Zone of crisis : Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq and Iran

240 Pages·2014·3.019 MB·English

by  Saikal, Amin

Amin Saikal is Director of the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies
(the Middle East and Central Asia), Professor of Political Science and
Public Policy Fellow at the Australian National University. He has been a
visiting fellow at Princeton University and the University of Cambridge,
as well as at Sussex University’s Institute of Development Studies. He
has also been a Rockefeller Foundation Fellow in International Relations.
He is an elected Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences in Australia,
and was awarded the Order of Australia (AM) in 2006 for services to the
international community, and to education through the development of
the Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies, and as an author and advisor. He
is the author of a number of works on the Middle East, Central Asia and
Russia, including Islam and the West: Conflict or Cooperation? (2003); The
Rise and Fall of the Shah: Iran from Autocracy to Religious Rule (2009);
and Modern Afghanistan: A History of Struggle and Survival (I.B.Tauris,
2012). He has published numerous book chapters and journal articles as
well as providing op-ed pieces in major international dailies, including
the International Herald Tribune, the New York Times, the Wall Street
Journal, the Guardian and the Globe and Mail.

ZoneofCrisis TitlePage.indd 1 10/04/2014 22:20
Published in 2014 by I.B.Tauris & Co Ltd
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Copyright © 2014 Amin Saikal
The right of Amin Saikal to be identified as the author of this work has been asserted
by him in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations in a review, this book, or any part
thereof, may not be reproduced, stored in or introduced into a retrieval system, or
transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying,
recording or otherwise, without the prior written permission of the publisher.
ISBN: 978 1 78076 319 4
eISBN: 978 0 85773 512 6
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Contents
Preface vii
Abbreviations ix
Map xii–xiii
1 Introduction 1
2 Afghanistan: Turbulent and on the Brink 15
3 Pakistan: Fragile and Violent 59
4 Iran: Between ‘Sovereignty of God’ and ‘Sovereignty of
the People’ 99
5 Iraq: Divided and Threatened 143
6 Conclusion 177
Notes 185
Bibliography 207
Index 217

Preface
The area comprising Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran and Iraq has histor-
ically been a zone of conflict, major power rivalry and foreign inter-
ventions. These variables have interacted effectively with overlapping
internal circumstances of the states in the zone to make the region highly
volatile in the context of changing regional and international situations.
The idea for this book came to me two years ago as part of my research
focus on these four countries. The considerations that motivated me to
take on the task of writing about them in one volume was that whilst
a great deal of both scholarly and popular material in the form of
books, chapters, journal articles, reports and feature articles have been
published about each of the states, there has been little or no attempt
to study them within a zone where their landscapes have been shaped
by as many common factors as those that have set them apart from one
another in various distinct ways.
The book does not aim to provide a theoretical discourse. It essentially
seeks to furnish an analysis of the factors that have played a key role in
determining their past and present, and that are likely to influence their
future development within an integrated geostrategic zone. Nor does it
attempt to provide a detailed account of all the complex dimensions of
life in each country. The main objective is to provide a snapshot of the
most salient features that underpin the operation of state and society
in each of the constituent states and across their geographical zone to
inform those – in both the public and private sectors – who are engaged
in policymaking, journalism, education, and for those seeking general
knowledge.
In writing this book, I am deeply indebted to a number of individuals,
institutions and sources of funding. First and foremost, I owe much
gratitude to two hard-working and extremely able research assistants:
viii ZONE OF CRISIS
Jonathan Cheng and Stephanie Wright. Without their compilation,
editing and footnoting skills, I would have found it difficult to complete
this book and present it in its current form. I cannot praise them enough,
and I am especially grateful to Stephanie for her brilliance and dedication.
I am also grateful to Aly Zaman for reading the Pakistan chapter, and to
Dr Grigol Ubiria for doing a final check of the manuscript. In the course
of completing this book, I have been privileged to be able to gain much
insight into the situation in each of the countries and across the region
from a number of scholars, analysts, policymakers and political figures
who have been directly involved in the affairs of the states that the book
addresses. They are too numerous to name, and the ones who should be
named hold positions that could make them vulnerable to unwarranted
pressure in one form or another. However, they all know who they are.
Further, I remain thankful to the Australian National University
(ANU) and its Centre for Arab and Islamic Studies (the Middle East and
Central Asia) – CAIS – which I have headed as the foundation director
since 1994, for having provided me with valuable support in my research
and other academic preoccupations over the years. In recent times, no
particular individual has been as supportive as the university’s Vice-
Chancellor, Professor Ian Young. I must also thank two of our former
professional staff in CAIS – Mrs Carol Laslett and Ms Leila Kouatly
– who until recently assisted me selflessly in many administrative
responsibilities that enabled me to have the necessary time to devote to
this book and a number of other concurrent research efforts. I am also
grateful to the Australian Research Council for its Discovery Grant that
helped fund this and several other research projects.
Last but by no means least, I owe an enormous debt of gratitude to
my wife, Mary-Louise Hickey, for being such a wonderful companion
every step of the way and in every aspect of my life, including reading
a draft of this book as a very accomplished editor. Without her love,
support and patience, as well as those of my three daughters, Rahima,
Samra and Amina, I would have been a lonely scholar in the wilderness.
Amin Saikal
December 2013
Abbreviations
AAC Assembly of Assertive Clerics
AIOC Anglo-Iranian Oil Company
ANA Afghan National Army
ANDS Afghanistan National Development Strategy
ANP Afghan National Police
CENTO Central Treaty Organisation
CIA Central Intelligence Agency
CPA Coalition Provisional Authority
CSP Civil Service of Pakistan
ECC Electoral Complaints Commission
EU European Union
FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas
GCC Gulf Cooperation Council
GDP Gross domestic product
IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency
IEC Independent Election Committee
INA Iraqi National Accord
INC Iraqi National Congress
IRG Iranian Revolutionary Guard
IRP Islamic Republican Party
ISAF International Security Assistance Force
ISCI Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq
ISI Inter-Services Intelligence (Pakistan)
KDP Kurdistan Democratic Party
KRG Kurdistan Regional Government
LeT Lashkar-e-Taiba
LGO Local Government Ordinance
MP Member of Parliament