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Energy Bulletins 2020 PDF

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ll'llm - = MISSOURI DEPARTMENT OF 19 NATURAL RESOURCES DIVISION OF ENERGY MISSOURI ENERGY BULLETIN January 14, 2020 (Data are for the week ending January 3, 2020, unless stated otherwise.) Crude Oil U.S. crude oil prices increased by $1.18 to $59.61 per barrel in the past month and are 14 percent higher compared to this time last year. Crude Oil - Near Month Future Prices (dollars per barrel) -- -- -- --- -- 01-08-20 12-04-19 change 01-09-19 change NYMEX $59.61 $58.43 up 2% $52.36 up 14% Crude Oil • On January 8, crude oil futures for delivery on the NYMEX ended lower on the week to settle at $59.61 per barrel. The price for crude oil futures is $1.18, or 2 percent, above the month-ago level. • Compared to this time last year, the U.S. crude oil futures settlement price of $59.61 is $7.25, or 14 percent, higher. • In the January 8, 2020 edition of This Week in Petroleum, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) noted that crude oil prices increased following the January 3, 2020, U.S. military operation in Iraq, likely reflecting an increase in geopolitical risk. • Domestic crude production was unchanged relative to the prior week at 12.9 million barrels per day (MMB/D). Last year at this time, production stood at approximately 11.7 MMB/D. • Total crude imports were up over the prior week at approximately 6.7 MMB/D. Imports at this time last year were approximately 7.8 MMB/D. 1 • U.S. crude oil supplies increased 1.2 MMB on the week to 431.1 MMB. U.S. supplies are 8.6 MMB lower compared to this time last year. • U.S. refinery crude runs were lower relative to the prior week with refineries processing approximately 16.9 MMB/D. U.S. refinery capacity utilization was higher on the week at 93.0 percent. Last year at this time, capacity use stood at approximately 96.1 percent. • Gasoline output was lower on the week at approximately 8.9 MMB/D. Output was approximately 9.4 MMB/D at this time last year. Distillate output was lower than the prior week at approximately 5.3 MMB/D. Last year at this time, production stood at 5.6 MMB/D. • Total petroleum products supplied to market, a measure of consumption, over the last four-week period stood at 20.6 MMB/D, 0.7 percent higher than the same period last year. Transportation Fuels (Note: Gasoline and diesel prices may be obtained from the American Automobile Association (AAA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), as described below. Effective 06/25/2019, the Division of Energy no longer conducts phone surveys to obtain the prices for these fuels.) For access to additional information on regional and national gasoline prices, stocks, production, and demand, please visit: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/gasoline.php. To navigate to the above URL from EIA’s home page, select the “Sources & Uses” tab at the top of the page, click on “This Week in Petroleum,” and then click on the “GASOLINE” tab. For access to and additional information on Missouri gasoline and diesel price averages by city and county, please visit: https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=MO. • At approximately $2.58, the U.S. average price for regular gasoline on January 6 was 0.3 cents per gallon, or less than 1 percent, lower compared to last month. • The U.S. average price for regular gasoline is 34.1 cents per gallon, or 15 percent, higher compared to this time last year. In the past week, the U.S. average increased by approximately 0.7 cents. • Gasoline imports decreased from the prior week at approximately 0.4 MMB/D. Last year at this time, imports stood at approximately 0.6 MMB/D. • Implied demand for gasoline was lower on the week at approximately 8.1 MMB/D. Demand stood at approximately 8.7 MMB/D at this time last year. • In the past four weeks, U.S. gasoline demand has averaged approximately 9.0 MMB/D. 2 Motor Gasoline • U.S. gasoline supplies are up 9.1 MMB on the week at 251.6 MMB. U.S. supplies are US Stocks in Millions of Barrels approximately 3.5 MMB higher than this time last year. ., 250 .. • Distillate stocks increased 5.4 MMB on the week a..i at 139.1 MMB and stand 0.9 MMB lower ~ 240 compared to the same period last year. C: 0 § 230 ~ • Distillate demand was higher on the week at approximately 3.4 MMB/D. Demand stood at 220 approximately 3.0 MMB/D at this time last year. 210 On a four-week average, distillate demand was a) ..... C. u > lower at approximately 3.7 MMB/D. 0" ' ~ "Q'J CQJl z0 N • On January 6, Missouri’s average retail price for Transportation Fuels E85 motor fuel, conventional motor fuel Missouri Average Retail Prices containing 85 percent ethanol, was approximately Cents per Gallon $1.99 per gallon. 