World Energy Outlook. 2018

661 Pages·2018·20.361 MB·English

by  International Energy Agency

World
Energy
Outlook
2018
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
The IEA examines the full spectrum of energy issues including oil, gas and coal supply
and demand, renewable energy technologies, electricity markets, energy efficiency, access
to energy, demand side management and much more. Through its work, the IEA advocates
policies that will enhance the reliability, affordability and sustainability of energy in its
30 member countries, 8 association countries and beyond.
The four main areas of IEA focus are:
n E nergy Security: Promoting diversity, efficiency, flexibility and reliability for all fuels
and energy sources;
n Economic Development: Supporting free markets to foster economic growth and
eliminate energy poverty;
n Environmental Awareness: Analysing policy options to offset the impact of
energy production and use on the environment, especially for tackling
climate change and air pollution; and
n Engagement Worldwide: Working closely with association
and partner countries, especially major emerging
economies, to find solutions to shared
IEA member countries:
energy and environmental
Australia
concerns.
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Secure
Greece
Sustainable
Hungary
Together
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea
Luxembourg
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
© OECD/IEA, 2018 Slovak Republic
International Energy Agency Spain
Website: www.iea.org Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
United Kingdom
Please note that this publication United States
is subject to specific restrictions
that limit its use and distribution. The European Commission
The terms and conditions are also participates in
available online at www.iea.org/t&c/ the work of the IEA.
Foreword
The World Energy Outlook (WEO) provides a unique reference for the international debate
on energy. It also plays an essential guiding role for the International Energy Agency’s own
strategic thinking, underpinning the Agency’s role as the global energy authority.
The WEO-2018 reminds us of the fundamental shift that is taking place in the geography
of global energy demand towards developing economies. That is why, as one of the three
pillars of the Agency’s modernisation strategy, I have put such emphasis on “opening the
doors” of the IEA to key energy players from around the world. With the support of our
member countries, we have welcomed Mexico as a new member of the Agency and are
building very close institutional ties with new Associate members: Brazil, China, India,
Indonesia, Morocco, Singapore, South Africa and Thailand.
The special focus on electricity in this year’s Outlook demonstrates not only the huge
opportunities that arise with the transformation of the global power sector, but also some
potential risks. The second pillar of our strategy at the IEA is to reinforce and reappraise our
approaches to energy security: alongside work on oil and natural gas, electricity security is
becoming a major focus for IEA analysis and engagement.
This new edition also underscores that the world is still a long way from meeting its
environmental objectives, both in terms of climate and air quality. That is why the third
pillar of our modernisation strategy is to transform the Agency into a global hub for
co-operation on clean energy technologies and energy efficiency. Our new Clean Energy
Transitions Programme is a clear signal of this ambition: a multi-year initiative to accelerate
deployment of clean energy technologies, particularly in major developing economies.
Most importantly, the WEO underlines once again that policies matter. We should not
underestimate the effort required to get to the outcomes described in our main scenario,
the New Policies Scenario, which holds up a mirror to the ambitions of policy makers around
the world, as they exist today. But nor should we underestimate the need and the potential
to improve on these outcomes and to deliver a more secure, affordable, and sustainable
energy future. The key message from this WEO is that decisions made by governments will
play a critical role in this respect, and the IEA stands ready and willing to provide its support
for these endeavours.
I would like to applaud the excellent work of the WEO team led by Laura Cozzi – who
has taken on the role of the IEA’s Chief Energy Modeller – and Tim Gould. I also take this
opportunity to thank the many friends and colleagues from around the world that provided
valuable comments and expertise during the preparation of the new Outlook.
Dr. Fatih Birol
8 Executive Director
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Acknowledgements
This study was prepared by the World Energy Outlook (WEO) team in the Directorate of
Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks (STO) in co-operation with other directorates
and offices of the International Energy Agency. The study was designed and directed by
Laura Cozzi, Chief Energy Modeller and Head of Division for Energy Demand Outlook, and
Tim Gould, Head of Division for Energy Supply and Investment Outlook.
