Clean Air and Healthy Lungs: Enhancing the World Bank's Approach to Air Quality Management

130 Pages·2015·3.41 MB·English

by  World Bank Group

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FEBRUARY 2015
WORLD BANK GROUP REPORT NUMBER ACS9035

ENVIRONMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES GLOBAL PRACTICE DISCUSSION PAPER 03
CLEAN AIR AND
HEALTHY LUNGS
Enhancing the World Bank’s
Approach to Air Quality
Management
Yewande Awe, Jostein Nygard, Steinar Larssen,
Heejoo Lee, Hari Dulal, and Rahul Kanakia
© 2015 World Bank Group
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Cover images starting at the top right: Sura Nualpradid, Ghana; Hung Chung Chih, Beijing; View Apart, South Africa; Andrey
Bayda, Cambodia.
CONTENTS
Foreword vii
Acknowledgments ix
List of Acronyms xi
Executive Summary xiii
Chapter One: Introduction 1
Background 1
Objectives of this Report 2
Institutional Context for this Report 2
Drivers of Air Pollution in Developing Countries 4
Sources and Impacts of Air Pollution 5
Air Pollution and Air Quality Management in Developing Countries: Status, Challenges, and Progress 8
Summary 12
Chapter Two: A Review of the World Bank Project Portfolio of Air-Pollution-Relevant Projects 15
Objectives of Portfolio Review 15
Underlying Principles—Linkages between Air Pollution Sources, Air Pollution
Concentrations, and Impacts on Human Health 15
Methodology 16
Overview of the Air-Pollution-Relevant Portfolio 17
Potential Public Health Impacts of the Air-Pollution-Relevant Portfolio 22
Observations and Conclusions 23
Chapter Three: A Review of Case Examples 25
Methodology 25
Eff ectiveness of the Case Study Projects 26
Lessons Learned from the Case Study Projects 29
Chapter Four: A Proposed Approach for Estimating the Air Quality and Health Impacts of World Bank Projects 33
Introduction 33
Integrated Air Quality Management Concept 33
Considerations for Application of Integrated Air Quality Management Concept in World Bank Projects 34
Chapter Five: Conclusions and Recommendations 37
Appendix A: Air Quality Status and Challenges in Various Regions 41
Appendix B: Methodologies for Assessing Health Impacts of Air Pollution Reduction Projects 47
Appendix C: Methodology for Review for the World Bank Project Portfolio that is Relevant
to Air Pollution 53
Appendix D: Review of Case Examples 71
Appendix E: Idea Note for Methodology for Integration of SLCP Compounds in
Air Quality Management Modeling 89
Appendix F: Project Typologies, Air Pollution Aspects, and Some Relevant Emissions Data Requirements 95
References 103
Enhancing the World Bank's Approach to Air Quality Management iii
BOXES
Box 1.1: Air Pollutants, Sources, and Health Eff ects 6
Box C1: Activities under Pollution Management and Environmental Health Theme Code 54
FIGURES
Figure ES.1: Comparison of Ambient Air Pollution and Other Environmental Health Risks in
Developing Countries (Premature Deaths) xiv
Figure ES.2: PM Data for Cities in Selected Regions and Countries (Yearly Average in μg/m3) xv
10
Figure ES.3: Economic Burden of Health Damage Associated with Ambient Air Pollution xv
Figure ES.4: Trends in Deaths from Ambient Air Pollution (PM), by Region, 1990–2010 xvi
Figure ES.5: Air-Pollution-Relevant Single Projects by Product Line xvii
Figure 1.1: Global Air Pollution Deaths in 2012 by Disease 7
Figure 1.2: Comparison of Air Pollution (PM) and Other Environmental Health Risks in
Developing Countries’ Premature Deaths 7
Figure 1.3: Relationship between Pollution, Urban Labor Productivity, and Urban Livability 8
Figure 1.4: Economic Burden of Health Damage Associated with Ambient Air Pollution as Percentage of GDP 9
Figure 1.5: PM Data for Cities in Selected Regions and Countries (Yearly Average in μg/m3) 10
10
Figure 1.6: Trends in Deaths from Ambient Air Pollution (PM), by Region, 1990–2010 10
Figure 1.7: Development in PM Concentrations in Chinese Cities (a) and Huhot City (b), 1997–2012 12
10
Figure 2.1: Relationship between Air Pollution Sources, Air Pollution Concentrations, and Health Impacts 16
Figure 2.2: Relationship between Emissions, Air Pollution Concentrations, Exposure, and Health Impacts 16
Figure 2.3: Distribution of Air-Pollution-Relevant Projects by Sector Board 18
Figure 2.4: Air-Pollution-Relevant Projects by Product Line 19
Figure 2.5: Air-Pollution-Relevant Projects by Lending Instrument (IBRD/IDA Product Line Only) 19
