World Forests from Deforestation to Transition? PDF
Preview World Forests from Deforestation to Transition?
World Forests from Deforestation to Transition? Editedby Matti Palo and HeidiVanhanen ~ " World ForestsVolume II KLUWERACADEMIC PUBLISHERS DORDRECHT/LONDON/BOSTON • • • Library ofcongress Cataloging-in-Publication Data • • ISBN 0-7923-6683-2 ISSN 0785-8388 Published byKluwerAcademicPublishers. P.O.Box17.3300AADordrecht.The Netherlands. Soldanddistributed inNorth. Central andSouthAmerica byKluwerAcademicPublishers. 101 Philip Drive,Norwell,MA02061.U.S.A. Inall othercountries. soldanddistributed byKluwerAcademicPublishers. P.O.Box322.3300AHDordrecht,The Netherlands. Printedonacid-free paper All Rights Reserved © 2000 KluwerAcademicPublishers No part ofthe materialprotected bythiscopyright notice may bereproduced or utilized inanyformor by anymeans,electronicor mechanical,including photo copying, recording or byanyinformationstrorage and retrievalsystem,withoutpermissionfromthe copyrightowner. II PrintedinFinland World Forests book series Kluwer Academic Publishers Scientific editors Matti Palo andJussi Uusivuori Finnish Forest ResearchInstitute. Helsinki.Finland Editorial Advisory Board Mr.PhilipWardle.Chair,United Kingdom Aims and Scope The book series WorldForestsisintended The volumes to be published in the se for a wide range of readers as follows: ries will be both multidisciplined with a national and international bodies that are broadrange ofcoverage andmorefocused concernedwithforestandrelatedpolicyis in-depth analyses of a particular field in sues,theacademia- students,teachers and forest sciences. Globalization processes researchers - as well as business profes and comparative analyses of regions and sionals, non-governmental organizations, countries areamongthemestobecovered. the media and interested citizens world The volumes maybebased oninvited ma wide.The purpose of the series is to pub terial or they may result from symposia, lish research-based reviews of globally conferences, or workshops. International III relevant issueswithinworldforests,socie scientificstandardswillbefollowed.There ty and environment from an independent fore, for example, all published material andnon-governmental point of view. willgothrough apeer-reviewprocess. WORLDFORESTS FROM DEFORESTATIONTOTRANSITION? Preface This book reports one part of the findings tive,duetovestednational andinternation of the research project The Forests in the al interests. South and North - Transitionfrom Defor This book presentsasetofnewresearch estation to Sustainable Forest Policies in findingsemergingfromourcomprehensive Redressing Global Warming. The project research project. The book can be regard was coordinated and partly funded by the edasafollow-up toandelaborationofour WorldInstituteforDevelopmentEconom previous research published in 1996 by ics Research of the United Nations Kluwer AcademicPublishers,Sustainable University (UNUIWIDER). The Finnish ForestryChallengesforDevelopingCoun ForestResearchInstitute (METLA) andthe tries, edited by Matti Palo and Gerardo Institute for Applied Economic Research Mery. (IPEAIDIPES) in Brazil were among the To facilitate coordination, interaction elevenimplementinginstitutesthatcontrib and exchange of information the project uted financially to the research. Director organized three workshops between 1994 EustaquioJ.Reis from IPEA served asthe and1996.Thefirstandlastworkshops were External Project Coordinatorin RiodeJa held in Finland and the second one in In neiro while I acted as the External Project donesia, incooperationwiththeCenterfor Directorin Helsinki. International ForestResearch (CIFOR). The policy-focused summary of the The manuscriptwasevaluatedbyanon project's results was published by UNU/ ymous referees in 1997-1998, and the WIDERin 1998asPolicyBriefNo 1,For Englishlanguagechecking,editingandlay ests in Global Warming, edited by Patrick outwerecompletedin 1999-2000.During Humphreys and Matti Palo. Another part theimplementationoftheprojectthetheme ofthefindings waspublishedinJune 2000 ofthisbookhasattainedevergreater prom by UNUIWIDER as World Development inence on the global political agenda via Studies 15,Global Scenariosand Policies the Intergovernmental Panel on Forests onForest Transitionsand Carbon