World economic outlook October 2014 : legacies, clouds, uncertainties.

245 Pages·2014·9.319 MB·English

by  International Monetary Fund.

W o r l d E c o n o m i c a n d F i n a n c i a l S u r v e y s
WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
October 2014
Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties
International Monetary Fund
©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution
©2014 International Monetary Fund

Cover and Design: Luisa Menjivar and Jorge Salazar
Composition: Maryland Composition
Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Joint Bank-Fund Library
World economic outlook (International Monetary Fund)
World economic outlook : a survey by the staff of the International Monetary Fund. —
Washington, DC : International Monetary Fund, 1980–
v. ; 28 cm. — (1981–1984: Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund, 0251-6365).
— (1986– : World economic and financial surveys, 0256-6877)
Semiannual. Some issues also have thematic titles.
Has occasional updates, 1984–
ISSN (print) 0256–6877
ISSN (online) 1564–5215
1. Economic development — Periodicals. 2. Economic forecasting — Periodicals.
3. Economic policy — Periodicals. 4. International economic relations — Periodicals.
I. International Monetary Fund. II. Series: Occasional paper (International Monetary Fund).
III. Series: World economic and financial surveys.
HC10.80
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The World Economic Outlook (WEO) is a survey by the IMF staff published twice a
year, in the spring and fall. The WEO is prepared by the IMF staff and has benefited
from comments and suggestions by Executive Directors following their discussion of the
report on September 25, 2014. The views expressed in this publication are those of the
IMF staff and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF’s Executive Directors
or their national authorities.
Recommended citation: International Monetary Fund. 2014. World Economic Outlook:
Legacies, Clouds, Uncertainties. Washington (October).
Publication orders may be placed online, by fax, or through the mail:
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©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution
CONTENTS
Assumptions and Conventions ix
Further Information and Data xi
Preface xii
Foreword xiii
Executive Summary xv
Chapter 1. Recent Developments, Prospects, and Policy Priorities 1
Recent Developments and Prospects 1
Risks 13
Policies 19
Special Feature: Commodity Market Developments and Forecasts, with a Focus on
Natural Gas in the World Economy 24
Box 1.SF.1. The Trade Implications of the U.S. Shale Gas Boom 32
Box 1.1. Housing Markets across the Globe: An Update 34
Box 1.2. The Origins of IMF Growth Forecast Revisions since 2011 39
References 44
Chapter 2. Country and Regional Perspectives 45
The United States and Canada: Recovery to Continue after Temporary Setback 45
Europe 48
Asia and Pacific: Steady Growth Ahead 53
Latin America and the Caribbean: Still Losing Speed 56
Commonwealth of Independent States: Coping with Geopolitical Uncertainties 59
The Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan: Fragile Recovery 61
Sub-Saharan Africa: Maintaining Speed 64
Spillover Feature: Underlying Drivers of U.S. Yields Matter for Spillovers 68
References 74
Chapter 3. Is It Time for an Infrastructure Push? The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment 75
The Economics of Infrastructure: A Primer 77
Public and Infrastructure Capital and Investment: Where Do We Stand? 79
The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment 81
Summary and Policy Implications 89
Appendix 3.1. Data Sources and Country Groupings 91
Appendix 3.2. The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment 91
Box 3.1. Public Investment in Japan during the Lost Decade 103
Box 3.2. Improving the Efficiency of Public Investment 105
Box 3.3. Fiscal Balance Sheets: The Significance of Nonfinancial Assets and Their Measurement 107
Box 3.4. The Macroeconomic Effects of Scaling Up Public Investment in Developing Economies 108
Box 3.5. Fiscal Institutions, Rules, and Public Investment 110
References 112
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WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: LEGACIES, CLOUDS, UNCERTAINTIES
Chapter 4. Are Global Imbalances at a Turning Point? 115
Introduction 115
Narrowing the Bulge: The Evolution of Flow Imbalances 117
The Mechanics of the Adjustment 119
The Durability of the Adjustment 125
The Stock Dimension of Imbalances 129
Looking Ahead: How Will Global Imbalances Evolve? 132
Conclusion 136
Appendix 4.1. Data Definitions, Sources, and Descriptions 137
