World Crisis by Winston S Churchill

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Title: The World Crisis, Volume I (of VI)

Author: Winston S. Churchill

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THE WORLD CRISIS

BY

THE RT. HON. WINSTON S. CHURCHILL

FIRST LORD OF THE ADMIRALTY

1911 TO 1915

TORONTO

THE MACMILLAN COMPANY OF CANADA, Ltd.

At Martin’s House

MCMXXIII

Copyright, 1923, by

CHARLES SCRIBNER’S SONS

Printed in the United States of America

Published April, 1923

F

PREFACE

rom October 25, 1911, to May 28, 1915, I was, in the words of the Royal Letters Patent and Orders
in Council, “responsible to Crown and Parliament for all the business of the Admiralty.” This period

comprised the final stage in the preparation against a war with Germany; the mobilisation and
concentration of the Fleet before the outbreak; the organisation of the Blockade; the gathering in 1914 of
the Imperial forces from all over the world; the clearance from the oceans of all the German cruisers and
commerce destroyers; the reinforcement of the Fleet by new construction in 1914 and 1915; the
frustration and defeat of the first German submarine attack upon merchant shipping in 1915; and the
initiation of the enterprise against the Dardanelles. It was marked before the war by a complete revision
of British naval war plans; by the building of a fast division of battleships armed with 15–inch guns and
driven by oil fuel; by the proposals, rejected by Germany, for a naval holiday; and by the largest supplies
till then ever voted by Parliament for the British Fleet. It was distinguished during the war for the
victories of the Heligoland Bight, of the Falkland Islands and the Dogger Bank; and for the attempt to
succour Antwerp. It was memorable for the disaster to the three cruisers off the Dutch Coast; the loss of
Admiral Cradock’s squadron at Coronel; and the failure of the Navy to force the Dardanelles.

Many accounts of these matters have been published both here and abroad. Most of the principal

actors have unfolded their story. Lord Fisher, Lord Jellicoe, Lord French, Lord Kitchener’s biographer,
Lord Haig’s Staff, and many others of less importance, have with the utmost fullness and freedom given
their account of these and other war-time events and of the controversies arising out of them. The
German accounts are numerous and authoritative. Admirals von Tirpitz and Scheer have told their tales.
Sir Julian Corbett, the Official Historian, has in a thousand pages recorded the conduct of the naval war
during the whole of my administration. Eight years have passed since I quitted the Admiralty.

In all these circumstances I feel it both my right and my duty to set forth the manner in which I

endeavoured to discharge my share in these hazardous responsibilities. In doing so I have adhered to
certain strict rules. I have made no important statement of fact relating to naval operations or Admiralty
business, on which I do not possess unimpeachable documentary proof. I have made or implied no
criticism of any decision or action taken or neglected by others unless I can prove that I had expressed
the same opinion in writing before the event.

Many of the accounts which I have mentioned above enjoy the great advantage of having been written

some considerable time after the events with which they deal, when the results of schemes and
operations set on foot in the early days of the war could be clearly seen, and when the ideas and
impressions of 1914 and 1915 could be reviewed in the broad and certain experience and science of 1918
and after. There are no doubt obvious conveniences in this way of treating the subject. Actors in these
great situations are able to dwell with certainty upon those of their opinions and directions which have
effectively been vindicated by the subsequent course of the war, and they are not, on the other hand,
obliged to disturb the public mind by dwelling on any errors of neglect or commission into which they
may possibly have been betrayed. I have followed a different method.

In every case where the interests of the State allow, I have printed the actual memoranda, directions,

minutes, telegrams or letters written by me at the time, irrespective of whether these documents have
been vindicated or falsified by the march of history and of time. The only excisions of relevant matter
from the documents have been made to avoid needlessly hurting the feelings of individuals, or the pride
of friendly nations. For such reasons here and there sentences have been softened or suppressed. But
the whole story is recorded as it happened, by the actual counsels offered and orders given in the fierce
turmoil of each day. The principal minutes by which Admiralty business was conducted embody in every
case decisions for which, as the highest executive authority in the department, I was directly
responsible, and are in all cases expressed in my own words. I am equally accountable, together with the
First Sea Lord at the time, for the principal telegrams which moved fleets, squadrons and individual
ships, all of which (unless the contrary appears) bear my initials as their final sanction.

