World agricultural production

34 Pages·2002·7.6 MB·English

Historic, archived document
Do not assume content reflects current
scientific knowledge, policies, or practices.

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United States
World Agricultural
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Production
Agricultural
Service
Circular Series
WAP 06-02
June 2002
Com Production Changes of Major Competitors
1998 □ 1999 a 2000 □ 2001 □ 2002
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China Brazil Argentina Hungary
Projected foreign corn production dropped this month by 1.2 million tons or 33 percent to
361.4 million tons, due to a drought-driven decrease in parts of Romania and Hungary.
Major corn exporters are taking different paths for 2002/03. Argentina and Hungary are
expected to drop production, while a larger corn crop is expected in China and Brazil. The
net effect is an increase in corn output by 10.4 million tons for these four countries,
compared to 2001/02. China’s corn area is projected to increase 0.5 million hectares from a
year earlier due to continued strong protection prices in Manchuria. Yields are expected to
rebound from the drought-reduced levels of the past two seasons. Argentina’s corn area is
expected to decrease 11 percent from last season. The high inflation combined with the 20
percent corn export tax, are expected to dampen the benefits engendered by the devaluation
in Argentina. Brazil’s corn crop is expected to increase by 10 percent from the drought-
affected harvest in 2001/02. Corn area in Brazil is forecast to rebound to near-normal
historical levels, erasing much of the soybean expansion that occurred in key southern states
last year. The bulk of increased acreage is forecast to occur during the main summer crop,
which normally represents about 85 percent of total production. Corn planting in Argentina
and Brazil begins in October. The Hungary corn crop was planted in April and is expected
to be harvested in the late fall.
This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Services’ (FAS) global network of
agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign
source materials; and the results of economic and satellite imagery analysis. Estimates of foreign
area, yield, and production are from the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS,
and are reviewed by USDA’s Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committees. Estimates of U.S.
area, yield, and production are from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers
within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA
estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-387) June 12,
2002.
This report was prepared by the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS/USDA.
The next issue of World Agricultural Production will be released after 3:00 p.m. Eastern time on July
18,2002.
Conversion Table
Metric tons to bushels
Wheat, soybeans MT * 36.7437
Com, sorghum, rye MT * 39.36825
Barley MT * 45.929625
Oats MT * 68.894438
Metric tons to 480-lb bales
Cotton MT* 4.592917
Metric tons to hundredweight
Rice MT * 22.04622
Area & Weight
1 hectare 2.471044 acres
1 kilogram 2.204622 pounds
June 2002 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
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For further information, contact:
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division
Ag Box 1045, Room 6053, South Building
Washington, D.C. 20250-1045
Telephone: [phone] Fax: [phone]
CIRCULAR PUBLICATION
Word Processing Mary Jackson 202-720-0888 [email protected]
Database Manager Mamet Whittington 202-720-0886 [email protected]
Cover Graphics &
Data Reliability Theresa Wright 202-720-8887 [email protected]
GENERAL INFORMATION
Division Director Allen Vandergriff 202-720-0888 [email protected]
Administrative Assistant Mary Jackson 202-720-0888 [email protected]
Acting Deputy Director Eric Wenberg 202-720-0873 [email protected]
Remote Sensing Specialist Brad Doom 202-690-1157 [email protected]
Imagery Library Coordinator Judy Goldich 202-720-1572 [email protected]
USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel 202-720-1280 [email protected]
COMMODITY SPECIFIC INFORMATION
Cotton & Rice Chairperson Ron Roberson 202-720-0879 [email protected]
Grains Chairperson Michelle Greenberg 202-720-7339 [email protected]
Oilseeds Chairperson Paul Provance 202-720-0881 [email protected]
COUNTRY AND REGION SPECIFIC INFORMATION
Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay
& Chile Bob Tetrault 202-690-0130 [email protected]
Brazil Michael Shean 202-720-7366 [email protected]
Australia, Bangladesh,
India, & Pakistan Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135 [email protected]
China, Koreas, Japan, &
Southern Africa Paulette Sandene 202-690-0133 [email protected]
Eastern Europe & North Africa Bryan Purcell 202-690-0138 [email protected]
Former Soviet Union Mark Lindeman 202-690-0143 [email protected]
Mexico & Central America Ron White 202-690-0137 [email protected]
Middle East & Central Africa Curt Reynolds 202-690-0134 [email protected]
Western Europe & Southeast Asia Jim Tringe 202-720-0882 [email protected]
United States Rao Achutuni 202-690-0140 [email protected]
United States & Int’l Weather Carl Gemazio 202-690-0136 [email protected]
