P.O. Do: 2050 MetroCenter
OaK.and, CA 9460* 8th arsci OaJ- Streets
KISS 464-7900
m
5/S
BR
SAN FRANCISCO, CALIFORNIA94102
SAN FRANCISCO
PUBLIC LIBRARY
REFERENCE
BOOK
Not to be takenfrom the Library
JUN 1 199B SANFRANCISCOPUBLICLIBRARY
3 1223 04647 7452
ASSESSING THE FUTURE:
A SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS OF HIGHWAY AND ROAD IMPROVEMENTS ON
GROWTH IN THE SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA
PREPARED FOR THE METROPOLITAN TRANSPORTATION COMMISSION
WORKING PAPER 91-4
APRIL 1991
ASSOCIATION OF BAY AREA GOVERNMENTS
OAKLAND, CALIFORNIA
[phone]
PUBLICATIONS NUMBER P91006PRO
REF 388.411 As74
Assessing the future a
:
sensitivity analysis of
1991.
3 1223 04647 7452
3.F.PUBLICLI3RAR? :
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
PLANNING AND ANALYSIS DEPARTMENT
Gary Binger, Planning Director
Raymond J. Brady, Research Director
PRINCIPAL RESEARCHERS OF STUDY
Raymond J. Brady, D.Engr., Research Director
Eric Caindec, MS, Senior Regional Analyst

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Acknowledgements
i
Table of Contents
ii
List of Tables iii
Overview
I. 1
II. Introduction 1
ABAG
III. Description of the Modelling System 2
Regional Information System 2
County Level Forecasts 3
POLIS (Projective Optimization Land use
Information System) 4
SAM
(Subarea Projection Model) 5
Review and Local Review 5
IV. Sensitivity Analysis of MTC's "Build and No-Build"
Travel Time Scenarios 6
Assumptions and Initial Data Needs 6
Sensitivity Analysis 8
Did the Shifts have any Statistical Significance? 9
Detail Discussion of Relaxing Land Use
Constraints on Household Locational Decisions 10
Statistical Analysis 11
:
Detailed Discussion of the Relaxation of Land Use
Constraints on Job Location Decisions 17
V. Sensitivity of the POLIS Land Use/Transportation Model 23
VI. Defining "Build" and "No Build" Scenarios in the
Unconstrained Land Use Simulation 23
VII. Conclusion 23
Appendix A: ABAG's Modelling System 25
Appendix B: Results of the "Build" and "No Build" Scenarios with the Constrained
and Unconstrained Land Use Simulation 38
ii

LIST OF TABLES
Page
Table 1. Long Term Job Growth: Trends vs. Forecast 7
Table 2. Impact of Land Use Constraints on the Distribution
of Households in Alameda and Contra Costa Counties 10
Table 3. Number of Jobs by Corridor in POLIS Simulations
in the Year 2010 18
iii