The number of minutes and telegrams published in these volumes is, of course, only a fraction of the

whole. Restricted space and the fear of wearying the reader have excluded much. But lest it should be
thought that there have been any material suppressions, or that what is published does not truly
represent what occurred, or the way things were done, I affirm my own willingness to see every
document of Admiralty administration for which I am responsible made public provided it is presented
in its fair context. Sometimes a dozen or even a score of important decisions had to be taken in a single
day. Complicated directions and recommendations were given in writing as fast as they could be
dictated, and were acted upon without recall thereafter. Nothing of any consequence was done by me by
word of mouth. A complete record therefore exists both of executive and administrative action.

If in the great number of decisions and orders which these pages recount and which deal with so many

violent and controversial affairs, mistakes can be found which led to mishap, the fault is mine. If, on the
other hand, favourable results were achieved, that should be counted to some extent as an offset. Where
the decision lay outside my powers and was taken contrary to my advice, I rest on the written record of
my warning. Should it be objected that in any of these matters, many of them so highly technical, a
landsman and layman could form no valuable opinion, I point to the documents themselves. They can be
judged as they stand, but lest, on the other hand, it should be thought that I am seeking to claim credit
which is not mine, it must be remembered that throughout this period I enjoyed the assistance, loyal,
spontaneous and unstinted, of the best brains of the Royal Navy, that every treasure of every branch of
the Admiralty and the Fleet was lavished upon my instruction, and that I had only to apply my own
reason and instinct to the arguments of those who I believe stood in the foremost rank of the naval

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Winston S. Churchill

experts of the world.

Taking a general view in after years of the transactions of this terrific epoch, I commend with some

confidence the story as a whole to the judgment of my countrymen. It has long been the fashion to
disparage the policy and actions of the Ministers who bore the burden of power in the fateful years
before the War, and who faced the extraordinary perils of its outbreak and opening phases. Abroad, in
Allied, in neutral, and above all, in enemy States, their work is regarded with respect and even
admiration. At home, criticism has been its only meed. I hope that this account may be agreeable to
those at least who wish to think well of our country, of its naval service, of its governing institutions, of its
political life and public men; and that they will feel that perhaps after all Britain and her Empire have not
been so ill-guided through the great convulsions as it is customary to declare.

Lastly, I must record my thanks to Vice-Admiral Thomas Jackson and others who have aided me in

the preparation and revision of this work, especially in its technical aspect, and to those who have given
me permission to quote correspondence or conversations in which they were concerned.
London, January, 1923.

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CONTENTS

CHAPTER

PAGE

I
The Vials of Wrath
1

II
Milestones to Armageddon
19

III
The Crisis of Agadir
38

IV
Admirals All
68

V
The German Navy Law
95

VI
The Romance of Design
125

VII
The North Sea Front
149

VIII
Ireland and the European Balance
179

IX
The Crisis
203

X
The Mobilisation of the Navy
228

XI
War: The Passage of the Army
247

XII
The Battle in France
281

XIII
On the Oceans
305

XIV
In the Narrow Seas
330

XV
Antwerp
355

XVI
The Channel Ports
391

XVII
The Grand Fleet and the Submarine Alarm
413

XVIII
Coronel and the Falklands
442

XIX
With Fisher at the Admiralty
479

XX
The Bombardment of Scarborough and

Hartlepool
502

XXI
Turkey and the Balkans
522

Appendix A
Naval Staff Training
552

Appendix B
Tables of Fleet Strength
558

Appendix C
Trade Protection
562

Appendix D
Mining
566

Appendix E
First Lord’s Minutes
570

Index
579

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xii

TABLE OF MAPS

AT

PAGE

I
Home Waters
224

II
The Escape of the “Goeben”
274

III
On the Oceans
328

IV
Antwerp and the Belgium Coast
360

V
Coronel and the Falklands
476

VI
The 16th December, 1914
518

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OTHER ILLUSTRATIONS

The Seventeen Points of the First Lord
206

Facsimile of Admiralty’s Instructions to the

Commander-in-Chief at Devonport

facing

page
474

I

CHAPTER I

THE VIALS OF WRATH

1870–1904

“To put on record what were their grounds of feud.”

Herodotus.

