World Energy Outlook 2011 - International Energy Agency

666 Pages·2011·7.45 MB·English

by  International Energy Agency

Please note that this PDF is subject to specific
restrictions that limit its use and distribution.
The terms and conditions are available online at
www.iea.org/Textbase/about/copyright.asp
2
WORLD
0
ENERGY
1
OUTLOOK
1
WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
2 0 1 1
World Energy Outlook 2011 brings together the latest data, policy developments,
and the experience of another year to provide robust analysis and insight
into global energy markets, today and for the next 25 years. This edition of
the IEA’s flagship WEO publication gives the latest energy demand and supply
projections for different future scenarios, broken down by country, fuel and
sector. It also gives special focus to such topical energy sector issues as:
„ Russia’s energy prospects and their implications for global markets.
„ The role of coal in driving economic growth in an emissions-constrained
world.
„ The implications of a possible delay in oil and gas sector investment
in the Middle East and North Africa.
„ How high-carbon infrastructure “lock-in” is making the 2°C climate
change goal more challenging and expensive to meet.
„ The scale of fossil fuel subsidies and support for renewable energy
and their impact on energy, economic and environmental trends.
„ A “Low Nuclear Case” to investigate what a rapid slowdown in the use
of nuclear power would mean for the global energy landscape.
„ The scale and type of investment needed to provide modern energy to
the billions of the world’s poor that do not have it.
www.worldenergyoutlook.org
€150 (61 2011 24 1P1)
ISBN: 978 92 64 12413 4
2
WORLD
0
ENERGY
1
OUTLOOK
1
INTERNATIONALENERGYAGENCY
TheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),anautonomousagency,wasestablishedinNovember1974.
Itsprimarymandatewas–andis–two-fold:topromoteenergysecurityamongstitsmember
countriesthroughcollectiveresponsetophysicaldisruptionsinoilsupply,andprovideauthoritative
researchandanalysisonwaystoensurereliable,affordableandcleanenergyforits28member
countriesandbeyond.TheIEAcarriesoutacomprehensiveprogrammeofenergyco-operationamong
itsmembercountries,eachofwhichisobligedtoholdoilstocksequivalentto90daysofitsnetimports.
TheAgency’saimsincludethefollowingobjectives:
! Securemembercountries’accesstoreliableandamplesuppliesofallformsofenergy;inparticular,
through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions.
! Promotesustainableenergypoliciesthatspureconomicgrowthandenvironmentalprotection
inaglobalcontext–particularlyintermsofreducinggreenhouse-gasemissionsthatcontribute
toclimatechange.
! Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of
energydata.
!Supportglobalcollaborationonenergytechnologytosecurefutureenergysupplies
and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy
efficiency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies.
! Findsolutionstoglobalenergychallengesthroughengagementand
dialoguewithnon-membercountries,industry,international
organisationsandotherstakeholders.
IEAmembercountries:
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
CzechRepublic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea(Republicof)
Luxembourg
Netherlands
NewZealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
©OECD/IEA,2011 SlovakRepublic
InternationalEnergyAgency Spain
9ruedelaFédération Sweden
75739ParisCedex15,France Switzerland
www.iea.org Turkey
UnitedKingdom
Pleasenotethatthispublication UnitedStates
issubjecttospecificrestrictions
thatlimititsuseanddistribution. TheEuropeanCommission
Thetermsandconditionsareavailable alsoparticipatesin
onlineatwww.iea.org/about/copyright.asp theworkoftheIEA.
FOREWORD
Itisthejobofgovernmentstotakethedecisionsthatwilldeliverasecureandsustainable
energyfuture.Theycanmakewisedecisionsonlyiftheyarewell-informedandadvised.
ThatisthejobofbodiessuchastheInternationalEnergyAgency(IEA),whichithasbeenmy
privilegetoleadsinceSeptember2011.
TheWorldEnergyOutlook(WEO)team,undertheAgency’sChiefEconomist,FatihBirol,
hasagaindoneanoutstandingjobinWEO-2011tounderpinsoundenergydecisionmaking.