Timur Gül led the environment and demand modelling, and contributed to the electricity
focus. The special focus on electricity was co-ordinated by Brent Wanner, lead on power
sector modelling and analysis, and Stéphanie Bouckaert, lead on end-use modelling and
analysis. Christophe McGlade led the work on the emissions intensity of oil and gas supply
and the oil analysis. Paweł Olejarnik co-ordinated the oil, natural gas and coal supply
modelling. Key contributions from across the WEO team were from: Zakia Adam (lead on
data management, contributed to fossil fuel subsidies), Ali Al-Saffar (lead on producer
economies), Yasmine Arsalane (lead on the European Union (EU) Energy Union analysis,
power sector modelling), David Attlmayr (demand-side response analysis), Adam Baylin-
Stern (industry, contributed to electricity focus), Michela Cappannelli (oil, gas, bioenergy),
Jean Chateau (producer economies), Olivia Chen (energy access and environment, buildings),
Arthur Contejean (energy access), Hannah Daly (lead on energy access), Davide D’Ambrosio
(power sector modelling and data management, contributed to electricity focus), Valeria
Di Cosmo (electricity focus), Valentina Ferlito (lead on renewables support, contributed to
electricity focus), Karthik Ganesan (India analysis in the electricity focus), Timothy Goodson
(co-lead on buildings demand, demand-side response and contributed to electricity focus),
Asbjørn Zachariassen Hegelund (industry, contributed to electricity focus), Paul Hugues
(lead on transport, contributed to energy efficiency and renewables), Tae-Yoon Kim (lead
on petrochemicals, oil refining and trade, contributed to gas), Aaron Koh (electricity focus,
renewables support), Zeynep Kurban (hydrogen), Raimund Malischek (coal, gas), Wataru
Matsumura (producer economies, electricity focus), Kieran McNamara (electricity focus
and contributed to renewables and efficiency chapter), Claudia Pavarini (lead on storage,
power sector modelling), Apostolos Petropoulos (transport, contributed to electricity focus),
Andrew Prag (lead on the Sustainable Development Scenario chapter, contributed to electricity
focus), Diana Alejandra Rodriguez Barrera (producer economies, oil), Andreas Schröder
(industry), Toshiyuki Shirai (producer economies, fossil fuel subsidies), Glenn Sondak (oil,
gas), Molly A. Walton (lead on energy-water nexus), Kira West (industry), David Wilkinson
(power sector hourly modelling, electricity focus) and Peter Zeniewski (lead on natural gas).
Teresa Coon, Eleni Tsoukala and Marina Dos Santos provided essential support.
Edmund Hosker carried editorial responsibility. Debra Justus was the copy-editor.
The special focus on electricity was developed by a cross-agency Electricity Focus Working
Group drawn from all relevant directorates and offices of the IEA, in addition to the WEO
8 team. Luis Munuera from the Energy Technology Policy (ETP) Division led the analysis
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Peter Levi and Tiffany Vass contributed to the analysis on industry; John Dulac and
Thibaut Abergel contributed to the analysis on buildings; Jacob Teter and Marine Gorner
contributed to the analysis on transport; and Uwe Remme contributed to the analyses
on energy storage and hydrogen. George Kamiya from the Energy Environment Division
contributed to the analysis on buildings, transport and digitalization. Kevin Lane, Joe Ritchie
and Sacha Scheffer from the Energy Efficiency Division contributed to the analysis on energy
efficiency. Heymi Bahar from the Renewable Energy Division contributed to the analyses
on distributed generation and affordability of electricity. From the System Integration of
Renewables Unit, Simon Mueller and Peerapat Vithayasrichareon contributed to the
analyses on renewables integration and flexibility; and Zoe Hungerford, Enrique Gutierrez
and Craig Hart contributed to the analyses on India, renewables integration and
flexibility. Yugo Tanaka from the Office of Global Energy Relations contributed to the India
analysis. Cesar Alejandro Hernandez from the Gas, Coal and Power Markets Division,
Michael Waldron and Alberto Toril from the Economics and Investment Office contributed
to the analysis on investment, markets and security.