The Unending Task—Ruthless War—The Victorian Age—National Pride—National Accountability—The Franco-

German Feud—Bismarck’s Apprehension—His Precautions and Alliances—The Bismarckian Period and
System—The Young Emperor and Caprivi—The Franco-Russian Alliance, 1892—The Balance of Power—
Anglo-German Ties—Anglo-German Estrangement—Germany and the South African War—The Beginnings
of the German Navy—The Birth of a Challenge—The Anglo-Japanese Alliance—The Russo-Japanese War—
Consequences—The Anglo-French Agreement of 1904—Lord Rosebery’s Comment—The Triple Entente—
Degeneration in Turkey and Austria—The Long Descent—The Sinister Hypothesis.

t was the custom in the palmy days of Queen Victoria for statesmen to expatiate upon the glories of
the British Empire, and to rejoice in that protecting Providence which had preserved us through so

many dangers and brought us at length into a secure and prosperous age. Little did they know that the
worst perils had still to be encountered and that the greatest triumphs were yet to be won.

Children were taught of the Great War against Napoleon as the culminating effort in the history of the

British peoples, and they looked on Waterloo and Trafalgar as the supreme achievements of British arms
by land and sea. These prodigious victories, eclipsing all that had gone before, seemed the fit and
predestined ending to the long drama of our island race, which had advanced over a thousand years from
small and weak beginnings to a foremost position in the world. Three separate times in three different
centuries had the British people rescued Europe from a military domination. Thrice had the Low
Countries been assailed; by Spain, by the French Monarchy, by the French Empire. Thrice had British
war and policy, often maintained single-handed, overthrown the aggressor. Always at the outset the
strength of the enemy had seemed overwhelming, always the struggle had been prolonged through
many years and across awful hazards, always the victory had at last been won: and the last of all the
victories had been the greatest of all, gained after the most ruinous struggle and over the most
formidable foe.

Surely that was the end of the tale as it was so often the end of the book. History showed the rise,

culmination, splendour, transition and decline of States and Empires. It seemed inconceivable that the
same series of tremendous events through which since the days of Queen Elizabeth we had three times
made our way successfully, should be repeated a fourth time and on an immeasurably larger scale. Yet
that is what has happened, and what we have lived to see.

The Great War through which we have passed differed from all ancient wars in the immense power of

the combatants and their fearful agencies of destruction, and from all modern wars in the utter
ruthlessness with which it was fought. All the horrors of all the ages were brought together, and not only
armies but whole populations were thrust into the midst of them. The mighty educated States involved
conceived with reason that their very existence was at stake. Germany having let Hell loose kept well in
the van of terror; but she was followed step by step by the desperate and ultimately avenging nations
she had assailed. Every outrage against humanity or international law was repaid by reprisals often on a
greater scale and of longer duration. No truce or parley mitigated the strife of the armies. The wounded
died between the lines: the dead mouldered into the soil. Merchant ships and neutral ships and hospital
ships were sunk on the seas and all on board left to their fate, or killed as they swam. Every effort was
made to starve whole nations into submission without regard to age or sex. Cities and monuments were
smashed by artillery. Bombs from the air were cast down indiscriminately. Poison gas in many forms
stifled or seared the soldiers. Liquid fire was projected upon their bodies. Men fell from the air in flames,
or were smothered, often slowly, in the dark recesses of the sea. The fighting strength of armies was
limited only by the manhood of their countries. Europe and large parts of Asia and Africa became one
vast battlefield on which after years of struggle not armies but nations broke and ran. When all was over,
Torture and Cannibalism were the only two expedients that the civilised, scientific, Christian States had
been able to deny themselves: and these were of doubtful utility.

But nothing daunted the valiant heart of man. Son of the Stone Age, vanquisher of nature with all her

trials and monsters, he met the awful and self-inflicted agony with new reserves of fortitude. Freed in
the main by his intelligence from mediæval fears, he marched to death with sombre dignity. His nervous
system was found in the twentieth century capable of enduring physical and moral stresses before which
the simpler natures of primeval times would have collapsed. Again and again to the hideous
bombardment, again and again from the hospital to the front, again and again to the hungry submarines,
he strode unflinching. And withal, as an individual, preserved through these torments the glories of a
reasonable and compassionate mind.

In the beginning of the twentieth century men were everywhere unconscious of the rate at which the

world was growing. It required the convulsion of the war to awaken the nations to the knowledge of their
strength. For a year after the war had begun hardly anyone understood how terrific, how almost
inexhaustible were the resources in force, in substance, in virtue, behind every one of the combatants.

