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8466 d e z ri o h ut A e r u s o cl s Di c bli u P Urugua'yRound d e z ri o h ut A e Textiles Trade r u s o cl s Di and the c bli u Developing Countries P d e z Eliminating ri o h ut the Multi-Fibre Arrangement A e ur in the 1990s s o cl s Di c bli u P Carl B. Hamilton editor d e z ri o h ut A e r A World Bank Publication u s o cl s Di c bli u P Textiles Trade and the Developing Countries Eliminating the Multi-Fibre Arrangement in the 1990s Carl B. Hamilton editor A project sponsored by the Swedish International Development Authority (SIDA), the Rockefeller Foundation, and the World Bank. This book resulted from a workshop on "Interna- tional Textile Trade, the Multi-Fibre Arrangement and the Uruguay Round," held in Stockholm, June 1989, organized by the Institute for International Economic Studies, University of Stockholm, and the Swedish Centre for Business and Policy Studies (SNS),S tockholm. The World Bank Washington, D.C. Copyright i 1990 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WOIRLDB ANK 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433,U .S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing February 1990 The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this book are entirely those of the authors and should not be attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated o:rganizations,o r to members of its Board of Execu- tive Directors or the countries they represent. The material in this publication is copyrighted. Requests for permission to reproduce portions of it should be sent to Director, Publications Department, at the address shown in the copyright notice above. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally give permission promptly and, when the reproduction is for noncommercial purposes, without asking a fee. Permission to photocopy portions for classroom use is not required, although notification of such use having been made will be appreciated. The complete backlist of publications from the World Bank is shown in the annual Index of Publicationsw, hich contains an alphabetical title list and indexes of subjects, authors, and countries and regions; it is of value principally to libraries and institutional purchasers. The latest edition is availablef ree ofc harge from the Publications Sales Unit, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Wash- ington, D.C. 20433,U .S.A., or from Publications, The World Bank, 66 avenue d'Iena, 75116 Paris, France. Libraryo f CongressC ataloging-in-PublicationD ata Textilest rade and the developing countries: eliminating the multi-fibre arrange- ment in the 1990s/ Carl B.H amilton, editor. p. cm.- (The Uruguay roimd) "A project sponsored by the Swedish International Development Authority, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the World Bank." Based on a workshop held in Stockholm in June 1989. 1. Textile industry-Law and legislation-Developing countries-Con- gresses. 2. Clothing trade-Law and legislation-Congresses. 3. Textile industry-Law and legislation-Congresses. 4. Uruguay Round (1987- )- Congresses. I. Hamilton, Carl. II. Sweden. Styrelsen for internationell utveckling. III. Rockefeller Foundation. IV. International Bank for Recon- struction and Development. V. Series. K3921.A55 1989 343'. 078677'091724-dc2O [342.3786770917241 89-70648 ISBN0 -8213-1380-0 CIP Contents Preface v Participants vii Acronyms and Initials ix 1. Introduction I CarlB . Hamiltona nd Will Martin Part I. Global Perspectives 2. Unraveling the Threads of the MFA 12 IreneT relaa nd John Whalley 3. Effects of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement on Developing Country Exporters: A Simple Theoretical Framework 46 Will Martin and Suphat Suphachalasai 4. Effects of the Multi-Fibre Arrangement on Developing Countries' Trade: An Empirical Investigation 63 Refik Erzan,J unichiG oto and PaulaH olmes 5. Adjusting to Textile and Clothing Quotas: A Summary of Some Commonwealth Countries' Experiences as a Pointer to the Future 103 Vincent Cable iii iv Contents Part II. Established and Emerging Exporters' Perspectives 6. China and the Multi-Fibre Arrangement 139 Kym Anderson 7. Republic of Korea: Rapid Growth in Spite of Protectionism Abroad 159 CarlB . Hamilton and ChungsooK im 8. India, The Multi-Fibre Arrangement and the Uruguay Round 182 Rajiv Kumara nd Sri Ram Khanna Part III. Alternative Approaches to Returning Textiles and Clothing to Normal GATT Trading Rules 9. How to Cut the Textile Knot: Alternative Paths to Liberalization of the MFA 215 Martin Wolf 10. Textiles in the Uruguay Round: Alternative Modalities for Integration into GATr 238 SanjoyB agchi 11. Some Considerations on the Multi-Fibre Arrangement: Past, Present and Future 263 MarceloR affaelli 12. Returning Textiles Trade to the Normal Workings of GATT: A Practical Proposal for Reform 292 GaryS ampsona nd 