world meteorological organization - The World AgroMeteorological

102 Pages·2005·1.02 MB·English

by  Stefanski R

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION

COMMISSION FOR AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY

CAgM Report No. 94

CONTRIBUTIONS FROM MEMBERS ON
OPERATIONAL APPLICATIONS IN AGROMETEOROLOGY
AND FROM DISCUSSANTS OF THE PAPERS
PRESENTED AT THE INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP:
“REDUCING VULNERABILITY OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY
TO CLIMATE VARIABLITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE”

WMO/TD No. 1213

Geneva, Switzerland
August 2004
“This report has been produced without editorial revision by the WMO Secretariat. It is not an
official publication and its distribution in this form does not imply endorsement by the organization
of the ideas expressed.”

ii
WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION

COMMISSION FOR AGRICULTURAL METEOROLOGY

CAgM Report No. 94

CONTRIBUTIONS FROM MEMBERS ON
OPERATIONAL APPLICATIONS IN AGROMETEOROLOGY
AND FROM DISCUSSANTS OF THE PAPERS
PRESENTED AT THE INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP:
“REDUCING VULNERABILITY OF AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY TO
CLIMATE VARIABLITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE”

WMO/TD No. 1213

Geneva, Switzerland
August 2004

iii

CONTENTS

Introduction ................................................................................................................................1

SECTION 1: CONTRIBUTIONS FROM MEMBERS ON OPERATIONAL
APPLICATIONS IN AGROMETEOROLOGY

Abdalla, H. Contributions to the Impacts of Present and Future Climate
Variability on Agriculture and Forestry in the Arid and Semi-Arid
Tropics.......................................................................................................3

Abdullaev, A. & On Agrometeorological Servicing of the Agricutlure in Uzbekistan
L. Grom in the Beginning of XXI Century................................................................5

Abdullaev, A. About the Future Possible Climate Changes and Proposals on
the Adaptation strategy of the Cotton Growing on the Territory
of Uzbekistan.............................................................................................6

Alexandrov, V. Climate Variation and Crop Production in Georgia, USA, During
the Twentieth Century...............................................................................8

Bockari, A. Impact of Present and Future Cliamte Variability on Agricutlure
and Forestry in Sub-humid and Humid Tropics........................................10

Carvajal, M. Operational Aspects of Agrometeorology.................................................12

Chinese Meteo- The Current Status of Climate Operations in National Climate
rological Admin. ServiceCenter...........................................................................................15

Dobesberger, E. Climate Based Modeling of Pest Establishment and Survival in
et. al Support of Pest Risk Assessment............................................................16

El-Rhman, A. D. &
M. A. El-Rafy River Nile Floods and Droughts in Relation to Jet Streams and
SSTs..........................................................................................................19

Gualterio, H. Effects of Climate Variability and Global Climate Change in Chile..........19

Hyera, T. M. Examples of Adaptation Strategies for Climate Variability and
Climate Change in Tanzania.....................................................................21

Kifle, B. Urban Heat Island Features in the Horn of Africa City of Central
Ethiopia......................................................................................................22

Komuscu, A. U. Climatic Variability in Turkey in Relation to Air Pressure Systems
and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)........................................................23

Komuscu, A. U. &
A. Erkan Implications of Climate Change for Soil-Water Availability in the
South Eastern Anatolia Project (GAP) Region.........................................27

Korecha, D. Why Does Climate Conflict with Agricultural Activities in Ethiopia?.........32
Kozhakhmetov,
P. & E. Antipova Information on Experience of Kazhydromet on Reducing of
Vulnerability of Crops and Forecasting of Climate Changes...................33

Kozyra, J. Climatic Conditions for Millet Cultivation in Poland..................................34

MIMH, Mongolia Climate Change Impacts on Animal Husbandry in Mongolia...................36

Prokopenko, A.
et al Effect of Climate Change on Food Production in Ukraine........................39

Tourmanidze, T. Estimation of Vulnerability of Agriculture to the Climate
Variability and Climate Change in Georgia...............................................39

Vento, D. CLIMAGRI: A Research Project of the Italian Ministry of
Agriculture on the Influence of Climate Change on Agriculture...............43

Zhao, Y. Examples in Operational Aspects of Agrometeorology
on Climate Variability and Climate Change..............................................44

Zorba, P. Agrometeorological Information Used in Agriculture
and Forestry Economy in Albania.............................................................45

SECTION 2: CONTRIBUTIONS FROM DISCUSSANTS OF THE PAPERS PRESENTED AT
THE INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP: “REDUCING VULNERABILITY OF
AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY TO CLIMATE VARIABLITY AND CLIMATE
CHANGE”

