World energy outlook : 2004

576 Pages·2004·6.325 MB·English

by  OECD

I N T E R N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y A G E N C Y
WORLD
ENERG Y
OUTLOOK

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY ORGANISATION FOR
9, rue de la Fédération, ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION
75739 Paris Cedex 15, France AND DEVELOPMENT
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is an Pursuant to Article 1 of the Convention signed in Paris
autonomous body which was established in November on 14th December 1960, and which came into force
1974 within the framework of the Organisation for on 30th September 1961, the Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) to Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) shall
implement an international energy programme. promote policies designed:
It carries out a comprehensive programme of energy co- • to achieve the highest sustainable economic growth
operation among twenty-six* of the OECD’s thirty and employment and a rising standard of living in
member countries. The basic aims of the IEA are: member countries, while maintaining financial
stability, and thus to contribute to the development
• to maintain and improve systems for coping with oil of the world economy;
supply disruptions;
• to contribute to sound economic expansion in
• to promote rational energy policies in a global member as well as non-member countries in the
context through co-operative relations with non- process of economic development; and
member countries, industry and international
organisations; • to contribute to the expansion of world trade on a
multilateral, non-discriminatory basis in accordance
• to operate a permanent information system on the with international obligations.
international oil market;
The original member countries of the OECD are Austria,
• to improve the world’s energy supply and demand Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece,
structure by developing alternative energy sources Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands,
and increasing the efficiency of energy use; Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the
United Kingdom and the United States. The following
• to assist in the integration of environmental and countries became members subsequently through
energy policies. accession at the dates indicated hereafter: Japan
(28th April 1964), Finland (28th January 1969), Australia
(7th June 1971), New Zealand (29th May 1973),
* IEA member countries: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Mexico (18th May 1994), the Czech Republic
Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, (21st December 1995), Hungary (7th May 1996),
Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, the Republic Poland (22nd November 1996), the Republic of Korea
of Korea, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, New Zealand, (12th December 1996) and Slovakia (28th September
Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the 2000). The Commission of the European Communities
United Kingdom, the United States. The European takes part in the work of the OECD (Article 13 of the OECD
Commission also takes part in the work of the IEA. Convention).
© OECD/IEA, 2004
Applications for permission to reproduce or translate all or part of this publication
should be made to: Head of Publications Service, OECD
2, rue André-Pascal, 75775 Paris Cedex 16, France.
FOREWORD
World Energy Outlook 2004 appears at an extremely volatile and uncertain
moment in modern energy history. Soaring oil, gas and coal prices, exploding
energy demand in China, war in Iraq and electricity blackouts across the world
are among the signs and causes of the profound transformations through which
the energy world is passing. To this unsettling environment, WEO-2004
brings a mass of statistical information, informed projections and focused
energy analysis. It does not pretend to solve the problems, but it provides the
indispensable information from which solutions will eventually be crafted.
It is my very great pleasure once again to present the International Energy
Agency’s flagship publication and to pay tribute to Dr. Fatih Birol and the
WEO team under his direction. Acknowledgment is also due to many other
members of the IEA staff who contributed to this effort, as well as to the scores
of diligent “peer reviewers” from industry, government and academia who gave
generously of their time and expertise.
As we say in French, “La réputation du WEO n’est plus à faire”. The publication
is acknowledged worldwide as the single most important source of energy
statistics, projections and analysis. The WEO-2002, as well as last year’s
special World Energy Investment Outlook, received several awards for analytic
excellence.
Ensuring the continuing security of energy supplies is the International Energy
Agency’s core mission and raison d’être. This book documents a large and
growing array of potential threats to that security, including the spectre of
disruption along vulnerable pipelines and sea-lanes, and especially at a number
of narrow chokepoints on the oil routes which have been dubbed the “dire
straits”. The threats are all the more preoccupying in light of the WEO’s
projections of oil demand, supply and trade. All the large consuming countries
– now including China and India – are growing increasingly dependent on
imports from an ever-smaller group of distant producer countries, some of
them politically unstable. In consequence, oil markets are likely to become less
flexible and prices more volatile.
