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A comparative study of the accuracy of statistical and clinical methods of predicting employee success from biographical and test data PDF

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Preview A comparative study of the accuracy of statistical and clinical methods of predicting employee success from biographical and test data

A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE ACCURACY OF STATISTICAL AND CLINICAL METHODS OF PREDICTING EMPLOYEE SUCCESS FROM BIOGRAPHICAL AND TEST DATA A Thesis Presented to the Faculty of the Department of Psychology The U niversity of Southern C alifornia In P artial F ulfillm ent of the Requirements for the Degree Master of Arts in Psychology by Stuart Overton Parsons January 1950 UMI Number: EP63995 All rights reserved INFORMATION TO ALL USERS The quality of this reproduction is dependent upon the quality of the copy submitted. In the unlikely event that the author did not send a complete manuscript and there are missing pages, these will be noted. Also, if material had to be removed, a note will indicate the deletion. Dissertation Publishing UMI EP63995 Published by ProQuest LLC (2014). Copyright in the Dissertation held by the Author. Microform Edition © ProQuest LLC. All rights reserved. This work is protected against unauthorized copying under Title 17, United States Code ProQuest LLC. 789 East Eisenhower Parkway P.O. Box 1346 Ann Arbor, Ml 48106- 1346 This thesis, written by .STUART. .QIERTOH. PARSONS............................................ under the guidance of /l ± sl.. Faculty Committee, and approved by all its members, has been presented to and accepted by the Council on Graduate Study and Research in partial fulfill­ ment of the requirements for the degree of MSTER.OF.JRTS Dean January 1950 Date. Faculty Committee Chairman S. M. WESLEY TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE I. THE PROBLEM AND DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED . . 1 The p rob lem .................................................................... . 1 Statement of the problem .................................... 1 Importance of the study .................................... 2 D efin ition s of terms used ..................................... 3 A pplication blank . . . . . .......................... 3 C riterion ........................................................................ ^ Sim ilar, related , and unrelated ..................... 4 C lin ical ........................................................................ 5 W herry-Doolittle Method .......................................... 5 Successive cutting-score method ..................... 6 The standard group .................................................... 6 The prediction group . ...............................• • 7 Organization of the th esis . .......................... 7 II. REVIEW OF THE LITERATURE...................................... 8 Biographical data .................................... 8 Types and uses of biographical data . . . 8 Development of the present weighted appli­ cation blank at L o c k h e e d ....................... 10 Methods of p r e d ic tio n ................................... 12 The s ta tis tic a l versus the c lin ic a l view­ point in predicting behavior ..................... 12 Experimental studies comparing the two methods of prediction ................................ 16 i l l PTER PAG-E III* A DESCRIPTION OF THE SUBJECTS, DATA, AND CRI­ TERION USED................................................................ 21 The subjects ............................................................... 21 The data ................................................................................... 21 The criterio n . .............................................. - 25 IV. EXPERIMENTAL TECHNIQUES AND RESULTS OF THE STUDY 27 The c lin ic a lly predicted weights ........................... 27 The method used and the weights derived . 27 The correlation c o e ffic ie n t between the to ta l weights and the criterio n . . . . 33 The W herry-Doolittle method ..................................... 37 The prelim inary in vestigation ................................ 37 C orrelation c o e ffic ie n ts between the items or te sts and the criterio n ........................... 39 The in ter correlations of the remaining items 40 The M ultiple R ............................................................ Al The regression w eights ......................................... The prediction scores ...................................... . 4A C orrelation between predicted and obtained s c o r e s .............................................................. bb The successive eutting-score method . . . . ^9 E stablishing the te s t g r o u p s ............ 49 The standardization group resu lts . . . . A9 S election of the battery u s e d ............ ^9 iv CHAPTER PAGE The prediction group results ................................. 5^ Comparison of r e s u lt s ....................................... 5^ V. A COMPARISON OF THE RESULTS OF THE CLINICALLY DERIVED WEIGHTS, THE WHERRY-DOOLITTLE METHOD, THE SUCCESSIVE CUTTING-SCORE METHOD ............................ 