Fluxes, (IPF),theIntergovernmentalForestForum edited by Matti Palo. (IFF), and the global conventions on Bio Thetitleofthisbook,WorldForestsfrom diversityandClimateChange.Wehopethat DeforestationtoTransitioni,carriesaques thisvolume,foritspart,willofferconstruc tion mark. It indicates that it may be diffi tive inputs to the global quest for forest cult to give a final answer to this most transition. pressing global issue. Although there are clear signs of transition in parts of the Helsinki,June 2000 North, deforestationintheSouth iscontin v uing unabated despite numerous global political efforts to control it. The problem Matti Palo is multisectoral and multilevel and there Professor fore extremelycomplex- also very sensi- ProjectDirector WORLD FORESTS FROM DEFORESTATIONTOTRANSITION? • • • • • Acknowledgments Professor Mihaly Simai, former Director, Aboveall,weareindebted tothe 14au and Dr. Reino Hjerppe, former Principal thors who were so committed to thisjoint Academic Officer of UNUIWIDER, initi worldwide research effort. Coming from atedthisresearchproject.Dr.JeffreySayer, nine countries on fivecontinents,the con DirectorGeneral,and Dr.Neil Byron,As tributors helped to maintain the project's sistant Director General of CIFOR, global, semi-global, continental and case co-financed and co-organized our second study dimensions. The cultural and geo workshop in Indonesia in 1996. graphical diversity was our strength in Ms.BarbaraFagermanofUNUIWIDER tackling this most topical challenge in in andMs.Margit Kuronen ofMETLA were ternational forest policies. in charge of financial administration and Weareverysadtoannouncethatoneof secretarial services. Dr. Ashley Selby our colleagues,Dr.BeniNasendi from In checked the English language.Mr.Aleksi donesia, passed away during the project. Lehtonen assistedinthefinalization ofthe Welearned toknow Dr.Nasendi asacom figures. Ms. Maija Heino and Ms. Essi petent foresteconomist and agood friend, Puranendidthelayout. and will misshisjoviality. Wewould like to express our gratitude to all the above for their excellentcooper Helsinki,May 2000 ation and professionalism. We are also thankful to the two anonymous referees Matti Palo Heidi Vanhanen who evaluated the manuscript. Editor Editor VI Note to the reader Unit Description: the metric system isused inthis publication. = tonne I000 kg = = ha hectare (I00 ha one krrr') Abbreviations: = a annum = km kilometre(s) = kg kilogram(s) = mill. million (106 ) = bill. billion (109 ) Currency: most prices and values are convertedtotheUnited Statesdollars (USD). Standard currency nomenclature isused for VII definingothercurrencies,when used. Names of countries are based on FAO's classification. WORLD FORESTS FROM DEFORESTATIONTOTRANSITION? • • • Contents • • PART I Global Overview and Policies Global Prospects on Deforestation and ForestTransition 3 by MattiPalo I Introduction 3 1.1World Forests Context 3 1.2 Purpose ofThisVolume 5 2 Overview of the Book 6 2.I ForestTransition Prospects 6 2.2 Causes of Pantropical Deforestation 8 2.3 Deforestation in Braziland Indonesia 9 2.4 Deforestation inAfrica 10 3 Policy Proposals II 3.1 Deforestation Control II 3.2Towards ForestTransition 15 PART II ForestTransition South-North Challenges in Global Forestry 25 byAlexander Mather IATime ofTransition? 25 2 Management Transitions 26 3 Forest-AreaTransitions 26 4A Changing Forest Paradigm? 27 5 Global Integration:A Global Forest-Resource System 28 5.1 Internationalization of Production 30 5.2 InternationalizingTrends:Supply 31 5.3 InternationalizingTrends:Demand 33 5.4A StrengtheningTrend? 33 6 Challenges 35 Deforestation and ForestTransition:Theory and Evidence in China....41 byYaoqi Zhang I Introduction 41 2 Framework of Deforestation and ForestTransition 42 2.1 Land Use for Agriculture versus Forestry 42 2.2 Management of Forest Land 43 2.3 Causes for Shifts in Land Use and Management 47 3 History of Deforestation Process 49 3.1 Loess Plateau and Guangzhong Region 49 3.2 North China 50 3.3 South and Southeast China 51 3.4 Southwest and Northeast China 52 3.5 General Pattern of Deforestation 53 VIII 4 From Deforestation to ForestTransition 54 5 Prospects for the Future 60 6 Concluding Policy Implications 62 From Deforestation to Reforestation in New England, United States 67 ByAlexanderS.P.Pfaff I Introduction 67 2 Historical Background 69 3Theoretical Frame 70 3.1 Optimal Land Use, Comparative Advantage and Reforestation 70 3.2Timber:Extractive Output, Productive Land Use, and Scarce Resources 71 3.3 Features of Manufacturingand Locational Decisions 72 3.4"Forest Kuznets Curve"? 