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The vials of wrath were full: but so were the reservoirs of power. From the end of the Napoleonic Wars
and still more after 1870, the accumulation of wealth and health by every civilised community had been
practically unchecked. Here and there a retarding episode had occurred. The waves had recoiled after
advancing: but the mounting tides still flowed. And when the dread signal of Armageddon was made,
mankind was found to be many times stronger in valour, in endurance, in brains, in science, in apparatus,
in organisation, not only than it had ever been before, but than even its most audacious optimists had
dared to dream.

The Victorian Age was the age of accumulation; not of a mere piling up of material wealth, but of the

growth and gathering in every land of all those elements and factors which go to make up the power of
States. Education spread itself over the broad surface of the millions. Science had opened the limitless
treasure-house of nature. Door after door had been unlocked. One dim mysterious gallery after another
had been lighted up, explored, made free for all: and every gallery entered gave access to at least two
more. Every morning when the world woke up, some new machinery had started running. Every night
while the world had supper, it was running still. It ran on while all men slept.

And the advance of the collective mind was at a similar pace. Disraeli said of the early years of the

nineteenth century, “In those days England was for the few—and for the very few.” Every year of Queen
Victoria’s reign saw those limits broken and extended. Every year brought in new thousands of people in
private stations who thought about their own country and its story and its duties towards other
countries, to the world and to the future, and understood the greatness of the responsibilities of which
they were the heirs. Every year diffused a wider measure of material comfort among the higher ranks of
labour. Substantial progress was made in mitigating the hard lot of the mass. Their health improved,
their lives and the lives of their children were brightened, their stature grew, their securities against
some of their gravest misfortunes were multiplied, their numbers greatly increased.

Thus when all the trumpets sounded, every class and rank had something to give to the need of the

State. Some gave their science and some their wealth, some gave their business energy and drive, and
some their wonderful personal prowess, and some their patient strength or patient weakness. But none
gave more, or gave more readily, than the common man or woman who had nothing but a precarious
week’s wages between them and poverty, and owned little more than the slender equipment of a
cottage, and the garments in which they stood upright. Their love and pride of country, their loyalty to
the symbols with which they were familiar, their keen sense of right and wrong as they saw it, led them
to outface and endure perils and ordeals the like of which men had not known on earth.

But these developments, these virtues, were no monopoly of any one nation. In every free country,

great or small, the spirit of patriotism and nationality grew steadily; and in every country, bond or free,
the organisation and structure into which men were fitted by the laws, gathered and armed this
sentiment. Far more than their vices, the virtues of nations ill-directed or mis-directed by their rulers,
became the cause of their own undoing and of the general catastrophe. And these rulers, in Germany,
Austria, and Italy; in France, Russia or Britain, how far were they to blame? Was there any man of real
eminence and responsibility whose devil heart conceived and willed this awful thing? One rises from the
study of the causes of the Great War with a prevailing sense of the defective control of individuals upon
world fortunes. It has been well said, “there is always more error than design in human affairs.” The
limited minds even of the ablest men, their disputed authority, the climate of opinion in which they
dwell, their transient and partial contributions to the mighty problem, that problem itself so far beyond
their compass, so vast in scale and detail, so changing in its aspect—all this must surely be considered
before the complete condemnation of the vanquished or the complete acquittal of the victors can be
pronounced. Events also got on to certain lines, and no one could get them off again. Germany clanked
obstinately, recklessly, awkwardly towards the crater and dragged us all in with her. But fierce
resentment dwelt in France, and in Russia there were wheels within wheels. Could we in England
perhaps by some effort, by some sacrifice of our material interests, by some compulsive gesture, at once
of friendship and command, have reconciled France and Germany in time and formed that grand
association on which alone the peace and glory of Europe would be safe? I cannot tell. I only know that
we tried our best to steer our country through the gathering dangers of the armed peace without
bringing her to war or others to war, and when these efforts failed, we drove through the tempest
without bringing her to destruction.

There is no need here to trace the ancient causes of quarrel between the Germans and the French, to

catalogue the conflicts with which they have scarred the centuries, nor to appraise the balance of injury
or of provocation on one side or the other. When on the 18th of January, 1871, the triumph of the
Germans was consolidated by the Proclamation of the German Empire in the Palace of Versailles, a new
volume of European history was opened. “Europe,” it was said, “has lost a mistress and has gained a
master.” A new and mighty State had come into being, sustained by an overflowing population, equipped
with science and learning, organised for war and crowned with victory. France, stripped of Alsace and
Lorraine, beaten, impoverished, divided and alone, condemned to a decisive and increasing numerical
inferiority, fell back to ponder in shade and isolation on her departed glories.

