Who’s Driving Electric Cars: Understanding Consumer Adoption and Use of Plug-in Electric Cars PDF
Preview Who’s Driving Electric Cars: Understanding Consumer Adoption and Use of Plug-in Electric Cars
Lecture Notes in Mobility Marcello Contestabile Gil Tal Thomas Turrentine Editors Who’s Driving Electric Cars Understanding Consumer Adoption and Use of Plug-in Electric Cars Lecture Notes in Mobility Series Editor Gereon Meyer, VDI/VDE Innovation und Technik GmbH, Berlin, Germany More information about this series at http://www.springer.com/series/11573 Marcello Contestabile Gil Tal (cid:129) (cid:129) Thomas Turrentine Editors ’ Who s Driving Electric Cars Understanding Consumer Adoption and Use of Plug-in Electric Cars 123 Editors Marcello Contestabile Gil Tal Centrefor Environmental Policy Institute of Transportation Studies Imperial CollegeLondon University of California, Davis London,UK Davis, CA,USA KingAbdullah Petroleum Studies andResearch Center Riyadh, SaudiArabia ThomasTurrentine Institute of Transportation Studies University of California, Davis Davis, CA,USA ISSN 2196-5544 ISSN 2196-5552 (electronic) Lecture Notesin Mobility ISBN978-3-030-38381-7 ISBN978-3-030-38382-4 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-38382-4 ©SpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG2020 Thisworkissubjecttocopyright.AllrightsarereservedbythePublisher,whetherthewholeorpart of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission orinformationstorageandretrieval,electronicadaptation,computersoftware,orbysimilarordissimilar methodologynowknownorhereafterdeveloped. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publicationdoesnotimply,evenintheabsenceofaspecificstatement,thatsuchnamesareexemptfrom therelevantprotectivelawsandregulationsandthereforefreeforgeneraluse. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, expressed or implied, with respect to the material contained hereinorforanyerrorsoromissionsthatmayhavebeenmade.Thepublisherremainsneutralwithregard tojurisdictionalclaimsinpublishedmapsandinstitutionalaffiliations. ThisSpringerimprintispublishedbytheregisteredcompanySpringerNatureSwitzerlandAG Theregisteredcompanyaddressis:Gewerbestrasse11,6330Cham,Switzerland Foreword Thisbookistimely—andneeded.Technologywillcontinuetoimprove,andbattery costs will continue to drop. Engineers are making impressive progress. What remains most uncertain is consumer behavior and policy. Which consumers in which situations will buy which types of electric vehicles—battery and plug-in hybrid vehicles, as well as fuel cell electric vehicles? And what might or could policymakers do to accelerate sales—for small and large electric vehicles? The future of electric vehicles is firmly linked to policy and behavior. Asaresearcherandpolicymaker,Icloselyfollowelectricvehiclehappeningsin China, Europe, and Japan and advise many car companies. For a variety of eco- nomic, environmental, and political reasons, it is crystal clear to me that electric vehicleswillreplacevirtuallyallcombustionenginecarsandprobablymosttrucks. It is a question of when, not if. EV market shares are increasing everywhere, automakersarerollingoutanexpandingarrayofelectricmodels,supplychainsare inplace,andgovernmentsinalmostallmajorcarmarketshaveadoptedaggressive policies. Within this sweeping transition are many hugely critical details, though. What typesofvehiclesatwhatpriceswillbemostcompellingtobuyers?Howimportant are range anxiety and public availability of electric chargers? How do consumers trade off less cost for greater range? We are all different, of course. How do these behaviors and attitudes vary across young and old, urban and rural, and male and female,aswellasacrossdifferentpersonalitytypes?Shouldautomakersemphasize pure battery EVs, or plug-inhybridEVs—or even fuel cell EVs? And how should policymakers respond? What types of incentives might they offer and when? And howmuchshouldtheyinvestinpubliccharging?Whereshouldchargersbeplaced and should they be fast chargers? None of us know exactly how all this will play out. But the more we learn and understand, the smarter our policy and investment decisions will be. What we do know, as indicated by many authors in this book, is that the transition will be slow, unless the following happens. v vi Foreword Challenge #1: Battery (and hydrogen and fuel cell) costs must continue to fall. Today’s EVs are still considerably more expensive to produce than gasoline cars, even with plummeting battery costs—especially so in the case of larger SUVs and pickup trucks. Automakers price today’s EVs below cost to sell them, satisfy governmentmandates,andhelpmeetaggressivefuelefficiencyandgreenhousegas emission standards. Challenge #2: Political will. Automakers are making massive investments in EVs. But apart from Tesla and some Chinese manufacturers, the large automakers are mostly producing just enough to satisfy government policies and build initial supplychains.Politiciansandregulatorsneedtoboostawholerangeofpolicies— fuel economy and greenhouse gas emission regulations, consumer purchase