World Energy Outlook 2010.

738 Pages·2010·16.071 MB·English

by  OECD

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restrictions that limit its use and distribution.
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World Energy Outlook
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The world appears to be emerging from the worst economic crisis in decades. Many
countries have made pledges under the Copenhagen Accord to reduce greenhouse-gas
emissions. Commitments have also been made by the G-20 and APEC to phase out
inefficient fossil-fuel subsidies. Are we, at last, on the path to a secure, reliable and
environmentally sustainable energy system?
Updated projections of energy demand, production, trade and investment, fuel by fuel and
region by region to 2035 are provided in the 2010 edition of the World Energy Outlook
(WEO). It includes, for the first time, a new scenario that anticipates future actions by
governments to meet the commitments they have made to tackle climate change and
growing energy insecurity.
WEO-2010 shows:
n w hat more must be done and spent to achieve the goal of the Copenhagen Accord to
limit the global temperature increase to 2°C and how these actions would impact on
oil markets;
n h ow emerging economies – led by China and India – will increasingly shape the
global energy landscape;
n w hat role renewables can play in a clean and secure energy future;
n w hat removing fossil-fuel subsidies would mean for energy markets, climate change
and state budgets;
n t he trends in Caspian energy markets and the implications for global energy supply;
n t he prospects for unconventional oil; and
n h ow to give the entire global population access to modern energy services.
With extensive data, projections and analysis, WEO-2010 provides invaluable insights
into how the energy system could evolve over the next quarter of a century. The book
is essential reading for anyone with a stake in the energy sector.
€150 (61 2010 15 1P1)
ISBN: 978 92 64 08624 1
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INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY
The International Energy Agency (IEA), an autonomous agency, was established in
November 1974. Its mandate is two-fold: to promote energy security amongst its member
countries through collective response to physical disruptions in oil supply and to advise member
countries on sound energy policy.
The IEA carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co-operation among 28 advanced
economies, each of which is obliged to hold oil stocks equivalent to 90 days of its net imports.
The Agency aims to:
n Secure member countries’ access to reliable and ample supplies of all forms of energy; in particular,
through maintaining effective emergency response capabilities in case of oil supply disruptions.
n Promote sustainable energy policies that spur economic growth and environmental protection
in a global context – particularly in terms of reducing greenhouse-gas emissions that contribute
to climate change.
n Improve transparency of international markets through collection and analysis of
energy data.
n Support global collaboration on energy technology to secure future energy supplies
and mitigate their environmental impact, including through improved energy
effi ciency and development and deployment of low-carbon technologies.
n Find solutions to global energy challenges through engagement
and dialogue with non-member countries, industry,
international organisations and other stakeholders. IEA member countries:
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Korea (Republic of)
Luxembourg
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Slovak Republic
Spain
© OECD/IEA, 2010
Sweden
International Energy Agency
Switzerland
9 rue de la Fédération
Turkey
75739 Paris Cedex 15, France
United Kingdom
Please note that this publication United States
is subject to specifi c restrictions
that limit its use and distribution. The European Commission
The terms and conditions are available also participates in
online at www.iea.org/about/copyright.asp the work of the IEA.
FOREWORD
Three of the thousands of numbers in the World Energy Outlook 2010, despite their
disparity, are worth putting alongside each other:
(cid:122) $312 billion — the cost of consumption subsidies to fossil fuels in 2009.
(cid:122) $57 billion — the cost of support given to renewable energy in 2009.
(cid:122) $36 billion per year — the cost of ending global energy poverty by 2030.
Adding under two percent to electricity tariffs in the OECD would raise enough money
to bring electricity to the entire global population within twenty years; while, in the
past year, the prospective cost of the additional global energy investment to 2035 to
curb greenhouse-gas emissions has risen by $1 trillion because of the caution of the
commitments made at Copenhagen.
My chief economist, Fatih Birol, and his team have again met our high expectations.
We have new projections, fuel by fuel, extending now to 2035; a special focus on
renewable energy; a stock-taking on energy and climate change in the aftermath
of Copenhagen; a look at the cost of achieving universal access to electricity and
clean cooking fuels; detailed information on the energy demand and resources of the
countries in the Caspian region; and insights into the scale of fossil-fuel subsidies and
the implications of phasing them out.