But the chiefs of the German Empire were under no illusions as to the formidable character and

implacable resolves of their prostrate antagonist. “What we gained by arms in half a year,” said Moltke,
“we must protect by arms for half a century, if it is not to be torn from us again.” Bismarck, more
prudent still, would never have taken Lorraine. Forced by military pressure to assume the double
burden against his better judgment, he exhibited from the outset and in every act of his policy an
extreme apprehension. Restrained by the opinion of the world, and the decided attitude of Great Britain,
from striking down a reviving France in 1875, he devoted his whole power and genius to the construction
of an elaborate system of alliances designed to secure the continued ascendancy of Germany and the

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maintenance of her conquests. He knew the quarrel with France was irreconcilable except at a price
which Germany would never consent to pay. He understood that the abiding enmity of a terrific people
would be fixed on his new-built Empire. Everything else must be subordinated to that central fact.
Germany could afford no other antagonisms. In 1879 he formed an alliance with Austria. Four years
later this was expanded into the Triple Alliance between Germany, Austria and Italy. Roumania was
brought into this system by a secret alliance in 1883. Not only must there be Insurance; there must be
Reinsurance. What he feared most was a counteralliance between France and Russia; and none of these
extending arrangements met this danger. His alliance with Austria indeed, if left by itself, would
naturally tend to draw France and Russia together. Could he not make a league of the three Emperors—
Germany, Austria, and Russia united? There at last was overwhelming strength and enduring safety.
When in 1887 after six years, this supreme ideal of Bismarck was ruptured by the clash of Russian and
Austrian interests in the Balkans, he turned—as the best means still open to him—to his Reinsurance
Treaty with Russia. Germany, by this arrangement, secured herself against becoming the object of an
aggressive combination by France and Russia. Russia on the other hand was reassured that the Austro-
German alliance would not be used to undermine her position in the Balkans.

All these cautious and sapient measures were designed with the object of enabling Germany to enjoy

her victory in peace. The Bismarckian system, further, always included the principle of good relations
with Great Britain. This was necessary, for it was well known that Italy would never willingly commit
herself to anything that would bring her into war with Great Britain, and had, as the world now knows,
required this fact to be specifically stated in the original and secret text of the Triple Alliance. To this
Alliance in its early years Great Britain had been wholly favourable. Thus France was left to nurse her
scars alone; and Germany, assured in her predominance on the Continent, was able to take the fullest
advantage of the immense industrial developments which characterised the close of the nineteenth
century. The policy of Germany further encouraged France as a consolation to develop her colonial
possessions in order to take her thoughts off Europe, and incidentally to promote a convenient rivalry
and friction with Great Britain.

This arrangement, under which Europe lived rigidly but peacefully for twenty years, and Germany

waxed in power and splendour, was ended in 1890 with the fall of Bismarck. The Iron Chancellor was
gone, and new forces began to assail the system he had maintained with consummate ability so long.
There was a constant danger of conflagration in the Balkans and in the Near East through Turkish
misgovernment. The rising tides of pan-Slavism and the strong anti-German currents in Russia began to
wash against the structure of the Reinsurance Treaty. Lastly, German ambitions grew with German
prosperity. Not content with the hegemony of Europe, she sought a colonial domain. Already the greatest
of military Empires, she began increasingly to turn her thoughts to the sea. The young Emperor, freed
from Bismarck and finding in Count Caprivi, and the lesser men who succeeded him, complacent
coadjutors, began gaily to dispense with the safeguards and precautions by which the safety of Germany
had been buttressed. While the quarrel with France remained open and undying, the Reinsurance
Treaty with Russia was dropped, and later on the naval rivalry with Britain was begun. These two
sombre decisions rolled forward slowly as the years unfolded. Their consequences became apparent in
due season. In 1892 the event against which the whole policy of Bismarck had been directed came to
pass. The Dual Alliance was signed between Russia and France. Although the effects were not
immediately visible, the European situation was in fact transformed. Henceforward, for the undisputed
but soberly exercised predominance of Germany, there was substituted a balance of power. Two vast
combinations, each disposing of enormous military resources, dwelt together at first side by side but
gradually face to face.

Although the groupings of the great Powers had thus been altered sensibly to the disadvantage of

Germany, there was in this alteration nothing that threatened her with war. The abiding spirit of France
had never abandoned the dream of recovering the lost provinces, but the prevailing temper of the
French nation was pacific, and all classes remained under the impression of the might of Germany and of
the terrible consequences likely to result from war.