Figure 2.6: Distribution of Air-Pollution-Relevant Projects by Region 20
Figure 3.1: PM Concentrations at the Parque O’Higgins Station, Santiago, Chile, 1989–2012 27
2.5
Figure 3.2: Annual Ambient PM Concentrations in Lima-Callao, Peru, 2003–12 (μg/m3; 3-Year Moving Averages) 27
2.5
Figure 3.3: Population-Weighted Average Concentration for Diff erent Emission Reduction Scenarios, PM 28
2.5
Figure 3.4: Health Impacts of Ambient Air Pollution per Unit of Income in Lima-Callao 28
Figure 3.5: Annual Health Benefi ts from Five out of Eight Abatement Scenarios in Ulaanbaatar, 2010–13 30
Figure 3.6: Comparing Health Benefi ts of Two Interventions: Certifi ed Stoves and Relocation into
Apartments in Ulaanbaatar 30
Figure 4.1: Framework for Comprehensive Integrated Air Quality Management 34
Figure 4.2: Air Pollution and Health Impact Assessment Process 35
Figure A.1: PM Data from Cities in Selected Regions and Countries (Yearly Average in μg/m3) 41
10
Figure B.1: Relationship between Emissions, Air Pollution Concentrations, Exposure, and Health Impacts 48
Figure B.2: Schematic Representation of AirQUIS 51
Figure D.1: Numbers and Types of Buses in Santiago, Chile, 2006–13 73
iv Clean Air and Healthy Lungs
Figure D.2: PM Concentrations at the Parque O’Higgins Station, Santiago Chile, 1989–2012 74
2.5
Figure D.3: Monthly Average PM Concentrations in Ulaanbaatar, June 2008–May 2009 75
2.5
Figure D.4: Population Distribution in Ulaanbaatar, 2008 76
Figure D.5: Modeled Spatial Distribution of PM in Ulaanbaatar 77
2.5
Figure D.6: Annual Health Benefi ts from 5 Out of 8 Abatement Scenarios in Ulaanbaatar from 2010–23 78
Figure D.7: The Cost of Delaying Short-Term Measures–Comparing Health Benefi ts between the
Certifi ed Stoves and the Relocation into Apartments Scenarios in Ulaanbaatar 80
Figure D.8: Needed Reduction in PM and PM Concentration Levels to Reach Air Quality Standards 81
10 2.5
Figure D.9: Development in PM Concentrations at Zuul Ail Station in Ulaanbaatar 2010–13 82
10
Figure D.10: Cost of Environmental Health Damage in Peru 83
Figure D.11: Health Impacts of Ambient Air Pollution per Unit of Income in Lima-Callao 83
Figure D.12: Marginal Costs and Benefi ts of Actions to Reduce Particulate Matter Emissions in Peru 84
Figure D.13: Annual Ambient PM Concentrations in Lima-Callao 2003–12 (μg/m3; 3-Year Moving Averages) 87
2.5
Figure E.1: Principal Concept of Analytical Air Quality Management 93
Figure E.2: Population Weighted Average Concentration for Given Emission Reductions, PM 94
2.5
TABLES
Table 2.1: Distribution of the Reviewed Project Portfolio across World Bank Sectors/Themes and Sector Boards 17
Table 2.2: Distribution of Air-Pollution-Relevant Projects by Typology 21
Table 3.1: Characteristics of the Three Case Study Projects 26
Table 3.2: Estimated Annual Health Impact of Ambient Air Pollution from Particulate Matter in Peru 31
Table A.1: Fifty Cities with the Highest Annual Mean Concentrations of PM (in μg/m3) 42
10
Table C.1: Grouping of Project Activities into Typologies 55
Table C.2: World Bank Air-Pollution-Relevant Projects (Approved FY02–12: Closed Projects) 56
Table C.3: World Bank Air-Pollution-Relevant Projects (Approved FY08–13: Active and Closed Projects) 60
Table C.4: Qualitative Classifi cation of Health Impact Reduction Potential of Abatements in
Air-Pollution-Relevant Projects 67
Table D.1: Characteristics of the Three Case Study Projects 72
Table D.2: Emissions from Main Air Pollution Sources in Ulaanbaatar, 2008 (Tons/Year) 76
Table D.3: Population Weighted Exposure to PM in Ulaanbaatar as Calculated by the Air Pollution Model 77
Table D.4: Statistically Signifi cant or Near-Signifi cant Mortality Eff ect Estimates for PM
and NO , June 2008–May 2009 78
2
Table D.5: Comparison of Present Value (PV) of Health Benefi ts (Base Case) with
Net Present Value (NPV) of Implementing Costs, and Net Benefi t (PV minus NPV) for the
Eight Abatement Scenarios, 2010 ($ millions) 79
Table D.6: Average PM Concentrations at Zuul Ail Stations 2008–13 82
10
Table D.7: Estimated Annual Health Impact of Urban Air Pollution from Particulate Matter 83
Table D.8: Peru DPL Program Development Objectives, Key Indicators, Baseline and Program Outcomes 85
Table E.1: Lifetimes, Radiative Effi ciencies, and GWPs Relative to CO 92
2
Enhancing the World Bank's Approach to Air Quality Management v

