Why Airplanes Crash: Aviation Safety in a Changing World

217 Pages·1992·10.17 MB·English

by  Clinton V. Oster Jr.

Why Airplanes Crash
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Why Airplanes Crash
Aviation Safety
in a Changing World
CLINTON V. OSTER, JR.
JOHN S. STRONG
C. KURTZORN
New York Oxford
OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS
1992
Oxford University Press
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Copyright © 1992 by Oxford University Press, Inc.
Published by Oxford University Press, Inc.
200 Madison Avenue, New York, New York 10016
Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced,
stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means,
electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise,
without the prior permission of Oxford University Press.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Oster, Clinton V., Jr.
Why airplanes crash: aviation safety in a changing world
Clinton V. Oster, Jr., John S. Strong, C. Kurt Zorn
p. cm. Includes Index
ISBN 0-19-507223-5
1. Aeronautics—Accidents.
2. Aeronautics—United States—Accidents.
3. Aeronautics—Canada—Accidents.
I. Strong, John S. II. Zorn, C. Kurt. III. Title
TL553.S.073 1992 363.12'41—dc20
91-33818
1 3 5 7 9 8 6 4 2
Printed in the United States of America
on acid-free paper
We dedicate this book to John R. Meyer of Harvard University —
scholar, professor, mentor, colleague, and valued friend. For
many years, his example and encouragement have prompted us
to think deeply about the many issues in the relationship between
business and government.
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Preface
This book has its roots in two research projects that involved the three
authors. The Harvard Airline Deregulation Study, which began in 1979,
resulted in three books on the airline industry. During this research,
questions about effects of deregulation on safety were raised, in particu-
lar the safety performance of commuter airlines and new entrant carriers.
The second project involved participation in the President's Commis-
sion on Aviation Safety, which was established in 1987 to provide a
comprehensive study of U.S. airline safety. Clinton Oster served as
research director for the Commission, and John Strong and C. Kurt Zorn
served as consultants to the study. The Commission's April 1988 report
provided a review of many of the public policy issues concerning airline
safety and issued recommendations, many of which are in place today.
Much of the research and analysis presented in this book was begun
during that time. The authors would like to acknowledge the many
participants in that effort; we hope that many of their ideas and concerns
are represented in this book.
Parts of this book are related to other research or projects undertaken
by the authors. Much of the analysis of the Canadian air safety record is
based on work done by Clinton Oster as part of a project conducted by
Sypher: Mueller International. Parts of the analysis of international air
safety are related to John Strong's work with Garuda Indonesia Air-
lines, under contract through the Harvard Institute for International
Development. The Transportation Research Board of the National
Academy of Sciences Study of Air Passenger Service and Safety Since
Deregulation, on which Oster served as a commission member and
Strong as a consultant, was helpful in clarifying and sharpening many
of the issues raised here.
This book would not have been possible without the extensive help of
many people in the aviation community. In particular we would like to
thank Stan Smith of the National Transportation Safety Board in Wash-
ington, D.C., for his many efforts in helping us obtain, understand, and
viii PREFACE
analyze the vast amount of aviation accident data. Olof Fritsch of the
International Civil Aviation Organization was very helpful in guiding
us through international aviation data. Gerry Cohen, Tom Richardson,
Cal Watson, Earl Weener and Peter Wheeler of Boeing provided valu-
able assistance, ideas, and information. Also helpful were discussions
with Peter Potocki de Montalk of Airbus Industrie; Michel Pacull, Hugues
Subra de Salafa, and Jacques Troyes of Aerospatiale; Desmond Charles,
Chris Davies, Ted Talbot, and Roger Taplin of British Aerospace; and
Derrell Brown, Max Klotzsche, Mike Newman, and David Swain of
McDonnell-Douglas. Jim Landry of the Air Transport Association in
Washington helped provide industry data and helpful comments.
Many persons reviewed all or part of the manuscript, provided com-
ments, and suggested improvements that have contributed to the final
version. In particular we would like to acknowledge Ben Berman of the
National Transportation Safety Board; Steve Godwin of the Transporta-
tion Research Board; Richard Golaszewski of Gellman Research Associ-
ates; Michael Levine of Yale; Jim Marr of MIT; John R. Meyer of Harvard;
Don Pickrell of the U.S. Department of Transportation; Nancy Rose of
MIT; and Gordon Hamilton, Robin Monroe, and David Biggs of
Sypher:Mueller International. Herb Addison of Oxford University Press
and the anonymous referees who reviewed our manuscript also are due
many thanks.
Several institutions and individuals provided research and technical
support. At Indiana University, the Transportation Research Center of
the School of Public and Environmental Affairs and the School of Busi-
ness provided a base for the project. Darrell Spears of the Indiana
University Computer Center was essential in helping prepare and ana-
lyze data. Donna McLean and Paula Wendell provided excellent re-
search assistance. Heather Ratliff was helpful on general aviation topics
in the later stages of the project. Steffanie Curry and Cheryl Picou
managed to keep track of many drafts and keep the production of the
book running smoothly. Cynthia Mahigian Moorhead provided able
assistance in the production of camera-ready copy of the final manu-
script.
The School of Business Administration of The College of William and
Mary provided ongoing research support for John Strong. The Thomas
Jefferson Program in Public Policy at William and Mary participated in
the effort through its sponsorship of a conference on the airline industry
in November 1990. Carole Chappell, Melissa Reagan, Nancy Smith and
Phyllis Viands provided cheerful staff support. During the fall of 1989,
the Center for Business and Government at the Kennedy School of
Government, Harvard University provided research support for John
Strong, much of which was devoted to aviation safety.
We would like to thank our wives Christine, Carol, and Lisa, and our
PREFACE ix
children Heather, Graham, Kala, and Kersten for their support and
perseverance through years of research, travel, and countless discus-
sion on airlines and aviation safety.
Finally, of course the conclusions and opinions are those of the au-
thors and do not necessarily reflect those of individuals or institutions
that have provided us with support or assistance.
Eloomington, Ind C. V. O., Jr.
Williamsburg, Va. ]. S. S.
Bloomington, Ind. C. K. Z.
November, 1991