incentives,morevehiclechargers—tosignaltobothautomakersandconsumersthat the nations are resolutely committed to electrifying most or all vehicles. Challenge #3: Consumer embrace of EVs. Consumers are cautious about pur- chasing expensive, new products. Even when EV prices are lower than for com- parablegasolinecars—assometimes occursbecauseofregulatorydemands—sales can be slow. The authors of this book provide state-of-the-art insights into con- sumer behavior and much useful guidance and insight about which policies are most effective. How exactly the transition to the battery, plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell electric vehicles will unfold is unknown and unknowable. It will vary greatly from one region to another. Some strategies and paths are more expensive and complicated than others. But generally, the best policy approach is to provide substantial incentives to consumers initially, assure that a network of public chargers and hydrogen stations is prominently accessible, impose regulations and policies on automakers to motivate investments and sales, and be adaptive and agile as con- sumer preferences, technological innovations, and industry investments evolve. Authors of this book provide a solid understanding of consumers needed to inform and design policies. While useful insights can be gained from previous experiences with other technologies such as renewable energy, it is essential to recognize that the EV market is highly heterogeneous, that early adoption is not necessarilyagoodguideforwhatwillfollow,andthatmarketsuccesswillrelyon policies that are responsive to the complexities of consumer behavior. The authors of this book test their insights by scanning and evaluating experi- ences around the world. They lay the foundation for crafting well-designed mea- sures that are adaptive and durable enough to bridge the transition to a sustainable market. Davis, CA, USA Daniel Sperling October 2019 Daniel Sperling is the author of Three Revolutions: Steering Automated, Shared, and Electric VehiclestoaBetterFuture(2018).HeisalsoFoundingDirectoroftheInstituteofTransportation StudiesandBluePlanetPrizeProfessorofEngineeringandEnvironmentalScienceandPolicyat theUniversityofCalifornia,Davis.HeisamemberoftheCaliforniaAirResourcesBoard. Acknowledgements We gratefully acknowledge the support of the King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center (KAPSARC) through its sponsorship of the Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Technology Collaboration Programme (HEV-TCP) of the International Energy Agency. As a sponsor of the HEV-TCP, KAPSARC initiated and led the Task 36 “Consumer Adoption and Use of EVs” of which this book is the main deliverable. We also acknowledge the kind support of the HEV-TCP members and secre- tariat to Task 36 and this book. vii Contents Introduction: Understanding the Development of the Market for Electric Vehicles . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Marcello Contestabile and Thomas Turrentine North America Electric Cars in California: Policy and Behavior Perspectives . . . . . . . . 11 Gil Tal, Ken Kurani, Alan Jenn, Debapriya Chakraborty, Scott Hardman and Dahlia Garas WhatConversationsBetweenPEVOwnersandOwnersofNon-PEVs in California Tell Us About Sustaining a Transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Ken Kurani Gasoline Savings from Electric Vehicles in the US. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45 Tamara L. Sheldon and Rubal Dua The Present and Future Market for PEVs in Canada: Evidence from a Mixed-Method Research Program . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Jonn Axsen and Zoe Long Europe Norway—The World Leader in BEV Adoption . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 Erik Figenbaum Plug-in (Hybrid) Electric Vehicle Adoption in the Netherlands: Lessons Learned. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 Rick Wolbertus and Robert van den Hoed What Can Driving Patterns Reveal About the Suitability of PEVs in Sweden? Analysis and Policy Implications. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 Frances Sprei ix x Contents Beyond Consumer Innovators: Adoption of Plug-in Vehicles by Mainstream Consumers in the U.K. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 Stephen Skippon and George Beard Electric Vehicle Adoption in Germany: Current Knowledge and Future Research . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189 Patrick Plötz and Elisabeth Dütschke China China’s Booming Plug-in Electric Vehicle Market—How Will It Continue?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215 Shiqi Ou, Zhenhong Lin, Xin He, Steven Przesmitzki, Zhixin Wu, Jihu Zheng, Renzhi Lv and Liang Qi Plug-in Electric Vehicle Market Research on Consumer in Six Cities in China . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 257 Yan Xing, Gil Tal and Yunshi Wang Conclusions Lessons Learned and Future Prospects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 289 Marcello Contestabile
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