FOREWORD
Paula Caballero
Senior Director for Environment and Natural Resources Global Practice
World Bank
and
Ede Iijasz-Vasquez
Senior Director for Social, Urban, Rural and Resilience Global Practice
World Bank
It goes without saying that we all need to breathe to live—but for many people in the
world today, breathing can also lead to death. In fact, 3.7 million people died world-
wide in 2012 alone from the chronic or the acute eff ects of breathing in atmospheric
pollutants, according to the World Health Organization. Eighty-eight percent of these
deaths occurred in low- and middle-income countries.
In 2010, ambient air pollution was the fi fth leading cause of premature death in the
developing world and the third highest environmental health risk. We know that the
poor suff er the most because they have fewer options to move to cleaner neighbor-
hoods or take protective measures.
If left unaddressed, these problems are expected to grow worse over time, as the world
continues to urbanize at an unprecedented and challenging speed. Urban, peri-urban,
and rural pollution emissions combine in dangerous ways. Defi ciencies in transport,
industrial practices, workplace safety, and housing expose people to toxic emissions at
home, at work, and in-between. In many cities around the world, the lack of adequate
air quality control and enforcement puts millions of people at risk of developing debil-
itating and often fatal illnesses related to ambient air pollution.
The economic burden of air pollution also weighs heavily on developing countries.
Premature death, illness, lost earnings, and medical costs can hurt productivity,
which is essential for economic growth. This can hamper a growing city’s ability to
provide the very opportunities that new urban residents expect, whether services or
infrastructure.
These risks, in the 21st century, are not acceptable— and the World Bank Group is
taking action.
The analysis contained in this report is a fi rst step toward a more systematic, cross-
sectoral, and evidence-based approach to enhancing air quality management in World
Bank lending and technical assistance to developing countries. The report highlights
Enhancing the World Bank's Approach to Air Quality Management vii
that improving air quality can be achieved in the face of urbanization when proactive
leaders are willing to institute the right policies and investments: a nation can have
clean air and healthy lungs in addition to the economic benefi ts of urbanization.
It fi nds that World Bank interventions can be more successful if air quality manage-
ment is clearly prioritized rather than treated as an add-on, investments proceed on
the basis of solid analytical foundations and are appropriately cross-sectoral to address
the diverse sources of ambient air pollution in diff erent country contexts. Report les-
sons will help guide the collaboration of diff erent centers of expertise at the World
Bank—whether they be staff ed by urban, rural, health, transport, energy, or environ-
mental specialists—to deliver more optimal pollution management and environmental
health results.
We also have a good idea of the tools and models that have worked in diff erent parts
of the world to turn the corner on decades of rising pollution and put cities on a more
livable and economically attractive footing. We now need to step up our game and
adopt a more comprehensive approach to fi xing air quality, so that people can breathe
more easily and enjoy longer, healthier, and more productive lives.
At a time when megacities are emerging at great speed in places like South and East
Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa, and with much of urban population growth expected to
take place in developing countries by 2050, it is imperative that we fi nd collaborative
solutions to enhance air quality management and lessen the health burden of pollu-
tion. Without further action, air pollution will continue to worsen and become a mas-
sive hurdle to achieving a prosperous future for the poor and bottom 40 percent of the
world’s population. Eff ective interventions, on the other hand, promise to deliver mul-
tiple wins in terms of productivity, quality of life, and even climate change. Enhanc-
ing air quality management is a no-regrets development option. It should become a
priority investment.
viii Clean Air and Healthy Lungs