72 4 Empirical Evidence and Implications 73 4.1 Data 73 4.2 Empirical Evidence 74 4.3 Multiple Land-Use Drivers 74 4.4 From Advantage and Agglomeration 77 5 Discussion 78 Forest Plantations in the South: Environmental-Economic Evaluation 83 byAnssi Niskanen I Forest Plantations in theTropical South 84 2 Economic Rationale of Forest Plantations 84 3 Environmental-EconomicValuation 86 4 Case study: Acacia Plantations inthe Philippines 88 4.1 Financialand Economic Profitability Analyses 88 4.2 Environmental-Economic Profitability 90 4.3 Sensitivity Analyses 93 5 Discussion 94 PART III Underlying Causes of Deforestation Modeling Causes of Deforestation with 477 Subnational Units 101 byMattiPalo, ErkkiLehto andJussiUusivuori I Introduction 101 2 Model and Data 04 2.1. Model Specification 04 2.2 Empirical Data 06 2.3 Variables 07 3 Results of Basic Modeling I 3.1 Description of Models I 3.2 Population Effects 3 3.3 Income Effects 4 3.4 Reliability ofAvailable Data................................................................................. 5 3.5 Ecological Zones 5 3.6 Continental and ScalingVariables 5 4 Results of Basic Modeling Extensions 6 4.1 Ranking of Causal Factors I 6 4.2 Change Variable Modeling I 8 5 Discussion I 9 IX 5.1 Key Findings I 9 5.2Validityand Reliabilityof the Results 120 5.3 Comparison with Earlier Findings 122 WORLD FORESTSFROM DEFORESTATIONTOTRANSITION? • • Demographic and Ecological Factors • • in FAOTropical Deforestation Modelling 125 • byRoberto Scotti I Background 25 2 Modeling Deforestation 26 2.1 Problem Formulation 26 2.2The FORISdatabase 27 3 ModelingApproach in FRA1990 30 3.1 Development History 31 3.2 Population 32 3.3 Ecology 32 3.4 Framework for theAnalysis 33 4 Data and Methods 33 5 Results 35 6 Discussion 36 7 Conclusions 38 Causes of Brazilian Amazon Deforestation 143 byEust6quio j.Reis andFernandoA. Blanco 1 Introduction 143 2The Modernization ofAgriculture 144 2.1 Fiscal and Credit Policies inAgriculture 146 2.2Agricultural Research 147 2.3 Quantifying the Impact of Policies on Demand for Land 147 3 Regional Development Policies 149 3.1Accessibility and Roads 149 3.2 Fiscal and Credit Incentives 50 3.3 Colonization Programs :.......................................................................... 51 3.4 Growth Poles 52 3.5The Rise of Environmental Concern 53 3.6 Quantifyingthe Effectsof Regional Policies 54 4The Sources and Actors of Deforestation 55 4.1AgropastoralActivities 55 4.2 Squatters 57 4.3 Cattle Ranches 59 4.4 Logging 61 4.5 Infrastructure Construction 62 5 Conclusions 63 Deforestation and Forest Policies in Indonesia 167 byB.D.Nasendi I Introduction 167 2 Forest Policies 168 2.1 Forestry Legislation 168 2.2 Forestry in National Development 170 2.3 Forest Management 171 3 Dimensions of Deforestation 173 X 4 Forestry Sector Modeling 176 4.1The Deforestation Model 176 4.2 Future Scenarios 178 5 Discussion 180 Deforestation and Agricultural Expansion in Mhonda area,Tanzania 183 byGerald C. Monela andBirger Solberg I Introduction 83 2 Methodology 84 2.1StudySiteand Data Collection 84 2.2 Modeland MainAssumptions 85 3 BaseModel ResultsCompared to Real Life Behaviour 86 4 Resultsof Sensitivity Model Analysis 88 4.1Changes of PopulationGrowth 88 4.2 Impactof ChangesofWorking CapitalAvailability 89 4.3 ImpactofAgricultural Crop PriceChanges 90 4.4 Impactof Increased FertilizerPrices 90 4.5 Impactof Changes inRiskAversion 91 5 Discussion 92 Socio-Cultural History of Deforestation inAfrica 195 byAri Siirioinen I Introduction 195 1.1 Socio-History ofAfrican Deforestation 196 2 PopulationPressure 197 2.1 Ecology and Fertility 198 2.2The DemographicTransitionTheory 199 2.3WhatAffects Fertility Rates? 199 3 History of Land Use 202 3.1 StageOne: Climatic Change 203 3.2 StageTwo:IncipientCultivation 203 3.3 StageThree:Towards Intensive Resource Utilization 204 3.4StageFour:Mixed Farming and IncreasingPopulation 205 4 Discussion 206 Contributors 210 Index 212 XI WORLD FORESTS FROM DEFORESTATIONTOTRANSITION!
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