Moreover, the French were never sure of Russia in a purely Franco-German quarrel. True, there was

the Treaty; but the Treaty to become operative required aggression on the part of Germany. What
constitutes aggression? At what point in a dispute between two heavily armed parties, does one side or
the other become the aggressor? At any rate there was a wide field for discretionary action on the part of
Russia. Of all these matters she would be the judge, and she would be the judge at a moment when it
might be said that the Russian people would be sent to die in millions over a quarrel between France and
Germany in which they had no direct interest. The word of the Tsar was indeed a great assurance. But
Tsars who tried to lead their nations, however honourably, into unpopular wars might disappear. The
policy of a great people, if hung too directly upon the person of a single individual, was liable to be
changed by his disappearance. France, therefore, could never feel certain that if on any occasion she
resisted German pressure and war resulted, Russia would march.

Such was the ponderous balance which had succeeded the unquestioned ascendancy of Germany.

Outside both systems rested England, secure in an overwhelming and as yet unchallenged, naval
supremacy. It was evident that the position of the British Empire received added importance from the
fact that adhesion to either Alliance would decide the predominance of strength. But Lord Salisbury
showed no wish to exploit this favourable situation. He maintained steadily the traditional friendly
attitude towards Germany combined with a cool detachment from Continental entanglements.

It had been easy for Germany to lose touch with Russia; but the alienation of England was a far longer

process. So many props and ties had successively to be demolished. British suspicions of Russia in Asia,

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the historic antagonism to France, memories of Blenheim, of Minden and of Waterloo, the continued
disputes with France in Egypt and in the Colonial sphere, the intimate business connexions between
Germany and England, the relationship of the Royal Families—all these constituted a profound
association between the British Empire and the leading State in that Triple Alliance. It was no part of
British policy to obstruct the new-born Colonial aspirations of Germany, and in more than one instance,
as at Samoa, we actively assisted them. With a complete detachment from strategic considerations, Lord
Salisbury exchanged Heligoland for Zanzibar. Still even before the fall of Bismarck the Germans did not
seem pleasant diplomatic comrades. They appeared always to be seeking to enlist our aid and reminding
us that they were our only friend. To emphasise this they went even farther. They sought in minor ways
to embroil us with France and Russia. Each year the Wilhelmstrasse looked inquiringly to the Court of St.
James’s for some new service or concession which should keep Germany’s diplomatic goodwill alive for a
further period. Each year they made mischief for us with France and Russia, and pointed the moral of
how unpopular Great Britain was, what powerful enemies she had, and how lucky she was to find a
friend in Germany. Where would she be in the councils of Europe if German assistance were withdrawn,
or if Germany threw her influence into the opposing combination? These manifestations, prolonged for
nearly twenty years, produced very definite sensations of estrangement in the minds of the rising
generation at the British Foreign Office.

But none of these woes of diplomatists deflected the steady course of British policy. The Colonial

expansion of Germany was viewed with easy indifference by the British Empire. In spite of their rivalry
in trade, there grew up a far more important commercial connexion between Britain and Germany. In
Europe we were each other’s best customers. Even the German Emperor’s telegram to President Kruger
on the Jameson Raid in 1896, which we now know to have been no personal act but a decision of the
German Government, produced only a temporary ebullition of anger. All the German outburst of rage
against England during the Boer War, and such attempts as were made to form a European coalition
against us, did not prevent Mr. Chamberlain in 1901 from advocating an alliance with Germany, or the
British Foreign Office from proposing in the same year to make the Alliance between Britain and Japan
into a Triple Alliance including Germany. During this period we had at least as serious differences with
France as with Germany, and sufficient naval superiority not to be seriously disquieted by either. We
stood equally clear of the Triple and of the Dual Alliance. We had no intention of being drawn into a
Continental quarrel. No effort by France to regain her lost provinces appealed to the British public or to
any political party. The idea of a British Army fighting in Europe amid the mighty hosts of the Continent
was by all dismissed as utterly absurd. Only a menace to the very life of the British nation would stir the
British Empire from its placid and tolerant detachment from Continental affairs. But that menace
Germany was destined to supply.

“Among the Great Powers,” said Moltke in his Military Testament, “England necessarily requires a

strong ally on the Continent. She would not find one which corresponds better to all her interests than a
United Germany, that can never make claim to the command of the sea.”

