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African Economic Outlook: 2015 PDF

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African Economic Outlook 2016 SPECIAL THEME: Sustainable Cities and Structural Transformation Algeria Angola Benin Botswana Burkina Faso Burundi Cabo Verde Cameroon Central African Republic Chad Comoros Congo Congo, Dem. Rep. Côte d’Ivoire Djibouti Egypt Equatorial Guinea Eritrea Ethiopia Gabon Gambia Ghana Guinea Guinea-Bissau ÉCOLE Kenya Lesotho Liberia Libya Madagascar Malawi Mali Mauritania Mauritius Morocco Mozambique Namibia Niger EDITION Nigeria AFRICAN Rwanda ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Sao Tome and Principe Senegal Seychelles Sierra Leone Somalia South Africa South Sudan Sudan Swaziland Tanzania Togo Tunisia Uganda Zambia Zimbabwe AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK GROUP African Economic Outlook 2016 SUSTAINABLE CITIES AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION The opinions expressed and arguments employed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the African Development Bank, its Boards of Directors or the countries they represent; the OECD, its Development Centre or their member countries; or the United Nations Development Programme. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. ISBN 978-92-64-25646-0 (print) ISBN 978-92-64-25647-7 (PDF) DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/aeo-2016-en Photo credits: Cover design by the Development Centre based on images © Brumarina, Nucleartist, ideyweb, Crystal Home, A7880S, tovovan, quka/Shutterstock.com. The front cover symbolises the dynamics of tomorrow’s African sustainable cities in an abstract way. Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm. © African Development Bank, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, United Nations Development Programme (2016) You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgement of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to [email protected]. Requests for permission to photocopy portions of this material for public or commercial use shall be addressed directly to the Copyright Clearance Center (CCC) at [email protected] or the Centre français d’exploitation du droit de copie (CFC) at [email protected]. Foreword The African Economic Outlook (AEO) celebrates its 15th edition this year. The African Development Bank, the OECD Development Centre and the United Nations Development Programme partner to produce this annual report. A team of over 100 researchers, economists, statisticians and other experts from Africa and other regions of the world collaborate on the AEO. The AEO analyses the present state of affairs in Africa, provides two-year forecasts and addresses a special theme, supporting all with extensive data. The five chapters in Part I cover economic and social aspects of the continent and allude to this year’s theme: sustainable cities and structural transformation. Part II’s three chapters concentrate solely on the theme, building on analysis from the African Economic Outlook 2015: Regional Development and Spatial Inclusion. Country notes on each of Africa’s 54 countries constitute Part III; their short version is produced here. For the first time, the statistical annex includes a table on gender, comparing indicators from the three partner organisations. The African Economic Outlook is available in various editions and formats. For the AEO’s 15th anniversary, the partners have redesigned the website: www.africaneconomicoutlook.org. The site is now easier to navigate and houses past editions, in addition to the following: • this report in English and French and an abridged version in Portuguese • the full-length country notes in their original language and accompanying individual tables and figures • an overview of the report’s chapters with key figures by subregion, in English and French. © AfDB, OECD, UNDP 2016 African Economic Outlook 3 Editorial Africa’s economic performance held firm in 2015, amid global headwinds and regional shocks. Growth in real GDP is estimated at 3.6%, higher than the 3.1% for the global economy and 1.5% for the euro area. Africa remained the world’s second fastest growing economy after East Asia. In 2015, sub-Saharan Africa (excluding South Africa) grew faster than the continental average, at 4.2%, with East Africa leading the way at 6.3%. Growth in Central, North and West Africa was above 3%, while Southern Africa grew by an average of 2.2%. Looking ahead, average growth in Africa is expected to remain moderate at 3.7% in 2016 but could accelerate to 4.5% in 2017. This forecast hinges on the strength of the world economy and a gradual recovery in commodity prices. In 2015, total external flows to Africa were estimated at USD 208 billion, with remittances remaining the