Overview – Climate Variability and Climate Change: Past, Present and Future

Bandara, K. R. A. The Expected Effects of Climate Change on Agriculture ........................50

Seng, T. L. Discussion by Tan Lee Seng-Malaysian Met. Service..............................51

Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability on Agriculture and Forestry in the
Sub-Humid and Humid Tropics

Kashasha, D. Discussion by Deusdedit Kashasha – Tanzania Met. Agency.................52

Van Viet, N. Climate Change and Variability in Viet Nam and
Strategies of Sustainable Development on Agriculture............................52

Wigmore, W. Discussion by William Wigmore, Ministry of Agriculture...........................66

Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability on Agriculture and Forestry in the
Temperate Regions: Europe

Susnik, A. Vulnerability Assessment of Slovenian Agriculture to Climate
Variability and Potential Impacts of Climate Change................................68

ii
Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability on Agriculture and Forestry in the
Temperate Regions: North America

Guerreiro, R. Climate Variability in Mainland Portugal Impacts on Agriculture..............69

Assessing the Consequences of Climate Change for Food and Forest Resources:
View from the IPCC

Pintar, M. Climate Change: A Field Scale Study......................................................69

Azzaya, D. Climate Change Impacts on Pasture and Animal Husbandry
in Mongolia ................................................................................................70

Achieving Adequate Adaptation in Agriculture

Banovec, P. Development of Registry of Irrigation and Drainage Schemes
in Slovenia ................................................................................................71

Seng, T. L. Malaysian Strategies for Adaptation ........................................................71

Popova, Z. Case Study of Bulgaria..............................................................................72

The Development of Seasonal and Inter-annual Climate Forecasting

Van Viet, N. Using ENSO Forecasts for Anticipating Potencial Impacts on
Agricultural Sector in the Socialist Republic of Viet Nam.........................73

Seasonal and Inter-annual Climate Forecasting: The New Tool for Increasing
Preparedness to Climate Variability and Change in Agricultural Planning and Operations

Porteous, A. Discussion by Alan Porteous, NIWA.........................................................84

Climate, Communications and Innovative Technologies: Potential Impacts and
Sustainability of New Radio and Internet Linkages in Rural African Communities

Maiga, D. Discussion of Djibrilla Maiga, National Directorate of Met........................85

Using Traditional Methods and Indigenous Technologies for Coping with Climate
Variability

Das, H. P. Potential of Water Harvesting in Semi-Arid and Arid Zones by
Tradicional Methods with Particular Reference to India...........................86

Regmi, R. K. Discussion by Ramesh Regmi, Dept. of Hydrology & Met.......................88

Management Strategies with Particular Emphasis on Carbon Sequestration to Mitigate
Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Agroecosystems

Das, H. P. Management Strategies on Carbon Sequestration from Agro-................88
Ecosystem with Particular Reference to India
iii
Role of Education and Training in Agricultural Meteorology to Reduce Vulnerability
to Climate Variability

Lee, B-L. Discussion by Byong-Lyol Lee, Korea Met. Administration......................91

Agrometeorological Research and Applications Needed to Prepare Agriculture and Forestry
Adapt to the 21st Century Climate Change

Zhao, Y. Discussion by Yanxia Zhao, Chinese Met. Administration.......................92

Kajfez-Bogataj, L. Agrometeorological Research and Mountain Agriculture in the
21st Century................................................................................................92

Shami, S. Discussion by Saifullah Shami, Pakistan..................................................95

iv
INTRODUCTION

This volume is published as a companion publication to the Special Isssue of Climatic
Change (2004) edited by Drs M. J. Sallinger, M. V. K. Sivakumar and R. M. Motha based on the
papers presented at the International Workshop on “Reducing Vulnerability of Agriculture and
Forestry to Climate Variability and Climate Change”, held in Ljublijana, Slovenia, from 7 to 9
October 2002.

The organizers had distributed drafts of the papers to be presented at the workshop by
invited authors well in advance to all the CAgM members. Simultaneously, we had requested
contributions from the CAgM members on operational applications in agrometeorology, related to
the subjects of the papers. Later we had also invited several members and non-members of
CAgM to be discussants for these papers.

These contributions from CAgM members on operational applications in agrometeorology
and discussants complement the Special Issue of Climatic Change published this year. It was
felt that this process increased the participation and enhanced the discussion on the workshop
issues by as many members of CAgM as possible.
1
SECTION 1

CONTRIBUTIONS FROM MEMBERS ON OPERATIONAL
APPLICATIONS IN AGROMETEOROLOGY

2