Anticipating Cycle 24 Minimum and Its Consequences: An Update

48 Pages·2008·1.16 MB·English

National Aeronautics and NASA/TP—2008–215576
Space Administration
IS20
George C. Marshall Space Flight Center
Marshall Space Flight Center, Alabama
35812
Anticipating Cycle 24 Minimum
and Its Consequences: An Update
Robert M. Wilson and David H. Hathaway
Marshall Space Flight Center, Marshall Space Flight Center, Alabama
October 2008
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NASA/TP—2008–215576
Anticipating Cycle 24 Minimum
and Its Consequences: An Update
Robert M. Wilson and David H. Hathaway
Marshall Space Flight Center, Marshall Space Flight Center, Alabama
National Aeronautics and
Space Administration
Marshall Space Flight Center • MSFC, Alabama 35812
October 2008

Avalable from:
NASA Center for AeroSpace Informaton
7115 Standard Drve
Hanover, MD 21076 –1320
301– 621– 0390
Ths report s also avalable n electronc form at
<https://www2.st.nasa.gov>

TABLE OF COnTEnTs
1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................ 1
2. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION ....................................................................................... 3
2.1 Mnmum and Maxmum Parametrc Values and Ther Tmng Sgnatures ................. 3
2.2 Correlatve Relatonshps ............................................................................................ 14
2.3 Superposed Epoch Analyss ........................................................................................ 18
2.4 The Rato of G(H)/G Relatve to E(Rm) ...................................................................... 20
2.5 Behavor of R n the Vcnty of Sunspot Mnmum .................................................... 23
3. SUMMARY ...................................................................................................................... 28
REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................... 30

LIsT OF FIGUREs
1. Cyclc varaton of Rm, Gm, Am, SM, Lm, and Hm for cycles 12–24. Crcled
values represent tentatve values for cycle 24, whch may change for Rm, Gm,
Am, and SM, but are consdered vald for Lm and Hm ............................................ 5

2. Cyclc varaton of RM, GM, AM, LM, and HM for cycles 12–23 .......................... 6

3. Cyclc varaton of elapsed tme n months of parametrc mnmum values
relatve to E(Rm) for cycles 12–23 ............................................................................ 7

4. Cyclc varaton of elapsed tme n months of parametrc maxmum values
relatve to E(Rm) for cycles 12–23 ............................................................................ 8

5. Cyclc varaton of elapsed tme n months of parametrc maxmum values
relatve to E(RM) for cycles 12–23 ........................................................................... 10

6. Cyclc varaton of elapsed tme n months from mnmum to maxmum
parametrc value for cycles 1–23 (rse tmes) ............................................................ 12

7. Cyclc varaton of elapsed tme n months from maxmum to succeedng cycle
mnmum parametrc value for cycles 12–23 (fall tmes) ........................................... 13

8. Cyclc varaton of elapsed tme n months from mnmum to succeedng cycle
mnmum parametrc value for cycles 12–23 (mnmum-to-mnmum perods) ......... 14

9. Cyclc varaton of elapsed tme n months from maxmum to succeedng cycle
maxmum parametrc value for cycles 12–22 (maxmum-to-maxmum perod) ........ 15

10. Scatter plots of (a) Rm and (b) RM versus parametrc mnmum values .................. 17

11. Scatter plots of (a) RM versus parametrc maxmum values and (b) RM versus
ASC, PER(cycle n–1), and Rm ................................................................................ 19

12. Superposed epoch analyses for R, G, A, S, L, and H for elapsed tme (n months)
from 30 mo before to 12 mo after E(Rm) ................................................................. 21

13. Varaton of the sum of the square of the devatons for R, G, A, S, L, and H,
comparng 2007 parametrc data wth the supposed parametrc curves ................... 24

14. Cyclc varaton of the first appearance of hgh-lattude spot group
domnance relatve to E(Rm) ................................................................................... 26

v
LIsT OF FIGUREs (Continued)
15. Cyclc varaton of R n the vcnty of sunspot mnmum: (a) between the last
occurrence of R≥15 pror to E(Rm); (b) between E(Rm) and first occurrence
of R≥15; and (c) when R≤15 s n the vcnty of sunspot mnmum ......................... 27

v
LIsT OF TABLEs

1. Mnmum and maxmum values of selected solar-cycle related parameters
and ther epochs of occurrence based on 12-mo movng averages ............................. 4

2. Parametrc epochal lead/lag tmes relatve to E(Rm) ................................................. 9

3. Parametrc epochal lead/lag tmes relatve to E(RM) ................................................ 11

4. Rse and fall tmes and lengths (perods) of cycles .................................................... 16

5. Summary of statstcally mportant correlatons (cl >90 percent) ............................. 20

6. Late cycle 23 parametrc values (2004–present) ......................................................... 22

7. Occurrences of hgh-lattude spots relatve to E(Rm) ................................................ 25

v
LIsT OF ACROnYMs
deg degrees of lattude
12-mma 12-mo movng average
NOAA Natonal Oceanc and Atmospherc Admnstraton
SOON Solar Optcal Observng Network
USAF Unted States Ar Force
Y yes
v
v