Mechthild Wörsdörfer, Director of STO, and David Turk, Acting Director of STO, provided
valuable guidance at different stages of the work. Valuable comments and feedback
were provided by senior management and numerous other colleagues within the IEA. In
particular, Paul Simons, Keisuke Sadamori, Amos Bromhead, Rebecca Gaghen, Duncan
Millard, Laszlo Varro, Neil Atkinson, Peter Fraser, Paolo Frankl, Brian Motherway, Aad Van
Bohemen, Aya Yoshida, Christian Zinglersen, Simon Bennett, Niels Berghout, Thomas Berly,
Alessandro Blasi, Toril Bosoni, Jean-Baptiste Dubreuil, Carlos Fernández Alvarez, Kathleen
Gaffney, Peter Janoska, Caroline Lee, Juho Lipponen, Armin Mayer, Samantha McCulloch,
Sara Moarif, Bruce Murphy, Yoko Nobuoko, Kristine Petrosyan, Cedric Philibert, Roberta
Quadrelli, Céline Rouquette, Melanie Slade, Tristan Stanley, Jeremy Sung, Cecilia Tam, and
Matthew Wittenstein. The Energy Data Centre provided support and assistance throughout
the preparation of the report.
Thanks go to the IEA’s Communication and Information Office for their help in producing
the final report and website materials, particularly to Astrid Dumond, Christopher Gully,
Jad Mouwad, Bertrand Sadin and Rob Stone. Diana Browne provided essential support to
the peer review process.
Valuable input to the analysis was provided by: Markus Amman, Peter Rafaj, Janusz
Cofala, Gregor Kiesewetter, Wolfgang Schöpp, Chris Heyes, Zbigniew Klimont, Jens Borken-
Kleefeld, Pallav Purohit and Adriana Gómez-Sanabria (International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis); Colin Ward (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center);
Stephen J. Lee, Ignacio Pérez-Arriaga, Eduardo Sánchez, Andrés González and Pedro Ciller
(MIT-Comillas Universal Energy Access Lab); Faisal Wahid and Christopher Andrey (Artelys);
David Mooney and Anthony Lopez (National Renewable Energy Laboratory); Eric Masanet
(Northwestern University); and Per Magnus Nysveen (Rystad Energy).
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Council on Energy, Environment and Water, India; Enel; Energy Market Authority,
Singapore; Eni; European Commission and European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and
innovation programme funding under grant agreement No 811148; Iberdrola; Imperial
College London, United Kingdom; King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center,
Saudi Arabia; Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan; Ministry of Economic Affairs
and Climate Policy, Netherlands; The Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the
Earth, Japan; Schneider Electric; Shell and Toshiba. Activities within the IEA Clean Energy
Transitions Programme provided valuable support to this analysis.
Thanks also go to the IEA Energy Business Council, IEA Coal Industry Advisory Board, IEA
Energy Efficiency Industry Advisory Board and the IEA Renewable Industry Advisory Board.
A number of events were organised to provide input to this study. The participants offered
valuable new insights, feedback and data for this analysis.
 High-level workshop on Electricity, Paris, 24 April 2018
 High-level roundtable meeting on Producer Economies, Paris, 26 April 2018
Further details on these events are at www.iea.org/workshops.