Appendix 4.2. Panel Estimations 139
Appendix 4.3. Distortions, Policies, and Imbalances 143
Appendix 4.4. Counterfactual Output Gap Analysis 144
Appendix 4.5. Vulnerability Thresholds 145
Box 4.1. Switching Gears: The 1986 External Adjustment 146
Box 4.2. A Tale of Two Adjustments: East Asia and the Euro Area 150
References 154
Annex: IMF Executive Board Discussion of the Outlook, September 2014 155
Statistical Appendix 159
Assumptions 159
What’s New 160
Data and Conventions 160
Classification of Countries 161
General Features and Composition of Groups in the World Economic Outlook Classification 162
Table A. Classification by World Economic Outlook Groups and Their Shares in Aggregate GDP,
Exports of Goods and Services, and Population, 2013 163
Table B. Advanced Economies by Subgroup 164
Table C. European Union 164
Table D. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region and Main Source of Export Earnings 165
Table E. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region, Net External Position, and
Status as Heavily Indebted Poor Countries and Low-Income Developing Countries 166
Table F. Economies with Exceptional Reporting Periods 168
Table G. Key Data Documentation 169
Box A1. Economic Policy Assumptions Underlying the Projections for Selected Economies 179
List of Tables 183
Output (Tables A1–A4) 184
Inflation (Tables A5–A7) 191
Financial Policies (Table A8) 196
Foreign Trade (Table A9) 197
Current Account Transactions (Tables A10–A12) 199
Balance of Payments and External Financing (Table A13) 206
Flow of Funds (Table A14) 210
Medium-Term Baseline Scenario (Table A15) 213
World Economic Outlook, Selected Topics 215
Update: World Economic Outlook, January 2015 - Cross Currents
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CONTENTS
Tables
Table 1.1. Overview of the World Economic Outlook Projections 2
Table 1.SF.1. World FossilF uel Reserves, Production, and Consumption 27
Table 1.SF.2. Natural Gas Reserves, Production, and Consumption, by Country 27
Table 1.SF.1.1. Regression Results 33
Table 1.1.1. IMF Assessments of Housing Market Developments in Rebound Economies 37
Table 1.2.1. Contribution to Global Growth Forecast Error 40
Table 2.1. Selected Advanced Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,
Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 48
Table 2.2. Selected European Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,
Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 50
Table 2.3. Selected Asian and Pacific Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices, Current Account
Balance, and Unemployment 55
Table 2.4. Selected Western Hemisphere Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,
Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 58
Table 2.5. Commonwealth of Independent States: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,
Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 60
Table 2.6. Selected Middle East and North African Economies: Real GDP,
Consumer Prices, Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 62
Table 2.7. Selected Sub-Saharan African Economies: Real GDP, Consumer Prices,
Current Account Balance, and Unemployment 65
Table 3.1. Elasticity of Output to Public Capital 87
Table 3.2. Economy Group Composition 92
Table 3.3. Data Sources 93
Table 3.4. Effect of Public Investment on Output in Advanced Economies: Robustness Checks 95
Table 3.5. Effect of Public Investment on Output in Emerging Market and Developing
Economies: Public Investment Shocks Derived from a Fiscal Policy Rule 101
Table 3.6. Effects of Public Investment on Output in Emerging Market and Developing
Economies: Public Investment Instrumented by Predicted Official Loan Disbursement 102
Table 3.3.1. Summary Classification of Nonfinancial Assets 107
Table 4.1. Largest Deficit and Surplus Economies, 2006 and 2013 118
Table 4.2. Largest Debtor and Creditor Economies (Net Foreign Assets and Liabilities), 2006 and 2013 130
Table 4.3. Decomposition of Changes in Net Foreign Assets between 2006 and 2013 133
Table 4.4. Data Sources 138
Table 4.5. Sample Economies 140
Table 4.6. Panel Regression Results, 1970–2013 141
Table 4.7. Panel Regression Results, 2007–13 142
Table 4.8. Estimated Threshold Values and Associated Classification Errors 144
Table 4.1.1. Largest Deficit and Surplus Economies, 1986 and 1991 147
Table 4.1.2. Panel Regression Results, Post–Plaza Accord versus Post–2006 Current Account Adjustments 147
Table A1. Summary of World Output 184
Table A2. Advanced Economies: Real GDP and Total Domestic Demand 185
Table A3. Advanced Economies: Components of Real GDP 186
Table A4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP 188