From 1873 to 1900 the German Navy was avowedly not intended to provide for the possibility of “a

naval war against great naval Powers.” Now in 1900 came a Fleet Law of a very different kind. “For the
protection of trade and the Colonies,” declared the preamble of this document, “there is only one thing
that will suffice, namely, a strong Battle Fleet.”

In order to protect German trade and commerce under existing conditions, only one thing will suffice,

namely, Germany must possess a battle fleet of such a strength that, even for the most powerful naval
adversary, a war would involve such risks as to make that Power’s own supremacy doubtful.

For this purpose it is not absolutely necessary that the German Fleet should be as strong as that of the

greatest naval Power, for, as a rule, a great naval Power will not be in a position to concentrate all its
forces against us. Even if it were successful in bringing against us a much superior force, the defeat of a
strong German Fleet would so considerably weaken the enemy that, in spite of the victory that might be
achieved, his own supremacy would no longer be assured by a fleet of sufficient strength.

For the attainment of this object, viz., protection of our trade and colonies by assuring peace with

honour, Germany requires, according to the strength of the great naval Powers and with regard to our
tactical formations, two double squadrons of first-class battleships, with the necessary attendant
cruisers, torpedo boats, etc. Since the Fleet Law provides for only two squadrons, the construction of
third and fourth squadrons is proposed. Two of these four squadrons will form one fleet. The tactical
formation of the second fleet should be similar to that of the first as provided for in the Fleet Law.

And again:—
In addition to the increase of the Home Fleet an increase of the foreign service ships is also

necessary.... In order to estimate the importance of an increase in our foreign service ships, it must be
realised that they represent the German Navy abroad, and that to them often falls the task of gathering
fruits which have ripened as a result of the naval strength of the Empire embodied in the Home Battle
Fleet.

And again:—
If the necessity for so strong a Fleet for Germany be recognised, it cannot be denied that the honour

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and welfare of the Fatherland authoritatively demand that the Home Fleet be brought up to the
requisite strength as soon as possible.

The determination of the greatest military Power on the Continent to become at the same time at

least the second naval Power was an event of first magnitude in world affairs. It would, if carried into full
effect, undoubtedly reproduce those situations which at previous periods in history had proved of such
awful significance to the Islanders of Britain.

Hitherto all British naval arrangements had proceeded on the basis of the two-Power standard,

namely, an adequate superiority over the next two strongest Powers, in those days France and Russia.
The possible addition of a third European Fleet more powerful than either of these two would profoundly
affect the life of Britain. If Germany was going to create a Navy avowedly measured against our own, we
could not afford to remain “in splendid isolation” from the European systems. We must in these
circumstances find a trustworthy friend. We found one in another island Empire situated on the other
side of the globe and also in danger. In 1901 the Alliance was signed between Great Britain and Japan.
Still less could we afford to have dangerous causes of quarrel open both with France and Russia. In 1902
the British Government, under Mr. Balfour and Lord Lansdowne, definitely embarked upon the policy of
settling up our differences with France. Still, before either of these steps were taken the hand was held
out to Germany. She was invited to join with us in the alliance with Japan. She was invited to make a
joint effort to solve the Moroccan problem. Both offers were declined.

In 1904, the war between Russia and Japan broke out. Germany sympathised mainly with Russia;

England stood ready to fulfil her treaty engagements with Japan, while at the same time cultivating good
relations with France. In this posture the Powers awaited the result of the Far Eastern struggle. It
brought a surprise to all but one. The military and naval overthrow of Russia by Japan and the internal
convulsions of the Russian State produced profound changes in the European situation. Although
German influence had leaned against Japan, she felt herself enormously strengthened by the Russian
collapse. Her Continental predominance was restored. Her self-assertion in every sphere became
sensibly and immediately pronounced. France, on the other hand, weakened and once again, for the time
being, isolated and in real danger, became increasingly anxious for an Entente with England. England,
whose statesmen with penetrating eye alone in Europe had truly measured the martial power of Japan,
gained remarkably in strength and security. Japan, her new ally, was triumphant: France, her ancient
enemy, sought her friendship: the German fleet was still only a-building, and meanwhile all the British
battleships in China seas could now be safely brought home.