main contributor. Confirming the world’s positive outlook on the continent, African governments have been able to tap into international capital markets through sovereign bond issuances. However, due to global headwinds and some country-specific risks, interest rates inched higher. The global economic environment is affecting African countries differently. Revenues are dropping in resource-rich countries, while oil importers are benefiting from lower inflation as well as less pressure on current accounts. Amid tighter global financial conditions, some countries face large fiscal deficits. The resilience in Africa’s growth is partly owed to domestic factors, including private consumption, public infrastructure development and private investment. In the medium term, continued improvement in the business environment and fast expanding regional markets may increasingly become new sources of growth for the continent. The rise of intra-regional trade, in particular, illustrates growing opportunities for African producers to diversify their trade. Africa also possesses significant potential for a demographic dividend, spurred by the continent’s young population. However, to benefit from this potential, governments must focus on putting in place and implementing the right policies. Turning Africa’s steady resilience into better lives for Africans requires strong policy action to promote faster and more inclusive growth. Three out of every four Africans still live under poor human conditions, compared to one in five globally. To achieve the development objectives set by African institutions and the international community, African countries must deepen structural and regulatory reforms, foster macroeconomic stability, and tackle power supply bottlenecks in order to address the obstacles to the transformation of their economies. Coupled with investment in social sectors, this will open up more opportunities for youth and for women. Africa’s ongoing, multi-faceted urban transition and the densification it produces offer new opportunities for improving economic and social development while protecting the environment. These can be better harnessed to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) – especially SDG 11 on sustainable cities and communities – and the objectives of the African Union’s Agenda 2063. The benefits could accrue to both urban and rural dwellers, provided governments adopt an integrated approach. For instance, connecting urban markets to rural economies could increase productivity of agriculture and raise non-farm incomes. Accelerating investment in urban infrastructure is critical to turn African cities and towns into engines of structural transformation at the local, national and regional levels. In order to seize this “urbanisation dividend”, a number of bold policy reforms are necessary. For example, national urban strategies must be tailored to specific contexts, harness innovative financing instruments, and strengthen ongoing efforts to promote efficient multi-level governance systems. © AfDB, OECD, UNDP 2016 African Economic Outlook 5 EDitOriAl In 2016, the emerging common African position on urban development and the international New Urban Agenda provide the opportunity to discuss different options and begin moulding ambitious urbanisation policies into concrete strategies for Africa’s structural transformation. This edition marks the 15th anniversary of the African Economic Outlook. It is our hope that this report will continue to inform decisions and to stimulate a rich dialogue on the way forward for Africa’s development. Akinwumi Ayodeji Adesina Angel Gurría Helen Clark President, Secretary-General, Administrator, African Development Organisation for Economic United Nations Bank Group, Co-operation and Development, Development Programme, Abidjan Paris New York 6 African Economic Outlook © AfDB, OECD, UNDP 2016 Acknowledgements The African Economic Outlook (AEO) was prepared by a consortium of three teams from the African Development Bank (AfDB), the OECD Development Centre and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The Outlook benefited from the overall guidance of Abebe Shimeles (Acting Director, Development Research Department, AfDB), Mario Pezzini (Director, OECD Development Centre) and Ayodele Odusola (Chief Economist and Head of the Strategic Advisory Unit, Regional Bureau for Africa, UNDP). Willi Leibfritz was the Co-ordinator. The AfDB team was led by Anthony Simpasa. Key team members included Zorobabel T. Bicaba and Adeleke Oluwole Salami. The team at the OECD Development Centre was led by Henri-Bernard Solignac-Lecomte, while the team at UNDP was led by Angela Lusigi. Part I on Africa’s performance and prospects was drafted by Willi Leibfritz, based on the forecast provided by the AfDB Statistics Department (Chapter 1), Helmut Reisen, Robert Kappel and Birte Pfeiffer (Chapter 2) who also contributed Box 1.1, Mouhamadou Sy, Zorobabel T. Bicaba and Anthony Simpasa (Chapter 3), Angela Lusigi (Chapter 4) and Bakary Traoré, Sébastien Markley, Anissa Bensaïd and Héloïse Daste (Chapter 5). Chapters 2 and 3 benefited from data analysis by Bakary Traoré and Sébastien Markley. Part II on sustainable cities and structural transformation was drafted by Arthur Minsat with valuable assistance from Thang Nguyen, Héloïse Daste, Paula Misler, Mmachukwu Oyeka, Lennart Ploen, Anissa Bensaïd, Luisa Freitas and Paula Rettl as well as key input from Edgar Pieterse, Susan Parnell and Anton Cartwright (African Centre for Cities). In collaboration with the partner institutions and under the overall guidance of the AfDB regional directors and lead economists, all AfDB country economists have contributed to the country notes. In most cases, they collaborated with UNDP country economists and/or Development Centre economists. The work on the country notes greatly benefited from the valuable contributions of local consultants in selected countries. The country notes were drafted by the people below. Country Authors Algeria Tarik Benbahmed, Hervé Lohoues and Mickaelle Chauvin Angola Joel Muzima and Glenda Gallardo Benin Daniel Ndoye, El Hadji Fall and Janvier P. Alofa Botswana George J. Honde Burkina Faso Tankien Dayo, Facinet Sylla, Amata Sangho Diabate and Hervé Marie Patrice Kouraogo Burundi Joel Tokindang and Daniel Gbetnkom Cabo Verde Adalbert Nshimyumuremyi and Anthony Simpasa Cameroon Richard Antonin Doffonsou and Corneille Agossou Central African Republic Kalidou Diallo Chad Claude N’Kodia and Ali Madaï Boukar Comoros Alassane Diabate and Attoumane Boina Issa Congo Nouridine Kane Dia and Ginette Mondongou Camara Congo, Dem. Rep. Jean Marie Vianney Dabire and Ernest Bamou Côte d’Ivoire Pascal Yembiline, Idrissa Diagne, El Allassane Baguia and Bakary Traoré Djibouti Guy Blaise Nkamleu Egypt Prajesh Bhakta, Assitan Diarra-Thioune and Angus Downie Equatorial Guinea Dominique Puthod and Domingos Mazivila Eritrea Nyende Magidu and Luka Jovia Okumu Ethiopia Admit Wondifraw Zerihun, James Wakiaga and Haile Kibret 6 African Economic Outlook © AfDB, OECD, UNDP 2016 © AfDB, OECD, UNDP 2016 African Economic Outlook 7 ACKNOWlEDGEMENtS Country Authors Gabon Dominique Puthod and Celestin Tsassa Gambia Adalbert Nshimyumuremyi and Yemesrach Assefa Workie Ghana Eline Okudzeto, Radhika Lal and Kordzo Sedegah Guinea Olivier Manlan and Mamadou Bobo Sow Guinea-Bissau Yannis Arvanitis, Francis Jony Andrianarison and Inacio Ie Kenya Walter Odero, Wilmot Reeves and Julius Chokerah Lesotho Edirisa Nseera and Asha P. Kannan Liberia Patrick Hettinger and Janice Olivia James Libya Kaouther Abderrahim-Ben Salah Madagascar Simplice Zouhonbi, Tankien Dayo and Adamson Rasolofo Malawi Peter Mwanakatwe and Alka Bhatia Mali Becaye Diarra, Abdoulaye Konate and Hamaciré Dicko Mauritania Marcellin Ndong Ntah, Isiyaka Sabo and Selma Cheikh Malainine Mauritius Ndoli Kalumiya and Emmanuel Bor Morocco Vincent Castel Mozambique Andre Almeida Santos, Luca Monge Roffarello and Manuel Filipe Namibia Martha Phiri and Fabian Mubiana Niger Facinet Sylla and Bakary Dosso Nigeria Barbara Barungi, Ojijo Odhiambo, Robert Asogwa and Alemu Zerihun Rwanda Edward Batte Sennoga Sao Tome and Principe Flavio Soares Da Gama and Idrissa Sanoussi Senegal Toussaint Houeninvo, Khadidiatou Gassama and Souleman Boukar Seychelles Tilahun Temesgen, Kim Harnack and Jacob Oduor Sierra Leone Jamal Zayid, Moses Sichei and Milton Korseh-Hindowa Somalia Richard Walker and Salome Kimani South Africa Wolassa Lawisso Kumo, Osten Chulu and Arthur Minsat South Sudan Guy Blaise Nkamleu and Frederick Mugisha Sudan Suwareh Darbo and Yousif Eltahir Swaziland Peninah Kariuki and Fatou Leigh Tanzania Chidozie Emenuga, Rogers Dhliwayo and Prosper Charle Togo Carpophore Ntagungira, Nicolas Kazadi and Jeanne Bougonou Tunisia Philippe Trape and Kaouther Abderrahim Uganda Alexis Rwabizambuga, Vera Kintu Oling, Tony Muhumuza and Simon Peter Nsereko Zambia Peter Engbo Rasmussen, Colleen Zamba and Elda Chirwa Zimbabwe Mary Manneko Monyau and Amarakoon Bandara The committee of peer reviewers of the country notes included Adamon Ndungu, Adeleke Salami, Amadou Boly, Anthony Simpasa, Audrey Chouchane, Bumi Camara, Charlotte Karagueuzian, Cherif Diagne, Dawit Birhanu, El-Haji Mamadou Bah, Emelly Mutambatsere, Eugene Bempong, Gilbert Galibaka, Jacob Oduor, Jacqueline Odula, Jennifer Moyo, John Anyanwu, Kevin Lumbila, Linguere M. Mbaye, Mawuko Kokou Kponnou, Mouhamadou Sy, Philip K. Quarcoo, Qingwei Meng, Sandrine Alissoutin, Thierry Kangoye, Zeke Ger and Zorobabel Bicaba (AfDB); Betty Camara, Elizabeth Asiedu, Sylvain Dessy, Eugenie Maiga, Una Osili, Jean-Michel Salmon, Peter Walkenhorst and Lucia Wegner. The macroeconomic framework and database used to produce the forecast and statistical annex were managed by Koua Louis Kouakou and Chaouch Anouar at the AfDB. Valuable statistical inputs for updating the database and running the AEO model were provided by Chaouch Anouar, Koffi Dian Adou, Mbiya Kadisha, Soumaila Karambiri, Doffou Marc Elisée Monsoh, Slaheddine Saidi, Stephane Regis Hauhouot, Amel Kchouk, Slim Jerbi and Mustapha Bouzaine in the AfDB Statistics Department, under the guidance of Charles Leyeka Lufumpa, Maurice Mubila, Koua Louis Kouakou and Nirina Letsara. 