June 2002 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
June 2002
SUBJECT PAGE
PRODUCTION BRIEFS
Key 2002/03 Production Briefs
World: Oilseed Production Forecast to Decline in the U.S., but Rise in Foreign
Countries.5
China: Wheat Crop Lower Due to Unfavorable Weather.5
France: Beneficial Growing Conditions Raise EU Wheat Production.5
Romania: Drought Reduces Wheat and Com Production for 2001/02 and 2002/03.6
Hungary: Drought Reduces Wheat and Com Production.6
Australia: Wheat Production Forecast Decrease.6
Key 2001/02 Production Briefs
Brazil: Record Soybean Acreage Forecasted.7
Southern Africa: Lower Com Production Estimated.7
TABLES
Table 1. U.S. Crop Acreage, Yield, and Production.8
Table 2. World Crop Production Summary.9
Tables 3-10. Grains: Area, Yield, and Production
World and Selected Countries and Regions.10-17
Tables 11-17. Oilseeds: Area, Yield, and Production
World and Selected Countries and Regions.18-24
Table 18. Cotton: Area, Yield, and Production
World and Selected Countries and Regions.25
Table 19. Reliability of Production Projections.26
MAPS
Map 1. World Agricultural Weather Highlights.27
Map 2. June Normal Crop Calendar...28
Map 3. July Normal Crop Calendar.29
WEATHER BRIEFS
Canadian Prairies: Cold Weather and Some Dryness Raise Questions for Crop Prospects ...30
Italy: Heavy Rainfall Should Favor Wheat and Summer Crops Across the Po Valley.30
China: Warm Weather and Recent Rainfall Favor Summer Crop Establishment.30
June 2002 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
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PRODUCTION BRIEFS
2002/03 Production Briefs
World: Oilseed Production Forecast to Rise Despite Lower U.S. Output
World total oilseed production for 2002/03 is forecast at 332 million tons, up 8 million or 2 percent
from 2001/02. The United States is expected to go against trend and decline by 1.7 million tons, to
88.2 million. Lower loan rates and changing public farm policies are expected to favor grain crops
relative to soybeans. Total foreign output is forecast at 243.4 million tons, up 9.2 million or 4
percent from 2001/02. Expansion of soybean production in South America is expected to contribute
to the larger world output as will palm kernel production in Southeast Asia. Sunflowerseed
production is expected to rebound from the relatively low levels of 2001/02, while foreign
cottonseed output is expected to decline.
China: Wheat Crop Lower Due to Unfavorable Weather
A combination of drought in the north and excessive rainfall in the south had a negative affect on
China’s 2002/03 wheat crop. Production is estimated at 94.0 million tons, down 2 million or 2
percent last month and equal to last year’s drought-affected crop. China will produce about 87.0
million tons of winter wheat and 7.0 million tons of spring wheat. The estimated yield of 3.76 tons
per hectare is below the 5-year average and down 8 percent from the record yield of 4.1 tons per
hectare set in 1997/98. The estimated area of 25.0 million hectares is down slightly from last year,
based on official National Bureau of Statistics planting intentions.
The winter wheat crop was in generally good condition in April as it approached the heading stage.
Early spring drought depleted soil moisture and stressed the crop in the northern part of the North
China Plain, but moisture conditions in the southern plains and Yangtze Basin were more favorable.
Unusually cool and wet weather dominated eastern China from mid-April through mid-May and
caused development delays, pest and disease outbreaks, and quality problems, especially in the
Yangtze River Basin and southern plains. In the Yellow River Basin, the May rainfall provided
beneficial moisture for the reproducing/filling winter wheat crop but was not enough to erase the
drought. Very hot (90 - 101 F.) and dry weather returned to eastern China after May 15. The drier
weather favored wheat maturing/harvesting in southern areas but stressed immature wheat in the
north. The harvest is now in full swing and will be completed by the end of June.
Spring wheat accounts for about 9-10 percent of total wheat production. Planting and germination
benefited from timely rain, but conditions have become unfavorably dry in parts of the Northeast,
and more rain is needed to support normal development.
France: Beneficial Growing Conditions Raise EU Wheat Production Estimate
France’s 2002/03 total wheat crop is estimated at 38.5 million tons, up 0.5 million from the May
estimate of 38.0 million. Overall EU wheat production is now forecast at 107.5 million tons, up 15.7
million from last year. The increase is due to excellent growing conditions that should translate into
higher yields throughout France’s wheat growing regions. France is the EU’s largest wheat
June 2002 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
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producer, but growing conditions have also been favorable in other major EU producers: Germany,
the United Kingdom, Italy, and Spain. Harvest will begin in late June in southern Europe and
continue through August in the north. Wet weather during harvest could create problems for this
crop, but growing conditions thus far have been generally excellent.