Security is not the only issue this book raises. It records the continuing
unacceptable contribution of the energy sector to climate-destabilising carbon
dioxide emissions. It reminds the reader of the shameful fact that a billion-
and-a-half of the world’s poorest citizens totally lack access to electricity, and
almost as many will lack it in the year 2030. It takes an in-depth look at
Russia’s emergence as a major world energy supplier, but poses some probing
questions about Russia’s energy future. And once again WEOdraws attention
to the staggering investments needed to meet rising energy demand over the
Foreword 3
next quarter century – and warns that the financing may well not be forthcoming,
especially in the poorest countries.
Things could, of course, improve. The worst case is not inevitable. To make
this point, the WEO-2004provides an Alternative Policy Scenario, including,
for the very first time, developing as well as developed countries. This scenario
demonstrates that we can indeed reduce our dependence on energy imports,
cut our growing carbon emissions, burn our fuels more cleanly and efficiently.
We can do it only if we can summon the required political will.
This work is published under my authority as Executive Director of the IEA.
It does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of IEA member countries.
Claude Mandil
4 World Energy Outlook 2004
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This study was prepared by the Economic Analysis Division of the
International Energy Agency in co-operation with other divisions of the IEA.
The Director of Long-Term Office, Noé van Hulst, provided guidance and
encouragement during the project. The study was designed and managed by
Fatih Birol, Head of the Economic Analysis Division. Other members of EAD
who were responsible for bringing the study to completion include: Maria
Argiri, Marco Baroni, Amos Bromhead, François Cattier, Laura Cozzi, Lisa
Guarrera, Hiroyuki Kato, Trevor Morgan, Nicola Pochettino and Maria T.
Storeng. Claudia Jones provided essential support.
The IEA’s Carmen Difiglio, Fridtjof Unander, Dolf Gielen, Paul Waide,
David Fyfe, Isabel Murray and Mabrouka Bouziane provided substantial
contributions to this Outlook. Scott Sullivan carried editorial responsibility.
The study also benefited from input provided by other IEA colleagues, namely:
Martina Bosi, Rick Bradley, John Cameron, Viviane Consoli, Doug Cooke,
Sylvie Cornot, Muriel Custodio, Ralf Dickel, Lawrence Eagles, Jason Elliot,
Meredydd Evans, Lew Fulton, Rebecca Gaghen, Jean-Yves Garnier, Dagmar
Graczyk, Klaus Jacoby, Pierre Lefèvre, Jeffrey Logan, Lawrence Metzroth,
Cédric Philibert, Loretta Ravera, Bertrand Sadin, Rick Sellers, Ulrik Stridbaek
and Mike Taylor.
The work could not have been achieved without the substantial support
provided by many government bodies, international organisations and energy
companies worldwide, notably the Ministry of Environment of Italy, the Ministry
of Petroleum and Energy of Norway, the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency/Argonne National Laboratory, the United Nations Environment
Programme, the United Nations Development Programme, the Organization
of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, IHS Energy Group, the Institute of
Energy Economics of Japan and the World Coal Institute.
Many international experts commented on the underlying analytical work and
reviewed early drafts of each chapter. Their comments and suggestions were of
great value. All errors and omissions are solely the responsibility of the IEA.
