Yearbook on Space Policy 2015: Access to Space and the Evolution of Space Activities

319 Pages·5.182 MB·English

by  Cenan Al-Ekabi, Blandina Baranes, Peter Hulsroj, Arne Lahcen (eds.)

Yearbook on Space Policy
Cenan Al-Ekabi
Blandina Baranes
Peter Hulsroj
Arne Lahcen Editors
Yearbook
on Space
Policy 2015
Access to Space and the Evolution of
Space Activities
Yearbook on Space Policy
More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/8166
Yearbook on Space Policy
Edited by the
European Space Policy Institute
Director: Jean-Jacques Tortora
Editorial Advisory Board:
Herbert Allgeier
Frank Asbeck
Alvaro Azcárraga
Frances Brown
Ene Ergma
Peter Jankowitsch
Gilles Maquet
Alfredo Roma
Per Tegner
Cenan Al-Ekabi (cid:129) Blandina Baranes (cid:129)
Peter Hulsroj (cid:129) Arne Lahcen
Editors
Yearbook on Space Policy
2015
Access to Space and the Evolution
of Space Activities
Editors
CenanAl-Ekabi BlandinaBaranes
EuropeanSpacePolicyInstitute EuropeanSpacePolicyInstitute
Vienna,Austria Vienna,Austria
PeterHulsroj ArneLahcen
EuropeanSpacePolicyInstitute EuropeanSpacePolicyInstitute
Vienna,Austria Vienna,Austria
ISSN1866-8305 ISSN2197-9405 (electronic)
YearbookonSpacePolicy
ISBN978-3-7091-4859-4 ISBN978-3-7091-4860-0 (eBook)
DOI10.1007/978-3-7091-4860-0
©Springer-VerlagGmbHAustria2017
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Preface
The market for launchers and launch services has developed rapidly over the last
decade. More competitive markets, sectoral reforms, changing policies, and insti-
tutional changes are all affecting the playing field that determines our access to
space.Whatismore,recentinnovationdynamics,increasingprivateinvolvement,
andacontinuingtrendofglobalizationwillbeimpactingthelaunchsectorandwhat
welaunchevenmoreinthefuture.Inthemid-term,itisexpectedthatthesechanges
will lead to significant cost reductions in bringing payloads to the different Earth
orbits and even beyond. In order to clarify and shed additional light on these
expectedimpactsofthesetrends,ESPIhasdecidedtofocusonthetopicofaccess
to space and the evolution of space activities from a wide variety of angles in its
YearbookonSpacePolicy2015.
Traditionally,thefirstpartoftheYearbooksetsoutacomprehensiveoverview
oftheeconomic,political,technological,andinstitutionaltrendsthataffectedspace
activities in 2015. It is prepared in-house in ESPI and while its perspective is
European, it also provides a comparative analysis of space developments around
theworld.
The second part of the ESPI Yearbook approaches the overall theme from an
analytical perspective. This year it includes ten external contributions that bring
together the views of eminent professionals and experts coming from different
branches of the space sector. The first contributions in this part of the Yearbook
offer a panoramic perspective on the elements that ultimately define how other
space activities are affected in the long run. This starts with a contribution by
CNES Director of Launchers Jean-Marc Astorg, who presents an overview of the
state-of-the-art capabilities of the European launching sector and their outlook.
Followingthis,CristinaChaplain,DirectorintheU.S.GovernmentAccountability
Office,explainshowthecommercialspacesectorintheUnitedStatesiscurrently
affecting governmental space programs. Subsequently, the future potential of
new space activities is explored in a contribution by Richard DalBello, Vice
President Business Development and Government Affairs at Virgin Galactic.
