Table Of Content

WhyBother? Why do vote-suppression efforts sometimes fail? Why does police repression of demonstrators sometimes turn localized protests into massive,nationalmovements?Howdopoliticiansandactivistsmanip- ulate people’s emotions to get them involved? The authors of Why Bother?offeranewtheoryofwhypeopletakepartincollectiveaction in politics and test it in the contexts of voting and protesting. They develop the idea that just as there are costs of participation in politics,therearealsocostsofabstention–intrinsicandpsychologicalbut no less real for that. That abstention can be psychically costly helps explain real-world patterns that are anomalies for existing theories, suchasthatsometimesincreasesincostsofparticipationarefollowed bymoreparticipation,notless.Thebookdrawsonawealthofsurvey data, interviews, and experimental results from a range of countries, includingtheUnitedStates,Britain,Brazil,Sweden,andTurkey. S.ErdemAytaçisanassistantprofessorintheDepartmentofInterna- tionalRelationsatKoçUniversityinIstanbul,Turkey.Hereceivedhis Ph.D.inpoliticalsciencefromYaleUniversityin2014.Aytaç’sresearch interests lie in political behavior with a focus on democratic account- ability and political participation. His previous work has appeared in the Journal of Politics, Comparative Political Behavior, British Jour- nalofPoliticalScience,PoliticalBehavior,andtheJournalofConflict Resolution, among other journals. He is the recipient of the 2016 Young Scientist Award of Science Academy (Turkey) and the 2018 SakıpSabancıInternationalResearchAward. Susan C. Stokes is the Tiffany and Margaret Blake Distinguished Ser- viceProfessorofPoliticalScienceattheUniversityofChicago.Sheisa memberoftheAmericanAcademyofArtsandSciencesandpastchair oftheYalePoliticalScienceDepartment.SheistheauthorofMandates and Democracy: Neoliberalism by Surprise in Latin America (Cam- bridge)andco-authorofBrokers,Voters,andClientelism:ThePuzzle ofDistributivePolitics(Cambridge). CambridgeStudiesinComparativePolitics GeneralEditors KathleenThelenMassachusettsInstituteofTechnology ErikWibbelsDukeUniversity AssociateEditors CatherineBooneLondonSchoolofEconomics ThadDunningUniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley AnnaGrzymala-BusseStanfordUniversity TorbenIversenHarvardUniversity StathisKalyvasYaleUniversity MargaretLeviStanfordUniversity HelenMilnerPrincetonUniversity FrancesRosenbluthYaleUniversity SusanStokesUniversityofChicago TariqThachilVanderbiltUniversity SeriesFounder PeterLangeDukeUniversity OtherBooksintheSeries ChristopherAdolph,Bankers,Bureaucrats,andCentralBankPolitics: TheMythofNeutrality MichaelAlbertus,AutocracyandRedistribution:ThePoliticsofLandReform SantiagoAnria,WhenMovementsBecomeParties:TheBolivianMASin ComparativePerspective BenW.Ansell,FromtheBallottotheBlackboard:TheRedistributive PoliticalEconomyofEducation BenW.Ansell,DavidJ.Samuels,InequalityandDemocratization: AnElite-CompetitionApproach LeonardoR.Arriola,Multi-EthnicCoalitionsinAfrica:Business FinancingofOppositionElectionCampaigns DavidAusten-Smith,JeffryA.Frieden,MiriamA.Golden,KarlOveMoene,and AdamPrzeworski,eds.,SelectedWorksofMichaelWallerstein:ThePolitical EconomyofInequality,Unions,andSocialDemocracy AndyBaker,TheMarketandtheMassesinLatinAmerica:PolicyReformand ConsumptioninLiberalizingEconomies Continuedaftertheindex Why Bother? Rethinking Participation in Elections and Protests S. ERDEM AYTAÇ KoçUniversity SUSAN C. STOKES UniversityofChicago UniversityPrintingHouse,CambridgeCB28BS,UnitedKingdom OneLibertyPlaza,20thFloor,NewYork,NY10006,USA 477WilliamstownRoad,PortMelbourne,VIC3207,Australia 314–321,3rdFloor,Plot3,SplendorForum,JasolaDistrictCentre,NewDelhi–110025,India 79AnsonRoad,#06–04/06,Singapore079906 CambridgeUniversityPressispartoftheUniversityofCambridge. ItfurtherstheUniversity’smissionbydisseminatingknowledgeinthepursuitof education,learning,andresearchatthehighestinternationallevelsofexcellence. www.cambridge.org Informationonthistitle:www.cambridge.org/9781108475228 DOI:10.1017/9781108690416 (cid:2)c S.ErdemAytaçandSusanC.Stokes2019 Thispublicationisincopyright.Subjecttostatutoryexception andtotheprovisionsofrelevantcollectivelicensingagreements, noreproductionofanypartmaytakeplacewithoutthewritten permissionofCambridgeUniversityPress. Firstpublished2019 PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmericabySheridanBooks,Inc. AcataloguerecordforthispublicationisavailablefromtheBritishLibrary. LibraryofCongressCataloging-in-PublicationData Names:Aytaç,S.Erdem,1980–author.