Prominent contributors include:
Chapter 3 (Oil Market Outlook)
Thomas S. Ahlbrandt U.S. Geological Survey, United States
Kenneth Chew IHS Energy Group, Switzerland
Joel Couse Total, France
Jean-Christophe Füeg Swiss Federal Office of Energy, Switzerland
Dermot Gately New York University, United States
Acknowledgements 5
Nadir Gürer OPEC Secretariat, Austria
Alex Kemp University of Aberdeen, United Kingdom
Timothy Klett U.S. Geological Survey, United States
David Knapp Energy Intelligence Group, United States
Jean Laherrere Consultant, France
Alessandro Lanza Eni S.p.A., Italy
Yves Mathieu Institut Français du Pétrole, France
Peter Nicol ABN AMRO, United Kingdom
Matthew R. Simmons Simmons & Company, United States
Michael D. Smith BP, United Kingdom
Chapters 4 to 8 (Other Fuels, Electricity,
and Regional Outlooks)
William A. Bruno Consol Energy Inc., United States
Marie-Françoise Chabrelie Cedigaz, France
Christine Copley World Coal Institute, United Kingdom
Eduardo Luiz Correia Petrobras, Brazil
Reinhard Haas Technical University of Vienna, Austria
Kokichi Ito The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
Tooraj Jamasb University of Cambridge, United Kingdom
Jim Jensen Jensen Associates, United States
Malcolm Keay World Coal Institute, United Kingdom
Richard Lavergne DGEMP, France
Maria Elvira Pinero Maceira CEPEL, Brazil
John Paffenbarger Constellation Energy, United States
Mark Radka United Nations Environment Programme, France
Gustav Resch Technical University of Vienna, Austria
Jonathan Stern Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, United
Kingdom
Yukari Yamashita The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
Chapter 9 (Russia – an In-Depth Study)
Rudiger Ahrend OECD, France
Garegin S. Aslanian Centre for Energy Policy, Russia
Igor Bashmakov CENEF, Russia
Leonard L. Coburn Department of Energy, United States
Bob Ebel Center for Strategic and International Studies,
United States
Jean-Christophe Füeg Swiss Federation Office of Energy, Switzerland
Andrei Konoplyanik Energy Charter Secretariat, Belgium
Vladimir Konovalov Petroleum Advisory Forum, Russia
6 World Energy Outlook 2004
Catherine Locatelli Laboratoire d’Économie de la Production et de
l’Intégration Internationale – Département
Économie et Politique de l’Énergie, France
Vladimir Milov Institute of Energy Policy, Russia
Valery Nesterov Troika Dialog, Russia
Stephen O’Sullivan UFG, Russia
Jonathan Stern Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, United
Kingdom
Chapter 10 (Energy and Development)
Arnold Baker Sandia National Laboratories, United States
Dermot Byrne Electricity Supply Board, Ireland
Ananda Covindassamy World Bank, United States
Laurent Dittrick European Commission, Belgium
Christoph Frei World Economic Forum, Switzerland
Mark Howells University of Cape Town, South Africa
Céline Kauffmann OECD, France
Philip Mann University of Oxford, United Kingdom
Eva Paaske Ministry of Petroleum and Energy, Norway
Prabodh Pourouchottamin EDF, France
Kamal Rijal United Nations Development Programme,
United States
Jamal Saghir World Bank, United States
Judy Siegel Energy & Security Group, United States
Barrie Stevens OECD, France
Minoru Takada United Nations Development Programme,
United States
Gordon Weynand USAID, United States
Chapter 11 (World Alternative Policy Scenario)
Christo Artusio Department of State, United States
Randall Bowie European Commission, Belgium
John Christensen United Nations Environment Programme,
Denmark
Mario Contaldi Italian Agency for the Protection of the Environ-
mentand Territory, Italy
Ananda Covindassamy World Bank, United States
Zhou Dadi Energy Research Institute, People’s Republic of
China
James Edmonds Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, United
States
Acknowledgements 7
Donald Hanson Argonne National Laboratory, United States
Tom Howes European Commission, Belgium
Kokichi Ito The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
John A. Laitner U.S. Environmental Protection Agency/
Argonne National Laboratory, United States
Leonidas Mantzos National Technical University of Athens, Greece
Eric Martinot Worldwatch Institute, United States
Jonathan Pershing World Resources Institute, United States
Kamal Rijal United Nations Development Programme,
United States
James Rockall World LPG Association, France
Jamal Saghir World Bank, United States
Roberto Schaeffer Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Leo Schrattenholzer International Institute for Applied Systems
Analysis, Austria
Jim Steel U.S. Department of State, United States
Yukari Yamashita The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan
Yufeng Yang Energy Research Institute, People’s Republic of
China
8 World Energy Outlook 2004
Comments and questions are welcome
and should be addressed as follows:
Dr Fatih Birol
Chief Economist
Head, Economic Analysis Division
International Energy Agency
9, rue de la Fédération
75739 Paris Cedex 15
France
Telephone: [phone]
Fax: [phone]
Email: [email protected]