20 Golden Rules for Traders Trading Masters NEW TO TRADING & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS? Click Here SEARCH WIZARDS Home HIT AND RUN THE TECHTRADER Jeff Cooper Harry Boxer Daily Momentum & the Swing Reading The Signals Courses Jeff Cooper has been a Harry Boxer has more Tactics professional trader since than 30 yrs investment Resources 1982 and is the author of and technical analysis three best selling books: Hit experience. He is a and Run I, Hit and Run II, consultant to many Wall POWERFUL and The 5 Day Momentum Street hedge funds and ONLINE YOUR DAILY Method. Cooper's financial large institutional traders. TRADING MARKET markets experience started Harry currently authors COURSE GUIDE in 1981 at Drexel Burnham, daily reports at his From HARD RIGHT EDGE working for his father, a financial website The private hedge fund Technical Trader. manager. 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Click Here THE FANTASY ISLAND REVERSAL WIZARDS By Jeff Cooper TUTORIAL Home The island reversal is a powerful technical tool. However, the classic island reversal, where a stock gaps up to a new relative high but the subsequent session gaps down leaving Daily a high below the prior days low, occurs infrequently. Even given decimalization, the pattern Courses is likely to remain somewhat rare. Tactics Hence, I created the Gilligan's Island in order to capture reversals in the spirit of the one- Resources day island exhaustion pattern. The Gilligan's Island is explained in my first book, Hit and Run Trading. Essentially, it occurs when a stock gaps up to a 60 day high but closes poorly (in the bottom 25% of the range). Gilligan buy signals are a mirror image. YOUR DAILY Now let me introduce you to Gilligan's cousin, Fantasy Island. A Fantasy Island sell MARKET signal occurs when a stock laps or jumps up above the prior days close but below the prior GUIDE days high, scores a new 60 day high on the day, but sells off, closing down on the day in the bottom 25% of the range. (For buys, simply reverse the rules). Due to decimalization, the lap required to generate Fantasy Island should be meaningful, not pennies. I typically want to see at least a 50-cent lap. Featuring There are reversals and then there are reversals. Many tops (and bottoms) are Gilligans or Fantasy Islands, but not all Gilligans or Fantasy Islands are tops (or bottoms). I am going to show you how I determine which signals are meaningful. Sometimes very meaningful. The important thing to remember is that stocks turn on a dime; most trades cannot. The sudden Interactive reversal of strongly trending stocks often leaves investors stranded and money managers Trading shipwrecked. Hence, then name Gilligan's Island. Its sometimes less conspicuous relative, Picks the Fantasy Island, can leave market participants equally marooned. PICKS, CHARTS, SCANS, IDEAS & On December 6th, 2001, Imclone Systems (IMCL), one of the leading biotech stocks, PROFITS lapped open and ran up to score a new 60-day high only to reverse by the end of the day. A Check out look at the daily chart shows that IMCL closed at the low of the day and substantially below MORNING the prior days close after lapping up and hitting a new 60-day high, setting up the Fantasy TRADER Island sell. Of course, as always, follow-through is required to confirm a signal. Bearishly, the NOW! reversal was also a Lightning RodTM (LROD) as well as a Soup NaziTM. The Soup Nazi, as and in "No soup for you!" (from the character on the Seinfeld show) occurs when a stock makes EVERY MARKET a new 14-day high, pulls back and fails on a test of that high. Keep in mind that the previous DAY! 14 day high to a test failure must have occurred at least 4 sessions earlier in order to avoid stepping in front of an obvious continuation move. When multiple signals occur, there is a greater than average likelihood of the signal being successful. In this case, we had three reversal signals: A Fantasy Island, a Soup Nazi, and an LROD. When multiple signals occur, there is the likelihood for a larger than average move to play out. When a signal (or multiple signals) occurs at a natural inflection point in time and price, often a major trend develops. Let's explore what I mean by a natural inflection point in time and price. W.D. Gann, the legendary trader and market conceptualist, believe that all tops and bottoms of consequence were mathematically related, or vibrated off, each other. He believed that a cause and effect relationship existed between tops and bottom of various durations much in the same way a rock thrown into a pond corresponds to its counterpart ripples. One of the tools Gann used to observe the vibrations between tops and bottoms is the Square of Nine chart or what I refer to as the Wheel of Price and Time. The square of the first odd number, 3, equals nine and completes the first square, or cycle, in the Square of Nine chart. Hence, the name Square of Nine chart. Since the number 1 squared equals itself, it is not counted. The Square of Nine is essentially a grid of numbers starting with 1 in the center that spirals out in clockwise motion forming a vortex, or a 9, similar to the Milky Way or a nautilus shell. As I mentioned, the first cycle, circle, or square around the center is complete with the number nine. Once you find the 'zero' point from which stocks' ripples emanate, the geometry for potential highs and lows in the future can be determined. It is important to keep in mind, however, that one must not only use the all-time highs and lows on the yearly chart, but also the closing highs and lows on the daily, weekly, and monthly chart when projecting price cycles. A look at the weekly chart of IMCL shows an important low in March of 2001 at 23.87. 23 is on the important cardinal cross of the Square of Nine chart (the north to south and east to west vectors). The weekly chart shows that one cycle up, or 360 degrees plus 90 degrees (for a total of 450 degrees) equals 53 on the same vector as March 21st and marked the closing weekly high in June of 2001. June is 3 months or 90 degrees of the year from March. Ninety-degree movements in time and price are a natural area to look for support, resistance, or in some cases, possible acceleration. It is the behavior after 90 degrees of growth that must be observed. As you can see, opposition the June time frame or 180 degrees in time from June, in December 2001 marked the termination of the advance from the March 2001 low. A period that consumed nine months (270 degrees of the year - 2 plus 7 equals 9). Notice that, bullishly, IMCL initially rallied past 46, which represented the first cycle of 360 degrees from low. That suggested that after a pullback, a further advance might be expected. The initial 46 resistance pretty much contained the nine-week pullback. Interestingly, for that nine-week period, IMCL never closed below 46 on the weekly closing chart by more than a point and change. On those occasions, the closes were as follows: 45.99 on the week ending June 22, 2001. 45.50 on the week ending July 13, 2001. 45.81 on
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