World Energy Outlook 2000

444 Pages·2000·4.764 MB·English

by  OECD

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FOREWORD
The World Energy Outlookhas become the authoritative source for energy
projections of the world’s energy future. This 2000 edition examines energy
demand and supply for 13 world regions to 2020. It draws the implications of
these projections for international trade, energy-related CO emissions and
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investment requirements in power generation.
The study does not try to predict the future, but to identify and analyse key
factors in global energy over the next two decades. Its projections are derived
from a “Reference Scenario”, which incorporates the new policies and measures
enacted in OECD countries in order to meet their commitments under the
Kyoto Protocol, as well as some other measures which alsoreduce CO emissions.
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Previous editions of the Outlook used a “business-as-usual” approach, which
posited a world where no new energy and climate policies were introduced. The
IEA’s World Energy Model — the tool for generating the projections — has been
enhanced to include separate models for Russia, India and Brazil.
We project continuing steady growth in world energy use and in related
CO emissions, despite the recent efforts by many OECD countries to mitigate
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unwanted climate change. Our findings describe the extent of the challenge.
Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the world energy mix. OECD
countries’ share of world energy demand will continue to decline in favour of
non-OECD countries. Consuming regions, including the OECD and the
dynamic Asian economies, will become much more dependent on imported oil
and gas. As demand grows, massive investment in oil production facilities will
be needed, particularly in the Middle East. Large investments in electricity
generation, in particular in developing countries, will also be required.
We have developed three “alternative cases” to the Reference Scenario. In
one, we measure the extent to which an international market for CO emission
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reductions could reduce the costs of meeting the Kyoto targets. A second
alternative examines the transport sector and points to the need for a package
of measures to limit CO emissions in OECD countries. A third case
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demonstrates the scope that exists for mitigating rising CO emissions in
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OECD countries by switching to natural gas and renewables, extending the
lives of existing nuclear plants, and boosting the role of combined heat and
power technologies.
This work is published under my authority as Executive Director of the
IEA and does not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the IEA Member
countries.
Robert Priddle
Executive Director
Foreword 3
Comments and questions are welcome and should be addressed as
follows:
Fatih Birol
Head, Economic Analysis Division
International Energy Agency
9, rue de la Federation
75739 Paris Cedex 15
France
Telephone: [phone]
Fax.: [phone]
E-mail: [email protected]
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This Outlookwas prepared by the Economic Analysis Division (EAD)
of the IEA. The Director of the Long-Term Office, Olivier Appert,
provided guidance and encouragement throughout the project. The study
was designed and managed by Fatih Birol, Head of the Economic Analysis
Division. Other members of the EAD who were responsible for bringing
this study to completion include: Maria Argiri, François Cattier, Laura
Cozzi, Sandrine Duchesne, Jan Keppler, Atsuhito Kurozumi, Teresa
Malyshev and Alison Sadin. Many colleagues from other IEA Divisions
made important contributions: Michael Landwehr (lead author for
Alternative Transportation Case), Céline Marie-Lilliu (Alternative
Transportation Case), Fridtjof Unander (Alternative Power Generation
Case-fossil fuel section), John Paffenbarger (Alternative Power Generation
Case-nuclear power section), Isabel Murray (co-author Russia Chapter),
Mike Wittner (oil supply), Alessandro Lanza (emission trading modelling)
and Pierre Audinet (input to India chapter).
The study also benefited from the comments and suggestions of other
IEA colleagues. These include: Richard Baron, John Cameron, Xavier
Chen, Carmen Difiglio, Peter Fraser, Miharu Kanai, Sohbet Karbuz, Hans
Kausch, David Knapp, Sylvie Lambert D’Apote, Lawrence Metzroth,
Hanns Neef, Hans Nilsson, Jonathan Pershing, Rick Sellers, Karen
Treanton, François Verneyre, Maria Virdis and Deborah White. Two
independent consultants made valuable contributions, Robert Cornell and
Trevor Morgan.
In producing this work, discussions were held with a wide range of
experts outside the IEA. They include many officials of Member and non-
Member governments and representatives of international organizations
and research institutes around the world. We attempt to acknowledge all
those contributions on the next page, and we apologize if we have
inadvertently left anyone off the list.
Of course, all errors and omissions are solely the responsibility of the
authors.
Acknowledgements 5
Acknowledgement of Experts outside of the IEA
Tom Ahlbrandt, United States Geological Survey, Colorado, USA
Paul Atkinson, OECD Economics Department, Paris, France
Jean-Marc Burnieaux, OECD Economics Department, Paris, France
Jack Cadogan, United States Department of Energy, Washington DC, USA
Pantelis Capros, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece
David Chien, United States Department of Energy, Washington DC, USA
Patrick Criqui, Institut d’Economie et Politique de l’Energie, Grenoble,
France
Manfred Decker, European Commission, DG TREN, Brussels, Belgium
Denny Ellerman, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Massachusetts,
USA
Jane Ellis, OECD Environment Directorate
Sujata Gupta, Tata Energy Research Institute, New Delhi, India
Nadir Gurer, Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Vienna,
Austria
Mary Hutzler, United States Department of Energy, Washington DC, USA
Yonghun Jung, Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, Tokyo, Japan
Kazunari Kainou, Ministry of International Trade and Industry, Tokyo,
Japan
Nina Kousnetzoff, Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et d’Informations
Internationales, Paris, France
Catherine Locatelli, Institut d’Economie et Politique de l’Energie,
Grenoble, France
David McNabb, Natural Resources Canada, Ottawa, Canada
John Mitchell, Royal Institute of International Affairs, London, United
Kingdom
Edmilson Moutinho dos Santos, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil
K.Y. Nam, International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, Austria
Marcelo Khaled Poppe, Agencia Nacional de Energia Eletrica, Brasilia, Brazil
John Hugh Rees, European Commission, DG TREN, Brussels, Belgium
Ji-Chul Ryu, Korea Energy Economics Institute, Seoul, Republic of Korea
Karen Schneider, Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource
Economics, Canberra, Australia
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Leo Schrattenholzer, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis,
Laxenburg, Austria
Oleg A. Sinyugin, Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
Jeff Skeer, United States Department of Energy, Washington DC, USA
Lakis Vouyoukas, Freelance Energy Consultant, Athens, Greece
Zhongan Wang, State Planning and Development Commission, Beijing,
China
Keith Welham, Rio Tinto plc., London, United Kingdom
Peter Wiederkehr, OECD Environment Directorate, Paris, France
Peter Wilmer, OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, Paris, France
Yukari Yamashita, Institute of Energy Economics of Japan, Tokyo, Japan
Keiichi Yokobori, Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, Tokyo, Japan
Acknowledgements 7
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Foreword 3
Acknowledgements 5
Table of Contents 9
List of Figures in Text 12
List of Tables in Text 16
Executive Summary 21
PART A: Global Trends to 2020 31
Chapter 1 The Context 33
Key Assumptions 33
The Reference Scenario and Alternative Cases 41
Major Uncertainties 44
2 World Energy Trends 47
Primary Energy Demand 47
Final Energy Demand 60
The Environmental Implications 64
3 The Energy Market Outlook 71
Oil Market Outlook 71
Gas Market Outlook 84
Coal Market Outlook 91
Power Generation 95
PART B: Regional Outlooks to 2020 109
Chapter 4 OECD North America 111
Introduction 111
Macroeconomic Background 112
Recent Energy-Sector Developments 114
Assumptions 117
Results of the Projections 118
5 OECD Europe 133
Introduction 133
Macroeconomic Background 134
Recent Energy-Sector Developments 135
Assumptions 137
Results of the Projections 139
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6 OECD Pacific 153
Introduction 153
Macroeconomic Background 154
Recent Energy-Sector Developments 155
Assumptions 156
Results of the Projections 158
7 Russia 171
Introduction 171
Macroeconomic Background 173
Recent Energy-Sector Developments 173
Assumptions 175
Results of the Projections 177
Environmental Issues 186
8 China 189
Introduction 189
Macroeconomic Background 190
Recent Energy-Sector Developments 192
Assumptions 193
Results of the Projections 195
Environmental Issues 206
9 Brazil 207
Introduction 207
Macroeconomic Background 208
Recent Energy-Sector Developments 209
Assumptions 213
Results of the Projections 213
Environmental Issues 223
PART C: Special Issues Arising from the Outlook 225
Chapter 10 Greenhouse-Gas Emission Trading 227
Introduction 227
The Kyoto Protocol and Its Three Dimensions
of Flexibility 228
Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Energy
Consumption 230
The Case for Trading 232
The Results 235
What the Others Are Doing 242
Conclusions and Policy Implications 244
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11 The Alternative Transportation Case 249
Introduction 249
Transport Energy Demand Trends
in the Reference Scenario 250
The Alternative Case 260
Conclusions 276
12 The Alternative Power Generation Case 277
Introduction 277
Fossil Fuels 278
Nuclear Power 287
Renewables 291
Combined Heat and Power Plants (CHP) 298
Summary of Results and Conclusions 303
13 India: An In-depth Study 305
Introduction 305
Major Issues and Uncertainties 307
Macroeconomic Background 307
Recent Energy-Sector Developments 309
Assumptions 314
Results of the Projections 315
Supply Prospects 324
Environmental Issues 330
14 Assessment of Past WEOProjections 333
Projections and the World Energy Model 333
Brief Description of Past WEOs 334
Exogenous Variables in the WEO 335
Evaluation of Projections 339
Comparisons with Other Energy Outlooks 343
What Have We Learned? 348
PART D: Tables for Reference Scenario Projections 349
Economic Growth and Population Assumptions 352
Supplementary Tables for Energy Demand,
Power Generation and CO Emissions 354
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Appendix 1 Description of the World Energy Model 419
2 Comparison of WEO 2000 Projections
with Other Studies 431
3 Definitions and Conversion Factors 441
List of Abbreviations and Acronyms 447
Bibliography 449
Table of Contents 11