The basis of our projections this year has changed. The old Reference Scenario is dead
(though reborn as the Current Policies Scenario). The centrepiece of our presentation
is now the New Policies Scenario. This departs from our previous practice of building
our projections only on the measures governments had already taken.
Predicting what governments might do is a hazardous business. We have gone no
further than to take governments at their word, interpreting the intentions they have
declared into implementing measures and projecting the future on that basis. More
commitments and more policies will surely follow. We have not attempted to guess
what they might be; but the 450 Scenario remains as a measure of how much more
must be done to realise a sustainable future and how it could be done.
One point is certain. The centre of gravity of global energy demand growth now lies
in the developing world, especially in China and India. But uncertainties abound. Is
our emergence from the financial crisis of 2008-2009 a solid enough basis for our
assumptions about economic growth? Will China sustain and intensify the four-fold
improvement in energy intensity it has achieved in the last thirty years? Would a
three-fold increase in oil revenues in real terms satisfy OPEC producers in a world
committed to keep the global temperature rise below 2°Celsius? What will be the
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We cannot know. But, with the invaluable financial and analytical support of our
member countries and others who rely on the WEO, we can and do ensure, through this
new edition of the WEO, that responsible and rigorous information is available to help
decision-makers discharge their responsibilities to shape the energy future.
Nobuo Tanaka
Executive Director
This publication has been produced under the authority of the Executive Director of
the International Energy Agency. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the
views or policies of individual IEA member countries.
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study was prepared by the Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) of the International
Energy Agency in co-operation with other offices of the Agency. It was designed
and directed by Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the IEA. Laura Cozzi and Marco
Baroni co-ordinated the analysis of climate policy and modelling; Trevor Morgan
co-ordinated the analysis of oil and natural gas and the Caspian outlook; Amos
Bromhead co-ordinated the analysis of fossil-fuel subsidies. Maria Argiri led the work
on renewables, John Corben and Paweł Olejarnik (oil, gas and coal supply), Christian
Besson (unconventional oil), Alessandro Blasi (Caspian and oil), Raffaella Centurelli
(energy poverty and modelling), Michael-Xiaobao Chen (fossil-fuel subsidies and
China), Michel D’Ausilio (power sector and renewables), Dafydd Elis (power sector
and renewables), Matthew Frank (fossil-fuel subsidies and power sector), Tim Gould
(Caspian and oil), Timur Gül (transport and modelling), Kate Kumaria (climate
policy), Qiang Liu (China), Bertrand Magné (climate policy and modelling), Teresa
Malyshev (energy poverty), Timur Topalgoekceli (oil), David Wilkinson (power sector
and modelling) and Akira Yanagisawa (fossil-fuel subsidies and modelling). Sandra
Mooney provided essential support. For more information on the OCE team, please see
www.worldenergyoutlook.org.
Robert Priddle carried editorial responsibility.
The study benefited from input provided by IEA experts in different offices. Paolo
Frankl, Milou Beerepoot, Hugo Chandler and several other colleagues of the Renewable
Energy Division made valuable contributions to the renewable energy analysis. Ian
Cronshaw provide very helpful input to the gas and power sector analysis. Other IEA
colleagues who provided input to different parts of the book include, Jane Barbière,
Madeleine Barry, Ulrich Benterbusch, Rick Bradley, Aad van Bohemen, Pierpaolo
Cazzola, Anne-Sophie Corbeau, Bo Diczfalusy, David Elzinga, Lew Fulton, David Fyfe,
Rebecca Gaghen, Jean-Yves Garnier, Grayson Heffner, Christina Hood, Didier Houssin,
Brian Ricketts, Bertrand Sadin, Maria Sicilia, Sylvie Stephan and Cecilia Tam. Experts
from a number of directorates of the OECD also made valuable contributions to the
report, particularly Helen Mountford, Ronald Steenblik, Jean-Marc Burniaux, Jean
Château and Dambudzo Muzenda. Thanks also go to Debra Justus for proofreading the
text.