Subsequentcontributionstaketheassumptionofdeclininglaunchcostinthefuture
v
vi Preface
astepfurther,astheyassesstheimpactoffallinglaunchcostsonvariousaspectsof
spaceutilization.Inthisrespect,EurisySecretaryGeneralStefaandeMeyexplores
thefuturepotentialofspaceapplications.Thisisfollowedbyacontributionwritten
by Professor Shuang-Nan Zhang of the Chinese Academy of Sciences on the
potentialimpactsofwhathecoined“efficientaccesstospace”onspaceastronomy
andscientificprogress.LeopoldSummerer,HeadoftheESAAdvancedConcepts
Team, offers an outlook on the evolution of other enabling and game-changing
space technologies that might fundamentally impact the status quo of human
activitiesinouterspace.ThefinalcontributionsinPartIIoftheYearbookaddress
theevolvingneedsintermsofgovernance,strategies,andapproachesthatwillarise
intheplayingfieldofspaceanno2030.YoungresearchersNinaWitjes(Scientific
Researcher at the Munich Center for Technology in Society), Philipp Olbrich
(PhD Student at the Rijksuniversiteit Groningen), and Isabella Rebasso (Trainee
at the Austrian Institute for International Affairs) write about how future remote
sensingcapabilitiesmightimpacttransparencybuildingandcreateanewlandscape
forvarioussocietalactivities.ProfessorsJamesSchwartz(DepartmentofPhiloso-
phy,WichitaStateUniversity,USA)andTonyMilligan(DepartmentofTheology
andReligiousStudies,King’sCollegeLondon,UK)thenpresenttheirviewsonthe
main ethical constraints on near-Earth resource exploitation in a wide sense. The
European options to deal with the prospect of falling cost of utilizing space are
exploredbyJessePhaler,HeadoftheIndustrialReturnManagementOfficeatESA.
Finally, Staffordshire University professor and Head of Research at the British
Royal Aeronautical Society Keith Hayward sheds light on the transition to a new
businessmodelinthelaunchermarketsanditseconomicimplications.
The third part of the Yearbook continues the character of the Yearbook as an
archive of space activities. Again prepared in-house by ESPI, a bibliography,
chronology, and data about institutions are provided where readers of the now
ninevolumesoftheYearbookcanidentifystatisticaldevelopmentsandevolutions.
In closing, we would like to thank the contributors of the articles in Part Two
for their engagement in this publication. Moreover, we are very grateful to
Frances Brown, former editor-in-chief of Space Policy and current member of
the ESPI Advisory Council, for her support and inspiration as we prepared
the ESPI Autumn Conference 2015. The contributions in Part II of the Yearbook
reflectthepresentationsmadebytheauthorsattheAutumnConference.
Vienna,Austria CenanAl-Ekabi
BlandinaBaranes
PeterHulsroj
ArneLahcen
Contents
PartI TheYearinSpace2015
1 EuropeanSpaceActivitiesintheGlobalContext. . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
CenanAl-Ekabi
1.1 GlobalPoliticalandEconomicTrends. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.1.1 GlobalEconomicOutlook. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.1.2 PoliticalDevelopments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4
1.1.3 MainScienceandTechnologyIndicatorsRelevantfor
SpaceActivities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
1.2 WorldwideSpacePoliciesandStrategies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
1.2.1 TheUnitedNationsSystem. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
1.2.2 TheGrouponEarthObservation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
1.2.3 Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28
1.2.4 TheUnitedStates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
1.2.5 Canada. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
1.2.6 Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
1.2.7 Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49
1.2.8 China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
1.2.9 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53
1.2.10 Brazil. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
1.3 WorldwideSpaceBudgetsandRevenues. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
1.3.1 OverviewofInstitutionalSpaceBudgets. . . . . . . . . . 57
1.3.2 OverviewofCommercialSpaceMarkets. . . . . . . . . 62
1.3.3 DevelopmentsintheSpaceIndustry. . . . . . . . . . . . . 69
1.3.4 IndustrialOverview. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83
1.4 TheSecurityDimension. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
1.4.1 TheGlobalSpaceMilitaryContext. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 92
1.4.2 Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93
1.4.3 TheUnitedStates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 94
1.4.4 Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95
vii
viii Contents
1.4.5 Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
1.4.6 China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
1.4.7 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 99
2 DevelopmentsinSpacePolicies,ProgrammesandTechnologies
ThroughouttheWorldandinEurope. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
CenanAl-Ekabi
2.1 SpacePoliciesandProgrammes. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