8 African Economic Outlook © AfDB, OECD, UNDP 2016 ACKNOWlEDGEMENtS Bakary Traoré and Sébastien Markley assembled the final dataset for publication at the OECD Development Centre. The project also benefited from the assistance provided by Rhoda Bangurah, Amira Jlassi, Abiana Nelson and Elisabeth Turner. The report benefited from extremely valuable inputs and comments from a large number of African government representatives, private-sector operators, civil society members, sector specialists in the AfDB country operations departments and field offices, the UNDP Africa Regional Bureau and Country Offices, the Sahel and West Africa Club and the OECD Development Centre, Centre for Tax Policy and Administration, Development Co-operation Directorate, Directorate for Financial and Enterprise Affairs, Public Governance and Territorial Development Directorate, Economics Department, and Trade and Agriculture Directorate. Part II on sustainable cities and structural transformation drew heavily from the knowledge of international experts invited to the AEO 2016 experts’ meeting in Paris on 8-9 October 2015: Yunzhong Liu (Development Research Center of the State Council [People’s Republic of China]); Deborah Potts (King’s College London); Nathalie Delapalme and Yannick Vuylsteke (Mo Ibrahim Foundation); François Paul Yatta (UCLGA); Javier Sanchez-Reaza and Luc Christiaensen (World Bank); Remi Jedwab (George Washington University); Susan Parnell (Department of Environmental and Geographical Sciences at the University of Cape Town); Serge Allou (Cities Alliance); Jeanette Marie Manjengwa (University of Zimbabwe); Felicity Proctor (Proctor Consulting Ltd.); Nick Godfrey and Russell Bishop (New Climate Economy); Nicolas Ronderos (Consultant); Mariam Yunusa (UN Habitat); Ronald Wall (IHS-Erasmus University Rotterdam / University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg); Jean-Fabien Steck (Université Paris Ouest Nanterre); Beacon Mbiba (Oxford Brookes University); Christel Alvergne (UNCDF); Kookie Habtegaber (WWF); Jytte Agergaard (University of Copenhagen); Anthony Bigio (George Washington University); Pierrick Hamon (Global Local Forum); Ambassador Dionisio Pérez-Jácome Friscione (Representation of Mexico to the OECD); Irène Salenson (AFD); Nora Selmet (International Energy Agency); William Tompson (OECD); Vikramdityasing Bissoonauthsing (IRCC) and Wondimu Abeje (Wondimu Consult). Annex 7.A1 was prepared by Ronald Wall (IHS-Erasmus University, Rotterdam / University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg), with assistance by Dorcas Nthoki, Marina Salimgareeva, Monserrat Budding-Polo Ballinas and Taslim Alade (IHS- Erasmus University, Rotterdam). The results of this work form part of UN-Habitat’s forthcoming “State of African Cities Report 2017” developed by Alioune Badiane, Jos Maseland, Katharina Rochell (UN-Habitat) and Ronald Wall, with support from the AfDB and the Department for International Development (DFID). Rana Roy (Consultant), François Yatta (UCLGA), Ronald Wall (IHS-Erasmus University Rotterdam / University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg) and Kookie Habtegaber (WWF) contributed internal research papers. The WWF paper was drafted by Kookie Habtegaber with input from: Laurent Some, Nigel Dudley, Aurélie Shapiro, Pablo Izquierdo, Lars Erik Mangset, Stefano Esposito, Kiran Rajashekariah, Nyambe Nyambe, Denis Landenbergue, Rod Taylor, Stuart Oor, Alexis Morgan, Valerie Burgener and Tabaré A. Currás (WWF), Julia Pierini (BirdLife Zimbabwe), David Satterthwaite (International Institute for Environment and Development), Shlomo (Solly) Angel (Marron Institute of Urban Management, NYU), Stern Nathan Karres (The Nature Conservancy) and Mark Swilling (Stellenbosch University). Essential contributions to the thematic chapters were also made by José Tonato and Clotilde Baï (AfDB); Marco Kamyia, Oyebanji Oyeyinka, Eduardo López Moreno, Regina Orvananos, Mariam Yunusa and Gulelat Kebede (UN-Habitat); Edlam Abera Yemeru, Semia Guermas Tapia and Sandra Zawedde (UNECA); William Cobbett, Rene Peter 8 African Economic Outlook © AfDB, OECD, UNDP 2016 © AfDB, OECD, UNDP 2016 African Economic Outlook 9

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