Table A5. Summary of Inflation 191
Table A6. Advanced Economies: Consumer Prices 192
Table A7. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices 193
Table A8. Major Advanced Economies: General Government Fiscal Balances and Debt 196
Table A9. Summary of World Trade Volumes and Price s 197
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WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: LEGACIES, CLOUDS, UNCERTAINTIES
Table A10. Summary of Current Account Balances 199
Table A11. Advanced Economies: Balance on Current Account 202
Table A12. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Balance on Current Account 203
Table A13. Summary of Financial Account Balances 206
Table A14. Summary of Net Lending and Borrowing 210
Table A15. Summary of World Medium-Term Baseline Scenario 213
Online Tables
Table B1. Advanced Economies: Unemployment, Employment, and Real GDP per Capita
Table B2. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Real GDP
Table B3. Advanced Economies: Hourly Earnings, Productivity, and Unit Labor Costs in Manufacturing
Table B4. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Consumer Prices
Table B5. Summary of Fiscal and Financial Indicators
Table B6. Advanced Economies: General and Central Government Net Lending/Borrowing
and Excluding Social Security Schemes
Table B7. Advanced Economies: General Government Structural Balances
Table B8. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/
Borrowing and Overall Fiscal Balance
Table B9. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: General Government Net Lending/
Borrowing
Table B10. Advanced Economies: Exchange Rates
Table B11. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Broad Money Aggregates
Table B12. Advanced Economies: Export Volumes, Import Volumes, and Terms of Trade
in Goods and Services
Table B13. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: Total Trade in Goods
Table B14. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Source of Export Earnings: Total Trade in Goods
Table B15. Summary of Current Account Transactions
Table B16. Summary of External Debt and Debt Service
Table B17. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Region: External Debt by Maturity
and Type of Creditor
Table B18. Emerging Market and Developing Economies by Analytical Criteria: External Debt
by Maturity and Type of Creditor
Table B19. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Ratio of External Debt to GDP
Table B20. Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Debt-Service Ratios
Table B21. Emerging Market and Developing Economies, Medium-Term Baseline Scenario:
Selected Economic Indicators
Figures
Figure 1.1. Global Activity Indicators 3
Figure 1.2. Global Inflation 4
Figure 1.3. Monetary Conditions in Advanced Economies 4
Figure 1.4. Financial Market Conditions in Advanced Economies 5
Figure 1.5. Financial Market Conditions and Capital Flows in Emerging Market Economies 6
Figure 1.6. Fiscal Policies 6
Figure 1.7. Monetary Policies and Credit in Emerging Market Economies 7
Figure 1.8. GDP Growth Forecasts 8
Figure 1.9. External Sector 11
Figure 1.10. Exchange Rates and Reserves 12
Figure 1.11. Risks to the Global Outlook 14
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CONTENTS
Figure 1.12. Recession and Deflation Risks 14
Figure 1.13. Iraq Oil Shock 16
Figure 1.14. Secular Stagnation 18
Figure 1.15. Capacity, Unemployment, and Output Trends 20
Figure 1.SF.1. Commodity Market Developments 24
Figure 1.SF.2. Balance of Risks 26
Figure 1.SF.3. Natural Gas Prices 26
Figure 1.SF.4. Liquefied Natural Gas Imports and Exports, 2013 28
Figure 1.SF.5. United States: Liquefied Natural Gas Imports 29
Figure 1.SF.6. Impulse Response of Relative Industrial Production to a Unit Relative
Natural Gas Price Shock 29
Figure 1.SF.7. Japan: Liquefied Natural Gas Imports 30
Figure 1.SF.8. Japan: Liquefied Natural Gas Imports by Region 30
Figure 1.SF.1.1. Manufacturing Sector Exports 32
Figure 1.1.1. IMF Global House Price Index 34
Figure 1.1.2. Two-Speed Recovery in Housing Markets 35
Figure 1.1.3. Construction Gross Value Added and Residential Investment 35
Figure 1.1.4. Use of Macroprudential Tools to Manage Housing Booms 38
Figure 1.2.1. Growth Forecast Errors by Region, 2011–13 41
Figure 1.2.2. Partner-Country versus Domestic Growth Forecast Error 42
Figure 1.2.3. Growth Forecast Error versus Lagged Growth Forecast Error 42
Figure 1.2.4. Growth and Forecast Revisions in Major Economies 43
Figure 2.1. 2015 GDP Growth Forecasts and the Effects of a Plausible Downside Scenario 46
Figure 2.2. The United States and Canada: Recovery to Continue after Temporary Setback 47