2.2 SpaceTransportation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
2.2.1 Europe. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
2.2.2 UnitedStates. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 104
2.2.3 Russia. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 105
2.2.4 Japan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
2.2.5 China. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
2.2.6 India. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 107
2.3 SpaceScienceandExploration. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
2.3.1 HumanSpaceflightActivities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109
2.3.2 LunarScience. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 115
2.3.3 MarsScience. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
2.3.4 SaturnScience. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123
2.3.5 VenusScience. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 125
2.3.6 MercuryScience. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
2.3.7 JupiterScience. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
2.3.8 SolarObservation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
2.3.9 SolarSystemScience. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131
2.3.10 OuterSolarScience. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
2.4 SatelliteApplications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
2.4.1 Space-BasedCommunications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137
2.4.2 Space-BasedPositioning,NavigationandTiming
Systems. . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . .. . . . . . .. . . . 139
2.5 TechnologyDevelopments. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
2.5.1 Propulsion. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
2.5.2 SpacecraftOperationsandDesign. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141
2.5.3 SuborbitalActivities. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143
2.5.4 OtherTechnologies. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
PartII ViewsandInsightsEditedbyArneLahcen
3 IssuesandPerspectivesonSpaceLaunchVehicles’
Development. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
Jean-MarcAstorg
3.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147
3.2 TheCurrentRangeofEuropeanLauncher:Ariane5,Soyuz
andVega. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148
3.3 TheCurrentGlobalContext:FierceCompetitionanda
GuaranteedCaptiveMarketforAriane’sCompetitors. . . . . . . 149
Contents ix
3.4 TheLuxembourgDecisionofDecember2014. . . . . . . . . . . . 150
3.5 ALong-TermTrend:TheReductionofCostsforAccessing
Space. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151
4 SpaceataCrossroads:GovernmentProgrammesCanBenefitfrom
CommercialSpaceandOtherChangesIfLong-StandingChallenges
AreAddressed. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
CristinaT.ChaplainandLauraD.Hook
4.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 153
4.2 TheGAOandSpace. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154
4.3 “GoingCommercial”IsBecominganAttractiveOptionforthe
U.S.Government. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155
4.4 IndustryChangesAlsoMake“GoingCommercial”More
Attractive. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 159
4.5 WithoutAddressingLong-StandingChallenges,Going
CommercialCouldHaveNegativeConsequences. . . . . . . . . . 161
4.6 GAO’sRecommendationsCanHelpRemoveSome
Barriers. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 164
4.7 AgenciesWillStillNeedtoFixProblemsThatGoBeyond
AcquisitionManagement. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
5 VirginGalactic:CreatingSafe,Reliable,andFrequentAccessto
Space. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
RichardDalBello
5.1 Introduction. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
5.2 SpaceShipTwo. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167
5.3 HumanSpaceflight. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 170
5.4 MicrogravityResearch. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
5.5 LauncherOne. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 172
6 TheFutureofSatelliteApplications:TheEnd-User
Perspective. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
StefaanDeMey
6.1 BenefitsfromSpaceRevisited. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 175
6.2 SpaceServingSociety:UnderstandingDemandIsKeyto
BecomingPartoftheSolution. . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 176
6.2.1 LookingBeyondtheSpaceSegmentDownstream
Value-AddedChain:TheUserPerspective. . . . . . . . 176
6.2.2 ServingUserCommunitiesBetter:Horizontal
IntegrationattheLeveloftheOffer. . . . . . . . . . . . . 179
6.3 TheBigDataandInterconnectivityGordianNode. . . . . . . . . 182
6.3.1 Volume,VelocityandVariety:SatelliteDataIsBig
Data. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 182
6.3.2 DatatotheUserorUsertotheData?. . . . . . . . . . . . 184
6.3.3 FromBigDatatoConnectedDataandIoT. . . . . . . . 185
6.4 PublicAuthorities:MainUsersofSatelliteApplications?. . . . 186