Peer reviewers
Many senior government officials and international experts provided input and reviewed
preliminary drafts of the report. Their comments and suggestions were of great value. They
include:
Amani Abou-Zeid African Union Commission
Khaled Abu-Ismail UN ESCWA
Tony Addison UNU-WIDER
Sarah Anyang Agbor African Union Commission
Keigo Akimoto The Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the
Earth, Japan
Majid Al-Moneef Supreme Economic Council of Saudi Arabia
Hatem Al-Shanfari Sultan Qaboos University
An Qi Energy Research Institute
Venkatachalam Anbumozhi Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Paul Appleby BP
Marco Arcelli EPH
Gigih Atmo Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre (APERC)
Peter Bach Danish Energy Agency
Rangan Banerjee Indian institute of Technology, Bombay
Marco Baroni Independent consultant
Thiago Barral Energy Research Office (EPE), Brazil
Luiz Augusto Barroso Comillas Pontifical University's Institute for Research in
Technology
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Igor Bashmakov Center for Energy Efficiency (CENEf)
Tom Bastin Department for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy,
United Kingdom
Diana Bauer Department of Energy, United States
Elie Bellevrat TOTAL
Kamel Ben Naceur ADNOC Group
Christian Besson Independent consultant
Garrett Blaney Agency for the Co-operation of Energy Regulators (ACER)
Peter Birch Sørensen University of Copenhagen, Denmark
Paul Bjacek Accenture
Kornelis Blok Delft University of Technology
Rina Bohla Zeller Vestas
Teun Bokhoven Consolair
Clare Boland Ross The Rockefeller Foundation
Jason Bordoff Columbia University, United States
Nils Borg European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ECEEE)
Chrissy Borskey GE Power
Stephen Bowers Evonik Industries AG
Mark Brownstein Environmental Defense Fund, United States
David Buckrell Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment,
New Zealand
Mick Buffier Glencore
Barbara J. Burger Chevron
Nick Butler Independent consultant
Tim Callen International Monetary Fund
Guy Caruso Center for Strategic and International Studies, United States
Drew Clarke Australian Energy Market Operator
Rebecca Collyer European Climate Foundation
Emanuela Colombo Politecnico di Milano, Italy
Erwin Cornelis Tractebel - Engie
Joel Couse Total SA
Ian Cronshaw Independent consultant
Gumersindo Cué Secretariat of Energy, Mexico
Noel Cunniffe EirGrid, Ireland
Spencer Dale BP
Ziad Daoud Bloomberg
Francois Dassa EDF
Jelte De Jong Ministry of Economic Affairs Bezuidenhoutseweg
Marc Debever EDF
Hem Dholakia Council On Energy, Environment And Water (CEEW)
Ralf Dickel Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, United Kingdom
Bo Diczfalusy Nordic Energy Research
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Dan Dorner Department for Business Energy and Industrial Strategy,
United Kingdom
Loic Douillet GE Power
Gina Downes Eskom
Kenneth Dubin Energy Information Administration, United States
Michael Eckhart Citigroup
Vladimir Feigin Institute for Energy and Finance (FIEF)
Francesco Ferioli DG Energy - European Commission
Nikki Fisher Anglo American
Vivien Foster World Bank
Nathan Frisbee Schlumberger
Fu Sha National Center for Climate Change Strategy and
International Cooperation
Mike Fulwood Nexant
David G. Hawkins Natural Resources Defense Council, United States
Ashwin Gambhir Prayas, Energy Group, India
Andrew Garnett University of Queensland, Australia
Carlos Gascó Travesedo Iberdrola
Francesco Gattei Eni
Ivetta Gerasimchuk IISD
Dolf Gielen International Renewable Energy Agency
David Goldwyn Atlantic Council, United States
Deborah Gordon Carnegie Oil Endowment
Andrii Gritsevskyi International Atomic Energy Agency
Rameshwar Gupta NITI Aayog
Brian Gutknecht GE Power
Mansoor Hamayun BBOXX
Awwad Harthi Ministry of Energy, Industry and Mineral Resources
Laury Haytayan Natural Resource Governance Institute
Harald Hecking EWI Energy Research and Scenarios
Jan Hein Jesse JOSCO Energy Finance and Strategy Consultancy
Colin Henderson Clean Coal Centre
James Henderson Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, United Kingdom
Doug Hengel German Marshall Fund of the United States
Laura Hersch Energy Information Administration, United States
Masazumi Hirono Tokyo Gas
Neil Hirst Imperial College London, United Kingdom
Takashi Hongo Mitsui Global Strategic Studies Institute, Japan
Didier Houssin IFP Energies Nouvelles, France
Tom Howes European Commission
Thad Huetteman Energy Information Administration, United States
Jun Inoue Japan Electric Power Information Center
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A, Li Jingfeng China Energy Investment Corporation Ltd. (China Energy)
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