198.6 ■Top Bar -January 06, 2020 • On January 6, Missouri’s average retail price for Ethanol 85 195.1 B20, diesel fuel containing 20 percent biofuel, was f;:l Middle Bar -Month 156.8 Ago approximately $2.75 per gallon. □ Lower Bar -Year Ago • According to EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy 275.0 Outlook dated December 10, 2019, U.S. regular Biodiesel 20 275.9 gasoline retail prices, which averaged $2.42 per gallon in 2017 and $2.73 in 2018, were predicted 183.9 to average $2.60 in 2019 and $2.56 in 2020. 3 Natural Gas Approximately 51.0 percent (1,217,836) of Missouri households use natural gas to heat their homes. (Data updated from the most recent U.S. Census report.) Natural gas is also used to produce goods and electricity. On January 8, 2020, natural gas futures on the NYMEX closed at $2.14 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), down approximately $0.26, or 11 percent, in the past month. Natural Gas - Near Month Future Prices (dollars per MMBtu) -01--08--20 -12--04--19 -cha-ng-e -01--09--19 -cha-ng-e NYMEX $2.14 $2.40 down 11% $2.98 down 28% • The February 2020 NYMEX futures contract Natural Gas settled at $2.14 per MMBtu on January 8, $0.02 higher than the January 1 settlement. Near-Month Future Prices at the NYMEX $5.00 -r------r-~-~----.----r--..------r----,---, • In the past month, the futures contract has decreased 26 cents, or 11 percent. .. • Futures are down $0.84, or 28 percent, in the past year. .CG.J . ~ $3.00 -H½---+---+--~- • According to EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage 0 C Report, U.S. natural gas supplies are at 3,148 billion cubic feet (Bcf), 19.8 percent higher than last year at this time and 2.4 percent higher than .., .., .C-X,) u .a-,, u 0 the 5-year average. 0 0 0 0 0N N N N • According to the EIA, net withdrawals from working gas totaled 44 Bcf for the week ending January 3. • For the week ending January 2, temperatures averaged warmer than normal in across most of the U.S. and cooler than normal in the Southwest. Heating degree days nationally were 60 below the normal, while cooling degree days were two above the normal. • According to EIA, total U.S. consumption of natural gas increased 10 percent over the prior report week. Residential and commercial consumption increased by 15 percent. Natural gas consumed for power generation increased by 11 percent on the week. Industrial sector consumption increased 2 percent on the week. Natural gas exports to Mexico increased 16 percent from the prior week. 4 Propane Approximately 8.9 percent (213,192) of Missouri households use propane to heat their homes. (Data updated from the most recent U.S. Census report.) Propane is also used to support commercial operations, produce goods, dry grain harvests and fuel vehicles. Please note that the sample of propane distributors surveyed by the Missouri Division of Energy has changed as a part of the Division’s participation in EIA’s State Heating Oil and Propane Program. On January 6, the average Missouri retail price for residential propane was approximately $1.55 per gallon, down 4.2 cents, or 3 percent, in the past month. Propane - Retail Prices (cents per gallon) -01--06--20 -12--02--19 -cha-ng-e -01--21--19 -cha-ng-e Missouri 155.0 159.2 down 3% 169.8 down 9% • According to the Division of Energy’s most recent Prooane statewide propane price survey conducted Residential Pri~es Th.roughout the January 6, the average Missouri retail residential Heatin Season for U.S. and Missouri 270 propane price was approximately $1.55 per gallon. 250 C: .2 230 i • U.S. propane/propylene stocks increased over the ~ 210 prior report week at 88.9 MMB. As of January 3, Ill c. 190 U.S. propane/propylene stocks were 20.1 MMB, ."