view the World Bank MENA Economic Monitor, April 2018: Economic Transformation

94 Pages·2017·4.25 MB·English

by  World Bank Group

APRIL 2018
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Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: Rabah Arezki, Lili Mottaghi, Andrea Barone, Rachel Yuting Fan,
Youssouf Kiendrebeogo, and Daniel Lederman. 2018. “Economic Transformation.” Middle East and North Africa
Economic Monitor (April), Washington, DC: World Bank. Doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-1288-0. License: Creative
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Contents
Acknowledgements iv
Abbreviations v
Summary 1
1. The Global Outlook 3
Oil Price Outlook 4
Recent Economic Developments and Outlook in MENA 5
The Rising Debt Challenge 10
A New Engine of Growth in MENA 11
References 13
2. Developing Public Private Partnership Initiatives in the Middle East and
North Africa: From Public Debt to Maximizing Finance for Development 15
Introduction 15
Context 17
Infrastructure needs and challenges 18
The political economy of implementation and management in MENA 20
The case for “MFD” finance: crowding in the private sector 21
Getting MFD right 24
Conclusion 26
References 28
3. Transformation, Not Diversification? 29
Introduction 29
The role of technological change in shaping energy markets 32
Rethinking the 2014 oil price collapse 33
Risks and opportunities associated with the oil price collapse and technological changes 34
Risks 34
Opportunities 35
The need for transformation 37
Focus on the process 37
i
Shifting landscape for “big state oil”? 40
References 42
4. Country Pages 46
List of Figures
Figure 1.1 Global Growth Outlook 4
Figure 1.2 Oil Prices and Production 4
Figure 1.3 MENA Outlook 7
Figure 1.4 Debt Burden and Fiscal Balance in MENA 11
Figure 1.5 Services Led Growth 12
Figure 2.1 Crude Oil Price, Actual and Forecast 17
Figure 2.2 From "Twin Surpluses" To "Twin Deficits" for Country Groups in MENA Region 18
Figure 2.3 Annual Infrastructure Investment Needs in the MENA Region 19
Figure 2.4 Public - Private Partnership in the Global Context 19
Figure 2.5 Breaking Down PPPs in MENA 20
Figure 3.1 Crude Oil Price, Actual and Forecast 29
Figure 3.2 Evolution of Research and Development Expenditure in Select Integrated Oil and
Service Companies 32
Figure 3.3 Clean vs Dirty Patents 33
Figure 3.4 Global Liquid Supply Cost Curve 36
Figure 3.5 Attitude toward innovation 39
Figure 3.6 Share of Resource Exports in Merchandise Exports and Share of Research and
Development Expenditure in GDP in 2015 39
Figure 3.7 Share of Resource Exports in Merchandise Exports and Patent Counts Per Capita
in 2015 40
Figure 3.8 SOE - Government Transfers Disclosure 41
List of Table
Table 1.1 MENA's Macroeconomic Outlook, 2015-20 5
ii
List of Boxes
Box 2.1 Value capture and urbanization: the case of China Development Bank 23
Box 2.2 Fiscal risks and Public Private Partnerships 25
Box 3.1 Economic Diversification 31
iii
Acknowledgements
The MENA Economic Monitor is a product of the Chief Economist’s Office of the Middle East
and North Africa Region of the World Bank.
The report was prepared by a team led by Rabah Arezki,and including, Lili Mottaghi, Andrea
Barone, Rachel Yuting Fan, Youssouf Kiendrebeogo, and Daniel Lederman.
We are grateful to Hideki Matsunaga, Omer Karasapan and Piers E. Merrick for providing
comments on the earlier version of the report, Isabelle Chaal-Dabi, Doris Chung Nathalie
Lenoble for excellent administrative support, James Lester Rowe Jr for editing the report, and
Will Kemp for the cover design.
The country notes are based on reports by the following Country Economists, led by Kevin
Carey: Sara B. Alnashar, Ibrahim Chowdhury, Hoda Youssef, Luca Bandiera, Ashwaq Maseeh,
Bledi Celiku, Khalid El Massnaoui, Amina Iraqi, Nur Nasser Eddin, Wilfried Engelke, Amir
Althibah, Christos Kostopoulos, Wissam Harake, Zeina Hasna, Kamer Karakurum-Ozdemir,
Majid Kazemi, Tehmina Khan, Sahar Hussain, Harun Onder, Thaddeus Malesa, Julie Lohi,
Emmanuel Pinto Moreira, Fulbert Tchana Tchana, Abdoulaye Sy, and Dalia Al Kadi.
iv