Figure 2.3. Advanced Europe: At Different Stages of Recovery 49
Figure 2.4. Emerging and Developing Europe: Domestic Demand Taking Hold 52
Figure 2.5. Asia and Pacific: Steady Growth Ahead 54
Figure 2.6. Latin America and the Caribbean: Still Losing Speed 57
Figure 2.7. Commonwealth of Independent States: Coping with Geopolitical Uncertainties 59
Figure 2.8. The Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan: Fragile Recovery 63
Figure 2.9. Sub-Saharan Africa: Maintaining Speed 66
Figure 2.SF.1. Implied Volatility 68
Figure 2.SF.2. Drivers of U.S. Yields 69
Figure 2.SF.3. Spillovers from U.S. Money and Real Shocks 71
Figure 2.SF.4. United States: Average Response of Industrial Production after Varying Intervals 71
Figure 2.SF.5. Spillovers from U.S. Money and Real Shocks by Country Group 72
Figure 3.1. WEO Medium-Term Growth Projections 75
Figure 3.2. Evolution of Public Capital Stock and Public Investment 80
Figure 3.3. Physical Measures of Infrastructure 80
Figure 3.4. Quality of Infrastructure in G7 Economies 81
Figure 3.5. Effect of Public Investment in Advanced Economies 83
Figure 3.6. Effect of Public Investment in Advanced Economies: Role of Economic
Conditions, Efficiency, and Mode of Financing 84
Figure 3.7. Output and Public Debt in the Aftermath of Public Investment Booms 86
Figure 3.8. Effect of Public Investment on Output in Emerging Market and Developing Economies 86
Figure 3.9. Model Simulations: Effect of Public Investment in Advanced Economies
in the Current Scenario 88
Figure 3.10. Model Simulations: Effect of Public Investment in Advanced Economies––
Role of Monetary Policy, Efficiency, and Return on Public Capita l 89
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WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK: LEGACIES, CLOUDS, UNCERTAINTIES
Figure 3.11. Model Simulations: Effect of Public Investment in Advanced Economies
and Emerging Markets 90
Figure 3.12. Evolution of Public Capital Stock and Public Investment 91
Figure 3.13. Effect of Public Investment Shocks on Output, Recessions versus Expansions:
Robustness Checks 96
Figure 3.14. Effect of Public Investment Shocks on Output, High versus Low Efficiency:
Robustness Checks 96
Figure 3.15. Effect of Changes in Public Investment in Advanced Economies 97
Figure 3.16. Distribution of Public Investment Booms over Time 98
Figure 3.17. Output and Public Debt in the Aftermath of Public Investment Booms:
Robustness Checks 99
Figure 3.18. Output and Public Debt in the Aftermath of Public Investment Booms:
Role of Natural Resources 99
Figure 3.1.1. Japan: Public Investment and Growth 103
Figure 3.1.2. Japan: Budget and Implementation of Public Investment 103
Figure 3.2.1. Public Efficiency Measured by Efficiency Frontiers 105
Figure 3.2.2. Public Investment Management Index Scores in Emerging Markets
and Low-Income Countries 106
Figure 3.3.1. General Government Assets and Liabilities, 2012 107
Figure 3.4.1. Role of Type of Financing in Scaling Up Public Investment in Low-Income Countries 108
Figure 3.4.2. Role of Improving Public Investment Efficiency in Low-Income Countries 109
Figure 3.5.1. Fiscal Policies and Public Investment 110
Figure 4.1. Global Current Account (“Flow”) Imbalances 117
Figure 4.2. Largest Deficit Economies, 2006 and 2013 119
Figure 4.3. Largest Surplus Economies, 2006 and 2013 119
Figure 4.4. Key Indicators of External Adjustment, 2006 Episode 120
Figure 4.5. Growth of Domestic Demand Relative to Trading Partners versus 2006 Current Account 123
Figure 4.6. Change in Real Effective Exchange Rate (CPI Based) versus 2006 Current Account 123
Figure 4.7. Changes in Domestic Demand and Current Account 124
Figure 4.8. Changes in Real Effective Exchange Rate and Current Account 124
Figure 4.9. Current Account Balances, Cyclically Adjusted and Unadjusted 126
Figure 4.10. Largest Deficit and Surplus Economies: Current Account Gaps 127
Figure 4.11. Understanding Changes in Distortions Using External Balance Assessment
Regressions, 2006 versus 2013 128
Figure 4.12. Global Net Foreign Assets (“Stock”) Imbalances 131
Figure 4.13. Gross Foreign Assets and Liabilities 131
Figure 4.14. Adjustment in Net Foreign Assets versus Current Account Balance 132
Figure 4.15. Global Current Account Imbalances 134
Figure 4.16. Global Net Foreign Asset Imbalances 134
Figure 4.17. Determining Net Foreign Asset Sustainability 135
Figure 4.18. Largest Deficit/Debtor Economies: Current Account versus
Net Foreign Assets, 2006, 2013, and 2019 135
Figure 4.1.1. Global Current Account Imbalances in Absolute Terms 146
Figure 4.1.2. Historical Decomposition of Current Account Adjustment 148
Figure 4.2.1. Current Account Balances 150
Figure 4.2.2. Real GDP 151