The work could not have been achieved without the substantial support and
co-operation provided by many government bodies, international organisations and
energy companies worldwide, notably:
Department of Energy, United States; Enel; Energy Research Institute, China; Foreign
Affairs and International Trade, Canada; Foreign and Commonwealth Office, United
Kingdom; HM Treasury, United Kingdom; IEA Coal Industry Advisory Board (CIAB);
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Laboratory (NREL), United States; Natural Resources, Canada; Navigant Consulting;
Norwegian Agency for Development Co-operation; Renewable Energy and Energy
Efficiency Partnership (REEEP); Schlumberger; Statoil; The Energy and Resources
Institute (TERI), India; Toyota Motor Corporation; United Nations Development
Programme (UNDP), the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO)
and the World Health Organisation (WHO).
Many international experts provided input, commented on the underlying analytical
work and reviewed early drafts of each chapter. Their comments and suggestions were
of great value. They include:
Asset Abdualiyev Consultant, Kazakhstan
Saleh Abdurrahman Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, Indonesia
Kalle Ahlstedt Fortum
Jun Arima Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan
Polina Averianova Eni
Georg Bäuml Volkswagen
Paul Bailey Department of Energy and Climate Change, United
Kingdom
Jim Bartis RAND Corporation
Chris Barton Department of Energy and Climate Change, United
Kingdom
Vaclav Bartuska Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Czech Republic
Paul Baruya IEA Clean Coal Centre, United Kingdom
Morgan Bazilian UNIDO
Carmen Becerril Martinez Acciona
Rachid Bencherif OPEC Fund for International Development, Austria
Osman Benchikh UN Educational Scientific and Cultural Organisation,
France
Kamel Bennaceur Schlumberger
Bruno Bensasson GDF SUEZ
Edgard Blaustein Ministry of Foreign Affairs, France
Roberto Bocca World Economic Forum
Jean-Paul Bouttes Electricite de France
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Nigel Bruce World Health Organisation, Switzerland
Peter Brun Vestas
Kenny Bruno Corporate Ethics International
Guy Caruso Center for Strategic and International Studies, United
States
Martin Child British Embassy, Kazakhstan
Ed Chow Center for Strategic and International Studies, United
States
Jan Cloin Ministry of Foreign Affairs, The Netherlands
Janusz Cofala International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Austria
Michael Cohen Department of Energy, United States
Ben Combes Committee on Climate Change, United Kingdom
Jennifer Coolidge CMX Caspian and Gulf Consultants
Joel Couse Total
Kevin Covert United States Embassy, Kazakhstan
Christian De Gromard Agence Française de Développement
Jos Delbeke European Commission
Carmen Difiglio Department of Energy, United States
Andrew Dobbie Department of Energy and Climate Change, United
Kingdom
Joanne Doornewaard Ministry of Economic Affairs, The Netherlands
Nick Douglas Department of the Interior, United States
Jens Drillisch KfW Bankengruppe, Germany
Stanislas Drochon PFC Energy
Simon Dyer The Pembina Institute, Canada
Ottmar Edenhofer Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,
Switzerland
Koffi Ekouevi World Bank, United States
Mike Enskat Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technisch Zusammenarbeit
(GTZ) GmbH Germany
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Jean-Pierre Favennec Institut Français du Pétrole
Roger Fairclough Neo Leaf Global
Herman Franssen International Energy Associates
Peter Fraser Ontario Energy Board, Canada
Irene Freudenschuss-Reichl Ministry for European and International Affairs,
Austria
Dario Garofalo Enel
Carlos Gascò-Travesedo Iberdrola
Holger Gassner RWE
Claude Gauvin Natural Resources Canada
John German International Council on Clean Transportation
Dolf Gielen UNIDO
Guido Glania Alliance for Rural Electrification, Belgium
José Goldemberg Instituto de Eletrotécnica e Energia, Brazil
Rainer Görgen Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology,
Germany
Irina Goryunova Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation,
Kazakhstan
Alex Greenstein Department of State, United States
Sanjeev Gupta International Monetary Fund, United States
Antoine Halff Newedge, United States
Kirsty Hamilton Royal Institute of International Affairs, United
Kingdom
Antonio Hernandez Garcia Ministry of Industry, Tourism and Trade, Spain
James Hewlett Department of Energy, United States
Masazumi Hirono Tokyo Gas
Ray Holland EU Energy Initiative Partnership Dialogue Facility,
Germany
Takashi Hongo Japan Bank for International Cooperation
Trevor Houser P eterson Institute for International Economics,
United States
10 Tom Howes European Commission
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