..' ~ 170 or 29 percent, higher than the year-ago inventory u 150 level for the same time of year. Midwest inventories are lower for the report week at 19.5 130 00 MMB. Midwest inventories stood at "' 0 N approximately 20.4 MMB at the same time last year. - US - MO • U.S. propane consumption was higher week-over-week at 1.5 MMB/D. Consumption stood at approximately 1.5 MMB/D at the same time last year. 5 For more information on propane, please visit: https://energy.mo.gov/resources/be-prepared-for-propane To access previous issues of the Energy Bulletin, or to subscribe, please visit: https://energy.mo.gov/energy-bulletins To learn more about Missouri energy issues, please visit: http://energy.mo.gov/energy For more information about the Comprehensive State Energy Plan, please visit: https://energy.mo.gov/comprehensive-state-energy-plan The Missouri Energy Bulletin is distributed twice a month by the Missouri Department of Natural Resources’ Division of Energy. The Division of Energy collects E-85, B-20, and propane heating fuel prices from a sample of retail providers located throughout the state. The average price reported is based on these sample prices and may or may not reflect the actual price of a particular retail provider. To preserve confidentiality, price data are averaged. The bulletin is a public resource made available to state government decision-makers and other interested individuals upon request and online at the Division’s web address. The Department thanks each of the following in helping to provide accurate, timely data on fuel supplies and prices: the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration; the National Association of State Energy Officials; the St. Louis AAA Auto Club; and Missouri's energy retailers. For more information, contact: MO Dept. of Natural Resources, Division of Energy, P.O. Box 176, Jefferson City, MO 65102; Phone: 573-751-2254; Fax: 573-751-6860; Email: [email protected]; Web Address: https://energy.mo.gov/energy-bulletins. 6 ll'llm - = MISSOURI DEPARTMENT OF 19 NATURAL RESOURCES DIVISION OF ENERGY D MISSOURI ENERGY BULLETIN ivis January 27, 2020 ion (Data are for the week ending January 17, 2020, unless stated otherwise.) Crude Oil of Ene U.S. crude oil prices decreased by $4.19 to $56.74 per barrel in the past month and are 8 percent higher compared to this time last year. rgy Crude Oil - Near Month Future Prices (dollars per barrel) ---- ---- -- 01-22-20 12-18-19 change 01-23-19 change NYMEX $56.74 $60.93 down 7% $52.62 up 8%  On January 22, crude oil futures for delivery on Crude Oil the NYMEX ended lower on the week to settle at $56.74 per barrel. The price for crude oil futures is • $4.19, or 7 percent, below the month-ago level.  Compared to this time last year, the U.S. crude oil I futures settlement price of $56.74 is $4.12, or 8 percent, higher.  In the January 23, 2020 edition of This Week in Petroleum, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that slowing crude -i----,---+--+~~---+--' oil production growth due to a decline in drilling ~,ll)JXj rigs during the past year will likely continue through most of 2020.  Domestic crude production was unchanged relative to the prior week at 13.0 million barrels per day (MMB/D). Last year at this time, production stood at approximately 11.9 MMB/D.  Total crude imports were down over the prior week at approximately 6.4 MMB/D. Imports at this time last year were approximately 8.2 MMB/D. 1  U.S. crude oil supplies decreased 0.4 MMB on the week to 428.1 MMB. U.S. supplies are 16.9 MMB lower compared to this time last year.  U.S. refinery crude runs were lower relative to the prior week with refineries processing approximately 16.9 MMB/D. U.S. refinery capacity utilization was lower on the week at 90.5 percent. Last year at this time, capacity use stood at approximately 92.9 percent.  Gasoline output was higher on the week at approximately 9.5 MMB/D. Output was approximately 9.6 MMB/D at this time last year. Distillate output was lower than the prior week at approximately 5.0 MMB/D. Last year at this time, production stood at 5.2 MMB/D.  Total petroleum products supplied to market, a measure of consumption, over the last four-week period stood at 20.0 MMB/D, 1.6 percent lower than the same period last year. Transportation Fuels (Note: Gasoline and diesel prices may be obtained from the American Automobile Association (AAA) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), as described below. Effective 06/25/2019, the Division of Energy no longer conducts phone surveys to obtain the prices for these fuels.) For access to additional information on regional and national gasoline prices, stocks, production, and demand, please visit: https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/gasoline.php. To navigate to the above URL from EIA’s home page, select the “Sources & Uses” tab at the top of the page, click on “This Week in Petroleum,” and then click on the “GASOLINE” tab. For access to and additional information on Missouri gasoline and diesel price averages by city and county, please visit: https://gasprices.aaa.com/?state=MO.  