Figure 4.2.3. Real Domestic Demand Growth 151
Figure 4.2.4. Real External Demand Growth 152
Figure 4.2.5. Real Effective Exchange Rates (CPI Based) 152
Figure 4.2.6. Exports and Imports as a Share of GDP 153
Figure 4.2.7. Real Exports, Imports, and Foreign GDP 153
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ASSUMPTIONS AND CONVENTIONS
A number of assumptions have been adopted for the projections presented in the World Economic Outlook (WEO). It
has been assumed that real effective exchange rates remained constant at their average levels during July 30–August 27,
2014, except for those for the currencies participating in the European exchange rate mechanism II (ERM II), which are
assumed to have remained constant in nominal terms relative to the euro; that established policies of national authorities
will be maintained (for specific assumptions about fiscal and monetary policies for selected economies, see Box A1 in the
Statistical Appendix); that the average price of oil will be $102.76 a barrel in 2014 and $99.36 a barrel in 2015 and will
remain unchanged in real terms over the medium term; that the six-month London interbank offered rate (LIBOR) on
U.S. dollar deposits will average 0.4 percent in 2014 and 0.7 percent in 2015; that the three-month euro deposit rate
will average 0.2 percent in 2014 and 0.1 percent in 2015; and that the six-month Japanese yen deposit rate will yield on
average 0.2 percent in 2014 and 2015. These are, of course, working hypotheses rather than forecasts, and the uncertain-
ties surrounding them add to the margin of error that would in any event be involved in the projections. The estimates
and projections are based on statistical information available through September 19, 2014.
The following conventions are used throughout the WEO:
. . . to indicate that data are not available or not applicable;
– between years or months (for example, 2013–14 or January–June) to indicate the years or months cov-
ered, including the beginning and ending years or months;
/ between years or months (for example, 2013/14) to indicate a fiscal or financial year.
“Billion” means a thousand million; “trillion” means a thousand billion.
“Basis points” refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are equivalent to ¼ of 1
percentage point).
Data refer to calendar years, except in the case of a few countries that use fiscal years. Please refer to Table F in
the Statistical Appendix, which lists the economies with exceptional reporting periods for national accounts and
government finance data for each country.
For some countries, the figures for 2013 and earlier are based on estimates rather than actual outturns. Please
refer to Table G in the Statistical Appendix, which lists the latest actual outturns for the indicators in the national
accounts, prices, government finance, and balance of payments indicators for each country.
The WEO has adopted the sixth edition of the Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual
(BPM6). Notable changes include the following: (1) Merchanting has been reclassified from services to exports of
goods. (2) Manufacturing services on physical inputs owned by others (goods for processing in the BPM5) and
maintenance and repair services (repairs on goods in the BPM5) have been reclassified from goods to services.
(3) Migrants’ transfers have been removed from capital transfers in the capital account because a change in owner-
ship is no longer imputed. (4) Reverse investment in direct investment has been reclassified so as to present assets
and liabilities on a gross basis. (5) A separate financial derivatives category is now included in the financial account,
whereas previously it was a subitem under portfolio investment. In addition, the conventional sign for increases in
assets (and liabilities) within the financial account is now positive, and balances are now computed as net acquisi-
tion of financial assets minus net incurrence of financial liabilities.
With the adoption of the BPM6, the Statistical Appendix tables of the WEO have also been revised. Table A13,
which previously summarized data on net and private financial flows in emerging market and developing econo-
mies, is now a Summary of Financial Account Balances. Table A14 has been deleted because of data constraints.
Table A15, Summary of Sources and Uses of World Savings, is now A14, Summary of Net Lending and Borrow-
ing, and Table A16 has been renumbered as A15. Part B of the Statistical Appendix contains most of the same
tables as previous WEO reports. Tables B16–B21 have been absorbed into a new Table B15, Summary of Current
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