|Stokes,SusanCarol,author. Title:Whybother?:rethinkingparticipationinelectionsandprotests/ S.ErdemAytaç,KoçUniversity,SusanC.Stokes,UniversityofChicago. Description:NewYork:CambridgeUniversityPress,[2018]| Series:Cambridgestudiesincomparativepolitics| Includesbibliographicalreferencesandindex. Identifiers:LCCN2018035529|ISBN9781108475228 Subjects:LCSH:Politicalparticipation.|Voterturnout.|Voting–Abstention.| Votingresearch.|Protestmovements–Politicalaspects. Classification:LCCJF799.A932018|DDC323/.042–dc23 LCrecordavailableathttps://lccn.loc.gov/2018035529 ISBN978-1-108-47522-8Hardback ISBN978-1-108-46594-6Paperback CambridgeUniversityPresshasnoresponsibilityforthepersistenceoraccuracyof URLSforexternalorthird-partyinternetwebsitesreferredtointhispublication anddoesnotguaranteethatanycontentonsuchwebsitesis,orwillremain, accurateorappropriate. Erdem: For my family. Susan: For Lewyn and Arlo, future participants. Contents ListofFigures pageviii ListofTables ix PrefaceandAcknowledgments xi 1 Introduction:RethinkingPoliticalParticipation 1 2 TheoriesofVoterParticipation:AReviewandaNewApproach 13 3 TestingtheCostlyAbstentionTheoryofTurnout 37 4 TheoriesofProtestParticipation:AReviewandaNewApproach 68 5 TestingtheCostlyAbstentionTheoryofProtestParticipation 83 6 TheEmotionalOriginsofCollectiveAction 103 7 Conclusions:Criticisms,Extensions,andDemocraticTheory 128 Bibliography 137 Index 150 vii Figures 3.1 Turnout in the US presidential and midterm congressional elections,1960–2016 page39 3.2 Respondents’assessmentsofchancesforapresidentialtieinthe UnitedStates 43 3.3 Distribution of responses to the outcome question in the Turnoutexperiment 49 3.4 Theaveragelikelihoodofvotingacrosstreatmentconditionsin theTurnoutexperiment 50 3.5 Negative affect emotions across experimental groups in the Abstentionexperiment 55 3.6 Negative affect emotions across experimental groups in the (Important,Close)electiongroupoftheAbstentionexperiment 56 3.7 The average likelihood of voting across treatment conditions, unweightedandweighteddata 66 3.8 Negative affect emotions across experimental groups in the Abstentionexperiment,weighteddata 67 4.1 The impact of repression on the costs of abstention and participation 81 6.1 Bounce-backeffectamongtheunemployedintheUnitedStates 105 6.2 Unemploymentrateandproportionofeconomy-relatedwords inpresidentialchallengers’ nominationacceptance speeches in theUnitedStates,1976–2016 107 6.3 Istanbul2015survey:imagesusedintheRepressiontreatment 116 viii Tables 2.1 CorrelatesofturnoutinBritainandSweden–BESandSNES 2010 page15 3.1 SetupoftheTurnoutexperiment 49 3.2 TreatmentvignettesintheAbstentionexperiment 53 3.3 ExperimentalconditionsandvignettesintheDutyexperiment 58 3.4 ManipulationchecksfortheDutyexperiment 59 3.5 AveragetreatmenteffectsintheDutyexperiment 60 3.6 Viewsoncivicdutyversusdutytoabstain 61 3.7 Turnout among the majority and minority groups in the Groupturnoutexperiment 63 3.8 Turnout, Abstention, and Group turnout experiments – Sampledescriptives 65 3.9 Dutyexperiment–sampledescriptives 65 5.1 DatasourcesinTurkey,Brazil,andUkraine 86 5.2 Protesters’goalsaccordingtoparticipantsandnonparticipants, Istanbul 88 5.3 Protesters’goalsaccordingtoparticipantsandnonparticipants, SãoPaulo 89 5.4 Protesters’motivations,Istanbul 90 5.5 Reasonsforjoiningtheprotests,SãoPaulo 91 5.6 Reasonsforjoiningtheprotests,Kiev 91 5.7 Istanbul:averagetreatmenteffects 100 5.8 SãoPaulo:averagetreatmenteffects 101 5.9 Kiev:averagetreatmenteffects 102 6.1 Experimental treatment vignettes in the Unemployment experiment 108 6.2 AveragetreatmenteffectsintheUnemploymentexperiment 110 6.3 Beingangryabouttheeconomyandturnout—BES2010 112 6.4 BeingangryaboutimmigrationorthewarinAfghanistanand turnout—BES2010 113 ix x ListofTables 6.5 Beingangryaboutpartiesandturnout—SNES2010 114 6.6 Outcome questions in the Istanbul 2015 Repression experiment:potentialmediators 118 6.7 Averagetreatmenteffectsonwillingnesstoprotest 119 6.8 Averagetreatmenteffectsonpotentialmediators 120 6.9 Mediation analysis of the impact of repression on protest participation 123 6.10 Istanbul 2015 Repression experiment: respondent characteristics 126