'WendyT akacs Preface The chapters of this volume were originally presented at a meeting at Thoresta, Stockholm, in June 1989. The purpose of the meeting was to expose national decision makers on trade policy and key negotiators at the GATT's Uruguay Round negotiations in Geneva, to facts, analyses, and conclusions of policy-oriented economnistsw orking on world trade issues. With this objective and target group in mind, it is clear why the set of authors, and the style of the papers are not quite like those of a standard academic conference. Thanks to the efforts of many individuals and organizations, the meeting turned out to be a success, although the final test of that is whether the Multi-Fibre Arrangement will in fact be abolished, of course. The meeting and this book would have been impossible without Lars Anell (Sweden's Ambassador in Geneva) and Wolfgang Siebeck, until recently the World Bank's representative in Geneva; and the sponsor- ship of the Swedish International Development Authority (SIDA), in particular its Director General, Carl Tham, and Enrique Ganuza; The Rockefeller Foundation and Catherine Gwin; and the World Bank, in particular Paul Meo and Refik Erzan. The Thoresta meeting was organized in an excellent way. The credit for that goes to Gunnar P. Eliasson,M arianne Schillera nd Eva Anderson, all at The Centre for Business and Policy Studies (SNS), and Edda Liljenroth, my secretary at the Institute for Intemational Economic Stud- ies (HES).M ichael Sohlman and Ake Weyler were also supportive. Refik Erzan and Paula Holmes of the World Bank, and Shole Blom, Edda Liljenroth and Molly Akerlund of IIES,T orgny Wadensjo of SNS, played V vi Preface essential roles in the efforts to transform the conference papers into book chapters. Finally, thanks goes to Lena Hamilton for her firm support of free trade in textiles and clothing. Carl B. Hamilton The Institute for International Economic Studies, University of Stock- holm, and the Swedish Council for Research in the Humanities and Social Sciences. Stockholm, November 20,1989 Participants Kym Anderson, Centre for International Economic Studies, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, Australia Lars Anell, Swedish Delegation, Geneva, Switzerland Sanjoy Bagchi, GATT,G eneva, Switzerland M. A. Bajwa, International Textiles and Clothing Bureau, Geneva, Switzerland Vincent Cable, Commonwealth Secretariat, London, Great Britain Gunnar Eliasson, The Swedish Centre for Business and Policy Studies, Stockholm, Sweden Refik Erzan, The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA Junichi Goto, The World Bank, Washington, DC, USA Enrique Ganuza, Swedish International Development Authority, Stockholm, Sweden Erik Hagfors, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Helsinki, Finland Carl B. Hamilton, Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm, Sweden Mahmoud Hamza, UNCTAD, Geneva, Switzerland Jaesuk Han, Ministry of Trade and Industry, Seoul, Republic of Korea Chungsoo Kim, Korea Institute for Economics and Technology, Seoul, Republic of Korea Tadatsuna Koda, Permanent Mission of Japan, Geneva, Switzerland vii viii Participants Rajiv Kumar, Bureau of Industrial Costs and Prices, New Delhi, India Sri Ram Khanna, Delhi School of Economics, University of Delhi, New Delhi, India FlavioH elmond Macieira, Ministerio dos RelacionesE xteriores, Brasilia, Brazil Will Martin, National Centre for Development Studies, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia Stanislaw Patek, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Stockholm, Sweden Marcelo Raffaelli, GATT,G eneva, Switzerland Michel Salib, GATT,G eneva, Switzerland Darry H. E. Salim, Permanent Representative of Indonesia, Geneva, Switzerland Gary Sampson, GATT, Geneva, Switzerland Klaus Peter Schmallenbach.,E uropean Community, Brussels, Belgium Robert Shepherd, United States Trade Representative, Geneva, Switzerland Wolfgang Siebeck,T he World Bank, Geneva, Switzerland K. A. Sivaramakrishnan, Ministry of Commerce, New Delhi, India Michael Sze, Trade Department, Hong Kong Wendy Takacs, University of Maryland, Baltimore, Maryland, USA Claudio Valle, Department ofE xternal Affairs, Ottowa, Ontario, Canada John Whalley, Centre for the Study of International Economic Relations, London, Ontario, Canada Peter Wise, Hong Kong Government Office, London, Great Britain Martin Wolf, Financial Times, London, Great Britain S. G. Yazdani, Permanent Mission of Pakistan, Geneva, Switzerland

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Textiles trade and the developing countries: eliminating the multi-fibre arrange- ment in Rockefeller Foundation and Catherine Gwin; and the World Bank, in method. We assumed that the prices and quantities observed in 1986 .. skills in production and marketing and design capability-and an im-.
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