WiththeinvaluablehelpofmanyglobalexpertsinsideandoutsidetheAgency,theteam
hasgivenusawealthofcurrentenergyinformation,analysisandperspectivesonthefuture.
Forexample,wefind:
! whatitwillcosttobringmodernenergytoeverycitizenoftheworldby2030andhow
tofinanceit;
! that,providedgovernmentshonourtheirexistingintentions,renewableenergyissetto
providehalfthenewpowergeneratingcapacityrequiredbetweennowand2035;
! that, by virtue of their size and distribution, natural gas resources contribute
encouragingly to future energy security, casting a golden glow over the outlook for
naturalgas;
! howoilmarketswillbeshapedbyincreasingdemandformobilityandrisingupstream
costs – and the consequences of any shortfall of investment in the Middle East and
NorthAfrica;
! whatwouldhavetobedone(andwhetherthatisrealistic)ifthenuclearcomponent
offutureenergysupplyweretobehalved,oriftheavailabilityofcarboncaptureand
storagetechnologyslippedbytenyears;
! theextentoftheoverwhelmingdominanceofChinainglobalenergyin25yearstimeand
theglobalsignificanceofthechoicesChinamakestomeetitsneeds;and
! howmuchenergyRussiacansavesimplybymatchingtheenergyefficiencystandards
ofOECDcountriesandhowthatwouldservebothRussia’snationalobjectivesandthe
interestsofglobalenergysupply.
As a former minister, my background is that of a politician. My mission at the IEA is to
bridgethedividebetweenanalystsandpoliticianssothattherightenergypolicydecisions
aremadebygovernmentsacrosstheworld,bothmembersandnon-membersoftheIEA
alike.TheAgencywillnotaspiretodeterminethosedecisionswhichlieoutsideitsareaof
executiveresponsibilityforitsmembers’energysecurity.ButIwillpushtheremittoidentify
1
1
0 thedecisionswhichothersneed,orwhichwouldbewise,toadopt.TheWEOisaninvaluable
2
EA, tooltothisend.
D/I
C
E
O
© Foreword 3
Thestarkestdecisionsarethosewhichmustbetakenwithoutdelay.Iendbyhighlighting
oneareasquarelyinthiscategory:theenergydecisionsnecessarytocontaintherisein
theaverageglobaltemperatureto2°Celsius.Wereadhereofthewaycarbonemissions
are already “locked-in” because of the nature of the plant and equipment which we
continuetobuild.Ifwedonotchangecourse,by2015over90%ofthepermissibleenergy
sectoremissionsto2035willalreadybelockedin.By2017,100%.Wecanstillactintime
topreserveaplausiblepathtoasustainableenergyfuture;buteachyearthenecessary
measuresgetprogressivelytougherandviciouslymoreexpensive.So,let’snotwaitany
longer!
MariavanderHoeven
ExecutiveDirector
This publication has been produced under the authority of the Executive Director of the
InternationalEnergyAgency.Theviewsexpresseddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsor
policiesofindividualIEAmembercountries
1
1
0
2
A,
E
D/I
C
E
O
© 4 WorldEnergyOutlook2011
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
ThisstudywaspreparedbytheOfficeoftheChiefEconomist(OCE)oftheInternational
Energy Agency in co-operation with other offices of the Agency. It was designed and
directedbyFatihBirol,ChiefEconomistoftheIEA.LauraCozzico-ordinatedtheanalysis
of climate policy and modelling; Amos Bromhead co-ordinated the analysis of subsidies
andnuclear;JohnCorbenco-ordinatedtheanalysisofoilandnaturalgas;MarcoBaroni
co-ordinatedthepower-generationanalysis;TimGouldco-ordinatedtheRussiaanalysis;
PawełOlejarnikco-ordinatedthecoalanalysis;DanDornercontributedtotheanalysisof
globaltrendsandco-ordinatedthefocusonenergyaccess.OthercolleaguesintheOfficeof
theChiefEconomistcontributedtomultipleaspectsoftheanalysisandwereinstrumentalin
deliveringthestudy:PrasoonAgarwal(transportandbuildings),MariaArgiri(naturalgas),
Christian Besson (oil and Russia), Alessandro Blasi (Russia), Raffaella Centurelli (energy
accessandbuildings),MichelD’Ausilio(powerandrenewables),DafyddElis(powerand
climate analysis), Matthew Frank (natural gas and subsidies), Timur Gül (transport and
climateanalysis),ShinichiKihara(nuclear),KateKumaria(climateanalysis),JungWooLee
(subsidiesandnuclear),KatrinSchaber(powerandrenewables),TatsuyaTomie(coaland
power),TimurTopalgoekceli(oilandnaturalgas),BrentWanner(powerandsubsidies),
DavidWilkinson(power,climateanalysisandnuclear),PeterWood(oilandnaturalgas),
Akira Yanagisawa (subsidies, industry and natural gas) and Tatiana Zhitenko (Russia).