The settlement of outstanding differences between England and France proceeded, and at last in 1904

the Anglo-French Agreement was signed. There were various clauses; but the essence of the compact
was that the French desisted from opposition to British interests in Egypt, and Britain gave a general
support to the French views about Morocco. This agreement was acclaimed by the Conservative forces
in England, among whom the idea of the German menace had already taken root. It was also hailed
somewhat short-sightedly by Liberal statesmen as a step to secure general peace by clearing away
misunderstandings and differences with our traditional enemy. It was therefore almost universally
welcomed. Only one profound observer raised his voice against it. “My mournful and supreme
conviction,” said Lord Rosebery, “is that this agreement is much more likely to lead to complications
than to peace.” This unwelcome comment was indignantly spurned from widely different standpoints by
both British parties, and general censure fell upon its author.

Still, England and all that she stood for had left her isolation, and had reappeared in Europe on the

opposite side to Germany. For the first time since 1870 Germany had to take into consideration a Power
outside her system which was in no way amenable to threats, and was not unable if need be to encounter
her single-handed. The gesture which was to sweep Delcassé from power in 1905, the apparition “in
shining armour” which was to quell Russia in 1908, could procure no such compliance from the
independent Island girt with her Fleet and mistress of the seas.

Up to this moment the Triple Alliance had on the whole been stronger than France and Russia.

Although war against these two Powers would have been a formidable undertaking for Germany, Austria
and Italy, its ultimate issue did not seem doubtful. But if the weight of Britain were thrown into the
adverse scale and that of Italy withdrawn from the other, then for the first time since 1870 Germany
could not feel certain that she was on the stronger side. Would she submit to it? Would the growing,
bounding ambitions and assertions of the new German Empire consent to a situation in which, very
politely no doubt, very gradually perhaps, but still very surely, the impression would be conveyed that
her will was no longer the final law of Europe? If Germany and her Emperor would accept the same sort
of restraint that France, Russia and England had long been accustomed to, and would live within her
rights as an equal in a freer and easier world, all would be well. But would she? Would she tolerate the
gathering under an independent standard of nations outside her system, strong enough to examine her
claims only as the merits appealed to them, and to resist aggression without fear? The history of the
next ten years was to supply the answer.

Side by side with these slowly marshalling and steadily arming antagonisms between the greatest

Powers, processes of degeneration were at work in weaker Empires almost equally dangerous to peace.
Forces were alive in Turkey which threatened with destruction the old regime and its abuses on which
Germany had chosen to lean. The Christian States of the Balkans, growing stronger year by year,
awaited an opportunity to liberate their compatriots still writhing under Turkish misrule. The growth of
national sentiment in every country created fierce strains and stresses in the uneasily knit and
crumbling Austro-Hungarian Empire. The Balkan States saw also in this direction kinsmen to rescue,

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territory to recover, and unities to achieve. Italy watched with ardent eyes the decay of Turkey and the
unrest of Austria. It was certain that from all these regions of the South and of the East there would
come a succession of events deeply agitating both to Russia and to Germany.

To create the unfavourable conditions for herself in which Germany afterwards brought about the

war, many acts of supreme unwisdom on the part of her rulers were nevertheless still necessary. France
must be kept in a state of continued apprehension. The Russian nation, not the Russian Court alone,
must be stung by some violent affront inflicted in their hour of weakness. The slow, deep, restrained
antagonism of the British Empire must be roused by the continuous and repeated challenge to the sea
power by which it lived. Then and then only could those conditions be created under which Germany by
an act of aggression would bring into being against her, a combination strong enough to resist and
ultimately to overcome her might. There was still a long road to travel before the Vials of Wrath were
full. For ten years we were to journey anxiously along that road.

It was for a time the fashion to write as if the British Government during these ten years were either

entirely unconscious of the approaching danger or had a load of secret matters and deep forebodings on
their minds hidden altogether from the thoughtless nation. In fact, however, neither of these
alternatives, taken separately, was true; and there is a measure of truth in both of them taken together.

The British Government and the Parliaments out of which it sprang, did not believe in the approach of

a great war, and were determined to prevent it; but at the same time the sinister hypothesis was
continually present in their thoughts, and was repeatedly brought to the attention of Ministers by
disquieting incidents and tendencies.

During the whole of those ten years this duality and discordance were the keynote of British politics;

and those whose duty it was to watch over the safety of the country lived simultaneously in two different
worlds of thought. There was the actual visible world with its peaceful activities and cosmopolitan aims;
and there was a hypothetical world, a world “beneath the threshold,” as it were, a world at one moment
utterly fantastic, at the next seeming about to leap into reality—a world of monstrous shadows moving in
convulsive combinations through vistas of fathomless catastrophe.

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