57 The method and sta tistic s u s e d ....................... 57 Basis of comparison . . . ................................. 57 Significance of difference between means of best cases selected by each method . . 57 VI. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS .................................................... 65 Summary ..................................................................................... 65 The c lin ic a lly derived weights ............................ 65 W herry-Doolittle method .......................................... 65 Successive Cutting-score method ............................ 66 Comparison summary of a ll methods used . • 67 Significance of the difference between means 6? Conclusions 68 BIBLIOGRAPHY ?0 APPENDIX A — Tests u s e d ............................................................ 73 APPENDIX B — Raw data from application blanks . • . . 83 APPENDIX C — W herry-Doolittle Work Sheets............................... 91 LIST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE I. Frequency D istribution of A g e s ................................. 22 II. Frequency D istribution of C riterion Scores . 29 III. A Frequency D istribution of the Summed Ruch Weights of the Prediction G r o u p ..................... 34 IV. Summed Ruch Weights and C riterion Scores of the Prediction G roup............................... 35> V. C orrelations of Biographical Data Items and Tests with the C riterion 38 VI. In tercorrelation Matrix of Remaining Biographi­ ca l Data I te m s ................................................................... 42 VII. The Increase In M ultiple R as Each Item Was Added . .............................................. ^3 VIII. The Item Weights and Constant K .......................... 45 IX. Actual and Predicted C riterion Scores by the W herry-Doolittle Method 46, 4?, X. Standardization Scores by the Successive Cutting-Score Method ..................... . . . . . . 50 XI. Composition of Test B atteries by Successive Cutting-Score Method .................................................... 52 XII. P redictive E fficien cy of Standardization Bat­ teries by Successive Cutting-Score Method 53 XIII. P redictive E fficien cy of Prediction B atteries by Successive Gutting-Score Method . . . . 55 v i TABLE PACE XIV. Actual Mean C riterion Scores of the Best Cases Selected from the Prediction Croup by R.uch!s Derived W eights, The Successive Cutting-Score B atteries, and the W herry-Doolittle Method . 58 XV. C orrelation C oefficien ts Between the Best Num­ ber of Gases Selected by the Cutting-Score B atteries, Ruch's Derived Weights, and the W herry-Doolittle Method for Use in the Stand­ ard Error of the D ifference Between Means Form ulae.................................................................................. . 61 XVI. Significance of D ifferences Between Means by Guttlng-Score B atteries and Ruch's Weights . 62 XVII. Significance of D ifferences between Means by the Successive Cutting-Score B atteries and the W herry-Doolittle M ethod..................................... 63 XVIII. Significance of D ifferences between Means by the W herry-Doolittle Method and Ruch’s Weights ........................................................................................ 64 LIST OF FIGURES FIGURE PAGE 1. Lockheed A ircraft Corporation — A pplication Supplement ................................................................................... 23 2. Lockheed A ircraft Corporation — Employee Periodic Review ................................................................... 26 3 . Graphic Representation of the P redictive E ffi­ ciency of Standardization and Prediction Groups 56 4 Mean C riterion Scores of Best Selected Cases hy Each Method .................................................................................. 59 CHAPTER I* THE PROBLEM AND DEFINITIONS OF TERMS USED For centuries men have used past and present perform­ ance to predict the future behavior of their fellow men. This approach to prediction often varies w ith the observer, but has frequently been upheld because it removes nothing from the to ta l lif e situ ation . Moreover, an in fin ite num­ ber of q u a lities can be used to make up a composite judg­ ment. However, from Calton, Pearson and other sc ie n tific predecessors, the contemporary so c ia l s c ie n tis ts have in ­ herited the actu arial or s ta tis tic a l approach. Those who recommend th is method maintain that its advantages co n sist of not having to rely on personal judgments or in tu itiv e feelin g s. These supporters w ill admit, however, that the number of factors which may be used in a s ta tis tic a l predic­ tion are lim ited to a certain extent. Both of these approaches are widely used at present in the experim ental and the applied branches of a ll the so c ia l scien ces. Therefore, it is of utmost importance that we examine and experim entally study the m erits and lim ita tio n s o f each method. I. THE PROBLEM Statement of the problem. In the study to be reported herein, the objective was to: (l) compare the correlations

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