SandraMooneyprovidedessentialsupport.
RobertPriddlecarriededitorialresponsibility.
ThestudybenefittedfrominputprovidedbynumerousIEAexpertsintheEnergyStatistics
Division, the Energy Markets and Security Directorate, the Directorate of Global Energy
Dialogue, and the Energy Policy and Technology Directorate. The Communication and
Information Office was instrumental in bringing the book to completion. In particular,
ChristinaHood,CarlosFernandezAlvarez,IsabelMurray,MoritzPaulus,JohannesTruby,
NathalieTrudeauandDennisVolkprovidedvaluablecontributions.Expertsfromseveral
directoratesoftheOECDandtheNuclearEnergyAgencyalsocontributedtothereport,
particularlyRonCameron,RobDellink,BertrandMagné,HelenMountford,RonSteenblik
andRobertVance.ThanksalsogotoDebraJustusforproofreadingthetext.
IanCronshawandTrevorMorganprovidedvaluableinputtotheanalysis.Thefollowing
expertsalsocontributed:IgorBashmakov,Jan-HeinJesse,TatianaMitrovaandLiuQiang.
Theworkcouldnothavebeenachievedwithoutthesubstantialsupportandco-operation
providedbymanygovernmentbodies,internationalorganisationsandenergycompanies
worldwide,notably:
The Department of Energy and Climate Change, United Kingdom; Department of State,
UnitedStates;Edison;ElectricPowerDevelopmentCo.Ltd,Japan;Enel;EnergyForecasting
1
1
0 Agency(APBE),Russia;EnergyStudiesInstitute,Singapore;Eni;ForeignandCommonwealth
2
A, Office, United Kingdom; Fortum Corporation; IEA Coal Industry Advisory Board (CIAB);
E
D/I
C
E
O
© AFockrenwoworldedgements 5
InstituteofEnergyEconomicsattheUniversityofCologne,Germany;InternationalInstitute
forAppliedSystemsAnalysis,Austria;IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC);
Ministèredel’écologie,dudéveloppementdurable,destransportsetdulogement,France;
Ministry of Economic Affairs, The Netherlands; Ministry of Energy, Russian Federation;
MinistryofPetroleumandEnergy,Norway;NorwegianAgencyforDevelopmentCooperation
(NORAD);RoyalMinistryofForeignAffairs,Norway;PeabodyEnergy;MinistryofKnowledge
Economy,Korea;JapanGasAssociation,Japan;Schlumberger;Shell;ShenhuaGroup;Statoil;
ToyotaMotorCorporation;UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme(UNDP)andtheUnited
NationsIndustrialDevelopmentOrganization(UNIDO).