At approximately $2.54, the U.S. average price for regular gasoline on January 20 was 0.1 cents per gallon, or less than 1 percent, higher compared to last month.  The U.S. average price for regular gasoline is 28.6 cents per gallon, or 13 percent, higher compared to this time last year. In the past week, the U.S. average decreased by approximately 3.3 cents.  Gasoline imports increased from the prior week at approximately 0.6 MMB/D. Last year at this time, imports stood at approximately 0.6 MMB/D.  Implied demand for gasoline was higher on the week at approximately 8.7 MMB/D. Demand stood at approximately 8.9 MMB/D at this time last year.  In the past four weeks, U.S. gasoline demand has averaged approximately 8.6 MMB/D. 2  U.S. gasoline supplies are up 1.7 MMB on the Motor Gasoline week at 260.0 MMB. U.S. supplies are U.S Stocks in Millions of Barrels approximately 2.1 MMB higher than this time last year.  Distillate stocks decreased 1.2 MMB on the week at 146.0 MMB and stand 3.6 MMB higher compared to the same period last year.  Distillate demand was higher on the week at approximately 4.4 MMB/D. Demand stood at approximately 4.7 MMB/D at this time last year. On a four-week average, distillate demand was higher at approximately 3.5 MMB/D.  On January 20, Missouri’s average retail price for Transportation Fuels E85 motor fuel, conventional motor fuel Missouri Average Retail Prices containing 85 percent ethanol, was approximately Cents per Gallon $1.94 per gallon. 193.5 ■Top Bar -January 20,  On January 20, Missouri’s average retail price for Ethanol 85 192.0 2020 B20, diesel fuel containing 20 percent biofuel, was ~ Middle Bar -Month approximately $2.75 per gallon. Ago □ Lower Bar -Year Ago  According to EIA’s latest Short-Term Energy 275.0 Outlook dated January 14, 2020, U.S. regular gasoline retail prices, which averaged $2.73 in Biodiesel 20 275.9 2018, and $2.60 per gallon in 2019, are predicted 279.9 to average $2.63 per gallon in 2020 and $2.63 per gallon in 2021. 3 Natural Gas Approximately 50.8 percent (1,218,329) of Missouri households use natural gas to heat their homes. (Data updated from the most recent U.S. Census report.) Natural gas is also used to produce goods and electricity. On January 22, 2020, natural gas futures on the NYMEX closed at $1.91 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), down approximately $0.38, or 17 percent, in the past month. Natural Gas - Near Month Future Prices (dollars per MMBtu) 01-22-20 12-18-19 change 01-23-19 change --- --- --- --- --- NYMEX $1.91 $2.29 down 17% $3.38 down 43%  The February 2020 NYMEX futures contract settled at $1.91 per MMBtu on January 22, $0.22 Natural Gas lower than the January 15 settlement. Near-Month Future Prices at the NYMEX $4.80  In the past month, the futures contract has • decreased 38 cents, or 17 percent. .:,, iIC .. $3.80  Futures are down $1.47, or 43 percent, in the past i' year. .Ca.i . i "' ~ $2.80 t t  According to EIA’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage C • . Report, U.S. natural gas supplies are at 2,947 billion cubic feet (Bcf), 23.2 percent higher than .. $1.80 last year at this time and 9.3 percent higher than the 5-year average. "(0X ') "0(! 'l 0u 00N N N N  According to the EIA, net withdrawals from working gas totaled 92 Bcf for the week ending January 17.  For the week ending January 16, temperatures averaged warmer than normal across most of the U.S. and cooler than normal in the Northwest. Heating degree days nationally were 65 below the normal, while cooling degree days were 3 above the normal.  According to EIA, total U.S. consumption of natural gas increased 17 percent over the prior report week. Residential and commercial consumption increased by 27 percent. Natural gas consumed for power generation increased by 15 percent on the week. Industrial sector consumption increased 3 percent on the week. Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 7 percent from the prior week. 4

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