Romania: Drought Reduces Wheat and Corn Production for 2001/02 and 2002/03
Romania’s 2001/02 wheat crop was revised down by 1.2 million tons or 15 percent to 6.7 million,
reflecting recent information gathered from Romanian sources. Romanian wheat production for
2002/03 is estimated at 5.0 million tons, down 0.5 million or 9 percent from last month, and off 1.7
million or 25 percent from last year’s newly revised crop estimate.
Romania’s 2001/02 com crop also was revised down, by 1.8 million tons. Last season’s poor harvest
was the result of severe drought occurring during the 2001/02 summer season (after the wheat
harvest), with the most destruction occurring in the southern and south-eastern areas of the country.
Romanian com production for 2002/03 was estimated at 8.0 million tons, down 0.5 million or 6
percent from last month. This month’s adjustment to the old crop creates a year-to-year increase of
1.0 million tons for 2002/03.
Hungary: Drought Reduces Wheat and Corn Production
Hungary’s wheat production in 2002/03 is estimated at 4.0 million tons, down 0.5 million or 11
percent from last month and down 23 percent or 1.2 million tons from last season’s bumper crop of
5.2 million. The wheat crop grew under a long period of dryness, which has hurt yield prospects.
Hungary’s wheat harvest averages 4.4 million tons.
Hungary’s com production in 2002/03 is estimated at 6.5 million tons, down 0.5 million or 7 percent
from last month, and down 1.1 million from last year’s crop. Area is estimated at 1.2 million
hectares, unchanged from last month. Yield is forecast lower due to an extended period of dryness.
Australia: Wheat Production Forecast Decrease
The 2002/03 wheat crop is forecast at 23.0 million tons, down 1.5 million or 6 percent from last
month, and down 1.0 million or 4 percent from last year. Forecast area is reduced to 12.3 million
hectares, 0.5 million or 4 percent lower than last month and 0.7 million or 5 percent below last year.
Wheat growing areas of Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria, have received significantly
below-normal precipitation during April and May. Many growers are waiting for autumn rains to
begin planting. The optimal planting window will pass later in June; however, the southern areas
can be planted as late as July.
June 2002 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
2001/02 Production Briefs
Brazil: Record Soybean Acreage Forecast
Brazil’s 2001/02 soybean crop remains unchanged this month and is currently estimated at a record
43.5 million tons. Brazil’s official statistics service, EBGE, released new acreage estimates based on
April crop surveys, which indicate an even larger expansion of soybean acreage occurred in 2001/02
than previously believed. IBGE reported that soybean acreage increased over 2.4 million hectares
this year, with one-third of that total occurring in Mato Grosso alone. Total national soybean area is
currently estimated at a record 16.4 million hectares, up 0.5 million from last month, and up 2.4
million or 17 percent from last year’s record level.
Southern Africa - Lower Corn Production Estimated
This month, 2001/02 com production estimates for several southern African countries were revised
downward in response to new information about planted area and the effect of this season’s
unfavorable weather. Stocks levels are very low and grain prices have risen dramatically in the
affected countries. Southern Africa will struggle to provide adequate grain to vulnerable people in
the region, including refugees, urban workers, displaced farm workers, and subsistence farmers.
Zimbabwe’s 2001/02 com crop is estimated at just 500,000 tons, down 66 percent from the poor
crop a year earlier and the lowest output since 1991/92. Many factors contributed to Zimbabwe’s
catastrophic harvest this year: seasonal rainfall was down by 75 percent in many crop areas,
agricultural inputs (fertilizer, fuel, irrigation water) were very costly or unavailable, high-yielding
commercial farmland was taken out of production, and serious economic and political problems
disrupted the agricultural sector. Com production in Zambia is estimated at 620,000 tons in 2001/02,
down 23 percent from a year earlier and the smallest crop since 1997/98. Zambia has suffered from
severe drought for three consecutive years. Com production elsewhere in Southern Africa has also
suffered in 2001/02 and was revised downward this month. In Malawi, estimated com production is
down year-to-year by 10 percent; Swaziland, down 7 percent; Lesotho, down 40 percent and
Botswana down 15 percent.
In contrast, South Africa’s 2001/02 com production increased by 17 percent to an estimated 8.8
million tons due to generally favorable weather and increased area. However, this amount will
not be sufficient to meet the com shortfall in the region.
June 2002 Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Div., FAS, USDA
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