Manyinternationalexpertsprovidedinput,commentedontheunderlyinganalyticalwork
andreviewedearlydraftsofeachchapter.Theircommentsandsuggestionswereofgreat
value.Theyinclude:
SalehAbdurrahman NationalEnergyCouncilofIndonesia
AliAissaoui APICORP
MarcoArcelli Enel
GabrielaElizondoAzuela WorldBank
PepukayeBardouille InternationalFinanceCorporation,UnitedStates
AndrewBarfour InstitutionofEngineers,Ghana
AndrewBarnett ThePolicyPractice,UnitedKingdom
YuriyBaron MinistryofEnergy,RussianFederation
PaulBaruya IEACleanCoalCentre,UnitedKingdom
IgorBashmakov CentreforEnergyEfficiency,RussianFederation
NicolasBauer PotsdamInstituteforClimateImpactResearch,Germany
GeorgBäuml Volkswagen
JohannesBaur EuropeanCommission
NazimBayraktar EnergyMarketRegulatoryAgency,EPDK,Turkey
ChrisBeaton InternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopment,
Switzerland
CarmenBecerril AccionaEnergia
RachidBencherif OPECFundforInternationalDevelopment
KamelBennaceur Schlumberger
BrunoBensasson GDFSuez
11 MikulBhatia WorldBank
0
2
EA, SankarBhattacharya MonashUniversity,Australia
D/I
C
E
O
© 6 WorldEnergyOutlook2011
AlexeyBiteryakov GazpromExport
RobertoBocca WorldEconomicForum
Jean-PaulBouttes EdF
AlbertBressand ColumbiaSchoolofInternationalandPublicAffairs,
UnitedStates
NigelBruce WorldHealthOrganization,Switzerland
PeterBrun Vestas
MichaelBuffier XstrataCoal
DavidCachot TrafiguraBeheerB.V.
GuyCaruso CenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies,
UnitedStates
MiltonCatelin WorldCoalAssociation
SharatChand TheEnergyandResourcesInstitute,India
ChrisCharles InternationalInstituteforSustainableDevelopment,
Switzerland
HelaCheikhrouhou AfricanDevelopmentBank
ElisabethClemens NorwegianAgencyforDevelopmentCooperation
BenClements InternationalMonetaryFund
JanuszCofala InternationalInstituteforAppliedSystemsAnalysis,Austria
DeanCooper UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme
AlanCopeland BureauofResourcesandEnergyEconomics,Australia
HansDaniels AlphaNaturalResources,UnitedStates
ChristianDeGromard AgenceFrançaisedeDeveloppement
MichelDeelen MinistryofForeignAffairs,TheNetherlands
JosDelbeke EuropeanCommission
CarmineDifiglio DepartmentofEnergy,UnitedStates
MarkDominik
GinaDownes Eskom
JózefDubinski CentralMiningInstitute,Poland
11 MohamedEl-Ashry UNFoundation
0
2
EA, KariEspegren InstituteforEnergyTechnology,Norway
D/I
C
E
O
© Acknowledgements 7
DonaldEwart Marston
VladimirFeygin InstituteofEnergyandFinance,RussianFederation
ChristianaFigueres UNFrameworkConventiononClimateChange
PeterFraser OntarioEnergyBoard,Canada
IreneFreudenschuss-Reichl Ambassador,Austria
HariKumarGadde WorldBank
DarioGarofalo Enel
FrancescoGattei Eni
DolfGielen InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency
DuleepGopalakrishnan ICFInternational
RainerGörgen FederalMinistryofEconomicsandTechnology,Germany
MichaelGrubb UniversityofCambridge,UnitedKingdom
HowardGruenspecht EnergyInformationAdministration,UnitedStates
AntoineHalff DepartmentofEnergy,UnitedStates
IanHall AngloAmerican
WenkeHan EnergyResearchInstitute,China
BrianHeath CoalIndustryAdvisoryBoard,InternationalEnergyAgency
SigurdHeiberg Statoil
JamesHenderson OxfordInstituteforEnergyStudies,UnitedKingdom
AntonioHernándezGarcia MinistryofIndustry,TourismandTrade,Spain
JamesHewlett DepartmentofEnergy,UnitedStates
MasazumiHirono TheJapanGasAssociation
NeilHirst GranthamInstituteonClimateChange,UnitedKingdom
TakashiHongo JapanBankforInternationalCooperation
TrevorHouser PetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomics
TomHowes EuropeanCommission
SteveHulton WoodMackenzie
EsaHyvärinen FortumCorporation
CatherineInglehearn ForeignandCommonwealthOffice,UnitedKingdom
1
1
0 FumiakiIshida NewEnergyandIndustrialTechnologyDevelopment
2
EA, Organization,Japan
D/I
C
E
O
© 8 WorldEnergyOutlook2011